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I thought I caught a break with a pitching change in the Colorado game yesterday, but it looks like Florida switched back to their original starter, which makes my parlay a loser.
Yesterday 2-2 -$10
Season 17-16 +$27
Rays (-177) $168/$95
Rays -1.5 (+110) $95/$105
Going to continue to ride TB here. I don't think any of us ever thought we'd say that in our lifetimes. Garza is 5-1 at home this season with a 2.16 ERA and is starting to emerge as a quality starter for TB. His ERA is 1.64 over his past 3 starts. The Rays are a stout 24-2 in their last 26 games as favorites of -151 to -200. Meche has shown some decent form lately, but all against NL teams. KC has lost his last 6 starts vs AL teams. This is a 2 unit play for me, but I won't put a full 2 on the money line at -177. I'll play 2 units laying 1 run at -132.
Brewers (-129) $226/$175
Brewer fans (and probably players) are all happy and giddy this morning finding Sabathia at their doorsteps. Everything I see in this game favors the home team and i'm surprised the line is so low. I'm assuming it's due to 2 of Jiminez' last 3 starts being very good, but those were at home against SD and a struggling Mets team, at the time. Colorado is 6-26 in their last 32 road games. They are 4-13 in the first game of a series after a loss and are 0-9 in Jiminez' road starts this season and he complied an ERA of 6.96 in those starts. Milwaukee is 20-7 in their last 27 as favorites. They are 8-1 vs Colorado in the last 9 in Milwaukee and are 3-1 in McClung's home starts this season. I like Milwaukee here.
Atl/LA under 7.5 (+100) $75/$75
Very small play on the under here because the trends are so strong. The under is 30-10-1 in Atlanta's 41 road games this season and 21-5 in their last 26 as a road dog. The under is 11-3 in the Dodgers last 14 games overall. Kuroda has a 3.00 ERA at home this season and 6 of his last 7 starts have gone under. Campillo has a 1.00 ERA on the road this season, but he has shown inconsistency lately, which is why this is reduced to a small play for me.
Mariners (+144) $100/$144
Seattle has won 10 of the last 11 games in Oakland. They are 7-3 over their past 10 games and played very well against the Tigers this past weekend. Washburn is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts and has a 2.13 ERA in his last 4 road starts. I'll take some value here with Seattle, which has been hitting LHP very well as of late.
I looked at the Twins as a value play, but passed due to the stats and trends favoring Boston.
Yesterday 2-2 -$10
Season 17-16 +$27
Rays (-177) $168/$95
Rays -1.5 (+110) $95/$105
Going to continue to ride TB here. I don't think any of us ever thought we'd say that in our lifetimes. Garza is 5-1 at home this season with a 2.16 ERA and is starting to emerge as a quality starter for TB. His ERA is 1.64 over his past 3 starts. The Rays are a stout 24-2 in their last 26 games as favorites of -151 to -200. Meche has shown some decent form lately, but all against NL teams. KC has lost his last 6 starts vs AL teams. This is a 2 unit play for me, but I won't put a full 2 on the money line at -177. I'll play 2 units laying 1 run at -132.
Brewers (-129) $226/$175
Brewer fans (and probably players) are all happy and giddy this morning finding Sabathia at their doorsteps. Everything I see in this game favors the home team and i'm surprised the line is so low. I'm assuming it's due to 2 of Jiminez' last 3 starts being very good, but those were at home against SD and a struggling Mets team, at the time. Colorado is 6-26 in their last 32 road games. They are 4-13 in the first game of a series after a loss and are 0-9 in Jiminez' road starts this season and he complied an ERA of 6.96 in those starts. Milwaukee is 20-7 in their last 27 as favorites. They are 8-1 vs Colorado in the last 9 in Milwaukee and are 3-1 in McClung's home starts this season. I like Milwaukee here.
Atl/LA under 7.5 (+100) $75/$75
Very small play on the under here because the trends are so strong. The under is 30-10-1 in Atlanta's 41 road games this season and 21-5 in their last 26 as a road dog. The under is 11-3 in the Dodgers last 14 games overall. Kuroda has a 3.00 ERA at home this season and 6 of his last 7 starts have gone under. Campillo has a 1.00 ERA on the road this season, but he has shown inconsistency lately, which is why this is reduced to a small play for me.
Mariners (+144) $100/$144
Seattle has won 10 of the last 11 games in Oakland. They are 7-3 over their past 10 games and played very well against the Tigers this past weekend. Washburn is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts and has a 2.13 ERA in his last 4 road starts. I'll take some value here with Seattle, which has been hitting LHP very well as of late.
I looked at the Twins as a value play, but passed due to the stats and trends favoring Boston.
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