Thursday Trends and Indexes 8/1

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Trends and Indexes
Friday August 1

Good Luck on day #214 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Daily Sports Roundup

Friday, August 1

It'll be Cole Hamels vs. Kyle Lohse on Friday night as the Philadelphia Phillies head west to Missouri to open up a three-game weekend set against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Hamels will be looking to shake off his most recent outing when he takes to the mound for the Phillies on Friday. The lefthander was knocked around for nine runs (four earned) on six hits over just 3 2-3 innings last time out against the Braves, walking three and fanning just two. That pushed his ERA to 3.27 on the year, and dropped him to 9-6.

Back on July 8, though, Hamels had a strong start against the Cardinals, giving up just two earned runs on three hits over seven innings of work (and striking out eight). Still, that wasn't enough to earn him a victory, as the Phillies were blanked in a 2-0 defeat. Overall Hamels is 4-2 with four no-decisions in his last 10 starts, and Philadelphia is 6-4.

Lohse is coming off a poor outing as well. The righthander was rocked for seven earned runs on 11 hits in just five innings of work against the Mets on July 27, giving up three home runs and striking out just two batters. That was Lohse's first loss since May 8 against the Rockies; between those two bad outings he went 9-0 with five no-decisions.

The Cardinals are 7-3 over Lohse's last 10 starts, including a 3-2 win over the Phillies on June 14. Lohse allowed just two earned runs on four hits over eight innings pitched in that contest. On the season the righthander is now 12-3 with a respectable 3.68 ERA.

The Cubs will host the Pirates on Friday night, with Jason Marquis (6-6, 4.69 ERA) expected to take on Jeff Karstens (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Karstens will be making his first appearance for Pittsburgh since being acquired from New York. The other Central contender, the Brewers, will be looking to get back on the winning track when they open a weekend series in Atlanta. Jeff Suppan (5-7, 5.04 ERA) will get the ball for Milwaukee.

Other NL games on Friday: Colorado at Florida, the Mets at Houston, San Francisco at San Diego, and Arizona at the Dodgers. It'll be young vs. old in that last matchup, as Randy Johnson (8-7, 4.58 ERA) takes on L.A. rookie Clayton Kershaw (1-3, 4.53 ERA).

The American League's schedule for Friday leads off with the Athletics in Boston, as Justin Duchscherer (10-7, 2.37 ERA) goes up against Tim Wakefield (6-8, 3.94 ERA). Duchscherer was finally lit up last time out, surrendering eight earned runs in six innings in a loss to Texas. Wakefield gave up six runs in a loss to the rival Yankees last time out.

Those Yankees host the Angels on Friday, while Texas gets a visit from Toronto. Other Friday AL action includes Cleveland at Minnesota, the White Sox at Kansas City, and Baltimore at Seattle, while Scott Kazmir (8-5, 2.84 ERA) gets the ball for the Rays as they look to get a win against the Tigers and starting pitcher Zach Miner (5-3, 3.65 ERA).

Meanwhile, the Canadian Football League offers up a single game on Friday night, with the Blue Bombers in Toronto to take on the Argonauts (at 7:00pm ET). The Argos have been pegged as 3-point home favorites in this contest, while the game's total is sitting at 53.5 points. Toronto is 2-2-1 ATS so far this season, while Winnipeg is a costly 1-4 ATS.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Friday

-- Cubs whacked Milwaukee again, 11-4, sweeping the four games. At least the Brewers made a lot of money this week.

-- Anibal Sanchez made his first start since May '07, beating the Rockies 12-2. He could really help the Marlins.

-- Braves salvaged last game of four-game series, beating the Cardinals 9-4. Hampton went five innings, didn't get the win.

-- How good are the Angels? They came to Bronx and waxed the Bombers 12-6. Angel-Cub World Series looks probable.

-- D-Day in Washington, as Felipe Lopez/Paul LoDuca both got released after Nationals lost their ninth straight game.

-- Brandon Webb is 8-0 in divisional games this season.

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[pm530]

Friday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Red Sox must have really hated having Manny Ramirez on the team, to trade him straight up for Jason Bay, then pay the remaining salary Ramirez is owed this season.

12) Opinion was just about unanimous that Pirates did really well in this trade, getting four players for Bay-- I like Brandon Moss myself. Hanson/LaRoche have been disappointments.

11) Ken Griffey Jr is with White Sox now; looks like he has to play CF there, with Swisher moving to first base. Sox just lost three of four in Minnesota- we'll see if this helps. Konerko and his .215 batting average head to the Pale Hose bench.

10) Someone needs to tell Omar Minaya he runs team that has deep pockets; the Mets did nothing at the trade deadline, and in no way are they a cinch to make the playoffs. Even Florida went out and added Arthur Rhodes- they did something.

9) Then we have Tampa, which starts August with three-game lead over Boston, 4.5 over Bronx- the Rays, in midst of biggest upset maybe in baseball history, did nothing to help a lineup that has scored 44 runs in its last twenty games.

8) Why? It may be that the Rays are counting on a return by one Rocco Baldelli, who tweaked his hamstring May 15, 2007 and has yet to play since. He is hitting well over .300 down at AA Montgomery, in one of thr world's longest rehab stints.

7) Batters are hitting .336 against Livan Hernandez, yet they've yet to bring Francisco Liriano up from Rochester. Go figure.

6) Brandon Webb beat Derek Lowe 2-1 Thursday; Arizona is 28-13 in its division, has two-game lead in NL West. Key play in game was Conor Jackson throwing out tying run at plate from leftfield, to end the eighth inning.

5) Rich Harden has allowed two runs in four starts for Cubs.

4) Apparently, the Reds don't want to trade Adam Dunn; every year, Dunn is rumored to be gone, but he's still in Cincinnati.

3) Western Conference in NBA got lot stronger with Rockets trading for Ron Artest, who is wacky but a terrific player. Not too sure what it does for the Kings, but it helps Houston.

2) It looks like the #1 college hoop recruit for next spring might soon be a Baylor Bear. Baylor signed the kid's AAU coach as Director of Basketball Operations-- in such cases, the kid often follows his mentor to that school. That puts Baylor on the map

1) I got a text Thursday morning, asking what would happen if I was offered $20 million to quit my job, like Brett Favre. Could not type a response for a few minutes, I was laughing so hard. Problem is, Favre doesn't seem to be about money, he seems to crave the competition, and thats bad news for the Packers.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

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Friday, August 1
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WINNIPEG (1 - 4) at TORONTO (2 - 3) - 8/1/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Saturday, August 2
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SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 0) at CALGARY (3 - 2) - 8/2/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-90 ATS (+22.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-90 ATS (+22.0 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 81-49 ATS (+27.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-3 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Week 6 CFL games

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Friday, August 1

Winnipeg (1-4) @ Toronto (2-3)-- Bombers passed for 450 yds last week in upset of Calgary, after not having 300+ in any of their first four games. Bombers are allowing 31.4 ppg. Argos led at half in Regina last week, lost for third time in last four games; they average 80.6 ypg in penalties. Three of last four Toronto games went over. Argos won 23-16 at Winnipeg in Week 1, as +3 turnover ratio negated Bombers' 367-230 edge in yardage.


Saturday, August 2

Saskatchewan (5-0) @ Calgary (3-2)-- Roughriders are winning despite revolving door at QB; they trailed Argos 18-10 at hal last week, rallied for a 28-22 home win. Stampeders allowed 19 points or less in all three wins, 34-32 in its losses; they've had 9+ penalties in all their games (71 ypg). Three of their last four games went over total. Riders are 5-0 against the spread, too.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Additional Trends

CFL

Week 6

Trend Sheet

Friday, August 1

7:00 PM WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
Winnipeg is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home



Saturday, August 2

AUGUST 2, 8:00 PM SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Saskatchewan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Calgary is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Preview and Predictions

CFL
Preview and Predictions


CFL games – Week 6

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Preview and Predictions
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Friday, August 1

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4) at Toronto Argonauts (2-3) (-3 ½, O/U 53 1/2)

Injuries have prevented both teams from being in first place in the East Division.

Center Dominic Picard, DL Jon Oosterhuis and LG Matt Sheridan are out indefinitely for Winnipeg, while CB Robert Bean will miss Week 6. Wide receiver Milt Stegall is listed as doubtful and LB Ike Charlton is listed as probable. Both have knee injuries.

Toronto will be without WRs David Boston (out indefinitely with a foot injury) and Bethel Johnson (ankle). They will also be without LB Kevin Eiben this week.

The Argonauts are the favorite but QB Ryan Dinwiddie led the Bombers last week to a 32-28 win against Calgary in which he threw for 450 yards, completing 24 of 39 pass attempts with one TD. Should he show so much poise against the Argonauts, the Bombers could have another upset win. And you could make a case that Kerry Joseph still seems to struggle in Toronto’s offensive schemes.

The Argos are at home but you have to like Winnipeg’s chances in this one.

Pick: Winnipeg




Saturday, August 2

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-0) at Calgary Stampeders (3-2) (-6, O/U 54 1/2)

They are the defending Grey Cup champs but the question remains: Are the Roughriders that good? This game at McMahon Stadium could prove to be a reality check for Saskatchewan.

The two teams have split their last 10 showdowns. Starting QB Marcus Crandell is listed as probable and will be back as a starter after missing three weeks of action with a hamstring injury. This is great news for the Roughriders who will be without Darian Durant for the next three or four weeks with ribs fractured.

Durant has been brilliant in relief of Crandell who will now try to keep the Riders’ winning streak alive. His timing may be off at the start of the game and Saskatchewan will need its defence to stop Henry Burris, who threw three touchdown strikes last week while completing 31 of 44 pass attempts for 386 yards in a 32-28 loss to Winnipeg.

Calgary is at home and should win this one.

Pick: Calgary

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Friday, August 1

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Hot Pitchers
-- Jimenez is 5-1, 1.74 in his last six starts.
-- Volstad has 2,61 RA in his first three big league starts.
-- Backe is 1-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 2-0, 2.56 in his last four road starts. Cardinals won five of last seven Lohse home starts.
-- Lincecum allowed one run in 20.1 IP vs Padres, but he won only one of the three games (Giants won other two in X-inn).
-- Johnson is 4-0, 1.71 in his last four starts.

-- Duchscherer has 2.25 RA in his last four road starts.
-- Miner is 2-0, 1.50 in pair of starts for Detroit. Rays won seven of eight Kazmir home starts.
-- Twins won seven of last eight Blackburn home starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Marquis is 0-2, 3.81 in his last four starts, but Cubs are 5-1 in his last six starts at Wrigley. Karstens is 3-5, 5.65 in nine major league starts, all with Bronx Bombers.
-- Reds are 0-6 when Bailey starts (0-4, 7.76). Perez is 1-5, 6.03 in his last seven starts.
-- James is 2-3, 8.22 in five starts. last of which was May 15; the home team won all five of his starts. Suppan is 1-3, 10.05 in his last six starts.
-- Martinez hasn't pitched in 19 days (leg/shoulder/death in his family); he hasn't finished sixth inning in his last five starts.
-- Banks has a 6.51 RA in his last five starts for Padres.
-- Kershaw is 1-2, 3.46 in five home starts for Dodgers.

-- Santana is 0-2, 6.75 in his last couple starts. Ponson has 7.84 RA in his last four starts.
-- Wakefield is 1-3, 4.41 in his last five starts.
-- Rookie Hunter was 2-2, 3.24 in just five starts at AAA level. Marcum is 0-2, 8.27 in his las6t three big league starts.
-- Vazquez is 0-4, 6.46 in his last six starts. Hochevar is 1-3, 7.77 in his last six starts.
-- Indians lost five of six Sowers road starts.
-- Olson is 1-2, 9.12 in his last five starts. Mariners are 2-6 when Washburn staarts at Safeco.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won their last five games, scoring 40 runs.
-- Marlins won three of their last four games.
-- Cardinals won three of their last four games. Phillies won their last four games, scoring 30 runs.
-- Arizona won eight of last ten games, is 28-13 vs NL West. Dodgers won five of their last seven games.

-- Angels won thirteen of their last fifteen games.
-- Rays are 36-9 in last 45 home games. Tigers won six of last eight road games.
-- Royals won their last four games, allowing eight runs.
-- Minnesota won five of its last six games. Rangers are 6-4 in their last ten home games.
-- Orioles won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates are 6-10 in their last sixteen games.
-- Rockies lost three of their last four games.
-- Washington lost last nine games, scoring 12 runs total in last seven contests. Reds lost five of their last six games.
-- Atlanta is 5-11 in its last sixteen home games. Brewers lost last five games, allowing 42 runs.
-- Astros lost five of their last seven home games. Mets are 4-7 in their last eleven road series openers.
-- Padres lost four of their last five home games. Giants lost five of last six games, haven't scored in 23 innings.

-- Bronx lost four of its last five games.
-- Indians lost six of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last six games. Oakland is 2-12 in its last fourteen games.
-- Blue Jays lost three of their last four games.
-- Mariners lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five games.

Totals
-- Last five Cub games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Colorado's last eleven games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Cincinnati games.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Atlanta home games.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Astro games.
-- Over is 7-2 in Phillies' last nine games.
-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen San Diego games.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Dodgers' last ten games.

-- Over is 6-2 in Angels' last eight games.
-- Three of last four Boston games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Detroit games.
-- Eight of last nine Texas games went over the total.
-- Over is 12-2-1 in last fifteen White Sox games.
-- Over is 15-7-1 in last twenty-three Cleveland games.
-- Over is 18-5-1 in Orioles' last 24 road games.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


We will update when projected scores are available.

Friday, August 1

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Tips and Trends
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Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox [NESN | 7:05 PM ET]

A's: Justin Duchscherer is still looking for his first win since the All-Star break, going 0-2 in two starts since a 10-5 mark in the first half. Duchscherer has been hit hard in those two starts, surrendering 10 runs and 15 hits in 13 innings of work while walking five and striking out 10. He is also 3-5 in eight road starts despite an impressive 2.54 ERA. On the positive side, Duchscherer is 2-0 lifetime vs. Boston with a 1.91 ERA.

A's are 1-10 in their last 11 games on grass.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Oakland's last 10 road games.

Key Injuries - 1B Daric Barton (.224; neck) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Red Sox (-145, O/U 8.5): Tim Wakefield will try to break a personal two-game skid and earn just his second victory in five starts. Wakefield has also struggled since the All-Star break, giving up 14 hits and 10 runs in 12.1 innings over two starts - both losses. He has pitched better at home though, going 5-3 in nine starts at Fenway Park with a solid 3.68 ERA. He is 9-6 during his career against the A's with a 4.32 ERA.

Red Sox are 44-17 in their last 61 home games.
Red Sox are 17-7 in the last 24 meetings at Boston.

Key Injuries - SS Julio Lugo (.268; quad) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees [YES | 7:05 ET]

Angels (-120, O/U 10): Like many All-Star pitchers, LA's Ervin Santana is having trouble duplicating the same success he enjoyed in the first half of the season. Santana has dropped both of his starts since the break, allowing nine runs and 14 hits in 12 innings during a pair of 5-2 losses. He remains 8-2 in 13 road starts with a 3.77 ERA despite giving up five runs last time out at Baltimore. Santana is also 4-1 lifetime against the Yankees even though he has a bloated 6.15 ERA in those games.

Angels are 14-3 in their last 17 games as an underdog.
Angels are 21-8 in their last 29 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Yankees: Sidney Ponson finally saw his poor pitching catch up to him last time out at Boston as he surrendered seven runs and 10 hits to the Red Sox in four innings of an eventual 9-2 loss. The opposition is hitting .307 against him this season, including a .325 clip at home, where he is 3-0 in nine starts with a 4.91 ERA. The Yankees had won his previous four starts thanks to great run support, outscoring opponents by a 41-12 margin. Ponson is 7-2 lifetime vs. LA with a 4.67 ERA.

Yankees are 11-3 in their last 14 home games.
The OVER is 6-0 in New York's last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - C Jorge Posada (.268; shoulder) is OUT for the season.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals [8:15 PM ET]

Phillies (-135, O/U 8): Ace Cole Hamels is will be going for his first victory in five starts following a loss and three consecutive no-decisions. Hamels has pitched very well in his last five starts overall, allowing two runs or less four times during that stretch. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies have scored four runs or less in three of those games. Hamels is 4-1 during his career against the Cardinals with a 3.53 ERA.

Phillies are 21-8 in their last 29 Friday games.
Phillies are 12-5 in Hamels' last 17 starts overall.

Key Injuries - 3B Pedro Feliz (.256 back) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Cardinals: Kyle Lohse is coming off his worst start since May 8, surrendering seven runs and 11 hits - including three homers - in five innings of a 9-1 loss at New York on Sunday. St. Louis has now lost two straight with Lohse on the hill after going 11-1 in his previous 12 outings. However, he is a near-perfect 6-1 in 13 home starts with a 2.79 ERA and owns a 1-1 mark and stellar 1.65 ERA lifetime vs. Philly.

Cardinals are 11-3 in Lohse's last 14 starts overall.
Cardinals are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings at St. Louis.

Key Injuries - OF Skip Schumaker (.302; hamstring) is day-to-day.
OF Chris Duncan (.248; neck) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Streaking Pitchers

MLB

Friday, August 1

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Streaking Starting Pitchers
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Friday’s streaking and slumping pitchers

Streaking

Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres (8-6, 2.67 ERA)

Under bettors can tell you how much they love Peavy lately. His last five starts have all fallen under the number and it's been thanks to some fine pitching.

The Padres ace has only surrendered 12 earned runs in his last seven games, while he went at least six innings in each performance. What's even better news is that he only gave up three earned runs in three strong starts against the Giants last year, all wins for the Padres.

He faces the Giants' Tim Lincecum on Friday, so you can expect a total that's lower than dirt for this game.



Slumping

Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers (5-7, 5.04 ERA)

Suppan has been stinking out the joint lately and some timely hitting has prevented his record from taking a bigger dive than just two games below .500.

The right-hander has served up six meat balls in his last four starts and his ERA has jumped to 9.56 over his last three. You won't be surprised to see that five of his last seven games have played over the total and his teammates know they're going to have to score some runs to get the win when he's standing on the bump.

Brandon Backe, Houston Astros (6-10, 4.73 ERA)

You have to feel a little sorry for Backe these days. He's pitching his heart out and has nothing to show for it but a 1-4 team record over his past five games.

Backe's ERA is just 2.84 over his past three outings and he's held the opposition scoreless in two of his past four starts, though he only lasted three innings in one of them.

Houston knows it owes this righty a win and it might come against a rusty Pedro Martinez, who makes his return to the Mets on Friday following an absence from the lineup since July 12.

Bettors might want to know the under has cashed in Backe's only three starts against the Mets.

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