NFL Week 6 Lines (excel)

[dave T]

The lines are are a consensus average of 3 different models. The models are listed to the (right). The first model is based on a Power Rating using 18 different statistical categories. The second model is based on Yards per point offensively and defensively. And the third model is simply based on points for/points against with strength of schedule mixed in.

Oak
Nor -6.5 (-4.5, -7.5, -7.5)

Bal -1.5 (-2.5, Pk, -1.5)
Ind

Cin
Nyj -8.0 (-7.5, -9.0, -8.5)

Car
Tam -1.0 (-2.5, Pk, Pk)

Det
Min -12.5 (-11.5, -11.5, -14.5)

Chi
Atl Pk (-1.0, Pk, +1.0)

Mia -3.5 (-2.0, -3.5, -5.0)
Hou

Stl
Was -17.0 (-14.0, -17.0, -20.5)

Jax
Den -6.0 (-6.0, -5.5, -7.0)

Phi -1.5 (-1.0, -1.5, -2.5)
Sfo

Dal
Ari -1.0 (+1.0, -1.0, -1.5)

Grb -2.0 (Pk, -2.5, -4.0)
Sea

Nwe
Sdg -5.5 (-7.0, -4.5, -5.5)

Nyg -11.5 (-11.0, -10.0, -14.0)
Cle

dt

[roccodean]

Dave, when is a team a good bet...what does the difference of the projected and actual line have to be? How has the record been throughout the years?

[dave T]

I don't know the records because I haven't kept up with it. I don't use the lines "solely" to make picks.

Generally, I don't put any weight to the lines until at least week 7. I like for each team to have a minimum of 5 games under their belt.

From week 7 on, I do like to find rediculous lines. Last year, late in the season, the Broncos were a 3-pt fave at Houston. But all 3 of my model had Houston a 4 or 5 point fave. Crazy line. Houston won 31-13. In 2006, around week 9, the Saints were playing at Tampa. I had the Saints ranked #7 in the NFL by my power ratings and the Bucs ranked #26. And I had a line of New Orleans -8. Vegas had the Saints at +1.

Some cappers on the Friday talk radio shows were all over the Bucs. From a technical handicapping standpoint, it may have been a good spot for them, but the line was way off and it was a mismatch. The Saints routed them.

One handicapper cited his reasons for being on the Bucs was that they had a good defense. Apparently he was relying on their past history, because in '06 their defense sucked. Secondly, he cited that the Bucs had beat the Eagles. Well, yeah, but they were outgained by 310 yards in a fluke win. McNabb had the flu that day and threw 3 picks, two of which were run back for TD's.

Bottom line, I like to use the line to either keep me off a game I otherwise liked, or to supplement a game I like. A couple years ago I LOVED Philly at home over the Chargers. But the Eagles were a 4-pt fave when they should've been a small dog, so I passed the game. The Eagles won by 3 points and would've been a win for me if the line was right, but nevertheless the excel line kept me off the Eagles @ -4.0.

In general, I prefer a difference of 4 points. But if I like a game for other reasons, then I'm just looking for a line that doesn't screw me, so I wouldn't as adamant about the difference.

A good stat to keep an eye on against the spead is yards per point on offense. I post the Top 6 teams each week in this category. Beginning week 8, I wouldn't go against it. It's a solid 85-34 ATS the last 5 years using certain criteria. I'll bump that thread (Superbowl Projection).

dt

[roccodean]

I remember that saints game...i couldnt believe the line! I fired on the saints

[dave T]

Roc-I posted somei info for you...

http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=154236

dt

[thaikarate1]

Maybe too early,

But the teams to play are as follow:

Ravens +4
Falcons +3
Cardinals +5
Dolphins +3

[dave T]

Maybe too early,

But the teams to play are as follow:

Ravens +4
Falcons +3
Cardinals +5
Dolphins +3

I agree it's too early to use just the line for picks. One more week, preferably two.

Good example: The line would say play the Packers, but it's highly scewed due to the Seahawks getting routed not just on the scoreboard, but in the stats too. I lean to the Seahawks. When a team gets outyarded by 300> yards, their probably gonna bounce back unless they are a cellar dweller...

dt