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Terrible day yesterday. I was a little concerned about playing the two sizeable favorites, but thought the numbers were in my favor. Also went to bed after Seattle scored 3 runs in the first inning to find they didn't score another run the rest of the game and lost 4-3. Fun.
Yesterday 1-4 -$514
Season 18-20 -$487
Pirates (-120) 120/100
Trends working in the Pirates favor here. Houston is 7-20 in their last 27 as a dog and Pittsburgh is 9-3 in their last 12 as favorite. The Pirates won all 3 of Snell's home starts vs Houston last year and they are 15-3 in his starts as a home favorite. Houston is 2-8 in Backe's road starts this season and he has a 5.43 ERA over those games as well as a 6.86 ERA in his last 7 starts overall. In Snell's last 4 home starts vs the NL, his ERA is 1.87.
Col/Mil over 9 (-115) 115/100
In the last 10 games Colorado has hit .324 vs LHP, averaging 8.5 runs per 9 innings and Milwaukee has hit .321 vs LHP averaging 8 runs. Redman has been brutal with a 10.43 ERA in his past 3 starts and the over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. I know Sabathia will probably be jacked up over his first start with Milwaukee and he has been pitching very well of late, but he does have a 9.82 ERA in his career vs the Rockies. I'll take a shot on the over here. Milwaukee may get there by themselves.
Cubs (-155) 93/60
Cubs -1.5 (+125) 60/75
Lots of nice stats here, although I see a lot of people on the Reds tonight. The Reds are 3-11 this season in the first game of a series on the road and the Cubs are 5-1 in the first game of a home stand this season. Harang is 1-6 on the road this season with a 5.20 ERA and the Reds have lost his last 3 starts versus the Cubs. The Cubs are a perfect 10-0 in Dempster's starts at home this season. The thing that is holding me back from making this a bigger play is that the Reds seem to play very well as a dog with Harang on the mound (17-4 over his last 21 starts as a dog). The Cubs are 13-2, though, in Dempster's last 15 as a favorite, though, so i'll still take my chances with the Cubs tonight.
Atl/LA under 7 (+100) 75/75
I'm going to continue to play the under trends with these teams until they start consistently scoring some runs.
CWS/KC over 9.5 (-110) 110/100
The over is 9-3 in the KC's last 12 home games and 6-2-2 in Contreras' last 10 starts vs the Royals. Contreras' last 3 starts have all gone over with an average of 14 runs being scored in those 3 games. Davies ERA is 11.57 over the past 3 games.
Phi/Oak ML Parlay (+125) 100/125
Going to play two very good pitchers in this parlay tonight. Hopefully Hamels will stay true to form and deliver against Sl Louis tonight. The Phillies have won all 4 of his starts versus the Cardinals in his career. The A's are 6-1 in Duchscherer's home starts this season and he has posted a 1.46 ERA at home. Silva has been brutal for Seattle as of late.
I'm not going to play them, because all the angles aren't there to make them plays, but I think the Mets and Yankees both win tonight. I think the Mets may have started to turn a corner here and the Yanks are worth a look any day as a home dog.
Yesterday 1-4 -$514
Season 18-20 -$487
Pirates (-120) 120/100
Trends working in the Pirates favor here. Houston is 7-20 in their last 27 as a dog and Pittsburgh is 9-3 in their last 12 as favorite. The Pirates won all 3 of Snell's home starts vs Houston last year and they are 15-3 in his starts as a home favorite. Houston is 2-8 in Backe's road starts this season and he has a 5.43 ERA over those games as well as a 6.86 ERA in his last 7 starts overall. In Snell's last 4 home starts vs the NL, his ERA is 1.87.
Col/Mil over 9 (-115) 115/100
In the last 10 games Colorado has hit .324 vs LHP, averaging 8.5 runs per 9 innings and Milwaukee has hit .321 vs LHP averaging 8 runs. Redman has been brutal with a 10.43 ERA in his past 3 starts and the over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. I know Sabathia will probably be jacked up over his first start with Milwaukee and he has been pitching very well of late, but he does have a 9.82 ERA in his career vs the Rockies. I'll take a shot on the over here. Milwaukee may get there by themselves.
Cubs (-155) 93/60
Cubs -1.5 (+125) 60/75
Lots of nice stats here, although I see a lot of people on the Reds tonight. The Reds are 3-11 this season in the first game of a series on the road and the Cubs are 5-1 in the first game of a home stand this season. Harang is 1-6 on the road this season with a 5.20 ERA and the Reds have lost his last 3 starts versus the Cubs. The Cubs are a perfect 10-0 in Dempster's starts at home this season. The thing that is holding me back from making this a bigger play is that the Reds seem to play very well as a dog with Harang on the mound (17-4 over his last 21 starts as a dog). The Cubs are 13-2, though, in Dempster's last 15 as a favorite, though, so i'll still take my chances with the Cubs tonight.
Atl/LA under 7 (+100) 75/75
I'm going to continue to play the under trends with these teams until they start consistently scoring some runs.
CWS/KC over 9.5 (-110) 110/100
The over is 9-3 in the KC's last 12 home games and 6-2-2 in Contreras' last 10 starts vs the Royals. Contreras' last 3 starts have all gone over with an average of 14 runs being scored in those 3 games. Davies ERA is 11.57 over the past 3 games.
Phi/Oak ML Parlay (+125) 100/125
Going to play two very good pitchers in this parlay tonight. Hopefully Hamels will stay true to form and deliver against Sl Louis tonight. The Phillies have won all 4 of his starts versus the Cardinals in his career. The A's are 6-1 in Duchscherer's home starts this season and he has posted a 1.46 ERA at home. Silva has been brutal for Seattle as of late.
I'm not going to play them, because all the angles aren't there to make them plays, but I think the Mets and Yankees both win tonight. I think the Mets may have started to turn a corner here and the Yanks are worth a look any day as a home dog.
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