Tweet
what's up guys. First wagers of the year...good luck to all! I may have plays on Jacksonville, St. Louis, and/or Miami. post tomorrow if i do.
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
4* Washington -3 (-120) over Arizona
Let's not overreact with Arizona's 2-0 start. They played San Francisco (who appears to be underrated this year) and Miami. The reason they beat the Niners was because they were +5 on turnovers (and they only won by 10)! San Fran actually out gained Cards. This week they have to travel across the country for an early game and face a tough Redskins team. It's tough to put a lot of weight on stats this early in the season since teams have only played two games but I will analyze them anyway. Arizona's running game is terrible averaging only 2.7 YPR (yards per rush), good enough to be second to last in the league. In the air Warner is having a good year averaging 270 YPG (yards per game) passing (5th in NFL). Defensively, they are below average. They allow 4.1 YPR (yards per rush) (17th in NFL) and 7.2 YPPA (yards per pass attempt) (20th in NFL) and this takes into account the game where they shut down the lowly Dolphins. I think that the Skins' strong running game will exploit this mediocre defense.
The Skins had a rough season opener against the Giants but bounced back big time against the Saints last week for a 29-24 victory. They played very good last week with 455 total yards and Campbell looked solid throwing for 321 with no picks. I think that as the season goes on Washington is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. Let's take a look at the stats. On the offensive side of the ball they average 4.2 YPR (16th in NFL) and 7.2 YPPA (14th in NFL). But, half of these stats are from the Giants game where they were woeful gaining only 210 total yards. I think they will look more like they did week 2 against the Cards. Defensively, they allow 4.4 YPR (18th), and will not have any trouble stopping the Cards terrible rushing attack. To beat the Cards you have to stop Warner and their passing attack (their only strength) and the Skins will do that! They held Brees to 210 yards last week and picked him off twice and are allowing 6.4 YPPA on the season. Traveling for the west coast isn't easy in the NFL and the Skins will hand the Cards their first loss in this game…BIG 4* PLAY!
2* Cincinnati +13 over N.Y. Giants
A good rule of thumb in the NFL is this…teams are never as bad or as good as the media and public think they are. A great example is this game. The Bengals aren't as bad as they have appear and the Giants aren't as good as they have appeared. Usually after a Super Bowl victory teams have a let down after the first week. The Giants didn't let down at all last week against the Rams, but I expect them to on Sunday. Statistically, the Giants look pretty solid but they have played the bad Rams and the Skins in week 1 who looked bad at that time. They are averaging 5.4 YPR (4th in NFL) and 7.4 YPPA (13th in NFL). Defensively, they allow 3.8 YPR (13th) and 5.3 YPPA (5th). Statistically they look pretty good so far, but I think the oddsmaker have them overrated and they are in a let down position.
The Bengals have looked woeful losing to the Ravens and the Titans, but I think they are going to step up and cover the big spread here. Palmer has not looked himself averaging only 4.5 YPPA, but last week in Cinci there were gusting winds that affected his throws, so this stat is skewed somewhat. On the ground the Bengals are averaging only 3 YPR (28th in NFL). Defensively, they are allowing 4.7 YPR (23rd), but against the pass they look very good allowing only 5.1 YPPA (2nd in NFL). I think that their defense will look about the same as it has, but I expect their offense to rebound big time, especially Palmer. The Giants are better statictically, but like I said above you have to take stats with a grain of salt since it is so early in the season. I think people are giving the Giants too much respect and the Bengals will cover this big line.
2* San Francisco -4.5 over Detroit
San Francisco is very underrated and you have to bet them early in the year while there is line value (I think if this game were in week 12 the Niners would be -9 or higher). Detroit looks as bad as they had in years past losing to the Pack and the horrendous Falcons. They really do not have a strength and even their passing game appears average gaining only 7 YPPA (15th in the NFL). On the ground they are gaining only 3.4 YPR (24th in the NFL). Defensively, they appear to be one of the worst teams in the league so far. They are allowing 6.1 YPR (last in the league) and 9.6 YPPA (29th in the NFL)! They are last in the league allowing 41 PPG and 410 total YPG (29th in the league).
The Niners have lost to the Cards, mainly because of a -5 turnover ratio, and won in OT last week to the Seahawks. So far statistically they look like one of the best teams in the NFC and very well rounded. They are averaging 4.7 YPR (8th in NFL) and O'Sullivan has looked solid at 9.9 YPPA (3rd in NFL) and throwing only 1 interception. If he can control the ball and not throw picks in this game I see the Niners winning easily. Defensively they have also looked good allowing only 3.8 YPR (13th in NFL) and 5.9 YPPA (9th in NFL). Also, Mike Martz and O'Sullivan are both looking for revenge because the Lions sent them packing last year! I like the 49ers minus the points for a 2* play.
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
4* Washington -3 (-120) over Arizona
Let's not overreact with Arizona's 2-0 start. They played San Francisco (who appears to be underrated this year) and Miami. The reason they beat the Niners was because they were +5 on turnovers (and they only won by 10)! San Fran actually out gained Cards. This week they have to travel across the country for an early game and face a tough Redskins team. It's tough to put a lot of weight on stats this early in the season since teams have only played two games but I will analyze them anyway. Arizona's running game is terrible averaging only 2.7 YPR (yards per rush), good enough to be second to last in the league. In the air Warner is having a good year averaging 270 YPG (yards per game) passing (5th in NFL). Defensively, they are below average. They allow 4.1 YPR (yards per rush) (17th in NFL) and 7.2 YPPA (yards per pass attempt) (20th in NFL) and this takes into account the game where they shut down the lowly Dolphins. I think that the Skins' strong running game will exploit this mediocre defense.
The Skins had a rough season opener against the Giants but bounced back big time against the Saints last week for a 29-24 victory. They played very good last week with 455 total yards and Campbell looked solid throwing for 321 with no picks. I think that as the season goes on Washington is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. Let's take a look at the stats. On the offensive side of the ball they average 4.2 YPR (16th in NFL) and 7.2 YPPA (14th in NFL). But, half of these stats are from the Giants game where they were woeful gaining only 210 total yards. I think they will look more like they did week 2 against the Cards. Defensively, they allow 4.4 YPR (18th), and will not have any trouble stopping the Cards terrible rushing attack. To beat the Cards you have to stop Warner and their passing attack (their only strength) and the Skins will do that! They held Brees to 210 yards last week and picked him off twice and are allowing 6.4 YPPA on the season. Traveling for the west coast isn't easy in the NFL and the Skins will hand the Cards their first loss in this game…BIG 4* PLAY!
2* Cincinnati +13 over N.Y. Giants
A good rule of thumb in the NFL is this…teams are never as bad or as good as the media and public think they are. A great example is this game. The Bengals aren't as bad as they have appear and the Giants aren't as good as they have appeared. Usually after a Super Bowl victory teams have a let down after the first week. The Giants didn't let down at all last week against the Rams, but I expect them to on Sunday. Statistically, the Giants look pretty solid but they have played the bad Rams and the Skins in week 1 who looked bad at that time. They are averaging 5.4 YPR (4th in NFL) and 7.4 YPPA (13th in NFL). Defensively, they allow 3.8 YPR (13th) and 5.3 YPPA (5th). Statistically they look pretty good so far, but I think the oddsmaker have them overrated and they are in a let down position.
The Bengals have looked woeful losing to the Ravens and the Titans, but I think they are going to step up and cover the big spread here. Palmer has not looked himself averaging only 4.5 YPPA, but last week in Cinci there were gusting winds that affected his throws, so this stat is skewed somewhat. On the ground the Bengals are averaging only 3 YPR (28th in NFL). Defensively, they are allowing 4.7 YPR (23rd), but against the pass they look very good allowing only 5.1 YPPA (2nd in NFL). I think that their defense will look about the same as it has, but I expect their offense to rebound big time, especially Palmer. The Giants are better statictically, but like I said above you have to take stats with a grain of salt since it is so early in the season. I think people are giving the Giants too much respect and the Bengals will cover this big line.
2* San Francisco -4.5 over Detroit
San Francisco is very underrated and you have to bet them early in the year while there is line value (I think if this game were in week 12 the Niners would be -9 or higher). Detroit looks as bad as they had in years past losing to the Pack and the horrendous Falcons. They really do not have a strength and even their passing game appears average gaining only 7 YPPA (15th in the NFL). On the ground they are gaining only 3.4 YPR (24th in the NFL). Defensively, they appear to be one of the worst teams in the league so far. They are allowing 6.1 YPR (last in the league) and 9.6 YPPA (29th in the NFL)! They are last in the league allowing 41 PPG and 410 total YPG (29th in the league).
The Niners have lost to the Cards, mainly because of a -5 turnover ratio, and won in OT last week to the Seahawks. So far statistically they look like one of the best teams in the NFC and very well rounded. They are averaging 4.7 YPR (8th in NFL) and O'Sullivan has looked solid at 9.9 YPPA (3rd in NFL) and throwing only 1 interception. If he can control the ball and not throw picks in this game I see the Niners winning easily. Defensively they have also looked good allowing only 3.8 YPR (13th in NFL) and 5.9 YPPA (9th in NFL). Also, Mike Martz and O'Sullivan are both looking for revenge because the Lions sent them packing last year! I like the 49ers minus the points for a 2* play.
Comment