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Lookin to ride my 3-0 week 3 through this week. May also have plays on KC, St. Lou, and/or tenn. Will post if I do. GL to all! Also like under in minn/tenn and pit/bal games but I dont bet totals so gonna stay away.
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* San Francisco +5.5 over New Orleans (May upgrade to 3*)
I won last week with the Niners and I'm going continue to ride them while they still have line value. The public loves to bet high powered offenses and for the last 1 ½ years the Saints have been a favorite for public bettors. The problem is, the Saint's defense is pathetic! They are allowing 5.3 YPR (29th) and 258 YPG in the air (also 29th). Brees has been playing very well averaging 8.7 YPPA (5th), but they will face a stingy Niners pass D that is allowing only 5.5 YPPA (5th). With the loss of Shockey (WR's Patten and Colston also out) I think Brees takes a step back. Shockey already has 16 receptions on the year averaging 10 yards/catch. On the ground N.O. is bad averaging only 3.4 YPR (28th). New Orleans is a soft team with zero defense, and you cannot win in the NFL with that combination.
The Niners a very underrated this year. Their offense is well balanced averaging 4.7 YPR (11th). Gore looks like his old self and is 5th in the league in rushing yards. O'Sullivan is playing lights out in Martz's offense and averaging 9.4 YPPA (3rd), completing 66% of his passes and has a 105 passer rating (4th in the NFL)! This can only get better playing against one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Niners' rush D is average allowing 4.3 YPR (19th), but as mentioned above the Saint's do not have a good rushing game. In short, San Fran is a better team than the Saints and I think they win this game outright. I am also taking 0.1 units on San Fran money line at +200 (to win 0.2 units). This game will keep its * value even if line goes down to 4.
2* Atlanta +7 over Carolina
Atlanta is underrated this year and I'm taking them here as a TD underdog against an average (at best) Panther team. The reason for this inflated line is simply this….they are the Atlanta Falcons. Lines are based on public perception, not on the quality of the teams. And, the public perceives the Falcons to stink, but they are wrong. Atlanta looks like a pretty good team this year (I was surprised myself when I crunched the numbers). The only reason I am making them only a 2* is because the competition they played so far has been bad (K.C., Detroit, and an average Tampa team). Atlanta is dominating on the ground averaging an amazing 5.8 YPR (1st in NFL) and 203 YPR (also 1st). I love taking big dogs when they can run the ball; this allows them to control the clock keeping the Panthers off the field an unable to cover the number. In two of his games Matt Ryan has been doing what is expected of him, don't force anything and don't make turnovers (had 2 INT's in T.B. game). If he continues this trend Atlanta will control this game against a Panther rush D that is merely average, allowing 3.9 YPR (13th). Defensively, Atlanta's rushing D is struggling allowing 5 YPR (26th), but the Panthers are only averaging 3.8 YPR (22nd in NFL) so I don't see this as a problem. The Falcons pass D looks very good allowing only 5.5 YPPA (4th in NFL). They will face Delhomme who has been struggling this year completing only 57% of his passes (25th in NFL) and throwing only 1 TD (and 1 INT). He is 23rd in the league averaging 6.2 YPPA. Through the years the Panther's D has been their strength, but their rush D is average as mentioned above and their pass D is merely average too allowing 6.6 YPR (13th in NFL). Take the underrated Dirtly Birds in this one, they'll control the clock and cover the spread. If line goes to 6.5 I would downgrade to 1* play (I would recommend buying the ½ point to bring line to 7).
2* Washington +11 over Dallas
For similar reasons as betting San Fran I am taking the Skins. The Skins are underrated and the number here is inflated because Dallas has an explosive offense that the public loves betting. Don't get me wrong I have Dallas as the #1 team in my rankings, but they are coming off two huge primetime games versus the Eagles and the Pack…I smell letdown. Dallas' offense is the best in the league averaging 5 YPR (5th) and 8.4 YPPA (6th). But, defensively they are only average. They allow 4.1 YPR (15th) and 6.9 YPPA (15th).
I fired on the Skins with a 4* play last week against Zona and they came through for me…let's do it again! On the ground Wash is averaging 4.3 YPR (14th). Campbell seems to be coming into his own and has a better understanding of Zorn's west coast offense. Campell has 4 TD's, 0 INT's, and is completing 66% of his passes for a passer rating of 100! Defensively, the Skins aren't too strong against the run allowing 4.4 YRP, but only allowing 6.5 YPPA (10th) against the pass. Unfortunately, they will be without LB Jason Taylor, but this isn't going to make me shy away from betting the Skins. This number is way too high and the Skins aren't getting any respect in the NFC east and are looking to make a statement! This game will remain a 2* if line is 10 or higher.
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* San Francisco +5.5 over New Orleans (May upgrade to 3*)
I won last week with the Niners and I'm going continue to ride them while they still have line value. The public loves to bet high powered offenses and for the last 1 ½ years the Saints have been a favorite for public bettors. The problem is, the Saint's defense is pathetic! They are allowing 5.3 YPR (29th) and 258 YPG in the air (also 29th). Brees has been playing very well averaging 8.7 YPPA (5th), but they will face a stingy Niners pass D that is allowing only 5.5 YPPA (5th). With the loss of Shockey (WR's Patten and Colston also out) I think Brees takes a step back. Shockey already has 16 receptions on the year averaging 10 yards/catch. On the ground N.O. is bad averaging only 3.4 YPR (28th). New Orleans is a soft team with zero defense, and you cannot win in the NFL with that combination.
The Niners a very underrated this year. Their offense is well balanced averaging 4.7 YPR (11th). Gore looks like his old self and is 5th in the league in rushing yards. O'Sullivan is playing lights out in Martz's offense and averaging 9.4 YPPA (3rd), completing 66% of his passes and has a 105 passer rating (4th in the NFL)! This can only get better playing against one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Niners' rush D is average allowing 4.3 YPR (19th), but as mentioned above the Saint's do not have a good rushing game. In short, San Fran is a better team than the Saints and I think they win this game outright. I am also taking 0.1 units on San Fran money line at +200 (to win 0.2 units). This game will keep its * value even if line goes down to 4.
2* Atlanta +7 over Carolina
Atlanta is underrated this year and I'm taking them here as a TD underdog against an average (at best) Panther team. The reason for this inflated line is simply this….they are the Atlanta Falcons. Lines are based on public perception, not on the quality of the teams. And, the public perceives the Falcons to stink, but they are wrong. Atlanta looks like a pretty good team this year (I was surprised myself when I crunched the numbers). The only reason I am making them only a 2* is because the competition they played so far has been bad (K.C., Detroit, and an average Tampa team). Atlanta is dominating on the ground averaging an amazing 5.8 YPR (1st in NFL) and 203 YPR (also 1st). I love taking big dogs when they can run the ball; this allows them to control the clock keeping the Panthers off the field an unable to cover the number. In two of his games Matt Ryan has been doing what is expected of him, don't force anything and don't make turnovers (had 2 INT's in T.B. game). If he continues this trend Atlanta will control this game against a Panther rush D that is merely average, allowing 3.9 YPR (13th). Defensively, Atlanta's rushing D is struggling allowing 5 YPR (26th), but the Panthers are only averaging 3.8 YPR (22nd in NFL) so I don't see this as a problem. The Falcons pass D looks very good allowing only 5.5 YPPA (4th in NFL). They will face Delhomme who has been struggling this year completing only 57% of his passes (25th in NFL) and throwing only 1 TD (and 1 INT). He is 23rd in the league averaging 6.2 YPPA. Through the years the Panther's D has been their strength, but their rush D is average as mentioned above and their pass D is merely average too allowing 6.6 YPR (13th in NFL). Take the underrated Dirtly Birds in this one, they'll control the clock and cover the spread. If line goes to 6.5 I would downgrade to 1* play (I would recommend buying the ½ point to bring line to 7).
2* Washington +11 over Dallas
For similar reasons as betting San Fran I am taking the Skins. The Skins are underrated and the number here is inflated because Dallas has an explosive offense that the public loves betting. Don't get me wrong I have Dallas as the #1 team in my rankings, but they are coming off two huge primetime games versus the Eagles and the Pack…I smell letdown. Dallas' offense is the best in the league averaging 5 YPR (5th) and 8.4 YPPA (6th). But, defensively they are only average. They allow 4.1 YPR (15th) and 6.9 YPPA (15th).
I fired on the Skins with a 4* play last week against Zona and they came through for me…let's do it again! On the ground Wash is averaging 4.3 YPR (14th). Campbell seems to be coming into his own and has a better understanding of Zorn's west coast offense. Campell has 4 TD's, 0 INT's, and is completing 66% of his passes for a passer rating of 100! Defensively, the Skins aren't too strong against the run allowing 4.4 YRP, but only allowing 6.5 YPPA (10th) against the pass. Unfortunately, they will be without LB Jason Taylor, but this isn't going to make me shy away from betting the Skins. This number is way too high and the Skins aren't getting any respect in the NFC east and are looking to make a statement! This game will remain a 2* if line is 10 or higher.
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