Sunday Trends and Indexes 07/13

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Sunday, July 13th

National League

Houston at Washington, 1:35 ET
Brandon Backe (R) vs. Odalis Perez (L)
Backe: 11-0 Under Away when the money line is +125 to -125
Perez: 8-0 Under in home games

Arizona at Philadelphia, 1:35 ET
Brandon Webb (R) vs. Cole Hamels (L)
Webb: 13-2 Under after giving up no earned runs last outing
Hamels: Phi 11-1 Under at home after allowing 10+ runs

St. Louis at Pittsburgh, 1:35 ET
Joel Piniero (R) vs. Ian Snell (R)
Piniero: StL 10-28 Away after allowing 12+ runs
Snell: 15-4 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -150

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 2:05 ET
Homer Bailey (R) vs. CC Sabathia (L)
Bailey: Cin 14-6 Over vs. lefties
Sabathia: Mil 1-4 at home vs. Cincinnati

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET WGN
Tim Lincecum (R) vs. Ryan Dempster (R)
Lincecum: SF 10-25 in day games
Dempster: 11-0 TSR in home games

Atlanta at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Jorge Campillo (R) vs. Randy Wolf (L)
Campillo: Atl 4-14 Away off a win
Wolf: 14-4 Under this season

Florida at LA Dodgers, 4:10 ET
Andrew Miller (L) vs. Chad Billingsley (R)
Miller: Fla 11-0 Over after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games
Billingsley: LAD 15-4 Over after BB losses by 2 runs or less

Colorado at NY Mets, 8:05 ET ESPN
Mark Redman (L) vs. Mike Pelfrey (R)
Redman: 12-3 Over in night games
Pelfrey: 1-8 TSR off BB team wins

American League

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 1:05 ET
Scott Kazmir (L) vs. Jeremy Sowers (L)
Kazmir: TB 14-4 revenging loss as road favorite
Sowers: Cle 8-18 in day games

Minnesota at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Nick Blackburn (R) vs. Justin Verlander (R)
Blackburn: Min 10-4 vs. Detroit
Verlander: Det 0-6 off BB home division losses

NY Yankees at Toronto, 1:05 ET
Andy Pettitte (L) vs. AJ Burnett (R)
Pettitte: Yankees 44-24 Under as a favorite
Burnett: 4-12 TSR in day games

Baltimore at Boston, 1:35 ET TBS
Daniel Cabrera (R) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Cabrera: Bal 0-13 on Sunday
Matsuzaka: Bos 22-5 as a home favorite of -150 or more

Seattle at Kansas City, 2:10 ET
Carlos Silva (R) vs. Kyle Davies (R)
Silva: Sea 19-44 Away with double revenge
Davies: 13-3 Over as favorite

Chicago White Sox at Texas, 3:05 ET
Jose Contreras (R) vs. Matt Harrison (L)
Contreras: White Sox 36-18 off a win
Harrison: Tex 27-17 Over off a loss

LA Angels at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Joe Saunders (L) vs. Justin Duchscherer (R)
Saunders: 13-3 TSR as an underdog
Duchscherer: Oak 31-44 after scoring 2 runs or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB


Sunday, July 13


Update
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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox [TBS | 1:30 PM ET]

Orioles: Daniel Cabrera takes a dismal career record against the Red Sox into Fenway Park for his 20th start of the season. Cabrera is just 2-9 lifetime vs. Boston with a 7.11 ERA though he has pitched better this season overall. He is 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 road starts this year though and has earned just one win in his last nine outings overall in seeing his ERA ballon from 3.48 to 4.40.

Orioles are 2-8 in Cabrera's last 10 starts vs. Boston.
The OVER is 16-5-1 in Baltimore's last 22 road games.

Key Injuries - 2B Alex Cintron (.275; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Red Sox (-230, O/U 9): Daisuke Matsuzaka has come on strong in his last three starts following a disastrous start upon his return from the DL back on June 21st against St. Louis (seven runs allowed in one inning). Since then, Dice-K has allowed only one run in 17.1 innings of work, walking 11 and striking out 14. He is 5-1 in eight starts at Fenway this season with a solid 3.43 ERA.

Red Sox are 42-12 in their last 54 home games.
Red Sox are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings at Boston.

Key Injuries - SS Julio Lugo (.268; quad) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6



San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs [WGN | 2:20 PM ET]

Giants: National League All-Star Tim Lincecum will look to rebound from his first road loss of the season when he visits Wrigley Field. Lincecum gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings of a 7-0 loss to the Mets last time out on Tuesday, but he remains 7-1 away from home with an impressive 2.23 ERA. He is 1-1 in three career starts against the Cubs with a 3.10 ERA and earned the win on July 3rd.

Giants are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings.
The OVER is 13-3-1 in San Francisco's last 17 Sunday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Cubs (-150, O/U 9.5): Fellow NL All-Star Ryan Dempster will try to complete a perfect first half of the season at home after leading his team to an 11-0 record there in 11 starts so far. Dempster was outstanding in his last start at Wrigley on Tuesday, allowing just one run and two hits in seven innings of a 7-3 victory. He has struggled a bit against the Giants during his career with a 2-6 mark and 4.34 ERA and walked away with a no-decision in a 6-5 victory at San Francisco on July 2nd after giving up two runs and five hits in six innings with two walks and seven strikeouts.

Cubs are 19-3 in their last 22 home games.
The OVER is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - Closer Kerry Wood (24 saves; finger) is OUT.
OF Alfonso Soriano (.283; hand) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4



Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics [4:05 PM ET]

Angels: American League All-Star Joe Saunders will be going for his lucky 13th win of the season for the second time after suffering a tough-luck 3-2 loss last time out at Texas on Tuesday. Saunders allowed three runs and six hits to the Rangers in eight innings of work, striking out five without issuing a walk. He is 6-3 on the road with a 2.23 ERA and owns a 4-1 lifetime mark vs. Oakland to go along with a 4.02 ERA.

Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 24-10-2 in LA's last 36 road games.

Key Injuries - 3B Chone Figgins (.275; personal) is day-to-day.
C Mike Napoli (.204; shoulder) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

A's (-180, O/U 87): Another All-Star vs. All-Star matchup takes place here in Oakland, and no pitcher in baseball has been as hot as Justin Duchscherer, who has allowed two runs or less in his last nine starts. Duchsherer is also coming off his best start of the season, notching a complete-game shutout of Seattle on Tuesday. He allowed only two hits and did not walk a batter while striking out four to improve to 7-1 at home and lower his ERA there to 1.23.

A's are 9-3 in their last 12 Sunday games.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Oakland's last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - OF Ryan Sweeney (.296; finger) is day-to-day.
SS Bobby Crosby (.260; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.
3B Eric Chavez (.247; shoulder) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)



Colorado Rockies at New York Mets [ESPN | 8:05 PM ET]

Rockies: Mark Redman is still searching for his first victory since April 16th, when he allowed two runs and three hits in five innings of a 10-2 win at San Diego. Redman is coming off a loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday in which he gave up four runs and six hits in five innings. He has not struck out more than two batters in any of his last five outings and is just 1-4 lifetime vs. New York with a 4.64 ERA.

Rockies are 14-37 in their last 51 road games.
Rockies are 5-21 in the last 26 meetings at New York.

Key Injuries - OF Ryan Spilborghs (.314; oblique) is on the 15-day DL.
1B Todd Helton (back;.266) is on the 15-day DL.
SS Troy Tulowitzki (hand; .166) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Mets (-165, O/U 9): Mike Pelfrey has been one of the main reasons New York has finally started to turn its season around. Pelfrey has led the Mets to wins in his last six starts, allowing one run or less in three of his last four trips to the mound. He is coming off his best start of the season last Tuesday against San Francisco, giving up just three hits in seven scoreless innings with no walks and five strikeouts. Despite a 3-4 mark in nine starts at Shea Stadium, he still has an outstanding 2.68 ERA there.

Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-1-1 in New York's last 10 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - 2B Damion Easley (.292; quad) is day-to-day.
OF Ryan Church (.307; post-concussion syndrome) is on the 15-day DL.
2B Luis Castillo (.265; hip) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

[pm530]

WNBA – Long Sheet

WNBA
Long Sheet

Note: If the long sheet is updated, we will re-post.

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Sunday, July 13
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CONNECTICUT (13 - 7) at WASHINGTON (7 - 12) - 7/13/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in May, June, or July games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 154-199 ATS (-64.9 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 92-125 ATS (-45.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 112-145 ATS (-47.5 Units) in May, June, or July games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 94-124 ATS (-42.4 Units) after a division game since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 43-66 ATS (-29.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-5 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (2 - 18) at CHICAGO (5 - 13) - 7/13/2008, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

-- Minnesota bounced back from being swept in Fenway by winning three straight one-run games against the Tigers.

-- Rays haven't bounced back from anything yet this week; they're 0-6, and lead Boston by just a half-game in AL East.

-- Lot of injuries Saturday, as HRamirez-Saito-PMartinez and Ankiel all left their games with injuries, and Kerry Wood is out of All-Star Game because of blister issues.

-- Defending champ San Jose SaberCats will face Bon Jovi's Philadelphia Soul in the Arena Bowl in two weeks.

-- As of 2:30am Sunday, there were 82 players left in World Series of Poker; Hellmuth and Matusow were still playing.

-- John Lackey allowed 15 hits in 5.2 IP Thursday; the Mets gave up thirteen hits in their last five games combined.

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[pm530]

Sunday's Den: We look at ACC football for the 2008 season:

Boston College-- Eagles won last eight bowls, longest streak in country, but they have to replace Matt Ryan and will use a freshman to carry ball most of time (their top three tailbacks in 2007 are gone). Defense has to carry the day early in season, until new guys get their feet wet. Jr LB Herzlich is only Eagle on ACC preseason all-star team. Year 2 of Jagodzinski era will be different than last year's 11-3 season, but how much worse?

Clemson-- Tigers last won ACC title in '91, year before Bobby Bowden's Seminoles joined the league; Tommy Bowden's team has ranked 23rd or lower in each of last four years, but 2008 is supposed to be better, even though there are four new starters on offensive line. Tigers and Tennessee are only teams with a 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver returning this year. With a senior QB, anything less than ACC title won't be good.

Duke-- David Cutcliffe had a 44-29 record at Ole Miss and won Cotton Bowl; he takes over Duke program that lost its last 25 ACC games, and has one I-A win the last three years. 19 of 24 starters return, but no one on the roster has played in winning conference game. Lewis is a talented QB; Duke will score more under Cutcliffe; they have experienced players, but experience has been in losing. The schedule is favorable for early wins.

Florida State-- Final rankings last three years: 35-32-35; 7-6 the last two seasons, FSU also will be missing six starters for parts of '08 season, due to academic issues from last year. Last year was first time since 1987 that no Seminole was taken on Day 1 of NFL Draft- their talent level is down. Weatherford is senior QB with 33 career starts, but isn't clear-cut choice as a starter. There are no junior or senior offensive linemen on this team.

Georgia Tech-- Paul Johnson won big at Navy, which ain't an easy thing to do; he also won two I-AA titles, so he can coach which is good, since Tech fumbled nine times in spring game. There is a lot of work to do. They only have four starters back on defense, so this will be a rebuilding year, since Tech's QB transferred to a school where he can pass more. Jackets have been to 11 straight bowl games-- doubtful it gets to twelve.

Maryland-- Terps are switching to West Coast offense after its third losing ACC season in last four (14-18); with nine starters back on offense, Maryland should score more, but they're not settled on who will start at QB. They also changed defenses, and will have six new starters there. Friedgen is 56-31 in seven years at Maryland, but program has plateaued, which is cause for the changes. Cal's visit in September will be interesting test.

Miami-- Hurricanes ranked 70th last year out of 119 schools in I-A; they have only four starters back on offense, six on other side of ball- they closed out the Orange Bowl with a 48-0 loss to Virginia. This year's QB, whoever he is, has never played in a college game. 'canes turned ball over 31 times LY, so they'll take heat off the new QB by trying to run ball more. Recruiting has been better, but it takes while for results to show on field.

North Carolina-- Heels have nine starters back on offense and eight on defense; they went 4-8 LY, losing four games by four points or less, so they figure to improve. With only 20 wins in last five seasons, experienced Heels figure to contend for bowl game. UNC has strong offensive line, talented, but still young players at QB/RB. Better recruiting means starters won't have to play as much on special teams, and should be better rested.

NC State-- Wolfpack has only nine returning starters back but after a 5-7 season, is that so bad? They had 22 turnovers in the first six games, then won four straight before running out of gas and missing a bowl by one win. They're unsure who their QB is, but the coach went 75-45 at Boston College and will win in Raleigh, maybe even this year, if his players are healthier in 2008. One thing: if O'Brien gets to a bowl game, he'll win it.

Virginia-- Cavaliers will miss Chris Long, now with the Rams; they also lost 23-game starting QB Sewell to academic issues, which is a potential disaster. They lost several players as well in offseason for unusual reasons, and their top recruiter, so a team that won five of its nine games by five or less points LY USC visits Charlottesville August 30, a tough test. Not only do they have to rebuild both lines, they need new kicker/punters.

Virginia Tech-- Hokies have 42 wins the last four years and finished LY ranked #9, despite losing Orange Bowl to Kansas. Tech has to replace seven starters on defense and also juggle QBs, but they have four starters back on OL. Hokies have just 10 scholarship seniors, so this young team has to grow as they go. Road games at East Carolina, Nebraska could get tricky for a young team. Beamer has his toughest coaching job in while.

Wake Forest-- Deacons have 20 wins the last two years, with rankings of 11-9th; how Wake kept Michigan or Alabama from hiring coach Grobe away remains a mystery. They finished 9-4 LY even after an 0-2 start, when they blew early 14-0 lead at BC Wake has a terrific QB in two-year starter Skinner; they have the best kicker in ACC and two all-ACC defensive starters, so the crafty Grobe figures to get Deacons into another bowl.

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