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Sunday NFL 10/19..........
Is this the breakout week? Tune in Sunday night to see! Here we go.........
5 STAR: San Diego (+5.5) OVER CLEVELAND
The 0-5 Chargers are actually in a pretty good technical spot this week. They are coming off of a bye so they have had two weeks to get ready for this match up with the Browns. Win less teams in week five or later that are coming off of a bye week are 15-2 against the spread since 1992. Also, Underdogs after five or more consecutive losses and are winless on the season are a solid 35-13 against the spread over the last 10 seasons, while home favorites that have covered the spread in two out of their last three games, in October games are only 15-40 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. The Chargers are 22-8 against the spread versus poor offensive teams that are averaging 285 or less yards per game since 1992 and they are 22-10 against the spread in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992. Cleveland has not played their best football at home so far this season and this could be a good spot for the Chargers to pick up their first win if the Browns take them lightly. Take the points!
3 STAR: Philadelphia (+3) OVER NY GIANTS
Both of these teams have been disappointing, but I look for the Eagles to come away with the win in this match up. The Giants are totally out of sync and Kerry Collins has looked terrible, I don't look for the Giants offense to wake up today either against the Eagles defense. The Eagles are 10-3 against the spread when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons, 6-1 against the spread in road games after one or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 against the spread in road games off a road loss by 3 points or less since 1992. The Eagles have won three out of the last four meetings between these two teams and I look for them to get the win here again!
3 STAR: CINCINNATI (+2.5) OVER Baltimore
This line looks very fishy considering that the Ravens were a 6.5 point favorite last week at Arizona, a team that had a similar record to the Bengals. I can see the public jumping all over the Ravens here, but I like the Bengals to pull out the win. With the exception of the first game of the season, Cincinnati had been in every game that they have played and are only a few plays away from being 4-1 when you consider that three of their four loses are by a touchdown or less. I look for a strong effort from the Bengals coming out of the bye week, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I am not impressed with the Ravens offense with Boller at quarterback and I look for the Bengals to finally force some turnovers and teams after four consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers are 47-18 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Also, The Ravens are only 1-8 against the spread after having won three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. Take the home dog here!
3 STAR: Washington (+3) OVER BUFFALO
I just can't see the Bills laying points here. Buffalo is struggling, especially on the offensive side of the ball where they have had no running game and they will either be without star receiver Eric Moulds or have him at less that 100%. The Skins are only 3-3 but two off their three losses were by two and three points, and last weeks game against Tampa Bay was close until their third quarter breakdown. Washington is 22-7 against the spread versus poor rushing teams that are averaging 90 or less rushing yards per game on the season since 1992 and the Bills are only 2-8 against the spread in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. Look for the Skins to get the win here!
2 STAR: New England (+5.5) OVER MIAMI
Both of these teams have been hot against the spread with Miami covering four straight and New England covering five straight games. But I have to take the points here in what should be a close game that might come down to a field goal deciding the outcome. Miami forced five turnovers last week against the Jaguars which allowed them to pull out the victory last week, they might not be so lucky here, as they are only 1-8 against the spread after a game where they forced five or more turnovers since 1992. New England is 8-2 against the spread off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 10-0 against the spread after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games over the last 3 seasons. I look for the Pats to get the cover here also!
2 STAR: Denver (+3.5) OVER MINNESOTA
Daunte Culpepper returns for the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings when they host the Broncos this week, but that is not necessarily a good thing. The Vikings were rolling with Frerotte at QB and Randy Moss was very happy because Frerotte would throw the ball in this direction and let him make a play, something that Culpepper does not like to do. Also I think the bye week came at a bad time for Minnesota, they were rolling at 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread, I think the time off might have slowed down their momentum here. Denver will be without Jake Plummer for a while, but Veteran Steve Beuerlein is a solid backup and should be able to throw the ball with some success against the Vikings secondary. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a poor passing defense that is allowing a completion percentage of 60% or worse on the season are only 106-170 against the spread over the last ten seasons. The Broncos almost always do well against the good teams in the league, as they are 22-8 against the spread when playing against an excellent team that has a winning percentage of 75% or better since 1992. Also, road underdogs after one or more consecutive wins in the first half of the season are 88-48 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take the points here.
OVERALL RECORD
16-26-2 (-37.70 UNITS)
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: San Diego (+5.5) OVER CLEVELAND
The 0-5 Chargers are actually in a pretty good technical spot this week. They are coming off of a bye so they have had two weeks to get ready for this match up with the Browns. Win less teams in week five or later that are coming off of a bye week are 15-2 against the spread since 1992. Also, Underdogs after five or more consecutive losses and are winless on the season are a solid 35-13 against the spread over the last 10 seasons, while home favorites that have covered the spread in two out of their last three games, in October games are only 15-40 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. The Chargers are 22-8 against the spread versus poor offensive teams that are averaging 285 or less yards per game since 1992 and they are 22-10 against the spread in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992. Cleveland has not played their best football at home so far this season and this could be a good spot for the Chargers to pick up their first win if the Browns take them lightly. Take the points!
3 STAR: Philadelphia (+3) OVER NY GIANTS
Both of these teams have been disappointing, but I look for the Eagles to come away with the win in this match up. The Giants are totally out of sync and Kerry Collins has looked terrible, I don't look for the Giants offense to wake up today either against the Eagles defense. The Eagles are 10-3 against the spread when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons, 6-1 against the spread in road games after one or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 against the spread in road games off a road loss by 3 points or less since 1992. The Eagles have won three out of the last four meetings between these two teams and I look for them to get the win here again!
3 STAR: CINCINNATI (+2.5) OVER Baltimore
This line looks very fishy considering that the Ravens were a 6.5 point favorite last week at Arizona, a team that had a similar record to the Bengals. I can see the public jumping all over the Ravens here, but I like the Bengals to pull out the win. With the exception of the first game of the season, Cincinnati had been in every game that they have played and are only a few plays away from being 4-1 when you consider that three of their four loses are by a touchdown or less. I look for a strong effort from the Bengals coming out of the bye week, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I am not impressed with the Ravens offense with Boller at quarterback and I look for the Bengals to finally force some turnovers and teams after four consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers are 47-18 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Also, The Ravens are only 1-8 against the spread after having won three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. Take the home dog here!
3 STAR: Washington (+3) OVER BUFFALO
I just can't see the Bills laying points here. Buffalo is struggling, especially on the offensive side of the ball where they have had no running game and they will either be without star receiver Eric Moulds or have him at less that 100%. The Skins are only 3-3 but two off their three losses were by two and three points, and last weeks game against Tampa Bay was close until their third quarter breakdown. Washington is 22-7 against the spread versus poor rushing teams that are averaging 90 or less rushing yards per game on the season since 1992 and the Bills are only 2-8 against the spread in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. Look for the Skins to get the win here!
2 STAR: New England (+5.5) OVER MIAMI
Both of these teams have been hot against the spread with Miami covering four straight and New England covering five straight games. But I have to take the points here in what should be a close game that might come down to a field goal deciding the outcome. Miami forced five turnovers last week against the Jaguars which allowed them to pull out the victory last week, they might not be so lucky here, as they are only 1-8 against the spread after a game where they forced five or more turnovers since 1992. New England is 8-2 against the spread off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 10-0 against the spread after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games over the last 3 seasons. I look for the Pats to get the cover here also!
2 STAR: Denver (+3.5) OVER MINNESOTA
Daunte Culpepper returns for the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings when they host the Broncos this week, but that is not necessarily a good thing. The Vikings were rolling with Frerotte at QB and Randy Moss was very happy because Frerotte would throw the ball in this direction and let him make a play, something that Culpepper does not like to do. Also I think the bye week came at a bad time for Minnesota, they were rolling at 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread, I think the time off might have slowed down their momentum here. Denver will be without Jake Plummer for a while, but Veteran Steve Beuerlein is a solid backup and should be able to throw the ball with some success against the Vikings secondary. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a poor passing defense that is allowing a completion percentage of 60% or worse on the season are only 106-170 against the spread over the last ten seasons. The Broncos almost always do well against the good teams in the league, as they are 22-8 against the spread when playing against an excellent team that has a winning percentage of 75% or better since 1992. Also, road underdogs after one or more consecutive wins in the first half of the season are 88-48 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take the points here.
OVERALL RECORD
16-26-2 (-37.70 UNITS)
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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