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Ill probably have some more picks closer to gametime. I usually only have one or two 5* per year and I love Zona. Let's keep the 6-2 record rollin'. GL to whoever you play! All my previous picks are at www.byeweekpicks.com
5* Arizona Pick over Buffalo
Arizona is the better team overall, but I love them because this is a classic "NFL" game. Let me explain. Buffalo is 4-0, but don't let this fool you because they have only played on decent team (Jax) and three bad teams (Seattle, Oakland, St. Louis). Arizona is coming off two road losses including a 56-35 blowout by the hands of the Jets last week, but Arizona had 7 turnovers (yes, 7)! This is the NFL and teams bounce back, especially coming home off two road losses and most recently an embarrassing loss. Also, the Cards were on the east coast for a week (they elected to stay there after playing Washington week 3) and they are now returning home. You have to realize that NFL players are like you and me. And you know how it feels after returning home from a week on business. Arizona will be in back in their comfort zone and ready for a victory. Let's break down the stats. Buffalo averages 5.4 yards/play, but this is against teams that have combined to allow 5.9 yards/play. The Bills only average 3.5 YPR (28th in NFL) and will face a pretty good Zona D that allows 4 YPR (13th). In the air T. Edwards is having a pretty good year averaging 7.9 YPPA (7th in the NFL) and Zona's D allows 7.4 YPPA. Arizona has a better offense than the Bills. They average 6 yards/play versus teams that have allowed 5.5 yards/play. On the ground the Cardinals are poor averaging 3.2 YPR (32nd), but Buffalo allows 4.2 YPR (20th). Arizona's strength is their air game that is averaging 8.7 YPPA (3rd) and 290 YPG (4th). They will face a Bills D that is average allowing 6.2 YPPA (11th). The loss of Boldin will result in a slight decrease in the passing game of the Cards but he has very able back ups. The line is right on the money, the Super System has Arizona as a 1 point favorite. There are no trends favoring either team. Arizona applies to a very strong 46-11 ATS trend because of their loss last week. But, this game isn't about stats or trends. It's about the cycles of the NFL and if a team has any heart (which I think Arizona does) they will rise to the challenge. Remember that even the best wager has about an 80% chance of winning because turnovers are unpredictable (75% are random and show no trend) so don't risk your entire bankroll. If Zona wins (or is even) in the turnover category I don't see them losing!
3* San Francisco +3 over New England (Probable upgrade to 4*)
San Fran is a better team than New England! I know, you think I'm crazy, but the stats don't lie. Clear your mind of the 2007 Patriots and concentrate on this year only. New England's offense is clearly not the same as last year without Brady. They are only averaging 16.3 PPG (28th in the NFL) versus teams that have combined to allow 25 PPG!!! They are averaging only 3.9 YPR (21st) and 6.3 YPPA (24th). Defensively, they are not much better. They are allowing an astounding 5 YPR (29th in NFL) and 8.1 YPPA (28th in NFL). They are the only team in league that is worse than 20th in all the offensive and defensive categories. Yes, the only team!
I have rode San Fran the last two weeks and they lost to New Orleans last week primarily because of red zone turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball they are very strong gaining 4.7 YPR (9th in NFL). O'Sullivan is having a good year overall but struggled last week because he was sacked 6 times. This won't be a problem this week as New England only averages 2 sacks/game. The Niners are 4th in the league with 8.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are also very strong allowing 4 YPR (12th) and 6.8 YPPA (11th). This is he first game the Super System (41-22, 66% last year) comes into play because it has the Niners as a 4.5 point favorite. There are no trends favoring either team. The only reason this is not a higher star is because Belichick had 2 weeks to prepare because New England is coming off a bye, but this will not deter me from taking the Niners as a 3* play (possible upgrade). Take advantage of this lop-sided line while people still think this is the 2007 Patriots.
5* Arizona Pick over Buffalo
Arizona is the better team overall, but I love them because this is a classic "NFL" game. Let me explain. Buffalo is 4-0, but don't let this fool you because they have only played on decent team (Jax) and three bad teams (Seattle, Oakland, St. Louis). Arizona is coming off two road losses including a 56-35 blowout by the hands of the Jets last week, but Arizona had 7 turnovers (yes, 7)! This is the NFL and teams bounce back, especially coming home off two road losses and most recently an embarrassing loss. Also, the Cards were on the east coast for a week (they elected to stay there after playing Washington week 3) and they are now returning home. You have to realize that NFL players are like you and me. And you know how it feels after returning home from a week on business. Arizona will be in back in their comfort zone and ready for a victory. Let's break down the stats. Buffalo averages 5.4 yards/play, but this is against teams that have combined to allow 5.9 yards/play. The Bills only average 3.5 YPR (28th in NFL) and will face a pretty good Zona D that allows 4 YPR (13th). In the air T. Edwards is having a pretty good year averaging 7.9 YPPA (7th in the NFL) and Zona's D allows 7.4 YPPA. Arizona has a better offense than the Bills. They average 6 yards/play versus teams that have allowed 5.5 yards/play. On the ground the Cardinals are poor averaging 3.2 YPR (32nd), but Buffalo allows 4.2 YPR (20th). Arizona's strength is their air game that is averaging 8.7 YPPA (3rd) and 290 YPG (4th). They will face a Bills D that is average allowing 6.2 YPPA (11th). The loss of Boldin will result in a slight decrease in the passing game of the Cards but he has very able back ups. The line is right on the money, the Super System has Arizona as a 1 point favorite. There are no trends favoring either team. Arizona applies to a very strong 46-11 ATS trend because of their loss last week. But, this game isn't about stats or trends. It's about the cycles of the NFL and if a team has any heart (which I think Arizona does) they will rise to the challenge. Remember that even the best wager has about an 80% chance of winning because turnovers are unpredictable (75% are random and show no trend) so don't risk your entire bankroll. If Zona wins (or is even) in the turnover category I don't see them losing!
3* San Francisco +3 over New England (Probable upgrade to 4*)
San Fran is a better team than New England! I know, you think I'm crazy, but the stats don't lie. Clear your mind of the 2007 Patriots and concentrate on this year only. New England's offense is clearly not the same as last year without Brady. They are only averaging 16.3 PPG (28th in the NFL) versus teams that have combined to allow 25 PPG!!! They are averaging only 3.9 YPR (21st) and 6.3 YPPA (24th). Defensively, they are not much better. They are allowing an astounding 5 YPR (29th in NFL) and 8.1 YPPA (28th in NFL). They are the only team in league that is worse than 20th in all the offensive and defensive categories. Yes, the only team!
I have rode San Fran the last two weeks and they lost to New Orleans last week primarily because of red zone turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball they are very strong gaining 4.7 YPR (9th in NFL). O'Sullivan is having a good year overall but struggled last week because he was sacked 6 times. This won't be a problem this week as New England only averages 2 sacks/game. The Niners are 4th in the league with 8.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are also very strong allowing 4 YPR (12th) and 6.8 YPPA (11th). This is he first game the Super System (41-22, 66% last year) comes into play because it has the Niners as a 4.5 point favorite. There are no trends favoring either team. The only reason this is not a higher star is because Belichick had 2 weeks to prepare because New England is coming off a bye, but this will not deter me from taking the Niners as a 3* play (possible upgrade). Take advantage of this lop-sided line while people still think this is the 2007 Patriots.
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