NFL Week 6

[roccodean]

Whats up all. Posting a game early. Love balt at 4.5. Will have more plays later

1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units


3* Baltimore +4.5 over Indy
Indy is clearly not the team they have been in the past. They are 2-2 including a win from the football gods (Sage didn't help) last week against the Texans and a late win against Jax. Indy's rushing game is poor averaging only 3.6 YPR (26th) and 68 YPG (last in league). Manning just hasn't looked in sync with his receivers this year as he is only averaging 8.7 YPPA (19th). I don't see Indy moving the ball against a Baltimore D that is one of the best in the league. Baltimore is ranked first in both rush and pass D only allowing 2.8 YPR and an amazing 4.9 YPPA. On the defensive side of the ball the oalts are also below average. They are last in league allowing 189 YPG rushing (and 4.9 YPr, 26th). They are also allowing 6.9 YPPA (14th).
Baltimore is 2-2 and coming off a tough loss at home against the Titans. Baltimore has lost to two good teams (Pitt and Tenn), while Indy lost to Carolina and Minnesota (both average teams). As mentioned above the Ravens D is amazing allowing only 14 PPG (3rd in NFL) versus teams that have allowed a combined 18 PPG. Baltimore's passing game is poor only gaining 5.7 YPPA (27th), but they average 154 YPG on the ground (4th in the NFL), and this week will be going against the worst rush D in the league. I don't see the Ravens throwing much, I think they will run the ball often and keep Manning off the field. Overall, they average 18 PPG, but this is against defenses that have allowed only 16.6 PPG, so they are better than average. My Super System has Baltimore as a 4 point favorite, so the line is way off! Simply, Baltimore's has a much better defense and running game and is too strong for Indy and I see them covering this spread.

[Chado1]

BOL with the Ravens on Sunday rocco and thanks for posting!!!

Keep up the great work!!!

[FB Coach13]

good luck rocco, u doin the math system this year

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Rocco

[Bill the Thrill]

gl roc

[roccodean]

yea bill, doin the math system. It started week 5 and it was 4-1...but I didnt take any of those games. Ill post all my math plays too later this week.

[Kaptain]

gl roc---thanks

[roccodean]

May add up to 3 more by game day. Big card. Good luck to all

2* Cincinnati +6 over N.Y. Jets (Possible upgrade to 3*)
Note: This is not a play is Palmer does not play (he is expected to play)
Cincinnati has played well their last two road games nearly beating the Giants and the Cowboys and I think they continue this trend and get a win at the Jets. The New York "Brett's" are not a good football team. They only gain 3.8 YPR (22nd) and 7.5 YPPA (12th). I still think Favre is learning the offense and I am not sold on him. If you look at his 2005 and 2006 stats he was very bad (70 and 72 passer rating, respectively). I think when it's all said and done he will not play like he did last year and look like the Brett from '05 and '06. He had a monster game last week against Arizona, but the pass D is weak and we all know how they play on the road. He has also thrown 4 INT's already. Cinci's pass D is very good (surprisingly) and they only allow 6.1 YPPA (7th) and 168 YPG (6th). The Jets defense is simply weak. They are allowing 29 PPG (26th in NFL) versus teams that have only averaged 23.5 PPG. Their rush D is good allowing 3.1 YPG but their pass D is pitiful giving up 7.7 YPPA (27th) and 265 YPG (31st). Cinci's strength is their passing game and Palmer is going to eat the Jets for breakfast. Cinci has only been averaging 5.4 YPPA, but this takes into account the game where Palmer was hurt and their game against Tennessee where there were gusts of winds up to 50 mph. Cincinatti's rush D gives up 4.5 YPR (21st). The Bengals are -4 in turnover ratio which is a big reason for their 0-4 record, and this trend will not continue (turnovers are random occurence in football). The line is right on the money as my Super System has the Jets as 6 point favs. There are 5 great trends (the best being 49-17 ATS) favoring the Bengals because of their losing streak. I think these teams are close to equal and the number is too high and wouldn't be surprised if Cinci gets their first win...who dey!


2* Tampa Bay -1.5 over Carolina (Possible Upgrade to 3*)
Carolina may be 4-1, but I don't think they are in the top tier of the league. They are also a lot better at home than on the road where they lost to Minnesota and barely beat S.D. (this was week 1). Carolina's offense is average gaining 3.9 YPR (20th) and 7.7 YPPA (9th). Defensively, they are pretty good allowing 3.6 YPR (12th) and 5.4 YPPA (2nd). They have won back to back games and now facing a division foe on the road in Tampa which is one of the hardest places to play. In fact, Tampa is 25-6-1 ATS at home in games where they are favored by less than 3. Tampa is 3-2 with both losses on the road. Last week they lost a close matchup to Denver and I think they will bounce back big this week. Garcia is likely to start and I think he is an upgrade from Griese (Griese QB rating this year is 65 and Garcia's career rating is 87 including 95 when he started in Tampa in 2007). Plus, Tampa has a great running game averaging 5.3 YPR (3rd) which will free up receivers for Garcia. Tampa is just as good defensively as the Panthers; they are allowing 18.8 PPG versus teams that have averaged 26 PPG. They allow only 3.7 YPR (9th) and 7.1 YPPA (18th). The number is on the money as my system has Tampa -2. Tampa is the better team and they are at home where they are dominant...take them as a 2* as long as line is 3 or less.


[SIZE="4"]2* Cleveland +8 over N.Y. Giants SIZE]
The Brownies are in a perfect situation for an upset in this game! They are coming off a bye and are a Monday night home dog. The Browns have looked half asleep on the field, but if you can't get up for a Monday night game you are gutless. The Giants are 4-0 and are one of the top teams in the league, but as I've said many times before the better team does not always win/cover. The Giants average 5.8 YPR (1st) and 7.8 YPPA (8th). I still don't have confidence in Eli. The media has terrible short term memory loss. It was less than a year ago that Eli was "the worst QB in the league" after he threw 4 picks versus Minnesota. Now they are talking about how he is better than Peyton (yeah right). The Giants have played one of the easiest schedules in the league; they have faced Washington (this was week 1 when the Skins weren't nearly as good as they are now), Cinci, St. Louis, and Seattle.
The Browns haven't had the explosive offense they had last year, but I think it's only a matter of time that they get back to business. Cleveland is averaging 3.5 YPR (28th) and only 4.6 YPPA. Stallworth is likely to return this week so D. Anderson will have another option. Defensively, the Browns are allowing 19.5 PPG, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the league (played Balt, Pitt, and Dallas) and these teams have combined to average 21 PPG. Their run D is average allowing 4.1 YPR (16th) and their pass D allows 7.4 YPPA (23rd). There are 6 strong trends favoring the Browns including a great 43-17 ATS Monday night trend going against the Giants because of their big win last week. I think the Cleveland Clowns return to the Cleveland Browns this week.


1* Houston -3 over Miami
Houston is coming off an ugly loss versus Indy, but this week they will have Shaub back and are in prime position to get their first win. The Phins look like an improved team this year, but coming off two wins as an underdog they are in a huge let down position. The Stats are very similar between these two teams. Miami averages 4.3 YPR (11th) and 7.2 YPPA (14th). On the defensive side of the ball they allow 3.3 YPR (5th), but are very bad against the pass allowing 8 YPPA (29th). Houston averages 4.4 YPR (11th) and 6.6 YPPA (21st). Defensively, they allow 4.5 YPR and 7.4 YPPA (22nd). Houston has played on of the toughest schedules in the league having to travel to Pitt, Tenn, and Jax. They are finally at home against a mediocre opponent and I think they will take advantage of this. On the other hand Miami beat S.D. and N.E. but I wouldn't overreact to this because both of these teams are overrated this year. How soon we forget that they got blown out at Arizona and lost to the Jets at home. There are no trends favoring either team. I like Houston to get their first win and take them as a 1*.

[roccodean]

These are my math model plays (41-22 last year and 4-1 last week). Unless above I am not playing these so I wont use them in my overall record.

Washington (may actually play St Lou)
Arizona
GB
BAL
Minne
Miami (playing opposite side bc trends and situationals outweigh math)

[Saints]

good luck rocco.. like the plays on Hou, TB and Cinny.. but I do like the colts over the birds.

[roccodean]

Taking off cinci as a play-palmer is out

[baseballdave]

good luck on sunday rocco
dave

[Saints]

thanks for the info rocco.. never knew and will follow suit

[Dat Boi E]

good luck on Sunday, Rocco!

[Cashmoneyasians]

Best of Luck Rocco!!!