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ESPN Insider
There are so many attractive match-ups this week it might be hard to decide which game to watch. Which is why the remote becomes your best friend on Saturdays. In college, you've got to be special to win these big games on the road. Home field, great coaching and emotional edge leads us to Florida State, LSU and Wisconsin. But Oklahoma and Texas Tech are the two we like the most.
Thursday
South Carolina (-7½) over Kentucky: In true-freshman RB Demetris Summers, South Carolina just might have the best player in the country that no one has mentioned. Summers beat up Tennessee's line two weeks ago, and the Gamecocks' defense is one of the best in the SEC. Kentucky has been inconsistent, having its only solid game at home against Florida -- a game they gave away at the end. After two weeks to forget about the loss to Tennessee, South Carolina will be ready.
The play: South Carolina, two units at 7 or less, one unit over.
Friday
TCU vs. South Florida, under 45: While granting that TCU's offense is still a little banged up, its defense is one of the best in the country. They won at Tulane and held a strong Navy offense to three points. This is a team that wins on the road, and its catching the South Florida Bulls at a good time after a very emotional, hard-fought overtime victory last week over Louisville. But S. Florida has a 21-game winning streak on the line at Raymond James Stadium, dating back to '99.
The play: Under 45, one unit.
Michigan (+1) over Minnesota: While Michigan's chances for a championship game berth disappeared in a tough loss at Iowa last week, its hopes for a Big Ten crown are still alive -- but it must win this game to keep them that way. The Wolverines have the superior talent and surely are battle tested. This is their last stand. Minnesota has played four patsies plus two more from the Big Ten (Penn State and Northwestern). While it will be some scene in the Metrodome Friday night, we don't think Michigan will be awed.
The play: Michigan, one unit.
Saturday
Florida State (-7) over Miami: ESPN's Bill Curry said this Florida State team has more team speed than anyone he's seen in his 40 years in football. They're also healthy after a week off, possess the better quarterback, the more balanced attack and the faster defense. With Miami losing RB Frank Gore, the 'Canes are left very weak at that position. I also don't see Brock Berlin pulling off a comeback like he did against Florida. This isn't the Orange Bowl, and it surely isn't the Gators. He might need to be in the shotgun all game to avoid getting swallowed by the rush.
The play: FSU, one unit at -7 or more; two units at -6½ or less.
Oklahoma (-5½) over Texas: The Sooners play like they know they're going to win. Texas, against both Arkansas and Kansas State, played with no confidence, and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops has out-coached Mack Brown (sometimes badly) three years running. Oklahoma's strength is its pass rush. Texas displayed problems defending K-State's pass rush last week, having its QBs roll out often. This game hasn't been closer than 11 points the last three years and can't see why this year should be different.
The play: Oklahoma, two units up to 6½; one unit at 7 or more.
Tennessee (+2) over Georgia: Whoever wins this game has a great shot at winning the SEC. Tennessee matches up well with Georgia, and Georgia doesn't possess the smash-mouth running game (that South Carolina displayed) to challenge the Volunteers up front. In the air, both quarterbacks are good, but Casey Clausen showed me something coming back at Auburn last week. The line opened Monday with the Vols as the favorite. Maybe the line-makers know more than the bettors this time.
The play: Tennessee, one unit.
Oklahoma State (+3) over Kansas State: Kansas State has to be physically and emotionally down after last week's loss at Texas, a game in which they had taken control. Now they travel to Stillwater to take on a team that hasn't lost at home this season or last. Last year's home upsets included both Nebraska and Oklahoma. The Cowboys' defense outplayed Nebraska earlier this year, losing that game due to a fumble inside its own 10. We think their defense will make the difference here.
The play: Oklahoma State, one unit.
LSU (-10) over Florida: For those who think Florida will show up this week after being embarrassed at home by Mississippi, forget it. They're an average team playing a lot of freshmen, and one look at a schedule that reads "at LSU, at Arkansas and at Georgia" these next three Saturdays will have the Gators wiping their brows. LSU took the Gators apart last year in Gainesville. No reason it won't happen again.
The play: LSU, one unit.
Wisconsin (+2½) over Ohio State: Great teams don't get ready for big games by playing poorly. Ohio State was a great team last year that won big games away from home. This is a big game away from home, but Ohio State sure doesn't look like a great team this year. Winning ugly on the road is allowed. Winning ugly at home against San Diego State, Bowling Green and Northwestern, isn't a good way to prepare for a big game. Barry Alvarez has the Badgers improving after a slow start. Despite OSU getting some people back, including QB Craig Krenzel, Wisconsin will be ready for them. Especially at night on national TV.
The play: Wisconsin, one unit.
Auburn (+6) over Arkansas: Auburn is a very dangerous team right now. Last week's victory over Tennessee was a great confidence builder for both the running game and the defense. That was the team everybody thought they'd be this year. Even at home, Arkansas is catching them at the wrong time. The Razorbacks have a pretty good running game, too, but we expect Auburn to shut them down. And whoever wins that battle should win the game.
The play: Auburn, one unit.
The specials
Last week we re-learned a valuable lesson: Do not expect bad teams (like Eastern Michigan and Northwestern) to win for you, despite home field. That said, we're back to solid teams on a roll this week.
Texas Tech (-15½) over Iowa State: Last Saturday night, Texas Tech was awesome against A&M. The last five games B.J. Symons & Co. have averaged 500 yards per game in the air and nearly 5 TDs per. At home, the offensive fireworks should continue. Iowa State was badly beaten up going into last week's home game against Oklahoma. Now they're even worse physically, not to mention their state of mind.
The play: Texas Tech, 2 units.
Kansas (+ 6½) over Colorado: Kansas has had two weeks to get over its big victory against Missouri and to get ready for Colorado, a team that was embarrassed at Baylor last week. Normally, you'd think the Buffs would rededicate themselves at home this week, but they seem too beat up to do that. And a one-hour, players only team meeting this week could be the prelude to throwing in the towel for the year. Kansas QB Bill Whitmore will find the Buffs' soft pass defense to his liking.
The play: Kansas, one unit. Also, 2-1 on the money line is also attractive, if available.
Boise State (-23) over Tulsa: Boise State is starting to look like Boise State again. Last week, after trailing at halftime at Louisiana Tech, the Broncos staged a terrific second-half offensive attack against a fairly good defense. Tulsa's victory over Hawaii last week showed how improved they are, but being competitive on the big blue field at Boise is another story. No one keeps it close there.
The play: Boise State, one unit.
Passing thoughts
Colorado State has lost four straight to BYU at Provo, and we suspect this will be number five. ... Georgia Tech looks like another very dangerous team right now, and Wake Forest might be in for a surprise. ... Western Michigan is on a roll in the MAC, hosting Bowling Green and getting a bundle at home this week. ... Idaho found a QB and might be very tough at home against North Texas. ... Don't see Penn State hanging in with Purdue, or Notre Dame with Pitt, despite QB change for Irish. ... UTEP might hang in a long way against La. Tech, especially with 17+ after a confidence-building win over SMU and La Tech's tough loss to Boise State. ... Arizona still hasn't scored in the first half this year, believe it or not, but played Washington State a lot tougher than the final score last week. UCLA might have a tougher game than it thought it bargained for on Saturday.
Last week: 4-7 overall, -4 units; Specials: 2-2, +1 unit. Season: 32-23-2 overall, +10 units; Specials: 10-6-2, plus 6 units.
Lines as of 11 a.m. ET, Thursday, Oct. 9.
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