NCAAF Week 1 Trends and Indexes 8-28 through 9-1

[Kaptain]

08/29/08
04:18 PM Lineup Alert
MLB
Indians C Victor Martinez (.278; elbow surgery) has been activated from the DL and is expected to start tonight against the Mariners.

08/29/08
02:09 PM News Alert
CFB
Defending NCAA champions LSU & Appalachian State had their season opener moved to 10 a.m. Eastern on Saturday from the original scheduled time of 4 p.m. due to Tropical Storm Gustav.


08/29/08
12:28 PM Injury Alert
MLB
The Angels have placed 2B Howie Kendrick (.308; hamstring) on the 15-day DL.

08/29/08
12:27 PM News Alert
NFL
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall won his appeal and will only be suspended one game, which means he will sit out the regular-season opener.

08/29/08
12:25 PM News Alert
MLB
The Phillies have reportedly acquired OF Matt Stairs (.250) from the Blue Jays for a prospect.

08/29/08
12:24 PM Injury Alert
NBA
Spurs G Manu Ginobili needs surgery to repair a damaged ligament in his left heel and will likely then miss 6-8 weeks.

08/29/08
12:23 PM Injuries
NFL
Cowboys WR Sam Hurd suffered a high ankle sprain in Thursday's game and is expected to miss a few weeks.

08/29/08
12:21 PM Lineup Alert
MLB
Cubs C Geovany Soto (.285; rest) is NOT expected to start today against the Phillies.

[pm530]

College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Saturday, August 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

East Carolina vs. #17 Virginia Tech (Charlotte, NC) [ESPN | 12 PM ET]

East Carolina: Since becoming the head coach at East Carolina in 2005, Skip Holtz is a remarkable 26-11 ATS. The Pirates are also 17-6 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons. Last year in a 17-7 loss at Virginia Tech, the Pirates only allowed the Hokies to score one offensive touchdown (the other came on an interception return). The defense will need to improve in 2008. Last year East Carolina allowed opponents to score on 35.2 of their possessions. Offensively, the biggest obstacle for the Pirates will be replacing all-everything running back Chris Johnson. That task got even harder when East Carolina’s projected No. 1 running back - Dominique Lindsay - was lost for the season while J.R. Rogers is doubtful with a knee injury.

East Carolina is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.
The OVER is 4-1 in East Carolina's last 5 road games.

Key Injuries - RB J.R. Rogers (knee) is doubtful.
K Ben Hartman (leg) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Virginia Tech (-9.5, O/U 48.5): It was a familiar story at Virginia Tech’s final scrimmage of the summer: The defense dominated, recording seven sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Despite losing seven starters from last season’s third ranked defense, it looks like it’s business as usual in Blacksburg. On offense, senior Sean Glennon gets the nod over sophomore Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but the running back situation is still a mess heading into the season opener. Tech is also replacing its top four receivers from a year ago, so it looks like defense will lead the way once again for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. WR Zach

Key Injuries - Luckett (suspension) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28



Utah at Michigan [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

Utah: The Utes are no strangers to playing a tough opponent in their season opener. The last three years Utah has opened the season with Pac 10 opponents Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State, going 1-2 in those games. The Utes are lead by do-everything senior quarterback Brian Johnson and a defense that finished 2007 ranked fifth in points allowed. Utah’s offense has looked good recently in their scrimmages and they run the same spread attack that gave Michigan so many problems a year ago. The Utah is just 2-6 SU in road openers and 3-8 SU on the road versus BCS teams in the regular season.

Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Utah's last 8 road games.

Key Injuries - RB Darrell Mack (Achilles') is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Michigan (-3.5, O/U 41): No team has more question marks heading into the 2008 season than the Michigan Wolverines. Gone is the grind-it-out ground game favored by former head coach Lloyd Carr in favor of the wide-open spread option attack employed by Rich Rodriguez. There’s only one problem: who is going to run it? Rodriguez has yet to name a starting quarterback but both Nick Sheridan and Steven Threat are expected to see action against Utah. As a matter of fact, seven positions on Michigan’s offensive depth chart didn’t have starters listed as of Wednesday. It looks like the Wolverines will have to rely on a defense that returns eight starters, while the offense works out the kinks.

Michigan is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-3 in Michigan's last 12 home games.

Key Injuries - RB Carlos Brown (hip) is probable.
OL Cory Zirbel (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side Play of the Day)



#3 Southern Cal at Virginia [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

USC (-18.5, O/U 45.5): Starting quarterback Mark Sanchez completed a full practice on Monday and is ready to go against Virginia. As usual, the Trojans are loaded on both sides of the ball. USC’s defense is arguably the nation’s best, while on offense the Trojans go six-deep at the running back position. But while no one is questioning the talent level in Southern California, the Trojans haven’t exactly been cash cows as a heavy favorite lately. USC has only covered five of their last 16 games as a double-digit favorite. However, the Trojans have won their last six openers by an average score of 36-11.

USC is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Virginia's last 11 games overall.

Key Injuries - QB Mark Sanchez (knee) is probable.
RB C.J. Gable (hip/ankle) is probable.
CB Shareece Wright (groin) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 13

Virginia: No team has more question marks heading into the 2008 season than the Michigan Wolverines. Gone is the grind-it-out ground game favored by former head coach Lloyd Carr in favor of the wide-open spread option attack employed by Rich Rodriguez. There’s only one problem: who is going to run it? Rodriguez has yet to name a starting quarterback but both Nick Sheridan and Steven Threat are expected to see action against Utah. As a matter of fact, seven positions on Michigan’s offensive depth chart didn’t have starters listed as of Wednesday. It looks like the Wolverines will have to rely on a defense that returns eight starters, while the offense works out the kinks.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its first 2 games over the last 3 seasons.
The UNDER is 13-6 in Virginia's last 19 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 34



#24 Alabama vs. #9 Clemson (Atlanta, GA) [ABC | 8 PM ET]

Alabama: Nick Saban has set up the Tide to be major players in the SEC - in 2010. Alabama’s freshman class led by WR Julio Jones was unmatched according to most recruiting rankings. However, it’s the lack of depth among the upper classmen that could hurt the Tide this season. According to some NFL scouts, the talent level among upper classmen at Alabama this fall is worse than it was last year, when the Tide didn’t have a single player drafted. However, an influx of highly sought-after freshmen should start changing that quickly. The Tide has one of the nation’s best offensive lines but they will need some of those freshmen to contribute right away on a thin defensive front seven. 'Bama is a remarkable 9-0-1 ATS all-time versus Top 10 teams.

Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
The UNDER is 13-6 in Alabama's last 19 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - LB Prince Hall (suspension) is OUT.
LB Jimmy Johns (disciplinary) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Clemson (-4.5, O/U 48.5): Clemson is loaded at the skill positions on offense with QB Cullen Harper, RBs James Davis and C.J. Spiller and WR Aaron Kelly. However, heading into the season, the Tigers offensive line is still a work in progress. Clemson must replace four starters along the offensive front from a year ago and have no seniors and five freshmen among the two-deep. The tackles, in particular, were abused during both spring and summer practices. Defensively, the Tigers are loaded along the line and in the secondary. Freshman DE Da’Quan Bowers is already being referred to as the next Julius Peppers.

Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall.
The UNDER is 12-5 in Clemson's last 17 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - OL Mason Cloy (knee) is probable.
DT Rashaad Jackson (quad) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27



#20 Illinois vs. #6 Missouri (St. Louis, MO) [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Illinois: After their magical run to the Rose Bowl a season ago, Illinois will try for an encore this year but it won’t be easy opening up against sixth ranked Missouri. The Illini still haven’t found a suitable replacement at running back for the departed Rashard Mendenhall. However, keep an eye on freshman Jason Ford, who is the most talented of the Illinois backs. Juice Williams is still the starting quarterback for the Illini but backup Eddie McGee did receive 40 percent of the snaps with the first-team offense this summer. McGee almost led Illinois to a comeback victory filling in for an injured Williams last year in this matchup, going 17-of-31 for 257 yards in less than three quarters of work.

The OVER is 9-4 in Illinois' last 13 non-conference games.
The OVER is 4-0 in Illinois' last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - WR Jeff Cumberland (foot) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Missouri (-8.5, O/U 60): Chase Daniel is one of the leading Heisman candidates coming into the season and he could get off to a fast start against Illinois. Last year Daniel ripped the Illini defense for 359 yards and three touchdowns. While Daniel and the offense gets all the love, the Tigers defense is a formidable unit in its own right. Missouri returns 10 starters on a defensive unit that at times dominated the Tigers high-powered offense in practice this summer. Last year in conference play, Missouri actually led the Big 12 in fewest yards allowed, and was in the top three in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, points allowed and pass defense. The Tigers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games.

Missouri is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games overall.
Missouri is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Key Injuries - LB Van Alexander (knee) is doubtful.
CB Castine Bridges (ankle) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 38

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday's Games

Top 13 games

Michigan had 11 players transfer out who had eligibility left, so their depth isn't good; they also don't have QB who is well-suited to run spread, so they might use a RB there at times. Utah won eight of last nine games in '07, has senior QB (20 starts) and is 11-4 vs. spread in last 15 tries as road dog. Michigan is
4-9 vs. spread in non-league games the last three years.

Houston Nutt makes his debut for Ole Miss, which won its last three games vs Memphis by combined total of just nine points. Both teams have solid OLs, new Abs. Rebels are just 2-7-2 vs spread in last 11 tries as a home favorite. Memphis is 9-5-1 in last 15 tries as road dog; eight of their top ten offensive linemen are back. This is regional rivalry where underdog is 4-0-1 vs. spread last five meetings.

Bo Pelini makes his Nebraska debut, vs Western Michigan squad that has ten starters back on defense; Broncos are 10-8 vs spread as road dog since '04, 6-5 in non-MAC games under Cubit. Huskers are 8-11 as home favorite since '04, but covered 13 of last 20 when laying double digits, which they haven't done a lot in recent years. LY, Broncos lost 62-24 at West Virginia, 52-24 at Missouri.

Oregon QB Costa is out for year, so Duck QBs an inexperienced group. Oregon is 12-3 vs spread in last 15 tries as home favorite, 25-17 in Pac-10 play since '03- they won last four games vs rival Washington by average score of 41-19. Huskies are 7-6-1 as road dog under Willingham; they're young team with only 11 junior/senior starters. Ducks had 465 rushing yards in last year's 55-34 win in Seattle (-13).

TCU won last three meetings vs New Mexico (49-28/27-21/37-0); Frogs have four starters back on OL, 15 starters back overall, but are just 4-10-1 vs. spread in last 15 tries as road favorite. Lobos have only ten starters back; they're 9-7-1 as home dog since '00. New Mexico has junior QB with 18 starts returning but has only one starter back on its offensive line.

Louisiana Tech doesn't get to host many SEC teams; Dooley is 2-0 as home dog in Ruston, but he's breaking in new QB, has three sophomore starters on OL, though Tech does have seven OL who have started a game. Miss State is 2-1 as road favorite under Croom; their OL won't be as good as LY, but they do have eight starters back from strong defense that led State to bowl game last season.

Matt Ryan is with Falcons now, so Boston College hits road with new starting QB, trying to break 0-8 pointspread skid as road favorite, against Kent squad that has senior QB with 19 career starts, and three seniors starting on OL. Kent is just 2-4 as recent home dog (game is at Browns Stadium, virtual home game for Kent); they have 70 starts back on OL, 16 starters back overall. .

Washington State will have all the fans in Seattle, but Oklahoma State has better QB in Robinson, is 8-3 vs. spread as road fave. Cowboys have 89 starts back on OL (18th-best in US) , is 11-7 vs spread in last 18 non-league games. Wazzu has new coach, new QB, but does have four starters back on OL, and is 8-3 vs spread in alst eleven tries as home dog (technically not home game, but in reality, it is).

Virginia Tech is using more experienced, less mobile Glennon at QB; Hokies beat East Carolina 17-7 LY (-28). Tech is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 tries as road favorite, but just 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight non-ACC games. East Carolina covered eight of last 11 as home dog; they're 12-6 vs spread in non-league games under Holtz, who got contract extension this week. Neither team gained 300 TY in LY's meeting.

Missouri beat Illinois 40-34 LY (-4), but then Illinois got chosen for BCS bowl over Tigers, so you could make case both sides have revenge motive here. Illinois covered seven of last nine as underdog, four of five on road. Mizzou covered eight of last ten non-league games. Both teams have experienced QB’s with 20+ starts, and two senior starters on offensive line.

Cal chose Riley over Longshore to start at QB; interesting to see if they bounce back from '07 collapse, when they went from #2 in country to 6-6 very quickly. Bears are 10-16 vs spread as favorite last three years, 6-9 at home- they covered just five of last 14 non-league games. Michigan State was 4-0-1 as dog LY; they're 7-4-1 vs. spread in non-league games since 2005.

Clemson is picked by most to win ACC, because of their strong RB/WR group and senior QB. Alabama also has senior QB, but their most talented players are mostly freshmen—many will play here, on neutral Georgia Dome field. Clemson is just 12-17 as a favorite since '04, 5-9 on road. Alabama is 7-5-2 vs spread in its last 14 games as dog, 9-0-1 vs spread in last ten vs Top 10 clubs

Southern Miss is playing first game with new, more wide-open offense; they've only got six starters back on offense, four on defense, so young team with new coach, and QB making only his second start. UL-Lafayette is 10-6 vs spread as road dog; its QB is senior with 15 career starts. Cajuns lost 37-19 at Central Florida LY (+22), a C-USA rival of Southern Miss.

Rest of the Card

-- Northwestern covered just twice in last 16 tries as home fave. Underdog is 29-11 vs spread in its last forty home games.

-- Wyoming rallied from 23-6 deficit to win 34-33 at Ohio LY (-4), winning despite -3 turnover ratio. Cowboys covered 11 of last 15 non-league games.

-- Wisconsin is 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games as home fave, covering 10 of last 13 non-league games. Akron lost 20-2 LY at Ohio State, 41-24 at Indiana in its two games vs Big 11 foes.

-- Tulsa had 362 rushing yards, 333 passing yards in 38-30 win vs UAB LY (-23); Tulsa is 7-4 vs spread as road favorite since '05. UAB covered just nine of last 24 conference games.

-- Minnesota's horrible 2007 included splitting pair of OT games vs MAC teams. Northern Illinois is 12-8 in last 20 tries as road dog, but has new coach, who previously won big in I-AA.

-- Pitt is expected to challenge for Big East title; junior Stull will start at QB for team that is 7-6 as home favorite with Wannstedt Bowling Green is 6-4 as road underdog since 2006.

-- Florida is 8-3-1 vs spread as home favorite the last two years, but with Miami game on deck and Harvin sitting out, hard to lay five TDs vs explosive Hawai'i (8-6 vs spread on road since '05).

-- USC has new QB and very inexperienced OL; QB Sanchez will start three weeks after dislocating kneecap, vs a Virginia squad that is also breaking in new QB. Cavaliers are 13-3 as home dog.

-- Arizona covered just three of last 17 as home favorite, one of eight under Stoops, but Tuitama is senior QB with 25 starts in his career. Idaho is 10-17 vs spread in last 27 tries as road dog.

-- Utah State is 11-7 vs spread as road dog under Guy. UNLV is 2-12 vs spread in last 14 as home favorite. Both teams have lot of returning depth on their offensive lines.

-- Indiana gets QB Lewis from suspension in time for its opener (what a surprise!!!) but won't have its best pass rusher here, vs Western Kentucky, playing first game as full-fledged D-I team.

-- UL-Monroe beat Alabama LY, so they should have Auburn's attention; they're 12-5 vs spread oin last 17 tries as dog on road. Tigers unveil their new wise-open spread offense here.

-- FAU coach Schnellenberger implied Texas was soft; his Owls covered just six of last 18 as road dog. Texas is 11-6 vs spread as home favorite. FAU lost 42-6 to Oklahoma State last season.

-- Kansas outgained Florida International 615-255 LY in 55-3 win Jayhawks covered 13 of last 17 as home favorite- they have four senior starters on offensive line. FIU as a road underdog.

-- Mike Sherman makes Texas A&M debut vs. Arkansas State club that is 11-9 vs spread as road dog since '04. Aggies are 9-6 in last 15 tries as home favorite, but are learning new offense.

-- Kansas State covered nine of last 11 as home favorite, but is just 5-11 vs spread in last 16 non-league games. North Texas is 4-9 vs spread in its last 13 games as road underdog.

[pm530]

College Football - Tips & Trends

NCAAF


Sunday, August 31

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky at Louisville [ESPN | 3:30 PM ET]

Kentucky: Sophomore QB Mike Hartline won the starting job when senior Curtis Pulley was excused from the team in mid-August. Pulley would have likely been the starter for Kentucky in this game, so there are obvious question marks surrounding the Cats offense heading into the season. There are fewer concerns on defense, where Kentucky may have its most talent on that side of the ball in over a decade. Seven starters return from last year’s much improved defense, led by one of the top corners in the country, Trevard Lindley. Expect Kentucky to rely on a strong defense and formidable running game while Hartline gets up to speed.

Kentucky is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings.

Key Injuries - OL Stuart Hines (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side Play of the Day)

Louisville (-3.5, O/U 58.5): Things can only get better for a Louisville defense that was gashed last season to the tune of 416 yards and 35.2 points per game. The pass defense was particularly awful, allowing 25 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions. Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English was brought in to sure up the defense but he has an uphill battle on his hands. Seven opponents scored more than 30 points on Louisville last season. Offensively, the Cardinals lost quarterback Brian Brohm but highly touted NFL-prospect Hunter Cantwell is more than a viable replacement, despite only starting four games. The Cards are 7-2 SU in this series.

Louisville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.
The OVER is 3-0 in Louisville's last 3 games overall.

Key Injuries - WR Trent Guy (back) is doubtful.
WR Scott Long (foot) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday's Dunkel Write-up


Colorado vs. Colorado State (N)
New Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild is welcomed into this rivalry that has seen the last six encounters decided by just 25 points. The Rams are the underdog pick (+11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Colorado favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+11 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Sunday's Games

Kentucky beat Louisville 40-34 at home LY, ending losing skid in series; they lost last two visits here, 28-0/59-28. Both teams have just four starters back on offense, but Louisville's QB has some experience, making four starts. Cardinals were 1-4 as fave at home LY, after covering 15 of last 17 in Petrino era. Wildcats are 7-10 vs spread in last 17 tries as road dog.

Underdog is 9-3 vs spread in last dozen Colorado-Colorado St. games, with small favorites (-2/-2.5) covering last two years; the last six series games were decided by total of 25 points. Neutral setting (Denver) aids close nature of games. New coach, a new QB and no senior starters on OL for Rams; they're 10-13 as dog since '04. Buffs are 9-7 vs spread in last 16 tries as a favorite.

Monday's Games

Rutgers, Fresno State both have experienced senior QBs; guest has four senior starters on OL, and history of going anywhere to play non-WAC games- they're 21-11 vs spread outside of the WAC, 14-9 vs spread in last 23 tries as road dog. Knights have been minus in turnovers in five of last six years (+11 in '06), just as Fresno is -19 in TOs last three years. Rutgers is 9-1 vs spread out of Big East, 7-5 in last dozen tries as a home favorite.

UCLA is using its 3rd-string QB due to injury; they covered last seven tries as a home underdog, have alum Neuheisel coaching. Tennessee has eight new coaches, new QB, new offense- they covered six of last seven as road favorite, are 7-3 vs spread in last ten non-SEC games. Bruins covered 15 of last 21 overall as an underdog. UCLA's QB played some for San Diego State two years ago, so he is not without experience.

[pm530]

College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Monday, September 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fresno State at Rutgers [ESPN | 4 PM ET]

Fresno State: As usual, Fresno State starts the year off on the road against a BCS Conference opponent. The long trip and hype should not be a big problem for the veteran Bulldogs, who return 16 starters, including 10 on offense and have visions of crashing the BCS party at the end of the year much like Hawaii did a season ago. The Bulldogs return a trio of returning running backs—Lonyae Miller, Ryan Mathews and Anthony Harding— who combined for 1,924 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. Fresno State needs to get better on defense, where they ranked 73rd in the country last year.

Fresno State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games.
Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Rutgers (-4, O/U 58): It’s Game 1 for the Scarlet Knights without career-rushing leader Ray Rice. With Rice now in the NFL, more of an onus will be on quarterback Mike Teel and the passing game to make plays. Teel is equipped with two good receivers as well, so expect Rutgers to take to the air much more often this season. Filling the big shoes left by Rice will be the tandem of Mason Robinson and Kordell Young. Neither won the job outright, so Greg Schiano will employ a committee approach to start the year. Rutgers has won 12 of their last 14 non-conf home games but is just 8-9 as a home favorite under Schiano.

Rutgers is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 non-conference games.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in Rutgers last 11 road games.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 31



#18 Tennessee at UCLA [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Tennessee (-7, O/U 46): Tennessee is not only making a cross-country trip to face the Bruins, they are doing so with a new starting quarterback. Jonathan Crompton replaces Erik Ainge as the leader of the Vols offense. Crompton has a strong arm and is much more mobile than Ainge. New offensive coordinator Dave Clawson said he will move Crompton out of the pocket a lot this season. Crompton has the luxury of handing the ball off to Arian Foster, throwing to Lucas Taylor and being protected by a veteran offensive line. On defense, the Vols have one of the best secondary’s in the country, led by future first-round draft pick Eric Berry

Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Tennessee's last seven games.

Key Injuries - RB Arian Foster (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side Play of the Day)

UCLA: When Rick Neuheisel took over at UCLA, he probably wasn’t expecting to get off to such a rocky start before even playing a game. With injuries to Pat Cowan and Ben Olson, the Bruins are down to their third option at quarterback, junior college transfer Kevin Craft. Neuheisel is hoping that early on, Craft can manage the game and not make mistakes. To make things even harder on Craft, the Bruins offensive line is a mess right now. A lot of pressure is going to put on UCLA’s defense. The unit will need to be the strength of the team until the offense gets going. UCLA has won seven straight games as a home underdog.

UCLA is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus the SEC.
UCLA is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index (with write-up)

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

Tennessee at UCLA
The Bruins come in banged up and will have to go with junior college transfer Kevin Craft at QB. But home field has proven a strong advantage for UCLA as the Bruins are 12-2 SU and ATS in their home openers and 17-4 ATS as home underdogs. UCLA is the underdog pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has Tennessee favored by just 4. Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+7). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Game 211-212: Fresno State at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 88.467; Rutgers 97.527
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 9; 67
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 5 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-5 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: Tennessee at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 99.430; UCLA 95.364
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+7); Over

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------