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NCAAF Week 7 Trends and Indexes 107 through 10/11

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  • #16
    NCAAF


    Saturday, October 11


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    Tips and Trends
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    #5 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma at Dallas [ABC | 12 PM ET]

    Texas: The Longhorns defense has improved dramatically under new coordinator Will Muschamp. Last week Texas held Colorado scoreless over the first 41 minutes while building a 28-0 lead. Texas has only allowed five touchdowns on the year and is allowing just 51.8 yards per game on the ground. Colt McCoy couldn’t quite maintain his 80% completion rate last week, but he did go 23 of 30 for 262 yards and two touchdowns. The Longhorns have already scored 30 touchdowns this year and average 198 yards per game on the ground to help give Texas a balanced offense.

    Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.
    Texas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall.

    Key Injuries - RB Foswhitt Whittaker (knee) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 24

    Oklahoma (-7, O/U 57.5): In one year under quarterback Sam Bradford, the Sooners offense has gone from good to downright scary. Oklahoma is piling up 540 yards per game, including a whopping 361 yards through the air. The Sooners are arguably the most explosive team in college football, but they’re clearly the most explosive team in the first quarter. After outscoring Baylor 28-0 in the first quarter, the Sooners have now outscored their opponents 93-3 in the opening stanza. Also, the Sooners’ first drive of every game has yielded a touchdown.

    Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win.
    The OVER is 4-1 in Oklahoma’s last 5 games overall.

    Key Injuries - C Jon Cooper (knee) is probable.
    DT Gerald McCoy (toe) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 35 (Side Play of the Day)


    #4 LSU at #11 Florida [CBS | 8 PM ET]

    LSU: The Swamp isn’t the most ideal place for a freshman quarterback to make his first-ever road start but that’s the challenge Jarrett Lee faces this week. He is 45-of-77 passing for the season with three interceptions and also engineered the second-half comeback win at Auburn. Lee will lead a Tigers offense that’s ranks first in the SEC and is averaging 198 yards per game thanks to bulldozing RB Charles Scott. Surprisingly, defense is where LSU has struggled this season. The Tigers are giving up 192 yards a game through the air and that could hurt them today against a Florida squad that has speed burners at all the skill positions.

    LSU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 conference games.
    The OVER is 8-1 in LSU’s last 9 conference games.

    Key Injuries - LB Darry Beckwith (knee) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 21

    Florida (-6, O/U 47): The Gators rebounded last week at Arkansas following their unexpected loss to Ole Miss. Florida got its running game going against the Hogs, with freshman Jeff Demps scampering for two scores and Chris Rainey rushing for 104 yards and 10 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown run. Defensively, the Gators have been good against the pass but their rush defense has had problems, giving up close to 100 yards per game. That could be trouble against an LSU team that likes to pound the football behind a big, physical offensive line.

    Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
    The OVER is 9-3 in Florida’s last 12 home games.

    Key Injuries - LB Dustin Doe (hernia) is doubtful.
    OL Jim Tartt (shoulder) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 26


    #17 Oklahoma State at #3 Missouri [ESPN2 | 8 PM ET]

    Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have been humming on offensive this season, averaging 530 yards per game, including a Navy-like 315 yards on the ground. Quarterback Zac Robinson has turned into arguably the most dangerous duel threat quarterback in the country. The sophomore is completing 72 percent of his passes this season and has rushed for 158 yards. This vaunted Cowboys ground game could give Missouri fits Saturday night. Oklahoma State will need to score a lot of points because Missouri should have their way with a Cowboys defense that has struggled at times this season.

    OSU is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
    OSU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.

    Key Injuries - TE Brandon Pettigrew (ankle) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 38 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

    Missouri (-14, O/U 80.5): Chase Daniel leads an offense that is racking up 569 yards a game, including a ridiculous 376 through the air. The Tigers are coming off a thrashing of Nebraska thanks to Daniel who led a near-flawless display of efficiency as the Tigers scored points on seven of their first eight possessions. While the Tigers are an offensive machine, they still need to improve on defense. Missouri is allowing 281 yards per game through the air, which must have Zac Robinson licking his chops coming into this matchup.

    Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win.
    Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games in October.

    Key Injuries - NONE

    PROJECTED SCORE: 51

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