Superbowl Projection Week 6 (excel)

[dave T]

Superbowl/Playoff Projections after 5 Weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: CHARGERS
WILDCARDS: STEELERS & DOLPHINS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: PANTHERS
NFC WEST: CARDINALS
WILDCARDS: COWBOYS & EAGLES

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER BILLS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER COWBOYS

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS


TOP 6 TEAMS:*
1-GIANTS
2-COWBOYS
3-EAGLES
4-TITANS
5-PANTHERS
6-BILLS
(Redskins #11)

TOP 6 OFFENSES:**
1-COWBOYS
2-GIANTS
3-BRONCOS
4-CHARGERS
5-SAINTS
6-PACKERS
(Redskins #14)

TOP 6 DEFENSES:***
1-STEELERS
2-GIANTS
3-RAVENS
4-TITANS
5-PANTHERS
6-EAGLES
(Redskins #11)

TOP 6 OFF YRDS PER PT:****
1-JETS
2-CHARGERS
3-BILLS
4-TITANS
5-PACKERS
6-CARDINALS
(Redskins #26)

*Based on my excel program power ratings using 18 key statistical categories.
**Based on my excel program offensive power ratings using 8 key offensive statistical categories.
***Based on my excel program defensive power ratings using 8 key defensive statistical categories.
****The Top 6 teams in this category are solid ATS bets beginning week 8 thru week 15. The winning percentage is significantly higher when ignoring double digit games and laying no more than -5.0 on the road.


After 4 weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: CHARGERS
WILDCARDS: STEELERS & BRONCOS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: BUCS
NFC WEST: 49ERS
WILDCARDS: EAGLES & COWBOYS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER BILLS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER EAGLES

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS


After 3 Weeks:

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: BRONCOS
WILDCARDS: STEELERS & CHARGERS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: FALCONS
NFC WEST: 49ERS
WILDCARDS: COWBOYS & EAGLES

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER RAVENS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER COWBOYS

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS

dt

[jcindaville]

that looks insane Dave, lol


but who knows

i am sorry, cant see the ravens winning the division and cant see the titans in the SB

But thanks for sharing, very interesting

[dave T]

that looks insane Dave, lol


but who knows

i am sorry, cant see the ravens winning the division and cant see the titans in the SB

But thanks for sharing, very interesting

Who do you like in the AFC?

dave

[Dr. Winn]

While I don't see the Phins making the playoffs I know this thing isn't your final version. I do, however, think that the Titans have a legit shot at making the SB...they have a great physical defence, alberto is an animal up the gut and kerry collins has been there before. He manages the game much better than VY was and they are a good receiver away from being real threats...

enjoy your excel predictions and not coming in your thread and seeing all these clowns with their stupid comments like the other threads on here is nice too!

GL dave

[dave T]

While I don't see the Phins making the playoffs I know this thing isn't your final version. I do, however, think that the Titans have a legit shot at making the SB...they have a great physical defence, alberto is an animal up the gut and kerry collins has been there before. He manages the game much better than VY was and they are a good receiver away from being real threats...

enjoy your excel predictions and not coming in your thread and seeing all these clowns with their stupid comments like the other threads on here is nice too!

GL dave

Thanks. Totally agree on Titans. They are the team to beat in the AFC imo...

dt

[thaikarate1]

Dave, how did this do last year at around this time?

[jcindaville]

Who do you like in the AFC?

dave

Dave that is a good question, i am not sure. Guess i should shut up if i dont have a viable pick myself

[dave T]

Dave, how did this do last year at around this time?

The projections "after week 6" have correctly picked either 10 or 11 playoff teams correctly. It always picks the best team, but the best team doesn't necessarily win the Superbowl.

In 2004 it projected Philly over New England. The Eagles lost but covered.

In 2005 it projected Pitt over Seattle, which was correct.

In 2006 it projected San Diego over Chicago. The won 10 straight after the projection, finishing 14-2 but losing to the Pats in round 1 of the Playoffs. The Bears lost to the Colts.

In 2007 it projected the Patriots over the Cowboys, but the Gints showed up.

Regarding the Top 6 Off Yrds Per Pt, they have done extremely well the last 4 seasons from weeks 8-15, but I don't have the results with me at the time...

gl,
dave

[frankb03]

It's interesting the projection has the Redskins behind both the Cowgirls and Eagles after beating both teams on the road in back to back weeks.

[frankb03]

In 2007 it projected the Patriots over the Cowboys, but the Gints showed up.

Wasn't last years NFC projection the Redskins? I remember questioning the the projection on the Skins.

[dave T]

Wasn't last years NFC projection the Redskins? I remember questioning the the projection on the Skins.

Yeah, it was the Redskins after six weeks. I had forgotten because shortly thereafter the Cowboys overtook them...

...thanks for searching it...

dave

[dave T]

It's interesting the projection has the Redskins behind both the Cowgirls and Eagles after beating both teams on the road in back to back weeks.

It's a mystery to me too. Sometimes its smoke and mirrors, but not in this case. I watched both those games. The Redskins just seem to be making it happen when it matters that most. Strangely, they are in the bottom of the league in Offensive yards per point...a category usually reserved for cellar dwellars.

I would be careful jumping on the Redskin bandwagon. They're playing inspired and all that, but the will catch up very quickly and their record is better than their numbers, in the same way that the Chargers (or Eagles) numbers are better than their record.

Week 6 Excel Lines...

http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=154289
dave

[dave T]

Dave, how did this do last year at around this time?

Regarding the record for the Top 6 Teams in Offensive Yards Per Point, here's the results for weeks 8-15, ignoring double digit games, and not laying anymore than 5.0 on the road:

4 Years (2004-2007): 69-24 ATS

NOTES:

1.) The notorious always-upset-minded Week 13 only had a 6-7 ATS record over the 4 seasons.

2.) Last season (2007) had an unusually low number of plays (12) going 11-1 ATS.

3.) All four years were winning seasons.

4.) Going back one more year (2003) showed a 16-10 ATS record which was its worst of the five seasons. Week 13 went 2-2. Five-year mark: 85-34 ATS record, or 77-25 ATS if you skip week 13.

5.) If you're wondering, Weeks 5-7 were 25-20 ATS over the five seasons, and were fickle from year to year. I guess once more stats are in, it starts doing better.

6.) How did it do Week 16 and 17? I don't know. I don't consider the last two weeks with any systems because of playoff implications, spoiler roles, resting players, etc.

gl,
dave

[dave T]

Bump for Roccodean.

It is rare when one of the Top 6 teams in this category are an underdog of more than 3 or 4 points, but if they are a dog of a touchdown or more, pass the game. I forgot to post that criteria in the above numbers.

The criteria is to ignore double digit games, don't lay more than 5.0 on the road, and lay off underdogs or a touchdown or more. For the record, these games are not losing situations, they're just 50-50 juice burners.

It's important to mention that. Because any system can be backfitted. And if these "lay-off" situations were, say, 34-85 ATS, then the system is no good. But if they are mere juice burners, then the system stands.

So if you want more action, you can still go with the Top Six teams...period...with no criteria.....and still have a solid, time-tested system ATS.

dt

[roccodean]

thanks dave...i have my own math system and similar to yours its a good play when the line differs from the projected by 5 or more. It has been good to me over the last few years after tweaking it many of times. We'll see what happens this year!