Saturday Trends and Indexes 07/19

[Udog]

MLB


Saturday, July 19

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Database Trends
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Washington - Atlanta: UNDER 8.0 -110

The Braves send Jair Jurrjens to the mound this evening vs. the Nats who are mired in a 2-8 SU record in their last 10 outings. Despite a valid effort last night and losing 7-6 to the Braves who are 31-18 SU at home this season, they will counter today with John Lannan. The Nats are 5-14 SU when Lannan gets the nod, while the Braves are 12-6 with Jurrjens toeing the rubber, with the O/U being 6-12-0 favoring the UNDER.

My recommendation this evening is to bet the Nationals vs. Braves game UNDER 8.0 -110. In fact, when the Washington Nationals are a +160 to +180 Road Underdog, vs. an NL Conference opponent, during a night game, coming off a Road loss and that game went OVER the total, the Nats have seen the UNDER go to 9-1-1 since '96 and that's going back to when the Nats were in their Expos days. Here's a flashback for you, the first time this scenario happened in 1997, John Smoltz was facing Carlos Perez and that game finished 2-1 for the Braves going UNDER the 7.5 posted total.

Another angle supporting this selection this evening is when you have a Road team like the Nats, playing a conference foe, before a division game, scored 6 or less runs FOR in their last game and they are coming off a Road loss as an Underdog; the UNDER is 22-12-1 for the Road Team in this position this season. Again, this betting system is backing up our UNDER selection tonight.

As always, "use past mistakes for current profits!"


Baseball Streakers

Who's Hot: Los Angeles Angels 3 SU Wins, Atlanta 3 SU Wins Houston 3 SU Wins, St Louis 3 SU Wins.

Who's Not: San Diego 4 SU Losses, Oakland 3 SU Losses, Washington 3 SU Losses, Pittsburgh 3 SU Losses.

O/U Streaks: Colorado 5 Under, Arizona 5 Over, Chicago White Sox 3 Over, Los Angeles Dodgers 3 Over, Oakland 3 Under.

Today's ATS Stats and Trends

San Diego vs. St. Louis: When ST LOUIS team Played as Home team as a Favorite - After a conference game - 3rd game of a series - Coming off a 3 game winning streak - Coming off a Home win; The Cards are 7-3 SU in this role.

Milwaukee vs. San Francisco: When MILWAUKEE team played as a Road team - After a conference game - Before a non division game - Allowed 1 runs AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Road win as a Favorite; The UNDER is 11-2-1 for the Brewers in this spot.

Chicago Cubs vs. Houston: When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Underdog - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - During the month of July; The Astros are 1-10 SU in this role.

Philadelphia vs. Florida: When FLORIDA team Played as home team as a Underdog - During a day game - 2nd game of a series; The OVER is 9-2-0 for the Marlins in this spot.

Washington vs. Atlanta: When ATLANTA team played as home team as a Favorite - Playing on Saturday - Vs. Left handed pitchers; The Braves are 18-3 SU in this position since ?97.

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati: When NY METS team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Coming off vs. National League opponent - Before a conference game - Coming off a 1 game loss - Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series; The Mets are 18-2 SU in this position.

Pittsburgh vs. Colorado: When COLORADO team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite - Total is between 10.5 to 11.0 - Vs Non Division Opponent; The OVER is 8-2-0 for the Rockies in this spot.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona: When ARIZONA team Played as home team as a Favorite - Total is 7.5 - During the month of July; The UNDER is 10-2-0 for the Dbacks in this role.

Oakland vs. New York Yankees: When OAKLAND team played as a 160 to 180 road Underdog - During a day game - Vs Non Division Opponent; The UNDER is 12-2-1 for the A?s in this situation since ?97.

Cleveland vs. Seattle: When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 2 years - After a non division game - Playing on Saturday - Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher - Scored 8 or less runs FOR in their last game - Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game; The Home Fave is 12-5 SU in this situation the L2Y.

Boston vs. Los Angeles Angels: When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a home team - Last 2 years - Total is 7.5; The Angels are 9-2 SU in this role L2Y.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay: When TAMPA BAY team played as a home team - Total is 7.5 - Total is between 7.5 to 8.0; The OVER is 9-2-0 for the Rays in this spot.

Detroit vs. Baltimore: When BALTIMORE team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - During the 2008 season - Vs Non Division Opponent; The Orioles are 9-1 SU in this spot this season.

Kansas City vs. Chicago White Sox: When KANSAS CITY team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - After a division game - Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog; The UNDER is 9-1-0 for the Royals in this position since '97.

Texas vs. Minnesota: When TEXAS team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - 2nd game of a series - During the month of July; The Rangers are 2-12 SU in this spot since 1997.

[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


Saturday, July 19


Hot Pitchers
-- Milwaukee is 8-3 on road when Sheets starts.
-- Zambrano is 2-0, 0.43 in his last two starts.
-- Olsen has 3.00 RA in his last three home starts. Phillies won last eight Kendrick road starts.
-- Braves are 8-1 at home when Jurrjens starts. Lannan has 2.25 RA in his last two starts; Nationals lost his last four on road.
-- Reds won last three Fogg starts, scoring 18 runs. Perez is 1-0, 0.80 in his last three starts.
-- Haren is 2-1, 1.80 in his last five starts. Billingsley is 5-1, 3.03 in his last six starts.

-- Beckett is 3-1, 3.27 in his last five starts. Angels are 7-2 when Saunders starts at home.
-- Halladay is 3-0, 0.72 in his last three starts. Garza is 5-1, 2.02 in his last seven home starts.
-- Baltimore is 5-2 at home when Cabrera starts.
-- White Sox won Floyd's last six home starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Wellemeyer is 0-2, 7.16 in his last three starts. Wolf is 1-5, 8.28 in his last six starts.
-- Sanchez is 0-1, 6.00 in his last two starts.
-- Rodriguez has 6.89 RA in his last three starts.
-- de la Rosa is 1-2, 9.82 in his last four starts. Herrera allowed six runs in 4.1 IP in his only start.

-- Chamberlain is 0-1, 4.32 in his last three starts. Home team is 11-0 in Gallagher's starts this season.
-- Cleveland is 0-5 on the road when Sowers starts. Seattle lost five of Washburn's seven home starts.
-- Robertson is 0-2, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Meche is 0-1, 5.50 in his last three starts.
-- Hernandez is 1-2, 7.27 in his last three starts. Harrison has a 6.52 RA in his first two starts with Texas.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won ten of last eleven games. Reds are 8-4 in their last dozen home games.
-- Marlins won six of their last nine games. Phillies won five of their last six games.
-- Braves won last three games, scoring 18 runs.
-- Astros won four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals won three of last four games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last eight home games.
-- Brewers won three of last four road games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last seven road games.

-- Bronx won its last five home games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven games.
-- Twins won their last six games at the Metrodome. Rangers are 9-1 in game after their last ten losses.
-- White Sox are 12-2 in their last fourteen home games.
-- Angels won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Pirates lost eleven of their last fourteen road games.
-- Cubs are 4-10 in their last fourteen road games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Arizona lost three of its last four games.

-- Oakland lost seven of last ten road games.
-- Orioles lost eight of their last ten games. Tigers lost four of their last five games.
-- Rays lost seven of last eight games, but are 33-7 in their last 40 at home.
-- Royals lost six of last eight road games.
-- Red Sox lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Indians lost their last ten road games. Mariners are 3-6 in their last nine games.

Totals
-- Over is 6-3 in Cincinnati's last nine games.
-- Six of last eight Florida home games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-4 in Atlanta's last eleven games.
-- Under is 5-1 in last six games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Under is 6-3 in Cardinals' last nine games.
-- Four of last six games at Coors Field went over the total.
-- Under is 4-2 in Arizona's last six home games.
-- Six of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.

-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven games in the Bronx.
-- Over is 8-2 in last ten games at Camden Yards.
-- Four of last six Tampa home games went over total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Texas road games. .
-- Under is 5-2 in White Sox' last seven home games.
-- Five of last six Angel home games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1 in Cleveland's last seven road games.

Umpires
-- SD-StL-- Five of last six Dreckman games stayed under total.
-- Mil-SF-- Five of last six Layne games went over the total.
-- Cubs-Hst-- Under is 12-4 in last sixteen Emmel games.
-- Phil-Fla-- Last six Nelson games stayed under the total.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Last eight Meriwether games stayed under total.
-- NY-Cin-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Holbrook games.
-- Pitt-Colo-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Kulpa games.
-- LA-Az-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Danley games.

-- A's-NY-- Under is 5-0-2 in last seven Hoye games.
-- Clev-Sea-- Under is 9-2 in last eleven Foster games.
-- Bos-LA-- Underdog is 13-5 in last eighteen O'Nora games.
-- Tor-TB-- Favorite is 10-1 in last eleven Dimuro games.
-- Det-Blt-- Under is 8-2 in last ten Runge games.
-- KC-Chi-- Under is 11-3 in last fourteen Fletcher games.
-- Tex-Min-- Underdog is 6-2 in last eight Rapuano games.

[Udog]

WNBA
Long Sheet


Saturday, July 19


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INDIANA (10 - 11) at NEW YORK (12 - 9) - 7/19/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 59-87 ATS (-36.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in road games since 1997.
INDIANA is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in July games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1997.
NEW YORK is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) on Saturday games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 7-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 11) at SAN ANTONIO (16 - 7) - 7/19/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1997.
SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 6-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (13 - 9) at HOUSTON (10 - 12) - 7/19/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 225-170 ATS (+38.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 150-98 ATS (+42.2 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
HOUSTON is 116-80 ATS (+28.0 Units) in home games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) in July games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 162-112 ATS (+38.8 Units) in May, June, or July games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 141-107 ATS (+23.3 Units) after a division game since 1997.
HOUSTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-4 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 20) at PHOENIX (10 - 12) - 7/19/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in home games this season.
PHOENIX is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
PHOENIX is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
PHOENIX is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

WNBA


Saturday, July 19


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Trend Sheet
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7:30 PM INDIANA vs. NEW YORK
Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 8 games when playing at home against Indiana


8:00 PM MINNESOTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
San Antonio is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota


8:30 PM LOS ANGELES vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Los Angeles is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home


10:00 PM ATLANTA vs. PHOENIX
Atlanta is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games
Atlanta is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Phoenix is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

[Kaptain]

07/19/08
12:40 PM Injuries
MLB
Mariners SP Erik Bedard (6-4; back) will reportedly not be able to pitch again until August.

07/19/08
12:38 PM News Alert
NBA
The Lakers have decided not to match a 4-year, $17 million offer made by the Warriors for F Ronny Turiaf.

07/19/08
10:52 AM Lineup Alert
MLB
A's SP Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA) has been scratched from his start today against the Yankees, so Sean Gallagher (4-4, 4.25) will take his place.

07/19/08
10:50 AM Lineup Alert
MLB
Mariners SP Jarrod Washburn (4-8, 4.83 ERA) has been scratched from his start today against the Indians, so Miguel Batista (4-10, 6.22) will take his place.

07/19/08
10:47 AM Lineup Alert
MLB
Angels SP Jon Garland (8-6; neck) has been scratched from his start today against the Red Sox, so Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.07 ERA) will take his place.

07/18/08
06:38 PM Injury Alert
MLB
The Cubs have placed RP Jon Lieber (2-3, 3.43 ERA) on the 15-day DL retroactive to July 11th with a right foot strain and recalled 1B Micah Hoffpauir (.400) from Triple-A Iowa to take his place on the roster.


07/18/08
06:36 PM Coach's Call
MLB
The Phillies have decided to put Adam Eaton (3-8, 5.71 ERA) in the bullpen to make room for newly acquired SP Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96).

07/18/08
06:33 PM Injury Alert
MLB
Marlins SP Andrew Miller (5-9, 5.63 ERA) has been placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to July 14th with right patella tendinitis.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Saturday

-- Final interleague stats showed that not only did AL clubs have a 149-103 edge over the NL, they outscored them by a 1,249-1,014 margin, almost a full run a game.

-- Ronny Turiaf is great energy guy, good signing for Golden State, as they try and make up for their offseason losses.

-- Oregon finally got wise and signed hoop coach Ernie Kent to an extension thru 2013. He's built a good program there.

-- David Duval was ranked 1,087th in world before this week.

-- Jack Nicklaus needs to stop sniping at younger players; he comes across as a bitter, envious old guy.

-- Does it ever get warm in England?

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[pm530]

Saturday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but...........

13) Arizona and the Dodgers are both 47-49, and tied for first place in NL West.

12) It would be great if sub-.500 teamss weren't allowed in the baseball playoffs; just let next best team in Wild Card race into playoffs instead. Who would be against this?

11) Carl Crawford singled to snap 0-for-26 skid, then got picked off first base. Not the best month for him.

10) CC Sabathia has turned into Steve Carlton as a Brewer; it is a good month to be his agent.

9) Greg Maddux' last win was May 10. Time to say goodbye.

8) David Ortiz has been crushing ball on his rehab assignment, so Boston is going to get stronger fairly soon.

7) Red Sox are now 0-6 when Buchholz starts on the road.

6) I hope A's manager Bob Geren has a contract that takes him into the new Fremont stadium, because A's management isn't trying to win this year, or next year. They have their eyes on a new ballpark, and selling seats/boxes there.

5) Mark Ellis is hitting just .181 at home, but is over .300 when he plays on foreign soil. Go figure.

4) I'd be curious to know why Hiroki Kuroda pitches so well at home, but is just awful on the road?

3) 10 of 30 starting pitchers Friday didn't finish the 5th inning. Only Sabathia and Bronson Arroyo got an out in 8th inning.

2) Home team is 13-0 in Indians' last thirteen games.

1) You watch John Daly shoot 49 on back nine Friday, and you wonder if he wouldn't be better off away from a golf course?

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