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NFL Week 5 Trends and Indexes 10/5 and 10/6

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  • NFL Week 5 Trends and Indexes 10/5 and 10/6

    NFL
    Long Sheet


    Week 5



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, October 5

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (0 - 3) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANAPOLIS is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    HOUSTON is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (4 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BALTIMORE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
    SAN DIEGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
    SAN DIEGO is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    SAN DIEGO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS CITY (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON (3 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 120-85 ATS (+26.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHICAGO (2 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 3) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ATLANTA (2 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (1 - 2) at NY GIANTS (3 - 0) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 17-42 ATS (-29.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at DENVER (3 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    DENVER is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 4:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUFFALO (4 - 0) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 4:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
    BUFFALO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
    BUFFALO is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CINCINNATI (0 - 4) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 4:15 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    JACKSONVILLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday, October 6

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    MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2008, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • #2
    NFL
    Short Sheet


    Week 5



    Sunday, October 5th

    Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 ET
    Indianapolis: 21-6 Over Away off SU loss as favorite
    Houston: 8-0 Over vs. division

    Tennessee at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
    Tennessee: 12-3 ATS Away off DD home win
    Baltimore: 2-9 ATS off SU loss

    San Diego at Miami, 1:00 ET
    San Diego: 13-4 ATS as favorite
    Miami: 11-28 ATS off SU win as underdog

    Kansas City at Carolina, 1:00 ET
    Kansas City: 12-26 ATS Away off division win
    Carolina: 8-0 Under at home off DD home win

    Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
    Washington: 28-12 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
    Philadelphia: 12-3 Under as home favorite

    Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
    Chicago: 18-6 Over as favorite
    Detroit: 8-18 ATS vs. conference

    Atlanta at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
    Atlanta: 4-0 ATS off Away division loss
    Green Bay: 9-2 Over off SU loss

    Seattle at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
    Seattle: 0-6 ATS Away off win by 14+ points
    NY Giants: 16-7 ATS L23 games

    Tampa Bay at Denver, 4:05 ET
    Tampa Bay: 41-22 Under off BB wins
    Denver: 0-11 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play

    New England at San Francisco, 4:15 ET
    New England: 9-0 ATS in October
    San Francisco: 5-10 ATS in road game

    Buffalo at Arizona, 4:15 ET
    Buffalo: 17-4 ATS vs. NFC West
    Arizona: 17-6 Over on turf

    Cincinnati at Dallas, 4:15 ET
    Cincinnati: 7-2 Under off SU loss as favorite
    Dallas: 3-10 ATS off SU loss as DD favorite

    Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, 8:15 ET NBC
    Pittsburgh: 0-7 ATS Away off SU win
    Jacksonville: 9-1 ATS at home vs. Pittsburgh



    Monday, October 6th

    Minnesota at New Orleans, 8:30 ET ESPN
    Minnesota: 42-19 Over Away off ATS loss
    New Orleans: 8-1 Over off home win

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL


      Week 5



      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend Sheet
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      1:00 PM ATLANTA vs. GREEN BAY
      Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
      Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
      Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
      Green Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home


      1:00 PM CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
      Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
      Chicago is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Detroit
      Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
      Detroit is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games


      1:00 PM INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
      Indianapolis is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Houston
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
      Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
      Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


      1:00 PM KANSAS CITY vs. CAROLINA
      Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
      Kansas City is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
      Carolina is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
      Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home


      1:00 PM SAN DIEGO vs. MIAMI
      San Diego is 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 games
      San Diego is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
      Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
      Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Diego


      1:00 PM SEATTLE vs. NY GIANTS
      Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
      NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
      NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home


      1:00 PM TENNESSEE vs. BALTIMORE
      Tennessee is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
      Tennessee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
      Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
      Baltimore is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games


      1:00 PM WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
      Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
      Washington is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
      Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Washington
      Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington


      4:05 PM TAMPA BAY vs. DENVER
      The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
      Tampa Bay is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
      Denver is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
      Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


      4:15 PM BUFFALO vs. ARIZONA
      Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
      Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
      Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
      Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo


      4:15 PM CINCINNATI vs. DALLAS
      Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Dallas
      Dallas is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
      Dallas is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games


      4:15 PM NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN FRANCISCO
      New England is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
      New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
      San Francisco is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
      San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games


      8:15 PM PITTSBURGH vs. JACKSONVILLE
      Pittsburgh is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
      The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
      Jacksonville is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
      Jacksonville is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh



      Monday, October 6

      8:30 PM MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
      Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
      Minnesota is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
      New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
      The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games

      Comment


      • #4
        Home 31
        Away 29

        Dogs 27
        Fav 33

        Overs 35
        Unders 25

        Every Last Year And This Year If You Bet Totals And Go With The Public You Would Have Made Good Money!


        Points That Matter

        9 Games Out Of 60....... 15%

        Comment


        • #5
          National Football League – Write up

          NFL
          Write-up


          Week 5 NFL games

          Sunday, October 5

          Colts (1-2) @ Texans (0-3)-- Home opener for Houston squad that lost 11 of 12 to Colts, allowing 30+ points in five of last six series games. Colts are 5-1 in Reliant, with wins by 20-3-9-18-6; last six series totals were all 48+. Texan offense showed some life last week; Schaub passed for 29-40/307, averaging 7.7 ypa with no turnovers. Colts are off bye, after last two games were decided by total of five points. Only win for Indy this year was at Minnesota, when they trailed 15-0 in 3rd quarter. Keep an eye on weather; roof at Reliant will be open all year, and field wasn't designed to drain well. AFC South division dogs are 3-1.

          Titans (4-0) @ Ravens (3-0)-- Short week off very physical game for the Ravens; rookie Flacco passed first road test easily; Baltimore is 6-2 vs Titans, with six of last seven series totals 37 or less. Tennessee split last eight visits here, are 4-0 so far this year, running ball for 136 yards/game. Titans have 12 takeaways (+6), forced 20 three/outs on 49 opponent drives. Interesting to see if Titans can run ball on Raven defense that is giving up just 69 yds/game on ground- they've forced 19 three/outs on 36 drives, allowing just two TDs. Titans outscored foes 47-10 in the second half of games. Titans scored 24-31-30 points in their last three games.

          Chargers (2-2) @ Dolphins (1-2)-- San Diego averted disaster last week in Oakland, rallying from 15-0 halftime deficit for 28-18 win; this is the third road game in four weeks for Bolts, while Dolphins are off its bye. Miami won last six series games, with four of six by 10+ points. SD lost last five visits herem with three losses by 21+ poinrs; they get Cooper back (NFL suspension), which really helps defense that allowed foes to convert just four of last 23 on third down. Not sure what to make of the Fish after 38-13 win in Foxboro, week after they got pasted by Arizona in the desert. All four San Diego games in 2008 have gone over the total.

          Chiefs (1-3) @ Panthers (3-1)-- Carolina won both its home games, by 20-17 (-3)/24-9 (-7) scores, allowing one offensive TD on 23 drives (9 three/outs). Panther OL was banged up last week, but Smith's return has revitalized passing game- they gained 10.1 ypa last week, after gaining 5.9/4.3/4.6 in first three games. Chiefs ran ball for 213 yards in first win last week, have 397 rushing yards in last two games- they're 0-2 on road losing 17-10 in Foxboro (+16), 38-14 in Atlanta (+5), with 11 three/outs on 23 road drives. Panthers giving up 114.3 rushing yards/game, average figure. NFC South teams are 7-2 vs spread, in non-divisional contests.

          Redskins (3-1) @ Eagles (2-2)-- Health of Westbrook huge Eagle worry after they couldn't run ball in from 1-yard with game on line in Chicago Sunday night; they split last six games vs Redskins, after winning seven in row before that. Eagles didn't allowed TD in first two away games (11 three/outs, 23 drives). Road team won five of last seven in series; Skins won two of last three games played here. Washington is off big win vs Cowboys in Dallas (gained 381 yards) as Campbell improves more and more with each game. Redskins had 11-yard edge in field position in last two games. Three of last four series totals at this site were 34 or less.

          Bears (2-2) @ Lions (0-3)-- Detroit trailed 21-0/21-0/21-3 in first three games, so even though GM Millen finallhy got the boot, his handiwork remains, although fans figure to be more supportive with Millen finally gone. Last three Chicago games were decided by total of 10 points; dogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in Bear games this season. Lion defense allowed an average of 207.7 rushing yards per game, with only one takeaway (TO ratio, -5). QB Kitna got hurt at very end of their last game, not sure of status for this- would be fairly big dropoff to backup. Bears had double digit leads in both losses. Lions are just 38-76 passing in last two games.

          Falcons (2-2) @ Packers (2-2)-- Ryan averaged 3.5 ypa in both road tilts so far, both 24-9 Atlanta losses; he averaged 11.1/10.7 yps in his home games, both wins. Rodgers has some kind of shoulder injury; severity is unknown, but there is chance LSU rookie Flynn could see time. Packers allowed 27.3 ppg last three weeks- they ran ball for 139-123 yards the first two games, 84-28 in last two. Passing averages are also down, from 8.1/8.3, to 5.7/4.4, as teams study Rodgers on film. This is Falcons' first visit to Lambeau since frigid '02 playoff win. Four of last five totals in this series were 45+. Atlanta covered just one of last five road games.

          Seahawks (1-2) @ Giants (3-0)-- Plaxico Burress is out (suspension) for this game, so NY without its best offensive player. Home side won last eight series games, with Seattle losing last four visits here, three by a FG each; four of last five series games were won by three points or less. In Coughlin era, Giants are 1-3 after their bye; both sides here are coming off bye. SEahawks lost only road game 34-10 in Buffalo, then gave up 33 at home to 49ers; over is 3-0 in their games. Red flag for Giants is the one takeaway in three games. Seattle ran ball for 414 yards in last two games, is capable underdog, but NFC West non-division road dogs: 0-5.

          Buccaneers (3-1) @ Broncos (3-1)-- Another homecoming for Greise, as Bucs visit Mile High City for first time in dozen years. Tampa won lita last three games, scoring 27 ppg (seven TDs, 37 drives, only 10 3/outs). Defense has scored TD in three of four games. Bucs split first two road games, losing 24-20 in Superdome, winning in OT at Chicago, as Greise threw 67 passes without being sacked. Denver allowed 213 yards on the ground in upset loss at Arrowhead last week; they've allowed 38-32-33 points in last three games (10 TDs, 11 FGA on last 38 drives). NFC has 7-6 lead over AFC, even after 0-3 Sunday in Week 4. NFC South clubs are 7-2 vs spread nin non-conference games.

          Patriots (2-1) @ 49ers (2-2)-- Niners scored 33-31 points in their wins, 13-17 in losses; hard to believe they would get 30+ vs Belichick defense, especially with NE off its bye. Pats allowed 10-10-38 points so far this year. In two games Cassel started, patriots gained 260-216 total yards. Interesting to see what adjustments theymade during off week. Eight of 49ers' last 32 drives started in enemy territory, so O'Sullivan is getting good field position, but he tossed pair of end zone INTs last week, as Niners lost to Saint club that had two turnovers, 13 penalties. Three of four 49er games stayed under. NFC West underdogs are 0-7 vs spread.

          Bills (4-0) @ Cardinals (2-2)-- Arizona scored 35 points in one half last week, still lost by 21, as they turned the ball over five times in first half, trailed 34-0 at halftime. Buffalo barely beat Raiders at home, trailed by a point in fourth quarter at St Louis, now they go up in class, visiting an explosive Arizona team that averaged 13 ypa in its only home game, a 31-10 win vs Miami. In first four games, Arizona rushing attempts have dropped every game: 39-31-23-15, so expect them to re-emphasize run here, especially if dynamic WR Boldin (head) unable to play. Bills have at least one 80+-yard TD drive in every game, scored 20+ in every game

          Bengals (0-4) @ Cowboys (3-1)-- If Palmer plays, 17 points is awful lot to give potentially potent Bengal offense; if he sits out again (elbow), 17 might not get you to halftime, vs Dallas squad smarting from last week's loss to rival Redskins. Cowboys scoring 30 ppg in first four games, but are allowing 31.5 ppg at home- Dallas wins are by 18-4-11 points. Cincy lost four of five viists here, with lone win 20 years ago; all four losses were by 12+ points. NFC East favorites are 6-1 vs spread, but favorites of 10+ points are 0-5 in NFL this season. Bengals' last two losses were in OT in Swamp, 20-12 vs Cleveland (led 6-3 at half); so they're not as bad as the record might indicate.

          Steelers (3-1) @ Jaguars (2-2)-- Pittsburgh travelling on short week after physical, emotional OT win in divisional game Monday night, that saw several Steelers get hurt, including two for season. Jags are also off win in OT, vs divisional foe; their last three games were all decided by four points or less. Jacksonville won last four series games (three of four at Heinz Field), as home side lost five of last six in series. Streelers are 3-7 in Jacksonville. In last three weeks, Steelers scored 10-6-23 points, with offense scoring just two TDs on 33 drives- they kicked FGs on their last three red zone visits, and have one TD in 21 drives in road games. Jags ran ball for 375 yards in last two games; another physical contest looms.


          Monday, October 6

          Vikings (1-3) @ Saints (2-2)-- Expect heavier dose of Peterson running ball now that star OT McKinnie (NFL suspension) is back; Vikings are 7-1 in last eight series games, scoring 32-38 in last two Superdome trips (32-31/38-31). Only once in last eight series meetings have Saints held Vikings under 31. Saints had eight TDs on 21 drives in last two games, converting 14 of last 25 on third down- only Redskins held them under 435 total yards, 8.4 ypa. Minnesota scored just two TDs, six FGs on first nine red zone drives- their ypa was 6.0/5.3 in Frerotte's starts, after they averaged 4.7/4.4 with Jackson udner center. Loser here is in trouble in playoff race. Should be entertaining Monday night game.

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Last edited by pm530; 10-02-2008, 03:31 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            National Football League – Dunkel Index

            NFL

            Dunkel Index

            Indianapolis at Houston

            The Colts look to bounce back from their last-second loss to Jacksonville two weeks ago and build on their 15-6 ATS record as a road favorite of 3 points or less. Indianapolis is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cots favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

            SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5

            Game 405-406: Indianapolis at Houston
            Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.065; Houston 129.455
            Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 51
            Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 47
            Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Over

            Game 407-408: Tennessee at Baltimore
            Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 139.916; Baltimore 133.8555
            Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 30
            Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 33 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

            Game 409-410: San Diego at Miami
            Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.430; Miami 128.483
            Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 42
            Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 45
            Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Under

            Game 411-412: Kansas City at Carolina
            Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.465; Carolina 132.557
            Dunkel Line: Carolina by 7; 35
            Vegas Line: Carolina by 9 1/2; 38
            Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9 1/2); Under

            Game 413-414: Washington at Philadelphia
            Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.820; Philadelphia 141.327
            Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 48
            Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6; 42 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6); Over

            Game 415-416: Chicago at Detroit
            Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.570; Detroit 125.489
            Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 50
            Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

            Game 417-418: Atlanta at Green Bay
            Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 125.243; Green Bay 137.767
            Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 12 1/2; 47 1/2
            Vegas Line: No Line
            Dunkel Pick: N/A

            Game 419-420: Seattle at NY Giants
            Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.439; NY Giants 135.582
            Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 40
            Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 43 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7); Under

            Game 421-422: Tampa Bay at Denver
            Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.301; Denver 135.412
            Dunkel Line: Denver by 6; 52
            Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 48
            Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); Over

            Game 423-424: New England at San Francisco
            Dunkel Ratings: New England 132.655; San Francisco 124.763
            Dunkel Line: New England by 8; 37
            Vegas Line: New England by 3; 41 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under

            Game 425-426: Buffalo at Arizona
            Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.410; Arizona 128.577
            Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 50
            Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 44
            Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+1); Over

            Game 427-428: Cincinnati at Dallas
            Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 125.477; Dallas 139.598
            Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14; 42
            Vegas Line: Dallas by 17; 44
            Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+17); Under

            Game 429-430: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
            Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.658; Jacksonville 137.065
            Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1 1/2; 40
            Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 4; 36
            Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+4); Over

            MONDAY, OCTOBER 6

            Game 431-432: Minnesota at New Orleans
            Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.342; New Orleans 134.667
            Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 49
            Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 46 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

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            Comment


            • #7
              10/02/08
              12:11 PM Lineups
              NFL
              The Seahawks are expected to have wide receivers Deion Branch (knee) and Bobby Engram (shoulder) back in the starting lineup Sunday againt the Giants.

              10/02/08
              12:09 PM Lineups
              NFL
              The Colts are expected to have LT Tony Ugoh, RT Ryan Diem and C Jeff Saturday back for Sunday's game at Houston.

              10/02/08
              12:06 PM Buzz Alert
              NFL
              The Packers will reportedly start rookie QB Matt Flynn over Aaron Rodgers (shoulder) this Sunday against the Falcons.

              10/01/08
              05:11 PM Injury Alert
              NFL
              Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (neck) has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday's game against the Bills.


              Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

              Comment


              • #8
                National Football League - Tips & Trends

                NFL


                Sunday, October 5

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                Tips and Trends
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                Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles [FOX | 1 PM ET]

                Redskins: The Redskins have won three straight after dropping their opener against the Giants. Last week Washington played its best game of the year in upsetting the Super Bowl favorite Cowboys on the road. Jason Campbell is starting to shine in Jim Zorn’s West Coast offense. Campbell went 20-of-31 for 231 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys, while the Redskins defense held Dallas to just 44 yards rushing. The Skins did give up two sacks and their offensive line has struggled in pass protection at times early in the year. That could be a problem this week facing the Eagles blitzing defense.

                Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
                Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.

                Key Injuries - DE Jason Taylor (calf) is OUT.
                CB Shawn Springs (calf) is OUT.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 20

                Eagles (-5, O/U 43): The Eagles blew plenty of opportunities against the Bears last Sunday night and now find themselves sitting at 2-2 with an important game versus the 3-1 Redskins looming large today. Philly really missed RB Brian Westbrook last week when they couldn’t punch the ball in from the 1-yard line late in the game. Westbrook’s ankle is doing better and he’s expected to start against Washington. Defensively, the Eagles have been stout against the run but are allowing an alarming 245 yards per game through the air.

                Eagles are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
                Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

                Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) is questionable.
                G Shawn Andrews (back) is questionable.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 24



                Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

                Bucs: The Bucs continue to win with Brian Griese under center, despite the fact that he’s been turning the ball over. Griese has thrown six interceptions in his last two starts and is currently 29th in the NFL with a 62.5 quarterback rating and 27th with a completion percentage of 55.5. So what does Jon Gruden have to say about those numbers? “You got some real good stats there,” Gruden said. “He’s 3-0 as a starter, how ‘bout that?” Fortunately for the Bucs, they have taken advantage of good field position created by their defense. Tampa Bay has scored 48 points off turnovers this season, scoring at least seven points off takeaways in every game.

                Bucs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
                Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

                Key Injuries - WR Joey Galloway (foot) is questionable.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 20

                Broncos (-3, O/U 48): The Broncos are coming off a stunning loss to the previous winless Chiefs. While the Broncos offense remains one of the NFL’s best, their defense has been terrible through four games. Denver is giving up a ridiculous 29.3 points and 408 yards per game. Jay Cutler threw for 361 yards against Kansas City but his two interceptions proved costly. Cutler is pretty much carrying the entire offense on his back with Denver struggling to run the ball consistently. The Broncos really needs to sure up a rush defense that allowed 198 yards to Larry Johnson last week.

                Broncos are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
                The OVER is 21-5-1 in Denver's last 27 games overall.

                Key Injuries - C Tom Nalen (knee) is questionable.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)



                Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars [NBC | 8:15 PM ET]

                Steelers (-4, O/U 37): The Steelers are coming off an emotional, hard-fought win over the Ravens on Monday night and now have to travel south to face a Jaguars team that defeated them twice last season. The Steelers offensive line has been struggling all year long and Ben Roethlisberger will have even more pressure on him tonight with Pittsburgh’s top two running backs, Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, both out for this game. As usual, Pittsburgh’s defense is a huge reason for the team’s success, allowing 14.1 points and 236 yards per game.

                Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Jacksonville.
                Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

                Key Injuries - RB Willie Parker (knee) is OUT.
                RB Rashard Mendenhall (shoulder) is OUT.
                G Kendall Simmons (ankle) is OUT.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 14 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

                Jaguars (-4, O/U 37): The Jaguars could be sitting at 0-4 right now but thanks to two late rallies against the Colts and Texans, Jacksonville is 2-2 and in second place in the AFC South. The Jaguars spent the offseason trying to improve their pass rush but it hasn’t happened so far. The Jaguars, who rank 24th overall in defense, are ranked 27th in sacks per pass attempt with just five in the first four games. Last year, they ranked 12th in that department with 37 sacks. Quarterback David Garrard is coming off his best game of the season, tossing for 236 yards and a touchdown last week against Houston.

                Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5.
                The OVER is 4-1 in Jacksonville's last 5 home games.

                Key Injuries - S Reggie Nelson (knee) is questionable.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 17

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                Comment


                • #9
                  National Football League - Tips & Trends

                  NFL


                  Monday, October 6

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                  Tips and Trends
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                  Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

                  Vikings: The Vikings daunting early season schedule continues tonight with a trip to 2-2 New Orleans. Quarterback Frerotte led the Vikings to a 20-10 victory over Carolina in his first start, but Minnesota fell to 1-3 by making far too many mistakes in a 30-17 loss last Sunday to the Titans. Minnesota is getting a key cog of its offense back this week. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie rejoined the Vikings after being suspended for the first four games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. The Vikings lead this series 19-7 and are 7-5 at New Orleans. The Vikings have won 11 of the past 14 games between the two teams.

                  Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
                  Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.

                  Key Injuries - OT Bryant McKinnie (suspension) is expected to return.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 20

                  Saints (-3, O/U 47): Fueled by Drew Brees’ league-high 1,343 yards through the air, the Saints are leading the NFL in passing yards with 327.2 yards per game. That could be a huge advantage tonight facing a Vikings defense that has had trouble in the past defending strong passing teams. The Saints still rank near the bottom of the NFL when it comes to running the football but the team expects that to change soon with the return of Deuce McAllister. McAllister saw his first action of the season last week against San Francisco and is expected to be more involved in the offense tonight. The Saints will need to sure up a rush defense that’s allowing 122 yards per game with Adrian Peterson coming to town.

                  Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
                  Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5.

                  Key Injuries - TE Jeremy Shockey (hernia) is OUT.
                  WR Marques Colston (thumb) is OUT.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)

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                  Comment


                  • #10

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