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Ncaa Football 10/16 - 10/18
I like the card again this week, so lets get right to it............
Thursday, October 16, 2003
3 STAR: LA LAFAYETTE (+8) OVER New Mexico State
Both of these teams suck, as Lafayette comes in at 0-7 and New Mexico State comes in at 1-5 and their win was over Western New Mexico (who?). I can't see New Mexico State being more than a touchdown better then Lafayette on the road, espically when they are only 6-20 straight up in their last 26 road games. The Ragin' Cajuns could not get the job done last week as a home against previously winless Louisiana Monroe losing 45-42 in their first role as a favorite this season and only the sixth time they have been a favorite since 1992. But, Lafayette is 5-1 against the spread AFTER playing a game as a favorite since 1992. Lafayette is also 2-0 against the spread the last two seasons versus New Mexico State with both games being decided by a field goal. New Mexico State is 2-12 against the spread against conference opponents over the last three seasons, 1-10 against the spread in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 2-11 against the spread as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take the points here!
Friday, October 17, 2003
1 STAR: Tulane (+14) OVER LOUISVILLE
Tulane has quick strike offense that should be able to keep this one close, and Louisville has struggled at home with these types of offensive teams in the past. The Cardinals are 1-6 against the spread in home games versus good passing teams that are averaging 275 or more passing yards per game since 1992 and they are 0-8 against the spread in home games versus poor ball control teams that are averaging 28 or less possession minutes per game since 1992. Louisville is only 2-9 against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992 and Tulane is 2-1 against the spread in the last three games played at Louisville. I'll take the points here for a small play!
Saturday, October 18, 2003
5 STAR: RICE (+3) OVER Navy
Navy has been playing well, with back to back wins over Air Force and Vanderbilt, but Jesus Christ this is the Naval Academy we are talking about here, they should not be laying points on the road against anybody! That might be a little harsh, but at least they should not be laying points here against Rice. The Owls have had the best of this series winning four of the five games between these two teams since 1992 with the lone lose coming at Navy in 1994. Navy is 0-6 against the spread the last three season in games where the line is -3 to +3 and they are only 2-15 straight up in their last seventeen road games and yet they were made a road favorite once earlier this season at Rutgers where they were favored by 2 points. Rutgers went on to clobber them 48-27! This is a very big game for Rice, this is their homecoming game and they have had the extra week off to get ready for this game. Rice stadium will also be sold out for this game, Gallery Furniture's Mattress Mac has bought all of the unsold tickets (he has fucking money to burn) and is giving them away, so we will have a capacity crowd on hand to root for the Owls. Rice is 8-1 against the spread in home games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992, 15-3 against the spread in home games in October games since 1992 and 18-4 against the spread as a home underdog since 1992. Rice gets the win here!
3 STAR: SOUTH CAROLINA (+4.5) OVER Lsu
LSU looked like they were sleep walking last week at home against the Gators, and now they get their first true road test of the season when they travel to South Carolina to face Lou Holtz's Gamecocks. South Carolina already has one upset victory as a home dog this season when they knocked off the then ranked Virginia Cavaliers 31-7 as a three point home underdog. The Gamecocks are 2-1 against the spread in the last three meetings against LSU, 5-1 against the spread after a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons and 28-14 against the spread after playing a game as a favorite since 1992. Last weeks home conference loss by the Tigers to the struggling Gators had to be devastating to LSU and their national title hopes. LSU has not fared after these type of losses in the past as they are only 1-5 against the spread off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and they are only 2-8-1 against the spread the week after they play the Gators. I look for the Tigers to come out flat again in this game. Take the points here, but I think South Carolina wins this one.
2 STAR: NOTRE DAME (+9) OVER Usc
I like the Irish to really give USC a game here. Notre Dame will be looking to revenge last seasons worst loss at the hands of the Trojans and they are 4-1 straight up at home against Southern Cal since 1992. Notre Dame has struggled early in the season, but showed some signs of coming around last week by putting together a nice road win at Pittsburgh. In fact, this is the time of the season when Notre Dame plays their best ball recently, as they are 8-1 against the spread in October games over the last 3 seasons. The Irish lost their last home game three weeks ago to Michigan State, but they are 16-1 straight up in their next home game following a home loss. The Irish are also 11-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog and and 9-2 as underdogs against Pac-10 schools. USC is only 1-5 against the spread in road games when playing against a marginal losing team with a winning percentage of 40% to 49% since 1992 and 1-5 against the spread versus poor offensive teams that are scoring 17 or less points per game since 1992. Also, road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outscoring their opponents by 10 or more points per game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are only 26-59 against the spread since 1992. Irish keep it close!
2 STAR: RUTGERS (+16) OVER Pittsburgh
This is too many points for a struggling Panters team to be laying on the road against a very competitive Rutgers team. The Scarlet Knights might only be 3-3 on the season, but the are one of the hottest teams in the nation against the points, covering the spread in all six of their games this season. The Panthers are only 2-4 against the spread this season and their defense has allowed 81 points in their last three games, so I think them covering more than two touchdowns here is a stretch. Besides, the Rutgers offense has been pretty good, they are averaging just under 30 points per game. Pittsburgh is only 8-25 against the spread following a home loss since 1992 and they better not take Rutgers lightly or else they will get another "L" hung on them here. Take the points!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 5-3 (+8.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 16-8 (+21.6 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 8-5 (+5.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 9-4 (+4.6 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 38-20 (+39.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $3970.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
Thursday, October 16, 2003
3 STAR: LA LAFAYETTE (+8) OVER New Mexico State
Both of these teams suck, as Lafayette comes in at 0-7 and New Mexico State comes in at 1-5 and their win was over Western New Mexico (who?). I can't see New Mexico State being more than a touchdown better then Lafayette on the road, espically when they are only 6-20 straight up in their last 26 road games. The Ragin' Cajuns could not get the job done last week as a home against previously winless Louisiana Monroe losing 45-42 in their first role as a favorite this season and only the sixth time they have been a favorite since 1992. But, Lafayette is 5-1 against the spread AFTER playing a game as a favorite since 1992. Lafayette is also 2-0 against the spread the last two seasons versus New Mexico State with both games being decided by a field goal. New Mexico State is 2-12 against the spread against conference opponents over the last three seasons, 1-10 against the spread in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 2-11 against the spread as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take the points here!
Friday, October 17, 2003
1 STAR: Tulane (+14) OVER LOUISVILLE
Tulane has quick strike offense that should be able to keep this one close, and Louisville has struggled at home with these types of offensive teams in the past. The Cardinals are 1-6 against the spread in home games versus good passing teams that are averaging 275 or more passing yards per game since 1992 and they are 0-8 against the spread in home games versus poor ball control teams that are averaging 28 or less possession minutes per game since 1992. Louisville is only 2-9 against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992 and Tulane is 2-1 against the spread in the last three games played at Louisville. I'll take the points here for a small play!
Saturday, October 18, 2003
5 STAR: RICE (+3) OVER Navy
Navy has been playing well, with back to back wins over Air Force and Vanderbilt, but Jesus Christ this is the Naval Academy we are talking about here, they should not be laying points on the road against anybody! That might be a little harsh, but at least they should not be laying points here against Rice. The Owls have had the best of this series winning four of the five games between these two teams since 1992 with the lone lose coming at Navy in 1994. Navy is 0-6 against the spread the last three season in games where the line is -3 to +3 and they are only 2-15 straight up in their last seventeen road games and yet they were made a road favorite once earlier this season at Rutgers where they were favored by 2 points. Rutgers went on to clobber them 48-27! This is a very big game for Rice, this is their homecoming game and they have had the extra week off to get ready for this game. Rice stadium will also be sold out for this game, Gallery Furniture's Mattress Mac has bought all of the unsold tickets (he has fucking money to burn) and is giving them away, so we will have a capacity crowd on hand to root for the Owls. Rice is 8-1 against the spread in home games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992, 15-3 against the spread in home games in October games since 1992 and 18-4 against the spread as a home underdog since 1992. Rice gets the win here!
3 STAR: SOUTH CAROLINA (+4.5) OVER Lsu
LSU looked like they were sleep walking last week at home against the Gators, and now they get their first true road test of the season when they travel to South Carolina to face Lou Holtz's Gamecocks. South Carolina already has one upset victory as a home dog this season when they knocked off the then ranked Virginia Cavaliers 31-7 as a three point home underdog. The Gamecocks are 2-1 against the spread in the last three meetings against LSU, 5-1 against the spread after a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons and 28-14 against the spread after playing a game as a favorite since 1992. Last weeks home conference loss by the Tigers to the struggling Gators had to be devastating to LSU and their national title hopes. LSU has not fared after these type of losses in the past as they are only 1-5 against the spread off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and they are only 2-8-1 against the spread the week after they play the Gators. I look for the Tigers to come out flat again in this game. Take the points here, but I think South Carolina wins this one.
2 STAR: NOTRE DAME (+9) OVER Usc
I like the Irish to really give USC a game here. Notre Dame will be looking to revenge last seasons worst loss at the hands of the Trojans and they are 4-1 straight up at home against Southern Cal since 1992. Notre Dame has struggled early in the season, but showed some signs of coming around last week by putting together a nice road win at Pittsburgh. In fact, this is the time of the season when Notre Dame plays their best ball recently, as they are 8-1 against the spread in October games over the last 3 seasons. The Irish lost their last home game three weeks ago to Michigan State, but they are 16-1 straight up in their next home game following a home loss. The Irish are also 11-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog and and 9-2 as underdogs against Pac-10 schools. USC is only 1-5 against the spread in road games when playing against a marginal losing team with a winning percentage of 40% to 49% since 1992 and 1-5 against the spread versus poor offensive teams that are scoring 17 or less points per game since 1992. Also, road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outscoring their opponents by 10 or more points per game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are only 26-59 against the spread since 1992. Irish keep it close!
2 STAR: RUTGERS (+16) OVER Pittsburgh
This is too many points for a struggling Panters team to be laying on the road against a very competitive Rutgers team. The Scarlet Knights might only be 3-3 on the season, but the are one of the hottest teams in the nation against the points, covering the spread in all six of their games this season. The Panthers are only 2-4 against the spread this season and their defense has allowed 81 points in their last three games, so I think them covering more than two touchdowns here is a stretch. Besides, the Rutgers offense has been pretty good, they are averaging just under 30 points per game. Pittsburgh is only 8-25 against the spread following a home loss since 1992 and they better not take Rutgers lightly or else they will get another "L" hung on them here. Take the points!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 5-3 (+8.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 16-8 (+21.6 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 8-5 (+5.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 9-4 (+4.6 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 38-20 (+39.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $3970.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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