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Ashton Sports
5 Units on New York Jets U 37 -110
5* SELECTION: BUFF/JETS UNDER (Total of the Year) The Bills had Travis Henry in practice for the week and the back should start today. The ad news is that Eric Moulds is a long-shot to play as the WR didn’t practice all week. Buffalo has played under in 13 of their last 15 games including 4 of 5 this season. They have scored only 42 points the last 3 weeks combined. The Jets have scored only 3 TD in 40+ offensive possessions this season for a grand total of 45 points. Curtis Martin is finally showing his age with no TD scored and less than 200 YR for the season. The Jets are under in 3 of 4 this season.
4 Units on Carolina Panthers +4½ -110
4* SELECTION: CAROLINA The Colts won’t bask in the glory of their comeback win at TB on MNF (Dungy won’t let ‘em) as Indy is 5-0 for the 1st time since Jimmy Carter was in office. There is an outside shot that Edggerin James will play this week but the RB committee employed by the Colts so far has worked out well. The Colts took advantage of a relaxed Bucs team Monday night making up a 21 point deficit with 4 minutes to go. They will be facing a hungry Carolina team that is 4-0 for the 1st time in their young history. The Panthers made the right move as far as RB goes with their acquisition of Stephen Davis who has rushed for 100 yards in all 4 games (565 YR ’03). The Panthers have covered 8 of 11 as a road pup while the Colts are 1-9 ATS playing opponents coming off BB SU wins.
4 Units on Green Bay Packers -1½ -110
4* SELECTION: GB KC went to 5-0 last week against Denver for the 1st time in team history thanks to the miracle run of Dante Hall. Hall has already tied an NFL record for kick returns for TD with 4. He has already saved the Chiefs asses twice this season and this week KC is in between huge division games with the Broncos behind them and Oakland coming up. This is a good shot for the Packers to catch KC in a lull after the Pack disposed of former HC Holmgren last week. Favre has been consistent and didn’t get picked off at all last weekend. KC is allowing more than 150 YR in their road games and that should put a smile on Ahman Green’s face. The Chiefs are 2-8 SU/ATS on the road vs. the NFC while GB is 11-5 ATS hosting the AFC. The Packers are also 32-4 SU at Lambeau facing teams off a SU win.
3 Units on Miami Dolphins -3½ -110
3* SELECTION: MIAMI Dave Wannstedt was Jimmy Johnson’s assistant HC the last time Miami traveled to Alltell Stadium. That was in the divisional playoffs in 2000 and if you remember that game you will recall that Dan Marino was ushered out of the NFL with a big Jacksonville boot to the ass 62-7. This time around the Dolphins are serious Super Bowl contenders while the Jags are re-building around their new starting QB Byron Leftwich. The Former Marshall QB has ignited Jack Del Rio’s offense but we are interested to see how the somewhat slow-footed pivot does against the Dolphins pass rush. Jay Fiedler won’t win any contests for being a flashy QB but he is consistent and keeps mistakes to a minimum. Ricky Williams was shut down last week against the Giants and looks to break out this week.
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FWIW Hilton Contest detail
Looking into the Gross totals and comparing to the current top 15 handicappers by points (17/25 or better 68%) you find the following:
Top 15 cappers
Mia -3.5 Selected 7- 0 Overall 104-39 roughly 3 to 1
NYG +2.5 Selected 6-0 Overall 61-40 only 1.5 to 1
Car + 5.5 Selected 4-1 Overall 125-27 Highest at 5 to1
Balt -5.5 Selected 5-1 Overall 104-23 Picked 4 to 1
Cle -3.0 Selected 3-0 Overall 92-40 Picked 2 to 1
Approx +3 yrs ago the OVERALL Hilton selections were almost a go against indicator but in the last several yrs the trend has reversed and the highest rated plays (Top players and even the entire contest group) have had a much higher winning percentage.
Just factors to keep in mind for Sunday
LLWM
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