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Interesting NFL UD Stats/Frankb03--what ya think
Table 1: NFL Underdogs vs. Point Spread
Year NFL Underdogs
2001 53.0%
2002 55.8%
2003 53.2%
2004 50.0%
2005 42.8%
2006 55.9%
2007 49.8%
2003 - 2007 51.2%
Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Above, we saw that betting on dogs would have resulted in a 51.2% winning percentage over the past few years. If you Bet Against the Public (in the NFL, most of these plays would be on the dog, at the 75% level), you would have hit 55.3% over the same period (see Table 2, below). Results are fairly consistent each year, with Betting Against the Public adding about 4% value per year.
This shows that Betting Against the Public can be beneficial to your handicapping. As you can see, the results can jump around from season to season. This is partly due to the relatively low number of games during the NFL Season. It’s also the nature of any investment: there is both risk AND return.
Table 2: Benefit of Betting Against Public (vs. Spread) at 75% Level
Year All Dogs Dogs, Bet Against Public
2003 53.2% 61.8%
2004 50.0% 50.0%
2005 42.8% 48.1%
2006 55.9% 69.8%
2007 49.8% 53.7%
2003 - 2007 51.2% 55.3%
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every score and percentage is correct.
Year NFL Underdogs
2001 53.0%
2002 55.8%
2003 53.2%
2004 50.0%
2005 42.8%
2006 55.9%
2007 49.8%
2003 - 2007 51.2%
Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Above, we saw that betting on dogs would have resulted in a 51.2% winning percentage over the past few years. If you Bet Against the Public (in the NFL, most of these plays would be on the dog, at the 75% level), you would have hit 55.3% over the same period (see Table 2, below). Results are fairly consistent each year, with Betting Against the Public adding about 4% value per year.
This shows that Betting Against the Public can be beneficial to your handicapping. As you can see, the results can jump around from season to season. This is partly due to the relatively low number of games during the NFL Season. It’s also the nature of any investment: there is both risk AND return.
Table 2: Benefit of Betting Against Public (vs. Spread) at 75% Level
Year All Dogs Dogs, Bet Against Public
2003 53.2% 61.8%
2004 50.0% 50.0%
2005 42.8% 48.1%
2006 55.9% 69.8%
2007 49.8% 53.7%
2003 - 2007 51.2% 55.3%
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every score and percentage is correct.
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