NCAAF Week 6 Trends and Indexes 9/30 through 10/4

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College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

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Wednesday's Game

Boise State won its last six games vs Louisiana Tech by average of 24 points; they won Tech's last two visits to the blue carpet, both by 55-14 scores. Broncos covered 17 of last 24 as a home favorite. Tech lost its only road game, 29-0 at Kansas (yardage was 538-267, KU) Boise has freshman QB who engineered 37-32 win at Oregon (was 24-6 at half)- they were 24-36/386 passing at Autzen. Tech covered only five of last 24 as road underdog.

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College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

Louisiana Tech at Boise State
The Broncos come off an emotional upset win at Oregon, but could have trouble avoiding a letdown as Boise comes into this contest on a 1-4 ATS streak in Game Four. Louisiana Tech is the pick (+24 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Boise State favored by just 20. Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+24 1/2).

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 303-304: Louisiana Tech at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 79.720; Boise State 99.546
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20; 50
Vegas Line: Boise State by 24 1/2; 56 ½
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+24 1/2); Under

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College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Tuesday, September 30

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Tips and Trends
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Louisiana Tech at Boise State [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

La Tech: The Bulldogs opened the season with a home win over Mississippi State and then didn’t put up much of a fight in getting blanked at No. 14 Kansas. Quarterback Taylor Bennett has struggled against Division I defenses, going just 26-for-73. His completion percentage is a woeful 41 percent on the season and he now faces a tough Boise State defense. The Bulldogs will probably need to score some points tonight, seeing that their defense ranks dead last in the country against the pass, allowing 348.7 yards per game through the air.

La Tech is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following a bye week.
La Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - WR Josh Wheeler (concussion) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Boise State (-22.5, O/U 57): The Broncos offense has shown signs of being explosive at times but on the other hand, they have been shutout in four of their past six quarters. Quarterback Kellen Moore averages 306 passing yards a game and he should feast on an undermanned Louisiana Tech secondary. Moore is currently ranked seventh in the nation in pass efficiency. The Broncos defense has been stout all year, holding Oregon to a season-low in yards and forcing four Duck turnovers. Louisiana Tech traditionally gives Boise State trouble, but that happens more at home than on the Smurf Turf in Boise.

Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on turf.

Key Injuries - LB Derrell Acrey (leg) is probable.
RB Doug Martin (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41

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Sorry! The date on the two prior post should be: Wednesday, October 1

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[Shiprec]

Thanks man!!!!!!

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College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

Oregon State at Utah
The Beavers try to pull off another upset, but run into a Utah team that is 6-0 ATS over the last three seasons when favored between 10 1/2 and 21 points. The Utes are the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has Utah favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Utah (-11). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 305-306: Pittsburgh at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 83.239; South Florida 100.687
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 17 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: South Florida by 13 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-13 1/2); Under

Game 307-308: Memphis at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 72.301; UAB 72.452
Dunkel Line: Even; 60
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+3 1/2); Over

Game 309-310: Oregon State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 91.694; Utah 105.447
Dunkel Line: Utah by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Utah by 11; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-11); Under


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3

Game 311-312: Cincinnati at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 86.452; Marshall 86.577
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: BYU at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 104.967; Utah State 69.852
Dunkel Line: BYU by 35; 54
Vegas Line: BYU by 28; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-28); Under


SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4

Game 315-316: Boston College at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 93.923; NC State 86.456
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 7 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Boston College by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+9); Under

Game 317-318: Rutgers at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 79.298; West Virginia 96.765
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 17 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-14); Over

Game 319-320: Penn State at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 106.784; Purdue 90.445
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 16; 62
Vegas Line: Penn State by 13 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-13 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Iowa at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 90.347; Michigan State 100.562
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-7 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Indiana at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 82.872; Minnesota 92.288
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 58
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over

Game 325-326: Maryland at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 97.643; Virginia 80.350
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 17; 40
Vegas Line: Maryland by 13 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-13 1/2); Under

Game 327-328: Connecticut at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 96.123; North Carolina 99.437
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 3; 42
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+7); Under

Game 329-330: South Carolina at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 90.957; Mississippi 96.763
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-2); Over

Game 331-332: Texas Tech at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 100.717; Kansas State 97.591
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 3; 62
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 7 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+7 1/2); Under

Game 333-334: Kansas at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 98.808; Iowa State 89.281
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Kansas by 13; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+13); Over

Game 335-336: Duke at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 88.418; Georgia Tech 98.075
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 9 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 14 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+14 1/2); Over

Game 337-338: Auburn at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 95.703; Vanderbilt 96.927
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Auburn by 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+4); Over

Game 339-340: UNLV at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 76.130; Colorado State 80.647
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 4 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-2); Over

Game 341-342: Ohio at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 73.472; Western Michigan 76.286
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 3; 53
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 5 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+5 1/2); Over

Game 343-344: Stanford at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 89.014; Notre Dame 92.091
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+7); Over

Game 345-346: Army at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: Army 64.801; Tulane 80.146
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 15 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tulane by 19 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Army (+19 1/2); Under

Game 347-348: Temple at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 69.437; Miami (OH) 74.422
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 5; 36
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+7); Under

Game 349-350: Illinois at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 93.417; Michigan 93.241
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+3); Over

Game 351-352: Missouri at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 111.236; Nebraska 94.567
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 17; 75
Vegas Line: Missouri by 10 1/2; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-10 1/2); Over

Game 353-354: Texas at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 108.978; Colorado 92.414
Dunkel Line: Texas by 16 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Texas by 13 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-13 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: Florida State at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 95.534; Miami (FL) 93.423
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+2 1/2); Under

Game 357-358: Arizona State at California
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 88.281; California 105.114
Dunkel Line: California by 17; 60
Vegas Line: California by 9 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-9 1/2); Over

Game 359-360: Florida at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 108.334; Arkansas 81.163
Dunkel Line: Florida by 27; 63
Vegas Line: Florida by 24 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-24 12); Over

Game 361-362: Kentucky at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 97.928; Alabama 111.390
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Alabama by 16 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+16 1/2); Under

Game 363-364: SMU at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 64.842; Central Florida 82.880
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 18; 64
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 14; 56
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-14); Over

Game 365-366: Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 60.709; Bowling Green 83.765
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 23; 58
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 20 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-20 1/2); Over

Game 367-368: Navy at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 88.433; Air Force 91.563
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 3; 56
Vegas Line: Air Force by 6; 52
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+6); Over

Game 369-370: Nevada at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 86.752; Idaho 59.003
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 28; 64
Vegas Line: Nevada by 24; 68
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-24); Under

Game 371-372: San Diego State at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 72.959; TCU 102.963
Dunkel Line: TCU by 30; 42
Vegas Line: TCU by 24 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-24 1/2); Under

Game 373-374: Washington State at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 69.336; UCLA 90.521
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 21; 52
Vegas Line: UCLA by 17; 56
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-17); Under

Game 375-376: Washington at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 84.413; Arizona 101.185
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 21 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+21 1/2); Over

Game 377-378: Northern Illinois at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 81.489; Tennessee 95.661
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 16; 45
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+16); Over

Game 379-380: Ball State at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 84.350; Toledo 78.664
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 6; 70
Vegas Line: Ball State by 7 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+7 1/2); Over

Game 381-382: Akron at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 80.178; Kent State 71.141
Dunkel Line: Akron by 9; 55
Vegas Line: Akron by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-3 1/2); Over

Game 383-384: UTEP at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 78.825; Southern Mississippi 81.776
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 66
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 7 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+7 1/2); Over

Game 385-386: Oklahoma at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 114.829; Baylor 83.473
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 31; 69
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 26 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-26 1/2); Over

Game 387-388: Texas A&M at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 79.967; Oklahoma State 107.069
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 27; 57
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 24 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-24 1/2); Under

Game 389-390: Ohio State at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 102.745; Wisconsin 98.605
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 391-392: Rice at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 81.688; Tulsa 101.438
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 20; 86
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 15; 80 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-15); Over

Game 393-394: Oregon at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 104.033; USC 119.615
Dunkel Line: USC by 15 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: USC by 16 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+16 1/2); Under

Game 395-396: Wyoming at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 74.715; New Mexico 85.865
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 11; 39
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 12; 43
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+12); Under

Game 397-398: Hawaii at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 75.231; Fresno State 100.762
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 25 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 22; 54
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-22); Over

Game 399-400: Western Kentucky at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 72.098; Virginia Tech 99.485
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 27; 38
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 28; 42
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+28); Under

Game 401-402: UL-Lafayette at UL-Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 75.864; UL-Monroe 72.756
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 3; 47
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 2 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-2 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Florida International at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 62.624; North Texas 59.622
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Florida International by 6 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+6 1/2); Under

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[pm530]

College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Friday, October 3

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Tips and Trends
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Cincinnati at Marshall [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Cincinnati (-3.5, O/U 47.5): The Bearcats are down to their third-string quarterback after losing starter Dustin Grutza and backup Tony Pike to injuries. Redshirt freshmen Chazz Anderson and Zach Collaros each took snaps in practice this week and both will likely play tonight. There will be considerable pressure on the offensive line to protect whoever is under center and now would be a good time for an inconsistent running game to get on track. The Bearcats pass rush has been non-existent this season which is contributing to Cincy giving up 258 yards per game through the air.

Cincy is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 vs. C-USA teams.
Cincy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 Friday games.

Key Injuries - QB Dustin Grutza (leg) is OUT.
QB Tony Pike (arm) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)

Marshall: Following an upset on the road at Southern Miss, Marshall laid an egg last week against West Virginia. The Thundering Herd has been miserable on offense this year. They rank 11th in Conference USA in passing (194.2 yards per game) and scoring (20.6 points per game) and 10th in total offense (338.8). Marshall has scored just eight touchdowns on 17 trips inside the red zone. Unfortunately for Marshall, they aren’t any better on the other side of the ball. They rank 108th nationally in total defense (440.0) and 112th in pass defense (281.6). The Herd have recorded just six sacks and forced only six turnovers (three fumble recoveries, three interceptions) in five games.

Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
Marshall is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games in October.

Key Injuries - K Craig Ratanomorn (hip) is probable.
CB Zearrick Matthews (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

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College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Saturday, October 4

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Tips and Trends
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Florida State at Miami (FL) [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

Florida State: After a tough loss at home to Wake Forest, Florida State easily disposed of Colorado 39-21 last Saturday. Quarterback Christian Ponder had a poor first half but played better in the second half against Colorado. However, there are still major question marks surrounding Ponder as he makes his first road start this week. Running back Antone Smith exploded for 159 yards and will once again be looked upon to help carry the offense. The Seminoles defense has been tough this season, allowing just 223 yards per game.

FSU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games.
FSU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - CB Tony Carter (groin) is questionable.
LB Toddrick Verdell (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Miami (-2.5, O/U 43): The young 'Canes are coming off a tough 28-24 loss to North Carolina in a game they led by 10 in the fourth quarter. They shouldn't have a hard time shaking off the defeat seeing that the hated Seminoles are on deck. Running back Graig Copper has been spectacular in his last two games, topping 100 yards each time. Redshirt freshman Robert Marve has had some growing pains this year but he's also displayed the kind of physical tools that could make him Miami's next great quarterback. However, true freshman Jacory Harris will also get some snaps against the Seminoles. Harris is a better runner than Marve and brings a different dimension to Miami's offense.

Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games.
Miami is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Javarris James (ankle) is doubtful.
OL Reggie Youngblood (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side Play of the Day)



#14 Ohio State at #18 Wisconsin [ABC | 8 PM ET]

Ohio State (-2, O/U 44): The Terrelle Pryor era has begun in Columbus and the offense is becoming more and more run oriented with the freshman under center. Last week, the return of Beanie Wells and the feet of Pryor directed Ohio State to a 34-21 victory over Minnesota. The duo rushed for a combined 203 of the Buckeyes 414 yards of offense. Meanwhile, the passing game continues to struggle, ranking 104th in the nation. Currently, the Buckeyes average just 157 yards per game through the air. Ohio State's rush defense isn't nearly as strong as it has been in recent years, allowing close to 100 yards per game.

OSU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games in October.
OSU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games.

Key Injuries - RB Maurice Wells (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Wisconsin: The Badgers need to rebound from a miserable loss at Michigan in a game they led 19-0 at halftime. The Badgers offense was a comedy of errors in the Big House, dropping six passes, committing four turnovers, giving up four sacks and going six-for-19 on third-down conversions. Wisconsin will need a much better performance this week if they plan on upsetting Ohio State. Quarterback Allan Evridge struggled badly against Michigan, throwing two interceptions and losing two fumbles. Evridge will face a much tougher defense this week. Speaking of defense, the Badgers are giving up 108 yards per game on the ground. Not a good sign with Pryor and Wells coming to Madison.

Wisconsin is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 conference games.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - TE Garrett Graham (ankle) is questionable.
WR Maurice Moore (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17



#4 Missouri at Nebraska [ESPN | 9 PM ET]

Missouri (-10.5, O/U 70.5): The Tigers had a week off to prepare for their trip to Lincoln, where they haven't won since 1978. If Missouri is going to beat Nebraska on its home turf, this is the year. Quarterback Chase Daniel is as hot as anyone in the country right now and this Missouri offense has shown it can pile up points on any defense. The emergence of RB Derrick Washington has made an already dangerous offense even more potent. If Missouri is going to win this game, a defense that is allowing 378 yards a contest will need to step up and play well against a Cornhuskers team that can score some points.

Missouri is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 road games.
The OVER is 6-1 in Missouri's last 7 road games.

Key Injuries - S William Moore (foot) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 45

Nebraska: Nebraska was using last week's game against Virginia Tech as a test to see how far the program has come under Bo Pelini. They failed that test, getting upset at home by the Hokies. The Huskers defense allowed a Virginia Tech offense that ranked 112th nationally to rack up 377 yards. That's a major concern with Daniel and Co. coming to town. For the third time in four games, Nebraska couldn't establish anything on the ground. The Huskers ran for only 55 yards on 25 carries. The offense is averaging 421 yards per game and that's key because Nebraska will most likely need to win in a shootout here.

Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games in October.
Nebraska is 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - FB Thomas Lawson (appendix) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 35

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Friday's Games

Cincinnati lost two QBs to broken bones in last few weeks, so now a pair of freshmen get chance to run offense; Bearcats crushed Marshall 40-14 LY (-20). Big East teams are 5-16 vs spread out of conference, 3-13 as favorites, 1-6 on road. Marshall has been outscored 74-24 in second half of their last four games.

BYU outscored its last two foes 103-0; they covered four of last five as regular season favorite- they beat Utah State 38-0 in last meeting, two years ago. Average total in last nine series meetings is 67. Aggies are 1-3, losing 66-24 at Oregon, 58-10 at home to Utah. MWC road favorites are 3-1 vs spread; WAC home underdogs are 1-5.


Saturday's Games

Top 13 games

UConn lost its QB (foot) last week; North Carolina's #3 QB saved the day for Tar Heels in Miami last week, rallying UNC to 28-24 win. Heels have Notre Dame visiting Kenan Stadium next week, not sure if they'll look past 5-0 Huskies, who run ball for 264 yards a game over last four weeks. ACC home favorites are 5-2 against the spread.

Ole Miss upset Florida as 23-point road dogs last week; they've run ball for 537 yards in last three games and defense has held opponents to 4 for last 24 on third down. South Carolina is -7 in turnovers, has been outscored 42-26 in second half of last four games. Ole Miss won last two series games by FG, but both teams switched coaches since.

Hard to tell much about Texas Tech, who had solid win at Nevada, but also has win over horrid SMU and two I-AA teams. Kansas State had safety tossed off team until his legal issues are resolved, which is bad news with high-powered, pass-happy Red Raiders visiting. Tech won last two series meetings, 59-20/35-25; last meeting was in 2005.

Duke is 3-1 and thinking bowl; Georgia Tech is 3-1 and running ball down people's throats, gaining 716 yards on ground in last two games. Tech won last four series meetings, winning last two here, 24-7/49-21, but again, two new coaches here. Cutcliffe has done wonders with 3-1 Duke, which outgained Northwestern by 144 yards in game they lost.

ESPN Gameday is at Vanderbilt, as Commodores are 4-0, and looking to go to first bowl since '82; they've already upset South Carolina and Ole Miss, win here keeps them in first place in SEC East. Aubutn won last 13 series games, with last loss in 1955, but Tigers scored just three offensive TDs in last three games overall. Vandy on throws 14 passes a game- they've run ball for average of 202 yards a game.

Illinois lost last three games vs Michigan, 30-19/56-14/27-17; they've given up 90 points in losses to Missouri, Penn State, two unbeatens, but a bigger red flag might be 20-17 win vs UL-Lafayette. Wolverines rallied back from 19-0 halftime deficit to beat Badgers last week, but Michigan has 11 turnovers in last two games, allowed 25+ points in three of their four games.

Missouri hasn't won at Nebraska since I had full head of hair ('78), but Tigers scored 163 points in three games vs I-A opponents, winning by 10-52-21 points. Home team won last five series games; Mizzou has covered 14 of last 18 games overall. Huskers lost 35-30 at home last week to Virginia Tech; they've scored 30+ points in every '08 game.

Texas won last three games vs Colorado, 42-17/31-7/70-3; Longhorns have Red River Rivalry game vs Oklahoma on deck, Buffs are coming off getting whupped 39-21 at Florida State- they covered just three of last nine tries as underdog. Texas won, covered all four '08 games, with wins by 48-29-42-42 points. Keep in mind Colorado trailed Eastern Washington of I-AA 21-7 at the half on Sept 6-- not very good.

Florida State-Miami used to be THE game; not anymore; Hurricanes blew 14-0 lead last week, got beat by UNC's #3 QB. Florida State lost seven of last nine vs 'canes, but Miami failed to cover last five league games at home. Seminoles have 24 penalties for 249 yards in last two games, you can't win that way. Average total in last two series games at Miami is mere 24.5.

Navy shocked Wake Forest as 16-point dog last week; they've beaten Air Force five times in row, best string of success in this series, which is inten=7 in turnovers vs I-A foes. se rivalry. Falcons had last week off after tough loss to Utah; they're Navy allowed 35-41 points in its losses, 21 or less in its wins. Air Force averages 25.7 ppg.

Wisconsin had dream season ruined last week in Ann Arbor, blowing 19-0 halftime lead in 27-25 loss; they allowed 10 sacks in 38-17 loss in Columbus LY, as Buckeyes outrushed them, 211-12. Ohio State hasn't covered spread yet in '08, losing only road game 35-3 at USC. Badgers covered six of last seven as home dog. Buckeyes are 11-3 as road fave.

Tulsa coach Graham left Rice for Tulsa in same week he signed to stay with Rice (he was only there a year), so a certain amount of tension in this series; average total in last five series games is 70.4. Teams passed for combined 982 yards in LY's 48-43 Tulsa win. Owls have scored four defensive TDs already this year, are terrific +9 in turnovers.

Oregon keeps scoring big numbers despite using #4-5 QBs; they've run ball for 321.8 yds/game over last four games, scored 32 ppg. USC lost 24-17 to Ducks in Eugene LY, are coming off Sept 25 loss in Corvallis Trojans covered just three of last 14 when laying 10+ points, but have covered 11 of 14 coming off loss. Favorite is 6-1 vs spread in series.

Knowledge for rest of the card

-- Boston College covered one of last seven as road favorite; they face former coach O'Brien here. NC State is banged up, but BC's QBs are getting booed at home. Home teams are 1-7 vs spread in ACC games.
-- West Virginia won its last 13 games vs Rutgers, pounding Knights 31-3 LY in Jersey; Rutgers is 0-3 vs D-I teams this year, losing by 17- 32-2 points, allowing 212 rushing yards/game.
-- Penn State beat Purdue last three years, 33-15/12-0/26-19: Nittany Lions won 55-13 at Syracuse in only '08 road game. Purdue allowed an average of 31.7 ppg in its three games vs D-I foes; this could be ugly.
-- Michigan State has run ball for average of 242 yards/game in its last four games; home team won their last eight games vs Iowa. Hawkeyes lost last visit here, 20-10. State is 5-10 in last 15 as Big 11 home fave.
-- Home side won four of last five Indiana-Minnesota games; IU lost last two visits here, 55-7/63-26. Gophers covered just one of last five as a favorite. Hoosiers allowed 84 points in last two games; this is the first road game for Indiana.

-- Virginia is awful, losing 31-3 last week to Duke team that had lost its last 25 ACC games. Maryland scored 35.3 ppg in winning its last three games, including last week's impressive upset at Clemson. Last two Maryland-Virginia games were decided by total of three points.
--Kansas won last three games vs Iowa State, 24-21/41-10/45-7; they have wins this year by 35-29 points vs D-I foes. Iowa State covered five of last seven as underdog, allowed 194.7 rushing yards per game vs D-I opponents. Cyclones' last game was tough OT loss at UNLV.
-- Colorado State won last five games vs UNLV, taking last two here, 45-10/28-7, but Rams were outscored 60-17 this season in the second half of games vs D-I foes. UNLV covered three of last four as a dog.
-- Ohio U is 0-4 vs D-I teams this year, but covered spread in all four games; Bobcats covered last five tries as underdog, lost nine of last 11 visits to Kalamazoo. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in MAC games.
-- Notre Dame is 3-0 at home this season, winning by 8-18-17 points; they won last five games vs Stanford, winning 23-15/31-10 in South Bend. Underdog is 6-3 vs spread in last nine games of this series.

-- Tulane is playing this game outdoors, not in Superdome; Wave has improved, is 2-2, scoring 58 points in last two games, losing just 20-7 to Alabama. Army lost last two visits to Big Easy, 45-31/42-28.
-- Miami OH is 0-3 vs D-I teams, was trailing I-AA Charleston So. at the half; they scored just 13 ppg vs D-I teams. Temple lost a pair of tugh games, then lost its QB and scored three points in losing its last two games, 45-3/7-3.
-- Home team won last three Arizona State-Cal games, as Sun Devils lost last two visits here, 27-0/49-21. First road game for ASU squad that is 10 for last 43 on third down. Cal has four special teams TDs this season. ASU lost last two games, allowing 25 ppg.
-- Arkansas lost last two games, 52-10/49-14, now Florida visits after getting upset at home by Ole Miss last week. Gators won last three in series, 45-30/33-28/38-28- they lost three fumbles last week, after not having a turnover this season prior to that.
-- Kentucky is unbeaten, but facing red-hot Alabama squad that won its games by 24-24-34-35-11 points- they led 31-0 at half at Georgia last week. Wildcats outscored foes 58-13 in first half of games; they lost last two meetings vs Alabama, 45-17/27-17.

-- Central Florida is double digit favorite even though they got waxed 58-13 in El Paso last week, their third loss in row; Knights won 49-20 at SMU LY (-12), but are 0-3 vs D-I teams in 2008, allowing 41 ppg. Mustangs are 0-4 vs D-I teams, outscored 73-7 in the first half of last three games.
-- Eastern Michigan is terrible, 0-4 vs D-I teams, losing by 32-24-27- 37 points; they've lost last nine games vs Bowling Green by average of 15 points, losing last two visits here, 41-20/24-21. Falcons allowed an average of 172 rushing yards/game over last three weeks.
-- Idaho is also awful, losing all four games vs D-I teams by 70-23-25- 28 points; they allowed average of 229.7 rushing yards over last three games. Nevada won its last three games vs Vandals, 62-14/45-7/37-21. Idaho lost last seven WAC home games by average of 18 points.
-- TCU won last two games vs San Diego State, 52-0/45-33; they were down 17-0 to Aztecs LY, but rallied to win. Horned Frogs got waxed in Norman last week, but are still 4-1, with D-I wins by 23-17-41 pts. Aztecs lost their two road games this year, 21-13/35-10.
-- Washington State lost its two Pac-10 games, 66-3/63-14, giving up a ridiculous 737 rushing yards. UCLA lost its last three games by 59-21-5 points-- hard to lay 17 points with team like that, but the Coogs are already -13 in turnovers.

-- Washington lost its QB (thumb) and is 0-4 this season, allowing an average of 40.5 ppg. Road team won four of last five games in series, with Huskies winning last two visits here, 38-14/21-10. Arizona has three decisive wins, but loss at New Mexico (-10) is troubling.
-- Tennessee is 1-3 and taking on water; they're going with two QBs here, as they try to catch on to Clawson's offense; Vols scored total of 18 points in last two games, and with Georgia on deck, they need to improve quickly. MAC road dogs are 13-10 against the spread.
-- Ball State is 5-0, scoring 39.8 ppg in its four games vs D-I foes; they won their two road games, 41-24 at Akron, 42-20 at Indiana. Toledo is 1-3, with losses by 25-1-19 points, giving up 42.7 ppg- the home loss to Florida International last week was hideous.
-- Kent State lost all four games vs D-I foes, by 21-20-17-21 pts; they are -8 in turnovers already. Home team won three of last four Akron-Kent games, with Zips losing last visit here, 37-15. MAC home teams are 2-6 vs spread in conference games.

-- UTEP snapped 11-month losing skid last week by crushing Central Florida, in game with the UCF QB making first college start; Miners lost at home to Southern Miss LY, 56-30. Miners are 6-2 as road dog in conference games since Price has been UTEP's coach.
-- Oklahoma has Texas on deck, faces Baylor team that is 2-2, losing 31-28 at UConn (+13), 41-13 vs Wake (+11); Sooners won last five in series, taking last two visits to Waco, 35-0/36-10. Bears are just 3-8 vs spread in their last eleven games as the underdog.
-- Texas A&M was lucky to survive Army last week; they're 2-2, with losses 18-14 at home to Arkansas State, 41-23 vs Miami. Oklahoma State is 4-0, scoring 50 ppg vs D-I foes, but they lost last four games vs Aggies, losing the last two by a single point each.
-- Road team won four of last five Wyoming-New Mexico games, with Cowboys winning last visit here 14-10, but Wyoming lost its last three games vs D-I foes, by 20-44-29 points. New Mexico scored 36-35 in its win, but lost all three games when they scored less than 35 points.

-- Fresno State has to be little tired, playing at Rutgers, Toledo, UCLA sandwiched around tough home loss to Wisconsin. Hawai'i lost its two mainland games, 56-10 at Florida (+37), 45-7 at Oregon State (+12.5); they've been outscored 65-10 in second half of their D-I games.
-- Western Kentucky is in first year of D-I ball, losing 31-13 (Indiana), 41-7 (Alabama), 41-3 (Kentcuky). Virginia Tech is off solid road wins at North Carolina, Nebraska; their last three wins are by total of eleven points. ACC non-conference favorites are 8-5 vs spread.
-- UL-Monroe won four of last five games vs UL-Lafayette, as Cajuns lost four of five, splitting last two visits here. ULL is 1-3, losing 20-17 at Illinois, 45-37 at K-State; they've run ball for 749 yards in their last two games. ULM lost all three of its games vs Division I opponents.
-- Florida International won 35-16 at Toledo last week, they're 2-14 in last 16 games, with the other win in LY's season finale vs North Texas. Mean Green is horrible, losing by 39-30-38-57 points. When you lose 77-20 to Rice, its not a good thing.