Wednesday Trends and Indexes 8/20

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, August 19th

National League

Houston at Milwaukee, 2:05 ET
Wandy Rodriguez (L) vs. Manny Parra (L)
Rodriguez: Hou 14-5 in August
Parra: Mil 3-10 off div loss as favorite

Washington at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Collen Balester (R) vs. Brett Myers (R)
Balester: Wash 46-31 Under vs. righties
Myers: 4-12 TSR as favorite

Atlanta at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Jair Jurrjens (R) vs. Mike Pelfrey (R)
Jurrjens: 10-3 TSR as underdog
Pelfrey: 5-12 TSR vs. division

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET
Bronson Arroyo (R) vs. Ted Lilly (L)
Arroyo: 8-22 TSR in road games
Lilly: Cubs 18-4 at home in night games

Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Jason Davis (R) vs. Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Davis: Pit 14-4 Under in August
Wellemeyer: Stl 14-7 off BB losses

San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Jake Peavy (R) vs. Dan Haren (R)
Peavy: SD 5-18 off one run loss
Haren: Ari 9-0 when the total is 7 or less

Colorado at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Jeff Francis (L) vs. Chad Billingsley (R)
Francis: Col 16-1 Over off BB wins by 4+ runs
Billingsley: LAD 17-5 at home after a loss by 4+ runs

Florida at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Scott Olsen (L) vs. Matt Cain (R)
Olsen: 16-5 Over as a road underdog
Cain: 15-33 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5

American League

Oakland at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Dallas Braden (L) vs. Francisco Liriano (L)
Braden: Oak 12-31 L43 games
Liriano: Min 18-5 L23 home games

Seattle at Chicago White Sox, 2:05 ET
R.A. Dickey (R) vs. Gavin Floyd (R)
Dickey: Sea 3-24 as a road underdog of +175 to +250
Floyd: 11-2 TSR in home games

Kansas City at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Gil Meche (R) vs. Zach Jackson (L)
Meche: 3-0 TSR, 3.44 ERA L3 starts
Jackson: Cle 19-6 Under off BB wins

Boston at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Clay Buchholz (R) vs. Chris Waters (L)
Buchholz: 0-6 TSR as road favorite
Waters: Bal 19-9 Over w/ double revenge

NY Yankees at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Andy Pettitte (L) vs. David Purcey (L)
Pettitte: 3-8 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175
Purcey: Tor 39-19 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5

LA Angels at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Jered Weaver (R) vs. Matt Garza (R)
Weaver: Angels 16-5 w/ double revenge
Garza: 14-4 Under as home favorite

Detroit at Texas, 8:05 ET
Nate Robertson (L) vs. Kevin Millwood (R)
Robertson: Det 7-0 when the total is 11 or higher
Millwood: 0-3 TSR, 9.23 ERA L3 starts

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB


Wednesday, August 20

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Hot Lines: Wednesday's best MLB bets
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Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-120, 11 1/2)

Talk about a couple bullpens that will be looking for Brett Favre's stash of Vicodin after tonight. Even if the over/under was 15, it's tough not to think 20 runs is a very attainable goal. Since returning from a groin injury, veteran Kevin Millwood (6-7, 5.58) was lit up for five runs, four home runs, and 10 hits in just under five innings. As for his counterpart Nate Robertson (7-9, 5.87), the southpaw has been unbelievably consistent allowing lefties to hit .313 and righties to .315. The two teams combined for 14 runs yesterday, and Detroit actually had a nice start from their new ace Armando Galarraga. Tonight, both teams treat this like a softball championship as fans sit through five hours of entertainment.

Pick: over


Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (-1 1/2, -135)

With Oakland hitting .242 and using the artist formerly known as Frank Thomas at clean-up (.237 8 HR), for some reason 1 1/2 runs doesn't seem too risky. As mentioned yesterday, the A's were satisfied with winning the opener and probably were not too happy staying in Minneapolis any longer. Since being re-called after a masterful stint in AAA, the former Cy Young candidate Francisco Liriano is 3-0 with a 1.45. On self-proclaimed genius Billy Beane's side, a guy named Dallas Braden with a career ERA of 5.88. Especially with the White Sox still rolling, look for the Twins to look sharp again tonight.

Pick: Twins


Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-1 1/2, -125)

After the Phillies debacle out West (2-5), they returned home to the best home cooking in the National League…the Nats! While they barely pulled out a victory yesterday, sometimes those nail-biters can start the confidence train rolling. Throw in Washington's 22-year-old Collin Balester (2-5, 5.06) who was thrown into the rotation way too early, and the Philly bats should wake up in a major way. Even though Brett Myers has struggled this season, after stints in the minors and altercations with management, the righty finally seems to have found a grove (last four starts: 3-1, 1.95). Do as you will, but minus 1 1/2 seems like a safe play again for this one.

Pick: Phillies

[Udog]

MLB


Wednesday, August 20


Updated
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Tips and Trends
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Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays [7:10 PM ET]

Angels: Jered Weaver had his best performance in his last four starts in his most recent outing against Cleveland but came up on the short end of the stick, despite only allowing two runs. In his three starts prior to that one, Weaver had allowed 14 runs in 16.2 innings of work. Weaver has been a beast in his career against the Rays. He?s a perfect 2-0 versus Tampa with a stellar 1.93 ERA. Weaver?s last start went UNDER, ending a streak of three straight OVERS with him on the mound.

Angels are 2-6 in Weaver's last 8 Wednesday starts.
The OVER is 7-3 in LA's last 10 games vs. AL East.

Key Injuries - 3B Maicer Izturis (.269; thumb) is OUT for the season.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Rays (-125, O/U 8.5): Matt Garza is coming off pitching a gem versus the Rangers. In the win over Texas, Garza pitched a complete game, two-hit shutout, striking out nine. It?s the second time in four starts that Garza has pitched a complete game. He?s been tough at home this season, going 6-2 with an ERA of 2.47. Garza has one career start versus the Angels but it didn?t go well. He took the loss after allowing four runs in 5.1 innings. The UNDER is 4-1 in Garza?s last five starts.

Rays are 43-10 in their last 52 home games.
The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Key Injuries - 3B Evan Longoria (.278; wrist) is on the 15-day DL.
OF Carl Crawford (.273; hand) is OUT for the season.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side Play of the Day)



San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks [9:40 PM ET]

Padres: Jake Peavy is only 9-8 on the season, but he does possess an impressive 2.61 ERA. Peavy has suffered from a lack of run support. As a matter of fact, in his last 10 starts Peavy has allowed three runs or less nine times. However, he?s just 4-4 with two no-decisions over that span. Peavy has struggled against Arizona over his career, going just 11-10 with a 4.73 ERA. The UNDER is money with Peavy on the mound, going 8-1-1 in his last 10 outings.

Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 Wednesday games.
The OVER is 4-1 in San Diego's last 5 road games.

Key Injuries - C Nick Hundley (.198; ankle) has returned.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Diamondbacks (-160, O/U 7): Dan Haren has been red hot, going 4-1 in his last five starts. In his last outing versus Colorado, Haren allowed only two runs in eight innings of work. Haren has been tough to beat at Bank One Ballpark, going 9-3 with a minuscule 2.96 ERA. Haren faced the Padres three weeks ago, getting the win after allowing just three runs over seven innings. Despite Haren?s stellar pitching, the OVER is 4-1 in his last five starts.

Diamondbacks are 9-4 in Haren's last 13 home starts.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - 1B Conor Jackson (.302; rest) has returned.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4


Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers [10:10 PM ET]

Rockies: Rockies fans must close their eyes every time Jeff Francis takes the mound this season. Francis hasn?t won a start since June 18 and has allowed 32 hits and 20 runs in his last 22 innings of work. Francis has been awful on the road, where he?s 1-3 with a 6.06 ERA on the year. There is a silver lining, however. He?s 5-2 lifetime against the Dodgers with a strong 2.69 ERA. You can expect a lot of runs with Francis on the mound. In his last five starts, the OVER is 4-1.

Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win.
The OVER is 8-3 in Colorado's last 10 games following a win.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Dodgers (-185, O/U 7.5): One of the reasons the Dodgers are competing for the NL West crown is the consistency of Chad Billingsley. Over his last 10 starts, Billingsley has given up more than three runs just once. He?s particularly tough at Dodger Stadium, where he?s 8-4 with an ERA of 3.28 this season. However, Billingsley hasn?t had much luck in four career starts versus the Rockies, going 0-2 with a lofty 6.46 ERA. Billingsley?s last three home starts have gone UNDER the total.

Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
The UNDER is 7-3 in LA's last 10 games vs. NL West.

Key Injuries - 2B Jeff Kent (.279; foot) has returned.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6