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Attn Aplous:
aplous
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Originally Posted by aplous
GL Kap-
Question when you get some time.....Ive noticed you play some dogs +1.5...Ive never really done that in baseball, wondering if you could explain some of the method/capping that you do, in order to use that +1.5....Is it records in 1 run games?
Thx!
some that come into mind today are the following
Houston + 1 1/2
Pitts + 1 1/2
SD + 1 1/2
Boston + 1 1/2
I try to find teams that are Fav's -140/150, which means Dogs will be -140/150 or thereabouts, even with the + 1 1/2...
examples....
Atlanta -130/Hous +110/Hou + 1 1/2 -165
Milw -150/Pitt +130/Pitt + 1 1/2 -145
Az -150/SD +130/SD + 1 1/2 -140
Yanks -155/Bost +135/Bost + 1 1/2 -140
Some cappers when they feel a dog is gonna win, they play the dogs, If the Dog wins, this results in a "Good Investment"...I'm more into increasing my odds/percentages of winning, by starting out ahead 1 1/2 to 0....
In my case, all they have to do is stay close.....there's about 28-30 % of the MLB games that are decided by 1 run....I feel that increases my percentages a bit....
I also feel that if I can lay -140/150 for a favorite, why can't lay -140/150 with a Dog, and I'm getting a bonus of + 1 1/2...
This is only if you think the Dog with Listed Pitchers, who's hot, who's not, home/away records, etc, is gonna win or stay close....
I especially like the Dog + 1 1/2 when the Total is 8 or less....Oddsmakers figure on a lo scoring game, thus the + 1 1/2 looms a lil larger IMO...
The ones I would play today are
Pitts burgh + 1 1/2
Houston + 1 1/2
depends on where you cut your Vig betting lines at....-125/130/135/140/145/150/ etc....
The 3 wise men used a formula for RL plays, and they flat ass kicked some ass....sometimes the Vig gets higher, but I like the + 1 1/2 runs myself....
All the above is strictly my opinion, and I'm sure others disagree, but I'm not getting into any discussions about it, they always turn to shit, merely answering a members question....
Didn't play SD or Boston, cause I favor the D'Backs and Yanks today......but they look good on Paper....hope this answers your question, and I thank you for inquiring....
__________________
Of the 4 potentials, 3 of em covered.....yesterday there were 15 games, and 8 were decided by 1 run......which means the dog automaticly won with the 1 1/2.....Of the 8 winners, 2 dogs won outright, the + 1 1/2 wasn't needed......
Based on using the lo juice
Wash + 1 1/2 -120....Cinn was a -200 favorite....Cinn won 6-5
Based on pretty even odds, i e, ML -150 or + 1 1/2 -150
SD + 1 1/2 -140, vs Az -150.....Az won 3-2, thus SD covered
Boston + 1 1/2 -140 vs Yanks -155...Yanks won 5-4 thus Bost covered....
these are the kinds I look for....
Todays would be
KC + 1 1/2 -120 vs T BAY at -190
good Vig for having a dog + 1 1/2
Minn + 1 1/2 -130 vs Boston -175
ditto here
Texas + 1 1/2 -130 vs LA Angels -135
Pretty even odds to be getting + 1 1/2
Seattle + 1 1/2 -155 vs Oakland -155
ditto here.....
This is how I determine a team at + 1 1/2.....sometimes I just outright take the dog + 1 1/2 with hi juice, cause I like the 1 1/2 factor....just my opinion.....
theres other factors involved, but this should give you a hint....as to some general parameters involved...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by aplous
GL Kap-
Question when you get some time.....Ive noticed you play some dogs +1.5...Ive never really done that in baseball, wondering if you could explain some of the method/capping that you do, in order to use that +1.5....Is it records in 1 run games?
Thx!
some that come into mind today are the following
Houston + 1 1/2
Pitts + 1 1/2
SD + 1 1/2
Boston + 1 1/2
I try to find teams that are Fav's -140/150, which means Dogs will be -140/150 or thereabouts, even with the + 1 1/2...
examples....
Atlanta -130/Hous +110/Hou + 1 1/2 -165
Milw -150/Pitt +130/Pitt + 1 1/2 -145
Az -150/SD +130/SD + 1 1/2 -140
Yanks -155/Bost +135/Bost + 1 1/2 -140
Some cappers when they feel a dog is gonna win, they play the dogs, If the Dog wins, this results in a "Good Investment"...I'm more into increasing my odds/percentages of winning, by starting out ahead 1 1/2 to 0....
In my case, all they have to do is stay close.....there's about 28-30 % of the MLB games that are decided by 1 run....I feel that increases my percentages a bit....
I also feel that if I can lay -140/150 for a favorite, why can't lay -140/150 with a Dog, and I'm getting a bonus of + 1 1/2...
This is only if you think the Dog with Listed Pitchers, who's hot, who's not, home/away records, etc, is gonna win or stay close....
I especially like the Dog + 1 1/2 when the Total is 8 or less....Oddsmakers figure on a lo scoring game, thus the + 1 1/2 looms a lil larger IMO...
The ones I would play today are
Pitts burgh + 1 1/2
Houston + 1 1/2
depends on where you cut your Vig betting lines at....-125/130/135/140/145/150/ etc....
The 3 wise men used a formula for RL plays, and they flat ass kicked some ass....sometimes the Vig gets higher, but I like the + 1 1/2 runs myself....
All the above is strictly my opinion, and I'm sure others disagree, but I'm not getting into any discussions about it, they always turn to shit, merely answering a members question....
Didn't play SD or Boston, cause I favor the D'Backs and Yanks today......but they look good on Paper....hope this answers your question, and I thank you for inquiring....
__________________
Of the 4 potentials, 3 of em covered.....yesterday there were 15 games, and 8 were decided by 1 run......which means the dog automaticly won with the 1 1/2.....Of the 8 winners, 2 dogs won outright, the + 1 1/2 wasn't needed......
Based on using the lo juice
Wash + 1 1/2 -120....Cinn was a -200 favorite....Cinn won 6-5
Based on pretty even odds, i e, ML -150 or + 1 1/2 -150
SD + 1 1/2 -140, vs Az -150.....Az won 3-2, thus SD covered
Boston + 1 1/2 -140 vs Yanks -155...Yanks won 5-4 thus Bost covered....
these are the kinds I look for....
Todays would be
KC + 1 1/2 -120 vs T BAY at -190
good Vig for having a dog + 1 1/2
Minn + 1 1/2 -130 vs Boston -175
ditto here
Texas + 1 1/2 -130 vs LA Angels -135
Pretty even odds to be getting + 1 1/2
Seattle + 1 1/2 -155 vs Oakland -155
ditto here.....
This is how I determine a team at + 1 1/2.....sometimes I just outright take the dog + 1 1/2 with hi juice, cause I like the 1 1/2 factor....just my opinion.....
theres other factors involved, but this should give you a hint....as to some general parameters involved...
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