Superbowl Projections Week 7 (Excel)

[dave T]

My picks for Week 7:

NCAA: WISC +3.5, SDSU +14.5
NFL: RAVENS +3.0 -120, BEARS -3.0 -125, SEAHAWKS +10.5
4-TEAM (+22.70): WISC ML, SO MISS ML, SDSU +14.5, COL U -3.0
4-TEAM: GEORGIA -14.0, N.CAR -6.0, MIZZOU +6.0, LSU -3.0 -125


NFL Line for Week 7 (Excel, using the average of 3 models: Power Ratings, Off/Def Yards Per Point, and PF/PA with strength of schedule. Does not factor in key injuries):

Ten -10 @ KC
BUF -3 vs Sdg
Pit -5 @ CIN
MIA -4' vs Bal
Dal -12 @ STL
CHI -7 vs Min
CAR -3 vs Nor
HOU -8 vs Det
Nyj -3 @ OAK
GRB -3 vs Ind
NYG -12 vs Sfo
WAS -6' vs Cle
TAM -12 vs Sea
NE (ev) vs Den


Superbowl/Playoff Projections after 6 Weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: STEELERS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: CHARGERS
WILDCARDS: RAVENS & DOLPHINS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: PANTHERS
NFC WEST: CARDINALS
WILDCARDS: COWBOYS & EAGLES

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: STEELERS OVER TITANS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER COWBOYS

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER STEELERS


TOP 6 TEAMS:*
1-GIANTS
2-COWBOYS
3-PANTHERS
4-BEARS
5-EAGLES
6-STEELERS

TOP 6 OFFENSES:**
1-COWBOYS
2-PACKERS
3-BRONCOS
4-CHARGERS
5-CARDINALS
6-SAINTS

TOP 6 DEFENSES:***
1-STEELERS
2-RAVENS
3-TITANS
4-PANTHERS
5-GIANTS
6-BEARS

TOP 6 OFF YRDS PER PT:****
1-JETS
2-CHARGERS
3-CARDINALS
4-BILLS
5-TITANS
6-PACKERS


*Based on my excel program power ratings using 18 key statistical categories.
**Based on my excel program offensive power ratings using 8 key offensive statistical categories.
***Based on my excel program defensive power ratings using 8 key defensive statistical categories.
****The Top 6 teams in this category are solid ATS bets beginning week 8 thru week 15. The winning percentage is significantly higher when ignoring double digit games and laying no more than -5.0 on the road. It is rare when a Top Six team in this category is much of a dog, but I recommend a pass if they are an underdog of a touchdown or more.


After 5 Weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: CHARGERS
WILDCARDS: STEELERS & DOLPHINS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: PANTHERS
NFC WEST: CARDINALS
WILDCARDS: COWBOYS & EAGLES

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER BILLS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER COWBOYS

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS


After 4 weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: CHARGERS
WILDCARDS: STEELERS & BRONCOS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: BUCS
NFC WEST: 49ERS
WILDCARDS: EAGLES & COWBOYS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER BILLS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER EAGLES

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS


After 3 Weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: BRONCOS
WILDCARDS: STEELERS & CHARGERS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: FALCONS
NFC WEST: 49ERS
WILDCARDS: COWBOYS & EAGLES

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER RAVENS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER COWBOYS

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS

dt

[jcindaville]

Go Steelers


lol


i like this one better Dave

Thanks for posting

[dave T]

Go Steelers


lol


i like this one better Dave

Thanks for posting

You must be a STEELERS fan. My Power Ratings only have the Steelers 5/100ths of a point higher than the Titans. I'll be posting the "official" Projection next week, so whatever goes down this Sunday will determine the projection. I use to project after 6 Weeks (after each team had a minimum of 5 games under their belt), but I'm gonna bump it to 7 Weeks (6 games). I'm more comfortable with that.

Beginning next week the Off Yrds Per Pt. kicks in. It's been solid the last 5 years ATS.

Looking at last Week...

The Top Six Teams in Power Rating were 1-4 ATS.

The Top Six Offenses were 3-1 ATS.

The Top Six Defenses were 0-4 ATS.

The Top Six Off Yrds Per Pt. were 4-0 ATS, bringing the season total to 6-2 (2-2 Week Five, the earliest week you would want to consider).

This seems to be a consistent if not inenigmatic theme. Based on my research over the last few years, the Top Teams in Power Ratings, Offense, or Defense are not necessarily consistent ATS winners. Whereas the Top Teams in Offensive Yards Per Point are solid. It's nothing new of course.

But during Weeks 5-7 the teams are only 25-20 ATS the last five seasons. After that, the numbers soar. I posted them in last week's thread but don't remember them off the top of my head. There are criteria that will weed out the 50/50 stuff, like not messing with double digit games...

dt