Announcement

**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:51 AM

Daily Sports Roundup

Thursday, October 9

Wake Forest and Clemson will meet in an ACC clash on Thursday night, while the NLCS will get underway in Philadelphia. Here's a look in today's Daily Sports Roundup.

The Gridiron Spotlight

The Tigers began their season with a loss to ranked Alabama, and they hit another bump in the road last time out when they fell 20-17 to Maryland. That's dropped Clemson to 3-2 on the season, and they're 0-3 against the spread. Wake Forest stumbled in their last game as well, falling 24-17 to Navy. That was the Demon Deacons' first loss of the season (they're 3-1), and they're 2-2 ATS and 2-2 on the OVER/UNDER. Oddsmakers have Wake Forest listed as 2.5-point favorites Thursday.

The other college football game on the Thursday schedule has Houston hosting UAB in Conference USA action. The Cougars knocked off then-No. 23 East Carolina 41-24 last time out to improve to 2-3 on the season, while UAB is coming off a 33-30 loss to Memphis and sit at 1-5. The Cougars are big 18.5-point home favorites in this contest.

Other Notable Events

The National League Championship Series gets underway on Thursday night, with the Phillies playing host to the Dodgers. Philadelphia will send ace Cole Hamels to the mound in Game 1, and he'll be looking to turn in another stellar postseason outing. Hamels tossed eight shutout innings against the Brewers back on October 1, giving up just two hits and fanning nine. Hamels beat the Dodgers in a start back on August 23.

Lowe also grabbed a win in his first appearance of the playoffs, surrendering just two earned runs on seven hits over six innings against the Cubs on October 1. Lowe walked one and struck out six in that outing. Lowe faced the Phillies back on August 11, allowing three earned runs on five hits over his 6 1-3 innings pitched in that matchup.

The Phillies are pegged as -136 home favorites in Game 1, with the total at 7.5 runs.

The Rest of the Schedule

The National Hockey League gets back into full swing on Thursday night, with four games on the schedule. Highlighting the slate is the season opener for the defending-champion Red Wings - they'll get a visit from the Maple Leafs. Rounding out the schedule are Boston at Colorado, Calgary at Vancouver, and Anaheim at San Jose.

News from the Wire

The Phillies opened as -130 favorites to win the National League Championship Series, but that line has slipped to around -110 at many books since it appeared . . . The Red Sox were pegged as -155 favorites to win the American League Championship Series when that opener was set on Tuesday, but that's now been bet down to around -130 . . . the Canadian Grand Prix has been dropped from the F1 calendar for the 2009 season.

A Peek at the Future

The only college football game on the schedule for Friday is Louisville at Memphis . . . there are seven more NHL games on the Friday schedule, most notably Chicago at the Rangers and Montreal at Buffalo . . . the American League Championship Series gets underway on Friday, with Tampa Bay hosting Boston (first pitch is set for 8:30pm ET). Game 2 of the NLCS also goes on Friday, with the contest in Philly starting at 4:30pm.

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:54 AM

Six-pack for Thursday

-- When Colts won in regulation Sunday, after being down 17 with 5:00 to go, they became first-ever NFL team to do that.

-- Three D-I football teams in Oklahoma (Sooners-Oklahoma State and Tulsa) are a combined 15-0 this season.

-- If you get dealt 7-2 offsuit in Texas Hold-'em, you've been dealt the worst possible starting hand.

-- John McCain used the phrase "my friends" 22 times during the Presidential debate Wednesday night.

-- Average total in first five Monday night games this year is 58.8; all-time record for highest total in MNF is 54.6, back in 2004.

-- Wouldn't the Bengals help themselves by trading Chad Johnson? Their season is lost, he's a distraction-- they definitely could get an extra draft pick that could help them get better next season.

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:54 AM

Thursday's List of 13: Our college football List of 13.......

This isn't a ranking, just 13 teams who made an impression last week, whether positive or negative.

13) Pittsburgh-- Won four games in row since opening loss against Bowling Green; the win at South Florida was huge for Wannstedt.

12) Tennessee-- Ugh. In last three games, have total of 31 points, 34 first downs; they have two takeaways in last three games, are 11 for last 40 on third down. Other than that, everything's going great.

11) Virginia-- Beat Maryland 31-0, after starting season 0-3 against D-I teams, with three losses by combined score of 128-20. Actually re-checked this score twice when I saw it, to make sure it was right.

10) Minnesota, Northwestern-- Both seem headed to bowls- they play each other November 1, so one of them has to go bowling. In last three games, Wildcats allowed total of eight second half points.

9) North Carolina-- 4-1 despite playing with #3 QB; with Fighting Irish coming to Chapel Hill this week, winner is going to be 5-1 and in top 25. Tar Heels blocked three UConn punts last week, one for TD.

8) Wyoming-- Outscored 113-16 in last three games, with a turnover ratio of -13 in just those games; actually used four QBs in one game. This coaching job will be open soon- they have a game at Tennessee November 8, which could get very ugly.

7) Louisiana-Lafayette-- Averaged 12 yards/play last week, running ball 37 times for 556 yards against archrival UL-Monroe. They had six TD runs of at least 52 yards, which has to be record of some kind.

6) Ball State-- They're unbeaten, their closest win this season was a 35-23 win over decent Navy team, have an excellent QB (Davis) but we need to see more of them on TV. Good shot to wind up 12-0.

5) Tulsa-- Scoring 55 ppg vs D-I opponents, they figure to be 8-0 heading into consecutive November games, at Arkansas, Houston. Other than those two, would be shocking if they lost. New Mexico is only team to hold them under 550 total yards.

4) Texas Tech-- Offensive juggernaut can run ball little now-- they average 143.3 rushing yards/game vs D-I foes, which keeps rushing linemen on their toes. Play Kansas-Texas-Oklahoma State all in row later this month, which will define their season.

3) Vanderbilt-- Trailed 13-0 in first quarter vs Auburn, won 14-13, now Auburn fired their offensive coordinator. Commodores are +9 in turnover ratio, held last three foes scoreless in second half. Will be in a bowl for the first time since 1982. Good for them.

2) Miami, FL-- Scored 36 points in second half vs Florida State, but still lost 41-39; allowing 29.5 ppg, are 1-3 vs D-I teams, no sign that Shannon is coach to lead them back to prominence, but he does have a young team-- the new QB appears to be promising.

1) Missouri-- A freakin' juggernaut on offense, scoring 51ppg in its four wins vs D-I foes. Outscored last three opponents 74-14 in the second half. Only nine of their 58 plays at Nebraska were on third down, and they converted seven of those nine.

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:56 AM

National Hockey League – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 9

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TORONTO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at DETROIT (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 83-32 ATS (+3.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-1 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-1-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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BOSTON (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at COLORADO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2008, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 15-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-15 ATS (+40.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 1-0-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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CALGARY (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at VANCOUVER (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2008, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 62-85 ATS (-64.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 9-7 (+3.6 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 9-7-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

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ANAHEIM (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at SAN JOSE (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/9/2008, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 6-12 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 7-12 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 10-6 (+3.4 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 10-6-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.8 Units)

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:57 AM

National Hockey League - Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 9th

Toronto at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Toronto: 41-51 SU as an underdog
Detroit: 51-19 SU as a home favorite of -200 or higher

Boston at Colorado, 10:05 ET
Boston: 4-9 SU vs. Colorado
Colorado: 15-5 SU vs. Eastern Conference

Calgary at Vancouver, 10:35 ET
Calgary: 16-32 SU Away if total is 5 or less
Vancouver: 56-40 SU as favorite

Anaheim at San Jose, 10:35 ET
Anaheim: 6-2 SU at San Jose
San Jose: 7-12 SU at home vs. division

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:58 AM

National Hockey League – Trend Sheet

NHL

Thursday, October 9

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Trend Sheet
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8:00 PM TORONTO vs. DETROIT
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
Detroit is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home

10:00 PM BOSTON vs. COLORADO
Boston is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Boston is 2-8-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Boston

10:30 PM ANAHEIM vs. SAN JOSE
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Anaheim's last 12 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Jose's last 12 games when playing Anaheim
San Jose is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Anaheim

10:30 PM CALGARY vs. VANCOUVER
Calgary is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Calgary is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Vancouver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vancouver's last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 04:58 AM

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up

Thursday, October 9

We'll start our daily NHL analysis Monday, when the teams have a few games under their belt.

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:00 AM

This Day in MLB

MLB

Thursday, October 9

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This day in Baseball….
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On October 9 in Baseball History...

* 1905 - At Philadelphia, Christy Mathewson of the Giants outpitches 26-game-winner Eddie Plank 3-0 in the first game of an all-shutout Series.

* 1906 - Snow flies at West Side Park as the first one-city World Series opens with the 116-win Cubs heavy favorites. White Sox starter Nick Altrock outduels Three Finger Brown for a 2-1 victory.

* 1910 - Nap Lajoie, in a batting race with Ty Cobb, collected eight hits for Cleveland in a season-ending doubleheader with the Browns. The hits were somewhat tainted, however, as St. Louis third baseman Red Corriden played back as Lajoie bunted safely six times. Regardless, Cobb was awarded the batting title by a fraction of a point.

* 1916 - Babe Ruth outpitched Sherry Smith of the Brooklyn Dodgers as the Boston Red Sox won the longest World Series game, 2-1 in 14 innings.

* 1919 - White Sox starter Lefty Williams gets just one man out in the first inning and the Reds go on to a 10-5 victory. Cincinnati wins the best-of-nine World Series in eight games. A year after the 1919 Series ends, the White Sox will become the Black Sox, and eight players will be barred from baseball for taking part in throwing the Series.

* 1926 - Grover Alexander scatters eight hits in Game Six while the Cards tee off at Yankee Stadium for a 10-2 romp that sends the Series to a seventh game.

* 1928 - Babe Ruth hit three home runs in a World Series game for the second time in his career as the Yankees beat the St. Louis Cardinals 7-3.

* 1934 - Dizzy Dean of St. Louis blanked the Detroit Tigers 11-0 in the seventh game of the World Series.

* 1938 - The Yankees become the first team to win three successive World Championships, defeating the Cubs 8-3. Red Ruffing wins his second game as the Yankees sweep the Cubs for the second time in six years.

* 1944 - The Cardinals top the Browns, 3-1, and win the World Series in six games.

* 1949 - The Yankees pound the Dodgers 10-6 to win the World Series in five games. Pinch hitter and third baseman Bobby Brown is the hitting hero, batting .500 and driving in five runs.

* 1956 - The Dodgers bounce back after Don Larsen's perfect game to tie the series in Game Six. Clem Labine comes out of the bullpen to pitch a 1-0 victory over the Yankees in 10 innings.

* 1957 - With Warren Spahn stricken by the flu, Lew Burdette, pitching with two days rest, hurls his third complete game and second shutout to beat New York 5-0 to win the World Series.

* 1958 - Bob Turley of the Yankees pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings in relief to beat the Milwaukee Braves 6-2 for the World Series title. New York became the first team since 1925 to win the World Series after being down 1-3.

* 1966 - Dave McNally wraps up Baltimore's brilliant pitching display, and a World Championship, with a four-hit, 1-0 win. Frank Robinson's home run off Don Drysdale gives Baltimore a surprising sweep of the defending champion Dodgers. The 33 consecutive scoreless innings pitched by Baltimore sets a World Series record.

* 1967 - Roger Maris homers for the Cardinals in the ninth inning, but Jim Lonborg's 3-1 win sends the World Series back to Boston.

* 1971 - The Orioles win the opener of the World Series over the Pirates 5-3. Dave McNally tosses a three-hitter and Merv Rettenmund adds a three-run homer.

* 1977 - The New York Yankees rallied for three runs in the ninth inning to beat the Kansas City Royals 5-3 and take the American League pennant in the fifth game of the playoffs.

* 1984 - The Tigers win the World Series opener as Jack Morris pitches a complete-game 3-2 victory over San Diego. Larry Herndon's two-run home run in the fifth provides the winning margin.

* 1988 - The Oakland Athletics completed a four-game sweep in the ALCS by beating the Boston Red Sox 4-1. Jose Canseco tied an AL playoff record with his third home run of the series and Dennis Eckersley set a major league playoff mark with his fourth save.

* 1989 - The Giants win their first NL pennant since 1962 by defeating the Cubs 3-2 in Game Five of the NLCS. Will Clark bats .650 in the series with eight RBI to win MVP honors.

* 1996 - Bernie Williams homered in the 11th inning to give New York a 5-4 victory over Baltimore in Game 1 of the AL championship series. The Yankees got a lot of help from a fan when Jeff Maier, 12, created a game-tying homer by Derek Jeter in the eighth when he reached out and grabbed a ball that was about to be caught by Tony Tarasco.

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:01 AM

Major League Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet

League Championship Series

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Thursday, October 9

LA DODGERS (87 - 78) at PHILADELPHIA (95 - 71) - 8:15 PM
DEREK LOWE (R) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 87-78 (-5.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 87-78 (-5.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 131-98 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 50-37 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-4 (-0.1 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

DEREK LOWE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
LOWE is 4-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.128.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-2. (+3.1 units)

COLE HAMELS vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
HAMELS is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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Friday, October 10

This long sheet should be updated with Top Trends, we will post when available.

BOSTON (98 - 68) at TAMPA BAY (100 - 66) - 8:35 PM
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 10-8 (+3.5 Units) against BOSTON this season
9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-1.4 Units)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MATSUZAKA is 2-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 3-5 (-5.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+2.0 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. BOSTON since 1997
SHIELDS is 2-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 5.23 and a WHIP of 1.234.
His team's record is 2-6 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.8 units)

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:02 AM

Major League Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 9th

National League Championship Series
Best of Seven
Game One
Series Tied, 0-0
TV: FOX
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia, 8:15 ET
Derek Lowe (R) vs. Cole Hamels (L)

Lowe:
Dodgers 0-4 at Philadelphia
Dodgers 25-12 Under playing with double revenge

Hamels:
Philadelphia 31-16 after allowing 2 runs or less
Philadelphia 8-2 Under at home vs. Dodgers

Friday, October 10th

American League Championship Series
Best of Seven
Game One
Series Tied, 0-0
TV: TBS
Boston at Tampa Bay, 8:35 ET
Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) vs. James Shields (R)

Matsuzaka:
Boston 6-16 on turf
Boston 1-8 at Tampa Bay

Shields:
15-3 TSR at home
15-4 TSR off a win

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:03 AM

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up

Thursday, October 9

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Hamels is 3-1, 2.31 in his last four starts, with last three starts staying under total-- he is 1-0, 2.57 in two starts vs LA this season, giving up a pair of runs in seven IP in both starts. Lowe is 5-0, 0.85 in his last seven starts; he beat Phillies 8-6 August 11, allowing three runs in 6.1 IP. Four of his last five road starts went over the total.

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:04 AM

Major League Baseball – Trend Sheet

MLB

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Trend Sheet
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Thursday, October 9

8:22 PM LA DODGERS vs. PHILADELPHIA
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:06 AM

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB

Thursday, October 9

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Tips and Trends
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies [ FOX | 8:22 PM ET]

Dodgers: Derek Lowe has been the best pitcher in baseball since the middle of August, allowing more than one earned run just twice in his last 10 outings. One of those times came last time out at Chicago in Game 1 of the NLDS, but he still earned the win after going six innings and giving up two runs and seven hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Lowe has had a tough time on the road overall this season with a 5-6 mark and 4.42 ERA, but he does own a career mark of 4-1 against the Phillies with a 3.02 ERA.

Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 road games.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - OF Andruw Jones (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Phillies (-135, O/U 7.5): Cole Hamels was simply outstanding in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Brewers, limiting the Brewers to just two hits in eight scoreless innings while walking one batter and striking out nine. He has also pitched well against the Dodgers in two lifetime starts, going 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Hamels has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last 11 starts, pitching at least six innings 10 times during that stretch.

Home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Philadelphia's last 8 games following a win.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

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**pm530** · 10-09-2008, 05:07 AM

Major League Baseball – Hot lines

MLB

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Hot lines: LCS Previews / Picks
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NLCS - Thursday, October 9

Dodgers vs. Phillies: Series preview and pick

Los Angeles Dodgers (+101) at Philadelphia Phillies (-111)

I was hoping the Phillies would be favored by a bit more than this, but I guess the Dodgers caught everybody’s attention with their sweep of the Cubs.

The lineup that Los Angeles put on the field in Game 3 against Chicago bears very little resemblance to what it looked like less than three months ago, and I think people are starting to realize that.

From May 6 through July 31—that’s the period after Rafael Furcal got hurt, and before they traded for Manny Ramirez—the Dodgers hit .244/.303/.359. They averaged 3.66 runs per game; for comparison, the Padres had the worst offense in the majors this year, averaged 3.93 R/G.

The Dodgers may have won just 84 games during the regular season, but this is a different team; this team, as presently constructed, would’ve run away with the NL West, probably winning 90-95 games.

We were able to take advantage of this in the first round, when the Cubs were favored by an outrageous amount against LA, but this price seems about right. After all, the Phillies do have home-field advantage, and Cole Hamels going in Game 1.

Both teams have excellent bullpens; the Dodgers probably have the edge in the rotation since Philadelphia can’t match their 1-2 punch of Lowe and Billingsley.

That, I think, is where the value will lie in this series.

As was very clearly seen in the opening line of Game 2 of the Cubs-Dodgers series—the Cubs opened as ridiculous -170 favorites—people clearly don’t yet understand just how good Chad Billingsley is. Maybe it’s his age (24), or the fact he had a win-loss record of just 9-9 in mid-July, because the Dodgers couldn’t score any runs for him.

Not only is Billingsley one of the best young pitchers in the league, he’s one of the best pitchers, of any age, in baseball. People may realize that a couple weeks from now, but I don’t think they have yet, and there should be some value in backing him in Game 2.

For the series overall, I really do think it’s a tossup; it’s almost impossible to predict a series like this when the two teams are so evenly matched. I’ll go Dodgers in 7, behind a strong 1-2 punch in the rotation and a couple big hits from their Hall of Fame left fielder.

Pick: Dodgers

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ALCS - Friday, October 10

Red Sox vs. Rays: Series preview and pick

Boston Red Sox (-123) versus Tampa Bay Rays (+113)

Well, there was no reason to expect the public to start respecting the Rays now, and they didn’t. Tampa Bay is the first team with home-field advantage to be an underdog in these playoffs.

This line isn’t as unreasonable as it would seem from just looking at the teams’ two regular season records (the Rays won two additional games) since Boston’s run differential was actually 48 runs better than Tampa Bay’s.

But run differential doesn’t tell the whole story either, since the Red Sox come into the series with ace Josh Beckett banged up, and third baseman Mike Lowell not even on the ALCS roster.

The reason Boston is favored doesn’t have much to do with anything in the last two things mentioned. It’s because of the names and histories of the two teams; the Red Sox have shed the “losers” label by winning two titles over the last four seasons, while the Rays had never won 70 games prior to this year. The perception may have changed significantly since the spring, but it’s hard to do a complete 180 in just a few months.

This can most clearly be seen in the Game 1 line, with the Rays, playing at home with their ace on the mound, barely favored (-110/+102).

Daisuke Matsuzaka, may have the name recognition, and the impressive win-loss record (18-2), but Jamie Shields is simply a better pitcher. Matsuzaka has slightly better strikeout and groundball rates, but his walk rate of 5.1 BB/9 is three times as high as Shields.

There will probably be significant value in most of Tampa Bay’s game lines this series, but Friday night’s game may be the best opportunity to bet on them because Matsuzaka is about as overrated as it gets.

Overall, like the NLCS, this is a pretty evenly matched series. The Red Sox are better (even after the injuries), while the Rays have the extra game at home.

At these odds, I’d definitely take Tampa Bay, and even without them I think the Rays take it in 7.

Pick: Rays

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Announcement

Thursday Trends and Indexes 10/9 (MLB, NHL, Misc.)

Thursday Trends and Indexes 10/9 (MLB, NHL, Misc.)

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