NFL Week 6 Trends and Indexes 10/12 and 10/13

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


If the Chicago/Atlanta matchup updates, we'll post it below.


Week 6


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Sunday, October 12

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OAKLAND (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-48 ATS (-29.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 5) at NY JETS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (4 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (0 - 4) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (0 - 4) at WASHINGTON (4 - 1) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) at DENVER (4 - 1) - 10/12/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 120-86 ATS (+25.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (4 - 1) at ARIZONA (3 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 3) at SEATTLE (1 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-43 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-43 ATS (+22.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 13

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NY GIANTS (4 - 0) at CLEVELAND (1 - 3) - 10/13/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 6


Sunday, October 12th

Oakland at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 1-7 ATS vs. NFC
New Orleans: 10-2 Over off BB Overs

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 1-8 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 7-0 ATS off BB ATS losses

Cincinnati at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 14-4 Under Away if total is 45.5 or higher
NY Jets: 50-27 Under if failing to cover 2 of 3

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 8-1 Under as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Tampa Bay: 82-52 Under as favorite

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 0-6 ATS Away in dome games
Minnesota: 19-6 ATS at home off win by 6 or less

Chicago at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 5-1 Under vs. Atlanta
Atlanta: 14-4 ATS after allowing 400+ yards BB games

Miami at Houston, 1:00 ET
Miami: 12-28 ATS off a SU win as underdog
Houston: 26-12 ATS off BB SU losses

St. Louis at Washington, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 3-13 ATS as an underdog
Washington: 6-1 Under off BB SU wins as underdog

Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 9-0 Over off 3+ Overs
Denver: 2-8 ATS off home win

Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:15 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS off division game
San Francisco: 7-1 Over in October

Dallas at Arizona, 4:15 ET
Dallas: 13-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Arizona: 16-6 Over as an underdog

Green Bay at Seattle, 4:15 ET
Green Bay: 11-1 Over off 3+ losses
Seattle: 24-45 ATS in weeks 5 through 9

New England at San Diego, 8:15 ET NBC
New England: 15-5 ATS in road games
San Diego: 9-2 ATS in home games



Monday, October 13th

NY Giants at Cleveland, 8:30 ET ESPN
NY Giants: 7-0 Over after gaining 400+ total yards
Cleveland: 9-0 ATS off road game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Week 6


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Trend Sheet
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Sunday, October 12

1:00 PM BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore


1:00 PM CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina


1:00 PM CHICAGO vs. ATLANTA
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games


1:00 PM CINCINNATI vs. NY JETS
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Cincinnati


1:00 PM DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


1:00 PM MIAMI vs. HOUSTON
Miami is 8-13-2 ATS in its last 23 games
Miami is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games


1:00 PM OAKLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games at home


1:00 PM ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis


4:05 PM JACKSONVILLE vs. DENVER
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


4:15 PM DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games


4:15 PM GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
Green Bay is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay


4:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


8:15 PM NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
New England is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games
San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
San Diego is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New England



Monday, October 13

8:30 PM NY GIANTS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home


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[Udog]

They Need More Points:
Play an NFL team that is off 4+ losses and giving up more
than 27 points per game if they are at least a 7-point dog today.


Record Since 1983:
64-40 ATS (61.5%)


This week’s application:
Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams

Continuing the Heartbreak:
Play against any NFL road favorite coming off back-toback
straight up losses in games that saw them favored.


Pointspread Record Since 1980
: 26-10 (72.2%)


This week’s application:
San Francisco 49ers (play against Eagles)

[Kaptain]

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[Udog]

Thank you, Kapt.!

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 6


Jacksonville at Denver
The Jaguars come into the contest with a 12-5 ATS record as an underdog over the last three seasons and face a Denver team that 1-4 ATS against AFC South opponents. Jacksonville is the underdog pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12

Game 203-204: Oakland at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.240; New Orleans 132.336
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7 1/2); Under

Game 205-206: Baltimore at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.094; Indianapolis 138.464
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-4 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Cincinnati at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.774; NY Jets 130.634
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3; 41
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 6; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+6); Under

Game 209-210: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.548; Tampa Bay 134.723
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+1); Under

Game 211-212: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.477; Minnesota 137.537
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 20; 40
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 13; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-13); Under

Game 213-214: Chicago at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 136.569; Atlanta 129.898
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under

Game 215-216: Miami at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.272; Houston 128.559
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

Game 217-218: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 113.624; Washington 137.071
Dunkel Line: Washington by 23 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Washington by 13 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-13 1/2); Under

Game 219-220: Jacksonville at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 133.898; Denver 132.336
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 136.194; San Francisco 126.844
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 5; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5); Over

Game 223-224: Dallas at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 139.330; Arizona 131.121
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5; 50
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under

Game 225-226: Green Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 131.916; Seattle 128.763
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 3; 51
Vegas Line: Seattle by 2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Over

Game 227-228: New England at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.478; San Diego 138.393
Dunkel Line: Even; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (+5 1/2); Under


MONDAY, OCTOBER 13

Game 229-230: NY Giants at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.133; Cleveland 130.362
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6; 46
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9); Over

[Udog]

NFL


Week 6


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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, October 12

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [FOX | 1 PM ET]

Panthers: The Panthers have quietly become one of the NFL’s best teams and they are doing it behind a ground game that’s chewing up 123 yards per contest thanks to the tandem of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers piled up 205 yards rushing against Kansas City, despite starting tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah both being out. Carolina’s defense is healthy again this season and it’s showing on the field, as they allow just 14 points per game. Carolina’s defense was incredible in the first half last week when it held the Chiefs to 28 yards and one first down.

Panthers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

Key Injuries - OT Jordan Gross (concussion) is questionable.
OT Jeff Otah (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (Side Play of the Day)

Bucs (-1.5, O/U 36.5): Brian Griese left last week’s game with a bruised elbow and right shoulder and all indications are Jeff Garcia will start against Carolina. Garcia had been the inactive third quarterback since getting benched following the Sept. 7 season opener at New Orleans. He was the backup Sunday at Denver and entered the game in the second half to lead the Bucs on a 90-yard touchdown drive. Garcia could be getting some help today. WR Joey Galloway, who has missed the last three games with a foot sprain, could return to the lineup against Carolina.

Bucs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South.
Bucs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Key Injuries - QB Brian Griese (shoulder) is doubtful.
WR Joey Galloway (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17



Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

Cowboys (-5, O/U 50): Dallas is coming off a lethargic win over the Bengals and now the Cowboys pass defense, which is allowing 210 yards per game, must prepare for the Cardinals aerial onslaught. Dallas needs to start causing more turnovers on defense. The Cowboys have one interception after five games, which ties them with the winless Lions for the fewest in the NFL. Things don’t look good for the Cowboys secondary this week. Corner Terence Newman (groin) missed last week and could sit again on Sunday, while S Roy Williams (forearm) will miss his third straight game.

Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 road games.

Key Injuries - CB Terence Newman (groin) is doubtful.
S Roy Williams (forearm) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Cardinals: The Cardinals secondary is bruised and battered just in time for the Cowboys and their vaunted passing attack to come to town. Cornerback Rod Hood has a sore groin and might not be able to play on Sunday. Strong safety Adrian Wilson is nursing a sore hamstring that limited him to about a dozen snaps last Sunday. If Hood can't play, rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will take his place. Arizona’s offense racked up 373 yards last week against Buffalo thanks in large part to Kurt Warner playing a near flawless game. Warner is now 33-10 as a starter playing in domes and 18-28 in the open air. In the last two years, the Cardinals are 8-2 at home and 3-8 on the road.

Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The OVER is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 vs. NFC.

Key Injuries - WR Anquan Boldin (head) is doubtful.
CB Roderick Hood (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28



New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers [NBC | 8:15 PM ET]

Patriots: Two weeks after an embarrassing loss to Miami, the New England Patriots got back on track Sunday with a decisive 30-21 win over San Francisco in which they once again controlled all phases of the game. The Patriots had the ball for 39 minutes and 52 seconds out of a possible 60 minutes and held San Francisco without a first down for nearly three quarters after falling behind early. Matt Cassel had his best game as a pro last week, and he’ll look to build on that performance against a Chargers defense that ranks 30th in the NFL defending the pass.

Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.

Key Injuries - RB LaMont Jordan (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Chargers (-6, O/U 44.5): The heat is on Norv Turner after last week’s loss at Miami left the talented Chargers sitting at 2-3. San Diego’s defense has been pitiful, allowing 379 yards and 25.8 points per game. On offense, LaDainian Tomlinson is battling a sore big toe and has yet to get going this year He gained just 35 yards on 12 carries last week against Miami. The Chargers may have to lean on LT even more Sunday night since leading WR Chris Chambers (ankle) is likely to miss this game.

Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Chargers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in October.

Key Injuries - WR Chris Chambers (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

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National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 6 NFL games

Sunday, October 12

Raiders (0-4) @ Saints (2-3)-- Cable making coaching debut for Raiders, who are coming off bye, while Saints are off weird Monday night loss, where they turned ball over four times, had FG blocked for TD, missed go-ahead FG late in game, and also had 11 penalties for 102 yards. Lack of short running game is hurting NO- they're ranked 29th in NFL in red zone offense (3.87 ppp). Oakland covered both its road games, winning 23-8 at Arrowhead, losing 24-23 in Buffalo. NFC south teams are 9-3 vs spread in their non-divisional games.

Ravens (2-2) @ Colts (2-2)-- Indy lost first two games in new stadium, losing 29-13/23-21 to Bears/Jaguars; they could easily be 0-4, trailing at Minnesota 15-0 in third, 27-10 with 5:00 left at Houston last week, in the games they won. Ravens lost five in row vs Colts, losing last three trips to Indy, by 5-2-10 points. Both Baltimore losses are by three pts; Flacco averaged just 3.9 yds/pass in first road start at Pittsburgh. Colts are still third in NFL in red zone offense (5.64 ppp). Ravens have yet to score on 16 drives that started 80+ yards from end zone (Colts have 25 points on 20 such drives).

Bengals (0-5) @ Jets (2-2)-- Home team won last nine series games, as Bengals lost last six series games in Sqamp, but only one of the six was by more than six points. Cincy lost here in OT to Giants three weeks ago. Jets off bye after pair of wild games where 168 points were scored. Jets scored nine TDs on last 23 drives, but ran ball 39 times for just 130 yards in last two games. Bengals are 0-3 on road, losing by 7-3-9 points. Underdog covered all five of their games this season. Jets covered their last six post-bye games, and four in row if laying more than six points.

Panthers (4-1) @ Buccaneers (3-2)-- Garcia expected to start at QB for Tampa club that lost eight of last ten vs Carolina, losing last five series games played here, where last four totals were 48+. Home side lost five of last six games in this divisional rivalry. Carolina didn't allow TD in its last two games (23 drives, nine 3/outs), they're 4-0 on grass (only loss at Metrodome). Tampa is 2-0 at home (24-9/30-21 at Falcons/Packers); they scored 24+ in its wins, 20-13 in losses. Carolian, by far, has best red zone defense in NFL, allowing two TDs, five FGs on 11 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line.

Lions (0-4) @ Vikings (2-3)-- Detroit trailed its four games 21-0/21-0/ 21-3/31-0, as they make case to be NFL's worst team since '76 Bucs lost all 14 games. Not only are Lions 2-15 in last 17 games vs Vikings, they lost last ten trips to Metrodome, with seven of the losses by 10 points or less. Detroit's losses this season are by 13-23-18-27 points (0-4 vs spread). Minnesota is on short week after wild win in Superdome- they won despite allowing two punt returns for TDs. Vikings ran ball for just 128 yards in last two games, despite getting McKinnie back on Monday night. Kitna has bad back, might not play Sunday.

Bears (3-2) @ Falcons (3-2)-- Can Bears stop the run? Falcons ran ball for 318-186-176 in their wins, 105-118 in losses. Bears allowed just two opponentsto rush for more than 54 yards (Panthers 114, Eagles 103). It is conceivable Bears could be 5-0, as Chicago blew double digit leads in second half both its losses. Falcons are 2-0 at home, beating Lions 34-21, Chiefs 38-14 (two of three worst teams in NFL)- their three wins are vs Kitna-Thigpen-Rodgers, none of whom are heading to Canton. Bears are 8-1 in last nine series games, winning last three; last five series totals were 34 points or less.

Dolphins (2-2) @ Texans (0-4)-- Resurgent Miami (beat Chargers, New England in last two games) play winless Texan squad that led by 17 with 5:00 to go last week, but somehow lost in regulation, first time in history of NFL that happened. Houston is 3-0 vs Dolphins, winning three tilts by combined total of six points. Miami used innovative Wild Hog attack to run ball for 383 yards in last two games (ran for total of 121 in first two)- their defense allowed average of 73.3 rushing yards in its last three games. Houston allowed 38-31-30-31 points this season, but remember, they did lead Colts 27-10, so they have some talent/ability there.

Rams (0-4) @ Redskins (4-1)-- First game for interim coach Haslett as Rams come off a bye; am guessing they'll blitz more, but will they play harder than they did for Linehan (shouldn't be hard)? Huge trap game for Redskin squad that just won at Dallas/Philly, their two archrivals, and have won four straight since Week 1 loss in Swamp. None of Redskins' wins are by more than seven points. Favorite is 12-0 vs spread in NFC West non-divisional games, with NFC West teams 0-9 vs spread as the underdog, 0-6 on foreign soil.

Jaguars (2-3) @ Broncos (4-1)-- Denver scored 19-16 points in last two games (two TDs, eight FG tries on 21 drives) after scoring 41-39-34 pts in first three games. Chiefs-Bucs ran ball for 213-139 yards vs Denver in last two games, bad news against Jaguar club that ran ball for 236-139 in its two wins, 33-98-38 in its losses. Jax WRs are weak, making Garrard look worse than he is. Teams split last eight series games, with average total in last three, 25.7. ***************.com is America's #1 website. Broncos are 3-0 at home, but the three wins are by total of just six pts. AFC West home favorites are just 1-3 vs spread in non-division games.

Eagles (2-3) @ 49ers (2-3)-- Philly held Rams-Steelers to 3-6 points in their two wins; they gave up 41-24-23 in their losses. 49ers scored 33, 31 points in their wins, 13-17-21 in their losses. Don't foresee Eagles giving up 30+ points here, but Westbrook has broken ribs/ankle issues, hard to believe he'll play and Eagles struggle without him, losing both its road games by four points. Favorite covered all three 49er home games, with SF losing 23-13/30-21, winning 31-13. NFC East teams are 8-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Favorite is 12-0 vs spread in NFC West non-divisional games, 0-9 as underdog, 0-3 at home.

Cowboys (4-1) @ Cardinals (3-2)-- Arizona is 2-0 at home, scoring 72 points in routing Bills/Dolphins (scored nine TDs on 17 drives). Boldin being out (sinus surgery) hurts here, but Warner was 33-42/250 vs Bills, and Cowboys' DB Newman is out here. Dallas is 2-0 on road, winning 28-10 in Cleveland, 27-16 at Lambeau- they're giving up 13 ppg at home, 28.3 at home- go figure. Dallas won last three series games by 17+ pts, but lost four of last five visits to desert. Arizona's turnover ratios have been +5/0/+4 in its wins, -2/-6 in its losses. Cowboys have forced just four takeaways in five games (-4 turnover ratio).

Packers (2-3) @ Seahawks (1-3)-- Home side won last five series games, as Holmgren/Hasselbeck face their old team; Pack lost last three games, allowing 28 ppg; they've given up average of 190.3 rushing yards in last three games. Seahawks were pathetic in last week's loss at Swamp, but had scored 30-37 points in previous two games. NFC North teams are
4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games. Favorite is 12-0 vs spread in NFC West games, with NFC West home favorites 3-0. Hard to endorse either side here, but you figure avid Seattle home crowd will spur on Seahawks after their truly dismal performance last week.

Patriots (3-1) @ Chargers (2-3)-- No love lost here, as Patriots knocked Bolts out of playoffs last two years. San Diego has major injury issues, as they try to stay afloat until their bye week. Pats are out west for the second week in row. Red flag for San Diego is that they've yet to have a negative turnover game in 2-3 start and are just 8 for last 26 on 3rd down plays, as they're struggling to sustain drives. Patriots held three of four opponents to 284 or less total yards, but they Miami ripped them for 216 rushing yards, 461 total yards is worth noting, with Tomlinson and Sproles standing in other huddle.


Monday, October 13

Giants (4-0) @ Browns (1-3)-- Monday night home dogs have long been solid investment, but how in name of Homer Jones can you back the 1-3 Browns here? Cleveland did rally in second half to win at Cincy in game before their bye, but they scored only two TDs on 28 drives in the three losses before that. Lot of fans prefer Quinn to be QB; 1-3 teams have a home field edge only if things start out well. Giant wins are by 9-28-38- 3 points, but this is just second road win for them and their first game in 2008 on natural grass. Last three Giant victims are a combined 1-11. By the way, this was the first-ever Monday Night Football game, in 1971.

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National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Monday, October 13

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Tips and Trends
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New York Giants at Cleveland Browns [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Giants (-7.5, O/U 43.5): The Giants continue to roll this season behind a balanced offense and a stingy defense. New York is throwing for 250 yards per game, while running for 181 yards. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been nasty, only giving up 12.3 points and 236 yards per contest. Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career and he’ll get top receiver Plaxico Burress back this week after a one-game suspension. The Giants have won the last four meetings against the Browns, dating back to 1985. They have also won 13 straight on the road.

Giants are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
Giants are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.

Key Injuries - WR Domenik Hixon (concussion) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Browns: This is a huge game for the 1-3 Browns but if they are going to upset the Giants, Cleveland will need to improve an offense that’s averaging a miserable 11.5 points per game. Derek Anderson will get the start but if he struggles early, the team is prepared to make the switch to Brady Quinn before the game gets out of hand. Part of the Browns bye week was spent in getting a jump on their preparation for the Giants, but most of the practices last Wednesday and Thursday were dedicated to eliminating mistakes such as aggravating penalties, including lining up offside on defense and lining up illegally on offense.

Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Browns are 11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - TE Kellen Winslow (knee) is questionable.
LB Willie McGinest (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

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