Monday Trends and Indexes 9/15

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Trends and Indexes
Monday September 15

Good Luck on day #259 of 2008!


NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.
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Daily Sports Roundup

Monday, September 15

The big matchup on Monday will take place in Dallas, where the Eagles and Cowboys will clash in the NFL's primetime contest. Here's a peek in your Daily Sports Roundup.

The Gridiron Spotlight

The Eagles were the only NFC East team to miss the playoffs last season, but they served notice about a resurgence when they slapped the Rams 38-3 in Week 1. Philly, though, will get a much tougher test on Monday night when they battle the Cowboys.

Dallas beat Cleveland 28-10 on the road in Week 1, and even though they flamed out in the playoffs last season they're still the favorites to win the NFC this year. And the oddsmakers like the Cowboys' chances of tagging the Eagles with a loss on Monday night, as they've been listed as 6.5-point home favorites (with the total at 46.5 points).

The Cowboys, though, will be specifically looking to avoid a repeat of last year's matchup with the Eagles in Dallas. Tony Romo and company fell 10-6 to Philadelphia in that game, despite the fact that they were listed as big 10-point home favorites. Overall Dallas and Philadelphia are tied with five ATS wins apiece over their last 10 meetings.

Other Notable Events

If the Red Sox are going to overtake the Rays in the AL East race they're going to have to take advantage of the three-game series that the teams will play starting on Monday night. Boston will send Daisuke Matsuzaka (16-2, 2.97 ERA) to the mound on the road in the series opener on Monday, and he'll face Tampa's Scott Kazmir (11-6, 2.99 ERA).

The Rest of the Schedule

There are four other games on the American League schedule for Monday: Minnesota at Cleveland, the White Sox at the Yankees, Detroit at Texas, and Seattle at Kansas City. Chicago and Minnesota are jockeying for position atop the AL Central standings.

Over in the National League on Monday it's the Dodgers at Pittsburgh, the Mets at Washington, San Diego at Colorado, San Francisco at Arizona, and the Cubs vs. Houston. That Cubs/Astros game will be played in Milwaukee, thanks to Hurricane Ike.

Finally, the Monarchs and the Comets will play a WNBA makeup game in Houston on Monday to close out the league's regular season. The playoffs will begin on Thursday.

News from the Wire

Eagles WR Kevin Curtis (hernia) is listed as OUT for Monday, while WR Reggie Brown (hamstring) is QUESTIONABLE . . . Cowboys WR Sam Hurd (ankle) is OUT for Monday, while RB Marion Barber (rib) is PROBABLE . . . Phil Hughes will finally return to the Yankees' rotation this week, as he's scheduled to face Chicago on Wednesday.

A Peek at the Future

Josh Beckett (12-9, 4.10 ERA) and Andy Sonnanstine (13-7, 4.47 ERA) are scheduled to duel in Game 2 of the BoSox/Rays series on Tuesday night . . . Team Europe is pegged as the -125 Vegas favorite to win the Ryder Cup at Valhalla Golf Club this week, with Team USA the +105 underdog . . . next week's Monday Night Football primetime matchup features San Diego hosting Brett Favre and the New York Jets.

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Six-pack for Monday

-- Phillies swept a doubleheader from Brewers taking all four games in series; they're tied for Wild Card with Milwaukee.

-- By the way, isn't the Wild Card great? Seriously, it makes September hell of a lot more interesting.

-- Phils are also just game behind Mets after New York blew 4-2 ninth inning lead to the Braves, losing 7-4.

-- Big day for White Sox, who swept twinbill from Detroit, as Minnesota was losing in Baltimore. Sox' lead is 1.5 games in AL Central-- I teams finish season against each other .

-- Tampa's prize pitching prospect David Price made his first big league appearance, allowing two runs in 5.1 IP (87 PT) in relief of Edwin Jackson in 8-4 loss in the Bronx.

-- Before season, Patriots were 5-2 to win Super Bowl; before Sunday's game, they were 20-1. Now that Matt Cassel has shown that he is competent, wonder if odds will fall again.

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Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday.......

13) Brutal start to season for Chargers, who lost on last play at home to Carolina last week, then got hosed on two big calls in Denver Sunday, then got beat when Shanahan went for broke on two-point play in last 0:30. Bolts started 1-3 last year; they are better than this. Tomlinson is hurt again, too.

12) Lot of wild games Sunday; how fitting is that the Lions had the biggest comeback in their history, rallying to lead after 21-0 deficit, and still lost by 23 points? What a disaster they are.

11) By the way, how many other NFL teams trailed 21-0 in both their first and second game of season? Not many, I bet.

10) With 11:07 left in second quarter, Packer WR Jennings had 100 yards receiving already. Detroit meets up with an old friend next week, when they visit Mike Martz and the 1-1 49ers.

9) Colts trailed 15-0 in third quarter at Minnesota, but rallied to give Tony Dungy (held passing records at U of Minnesota) an exciting 18-15 win in his homecoming. Indy had 25 yards on 19 carries- they need center Saturday back.

8) Bears led 17-3 at Carolina, but lost 20-17, as gritty Delhomme led another Panther comeback win. Last time Carolina was 2-0, they made it to the Super Bowl.

7) Troy Aikman said Sunday that he thought QB-WR were the two hardest positions for rookie to come in to play right away.

6) Schedule adjustments from the hurricane: Ravens will go to Houston in Week 10, and Baltimore's game with Cincinnati is going to be played in Week 8 instead of Week 10. giving the Bengals their bye two weeks later than originally planned.

5) Cincinnati could use a bye in Week 3; their two-week total in passing yardage: 216 yards, or less than Kurt Warner had on his first nine throws against Miami Sunday.

4) Thats right, the two-time MVP, who has Arizona atop NFC West, was 9-9 for 221 yards and two TDs at one point Sunday.

3) The Tyler Thigpen era got off to shaky start Sunday, as the Chiefs lost 23-8 to an Oakland team rumored to be firing coach Kiffin on Monday. When you're 0-2 and already have played three quarterbacks, its not a good sign.

2) Rams allowed 79 points in 0-2 start, but they can't blame the red zone offense; they haven't run a play inside their foes' 20 in two games, and now have to visit 0-2 Seattle next week, where the loser's season is pretty much going to be over.

Did I mention that on same day two-time MVP Kurt Warner, in his first home start of '08, was 19-24/361 passing, Marc Bulger had another dismal day in St Louis? Cutting Warner will rank as one of the dumbest, least classy moves in recent memory.

1) Patriots' average drive started at their 42. Jets had ball eight times; they got it once on their 23, the other seven times on the 20. New England killed them in the field position battle.

The shanked 31-yard field goal by Jay Feely on Jets' first drive was a killer; it deflated the crowd, and prevented Cassel from ever having to play from behind. Very bad loss for the Jets.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Dunkel Index

NFL

Dunkel Index

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.742; Dallas 141.659
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

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National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL

Long Sheet


Week 2

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Monday, September 15
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PHILADELPHIA (8 - 8) at DALLAS (13 - 4) - 9/15/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 119-84 ATS (+26.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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National Football League – Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 2

Monday, September 15th

Philadelphia at Dallas, 8:30 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog
Dallas: 8-1 Over off ATS win

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National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


2008 Week 2 NFL analysis

Monday, September 15

Eagles (1-0) @ Cowboys (1-0)— Both teams cruised last week, this is early showdown to keep up with Giants in NFC East. Eagles are 12-4 in last 16 series games, winning six of last eight here; they covered eight of last nine road openers that weren’t in Week 1- they’re 7-4 vs. spread as dog in their road opener. Home side lost four of last five series games. Dallas is 6-4 vs spread in last ten home openers- Romo was 24-32/320 passing last week, McNabb was 26-39/414. Both sides figure to get more resistance here. Philadelphia’s last five road openers went under the total.

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National Football League – Added Trends

NFL
Additional Trends

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Trends Sheet
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Monday, September 15

8:30 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Monday, September 15

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Tips and Trends
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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Eagles: The Eagles got off to an impressive start this season by smashing the Rams at home, 38-3. They will make a big step up in class this week when they travel to Big D to battle the Super Bowl favorite Cowboys. Philly has had success against America’s Team recently by putting pressure on the quarterback and being physical with their receivers, something the Browns didn’t do a week ago. The last time these two teams met last December, the Eagles won 10-6. Tony Romo had his worst day as a pro, completing just 13-of-36 passes, tossing three interceptions and getting sacked four times. The Eagles have won 12 of the last 16 meeting in this series, including three of the last four.

Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Eagles are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Dallas.

Key Injuries - WR Kevin Curtis (hernia) is OUT.
DE Victor Abiamiri (wrist) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Cowboys (-7, O/U 46): The Cowboys’ journey to the Super Bowl got off on the right foot as they toyed with the Browns, 28-10, in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. Tony Romo and Co. rolled up close to 500 yards of total offense and recorded 30 first downs to the Browns’ 11. While Romo dissected the Cleveland secondary like a surgeon, the tandem of Marion Barber and rookie Felix Jones combined for 142 yards rushing and three touchdowns. Dallas will need a similar performance out of its running backs this week to offset the Eagles’ blitzing, aggressive defense. Dallas must also contain Eagles RB Brian Westbrook, who has been a Cowboys killer over the years. The last time Dallas faced Westbrook, he ran for 144 yards and set the tone for Philadelphia’s offense.

Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Dallas' last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Marion Barber (ribs) is probable.
CB Terence Newman (groin) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (Side Play of the Day)

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Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, September 15

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Hot Pitchers
-- Colorado is 8-3 in last eleven Jimenez home starts.
-- Arizona won three of last four Davis home starts. Hennessey allowed one run in six innings in his first '08 start.
-- Marquis is 2-1, 1.77 in his last three starts.

-- Lewis tossed eight shutout innings in his first 2008 start, at Baltimore. Slowey is 5-1, 2.47 in his last seven starts.
-- Buehrle is 2-0, 0.68 in his last two starts. Aceves won his first start, allowing one run in seven IP at Anaheim.
-- Red Sox are 9-2 on road when Matsuzaka starts. Rays are 11-1 at home when Kazmir is starting pitcher.

Cold Pitchers
-- Ohlendorf is 0-1, 9.00 in first two big league starts. Dodgers are 4-10 in Kuroda's last fourteen road starts.
-- Martinez is 1-1, 6.95 in his last four starts. Lannan is 2-2, 7.82 in his last five starts.
-- Leblanc is 1-1, 5.40 in his first two big league starts.
-- Moehler is 1-2, 6.32 in his last three road starts.

-- Willis was 0-1, 10.45 in four starts back in April/May, before he hurt his knee. He returns here. McCarthy is 1-1, 4.64 in four starts this season.
-- Davies is 1-5, 6.59 in his last six starts. Silva is 0-3, 11.77 in his last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won last three games, scoring 24 runs. Dodgers won twelve of last fourteen games.
-- Mets won six of their last seven road games.
-- Cubs won last three games, allowing five runs. Astros won 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Giants won nine of their last eleven games.

-- Red Sox are 14-6 in their last twenty games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games, but played two games yesterday at home.
-- Royals won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Washington is 4-15 in its last nineteen games.
-- Rockies lost seven of their last eight games. Padres lost five of their last six games.
-- Arizona lost eight of their last nine games.

-- Indians lost three of their last four games. Minnesota is 4-9 in its last thirteen road games.
-- Bronx is 1-5 in last six home series openers.
-- Rays lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Tigers lost last four games, allowing 23 runs. Texas is 5-12 in its last seventeen home games.
-- Mariners lost their last six road games.

Totals
-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven Pittsburgh games.
-- Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five San Diego games.
-- Last four Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Cubs' last five road games all stayed under the total.

-- Over is 8-2 in Minnesota's last ten road games.
-- Over is 10-4 in White Sox' last fourteen games.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Boston games.
-- Four of last five Detroit road games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Kansas City home games.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


If there are any updates, we will re-post.

Monday, September 15

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Tips and Trends
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees [YES | 7:05 PM ET]

White Sox: Mark Buehrle has won his last two starts in spectacular fashion, allowing just one run in 13.1 innings of work. Overall, Buehrle has won five of his last seven starts. He’s struggled on the road this season, going 3-8 with a 5,34 ERA. Buehrle hasn’t faced the Yankees since last June, when he was lit up for 11 hits and five runs in just six innings. The Over is 5-0 in Buehrle’s last five starts.

White Sox are 0-4 in Buehrle’s last 4 road starts.
White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - 1B Paul Konerko (knee) is OUT.
3B Joe Crede (back) is OUT.
OF Carlos Quentin (wrist) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Yankees (-125, O/U 9.5): Alfredo Aceves made his first start of the year for the Yankees against the Angels and pitched very well, allowing only one run over seven innings. In one start and two relief appearances this season, Aceves has only given up 2 runs in 14 innings, while striking out nine. This will be Aceves’ first appearance against the White Sox in his career.

Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series.
The OVER is 5-1 in New York's last 6 Monday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5



Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays [NESN | 7:10 PM ET]

Red Sox (-115, O/U 8.5): Daisuke Matsuzaka faced the Rays his last time out and didn’t have one of his better performances, allowing eight hits and three runs over five innings. Dice-K also walked four batters in that game. Matsuzaka has been nearly perfect on the road, going 7-0 with a remarkable 2.67 ERA in 11 starts. After winning four consecutive starts, Dice-K has received a no-decision in three of his last four outings.

Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
Red Sox are 4-0 in Matsuzaka's last 4 road starts.

Key Injuries - OF J.D. Drew (.280; back) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Total Play of the Day)

Rays: Scott Kazmir just faced the Red Sox last Tuesday, walking away with a no-decision after giving up just two runs over six innings. Kazmir has been a monster at home this season, going 7-1 with a minuscule 2.10 ERA. In his last three starts, Kazmir has allowed just two runs in 17.1 innings of work, while striking out 17. Despite Kazmir’s dominance at Tropicana Field, his last three home starts have gone way OVER the total.

Rays are 5-1 in Kazmir’s last 6 starts vs. AL East.
The OVER is 4-1 in Kazmir’s last 5 starts vs. AL East.

Key Injuries - OF Carl Crawford (.273; hand) is OUT indefinitely.
OF B.J. Upton (.274; quad) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

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Major League Baseball – Streaking Pitchers

MLB

Monday, September 15

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Streaking Starting Pitchers
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Monday’s streaking and slumping pitchers

Streaking

Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays (11-6, 2.99)

Kazmir is 2-0 and has a 1.04 ERA in his last three starts. He also relinquished two earned runs and registered two shutouts in that period.

Kazmir, who had six wins in his first seven, has just one loss in his last 10 and has surrendered more than three earned runs just once in that span. He also has 17 strikeouts against 11 walks in his last three overall.

The Rays are 49-14 in their last 63 home games and are undefeated in their last seven at home against the Boston Red Sox.


Slumping

Carlos Silva, Seattle Mariners (4-14, 6.53)

Silva has just one triumph in his last 10 and is 0-2 with a lofty 12.21 ERA in his last three starts. He has surrendered 14 earned runs and three HRs in his last seven IP.

Silva is 2-7 on the road with a lofty 6.86 ERA. In his last road start, a setback to the Texas Rangers, he conceded six earned runs on 10 hits in a little over four innings. He has a shaky 4.15 career-ERA against the Kansas City Royals.

The Mariners are 0-5 in their last five road games and are 24-11 in their last 35 overall against the Royals.

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Boston at Tampa Bay
The Rays head home after a rough road trip and look to take advantage of a Boston team that is just 10-14 on the road with the line between -100 and -125. Tampa Bay is the underdog pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105). Here are all of today's games

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.284; Pittsburgh (Ohlender) 15.746
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+175); Under

Game 953-954: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Martinez) 16.845; Washington (Lannan) 14.424
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-180); Over

Game 955-956: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 15.418; Colorado (Jimenez) 13.995
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+170); Over

Game 957-958: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hennessey) 14.528; Arizona (Davis) 15.244
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-170); Under

Game 959-960: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 15.961; Cleveland (Lewis) 13.581
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Under

Game 961-962: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.801; NY Yankees (Aceves) 17.430
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Under

Game 963-964: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.785; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 17.021
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under

Game 965-966: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 13.888; Texas (McCarthy) 16.452
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 12
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Under

Game 967-968: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Silva) 14.988; Kansas City (Davies) 16.567
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Under

Game 969-970: Chicago Cubs vs. Houston (N)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 16.832; Houston (Moehler) 15.733
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Over

[Udog]

MLB


Monday, September 15

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Hot Lines: Monday's best MLB bets
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Detroit at Texas (-140, 12)

Dontrelle Willis is likely pitching for his future with the Detroit Tigers.

The veteran is scheduled to make his first start in three months as the Tigers open a three-game road set with the Texas Rangers on Monday night.

This will be just the fifth start of the season for Willis (0-1, 10.32 ERA), who has endured a nightmare first season in Detroit after coming over as part of a December trade from Florida that included slugger Miguel Cabrera.

The 2003 NL rookie of the year injured his knee during his second start this season, and was placed on the disabled list in mid-April before being activated on May 21. Willis, however, was sent down to the minors in June after struggling during two starts and a relief appearance.

Back in the majors after spending time at Class A Lakeland and Triple-A Toledo working on his control, Willis is back on the mound for the first time since allowing eight runs while walking five in 1 1-3 innings of an 8-2 loss to Cleveland on June 9.

"I'm really excited," Willis told the Tigers' official Web site. "It's been a lot of hard work. I'm just going to go out there, have fun and do what I've been doing."

The left-hander, who won at least 10 games in each of his five seasons with the Marlins, signed a three-year contract with Detroit (70-78) and could be on display for the club to see whether he'll remain in their future plans. Detroit manager Jim Leyland, though, does not want to put any pressure on Willis.

Pick: Rangers



N.Y. Mets at Washington (-170, 9)

The Mets (83-65) have a starting rotation that's third in the NL with a 3.94 ERA, and a lineup that scores more runs per game (4.97) than everyone in the league but the Chicago Cubs. Yet a shaky bullpen has made a meltdown like last season's - when New York blew a seven-game division lead with 17 games to play - look like more and more of a possibility.

The Mets don't have the luxury of such a large lead this season, and their slim edge over Philadelphia could disappear quickly if the relievers keep struggling. The bullpen - missing closer Billy Wagner - endured perhaps its most embarrassing collapse yet on Sunday, when it blew a two-run ninth-inning lead and let Atlanta score five times en route to a 7-4 loss.

"Coming down the stretch at this point, every loss will probably be a reminder of what happened last year," manager Jerry Manuel said. "What we have to do as a team is get through it. We've got to finish."

The blown save was the 27th for the Mets this season, and the 11th in the ninth inning, tying them for third-most in the majors in both categories.

New York also led Washington 2-0 on Saturday in the first game of a doubleheader, but gave up three in the eighth and lost 3-2.

The Mets scored 23 runs last week in a two-game home sweep of the Nationals (56-93), who have baseball's worst record. David Wright went 6-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs in that series, and he hasn't stopped hitting since. The third baseman, who homered three times in the last two games against Atlanta over the weekend, and hitting .632 (12-for-19) in his past five games.

Pick: Over