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Friday Trends and Indexes 07/04

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  • #16
    MLB


    Friday, July 4



    Update
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Tips and Trends
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees [YES | 1:05 PM ET]

    Red Sox (-130, O/U 9.5): Boston ace Josh Beckett is looking to rebound from a tough stretch in which he has earned just one win in four starts despite pitching fairly well. Beckett has allowed just two runs in each of his last two starts but has gone 0-1 because his teammates have backed him with just three runs. Run support has not been a problem for him against the Yankees lately though, as the Sox have scored 21 runs in his last three starts vs. New York. That has helped Beckett go 6-3 lifetime against them despite an inflated 5.87 ERA.

    Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
    The OVER is 9-1 in Beckett's last 10 Friday starts.

    Key Injuries - NONE

    PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)

    Yankees: Darrell Rasner has suffered losses in six of his last seven trips to the mound, but he has earned three of his four wins at home. He is 3-1 in four starts at Yankee Stadium and has pitched there just twice in his last seven outings, splitting a pair of decisions after allowing four runs in 13 innings with five walks and eight strikeouts. Rasner has never pitched against the Red Sox.

    Yankees are 1-6 in Rasner's last 7 starts.
    The UNDER is 7-2 in New York's last 9 home games.

    Key Injuries - OF Hideki Matsui (.323; knee) is on the 15-day DL.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 4



    Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants [4:05 PM ET]

    Dodgers: Derek Lowe has struggled away from home this season, earning just one road victory in nine starts. He is 1-4 on the road with a 4.62 ERA, with the Dodgers scoring just one run combined in his last two outings overall. Lowe earned a win in his last road start at Cincinnati on June 18th though, allowing just one run and three hits in 5.1 innings. He is 3-5 lifetime vs. San Francisco with a 3.38 ERA.

    Dodgers are 21-10 in the last 31 meetings.
    The UNDER is 10-1 in LA's last 11 games overall.

    Key Injuries - SS Nomar Garciaparra (.226; calf) is expected to return.
    OF Andruw Jones (.165; knee) is expected to return.
    OF Juan Pierre (.277; knee) is on the 15-day DL.
    2B Jeff Kent (.266; back) is day-to-day.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 3

    Giants (-115, O/U 7.5): Jonathan Sanchez has been outstanding for the most part over his last seven starts, winning six times while allowing two runs or less in five of those games. In fact, Sanchez has given up three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. He is 2-2 in eight home starts with a 2.90 ERA and has pitched there just twice since May 16th.

    Giants are 6-1 in Sanchez's last 7 starts overall.
    Giants are 6-17 in their last 23 home games.

    Key Injuries - NONE

    PROJECTED SCORE: 4



    Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals [WGN | 8:15 PM ET]

    Cubs (-130, O/U 8.5): Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano will make his first start since a right shoulder strain put him on the DL. His last start came June 18th at Tampa Bay, when he surrendered five runs and seven hits in 6.2 innings of a 5-4 loss. That marked Zambrano's second straight road loss, and he is just 4-3 away from home with a 4.08 ERA.

    Cubs are 8-0 in Zambrano's last 8 starts vs. St. Louis.
    Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.

    Key Injuries - OF Reed Johnson (.271; back) has returned.
    OF Alfonso Soriano (.283; broken hand) is on the 15-day DL.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

    Cardinals: Braden Looper will make his first home start since June 18th, when he allowed one run and five hits in seven innings of an eventual 3-2 loss to the Royals. The Cardinals have won each of his last two starts - both on the road - even though he lasted just 3.1 innings last time out at Kansas City. He is 4-3 at home with a 4.50 ERA.

    The OVER is 4-0-1 in St. Louis' last 5 games overall.
    The OVER is 6-2 in Looper's last 8 starts overall.

    Key Injuries - SS Cesar Izturis (.241; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 5



    Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels [9:05 PM ET]

    Blue Jays: Toronto's A.J. Burnett is coming off consecutive stellar starts in which he allowed only one run and eight hits in a combined 15 innings. The Blue Jays outscored Atlanta and Cincinnati 15-1 in those games, but they have lost his last three road starts. Burnett is 3-4 away from home with a 3.94 ERA , and he is 1-1 in three career starts against the Angels with a 3.43 ERA.

    Blue Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 road games.
    The UNDER is 7-3 in Burnett's last 10 starts overall.

    Key Injuries - OF Shannon Stewart (.240; ankle) is on the 15-day DL.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 3

    Angels (-130, O/U 7.5): Jered Weaver will try to mind the most mind-boggling start of his career behind him when he toes the rubber for LA. Weaver did not allow a hit in six innings last time out on Saturday against the Dodgers but was pulled down 1-0 after an error he made eventually allowed the only run of the game to score. He has given up one run in three of his last four starts and is 3-4 at home with a 3.73 ERA.

    The UNDER is 15-7-2 in LA's last 24 home games.
    The UNDER is 13-3-2 in LA's last 18 Friday games.

    Key Injuries - NONE

    PROJECTED SCORE: 4

    Comment


    • #17
      MLB
      Short Sheet



      Friday, July 4th

      National League

      Washington at Cincinnati, 1:15 ET
      Jason Bergmann (R) vs. Bronson Arroyo (R)
      Bergmann: Wash 15-32 off an Over
      Arroyo: 8-0 Over as a home favorite of -150 to -175

      Pittsburgh at Milwaukee, 2:05 ET
      Tom Gorzelanny (L) vs. Ben Sheets (R)
      Gorzelanny: Pit 2-14 Away off a win
      Sheets: 36-16 Under at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

      LA Dodgers at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
      Derek Lowe (R) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (L)
      Lowe: Dodgers 20-9 Under in day games
      Sanchez: 6-0 TSR vs. division opponents

      NY Mets at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
      Johan Santana (L) vs. Chad Durbin (R)
      Santana: 2-7 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175
      Durbin: Phi 15-9 as an underdog of +100 to +150

      Houston at Atlanta, 7:10 ET
      Brian Moehler (R) vs. Tim Hudson (R)
      Moehler: 1-4 TSR, 7.18 ERA vs. Atlanta
      Hudson: 11-0 Over in July

      Florida at Colorado, 8:05 ET
      Scott Olsen (L) vs. Greg Reynolds (R)
      Olsen: Fla 14-3 Over after a loss by 2 runs or less
      Reynolds: Col 12-24 off an Over

      Chicago Cubs at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
      Carlos Zambrano (R) vs. Braden Looper (R)
      Zambrano: 17-5 TSR Away vs. division
      Looper: 22-10 Over in night games

      San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 ET
      Cha Seung Baek (R) vs. Dan Haren (R)
      Baek: 8-2 TSR in road games
      Haren: 3-0 TSR, 1.42 ERA vs. San Diego

      American League

      Boston at NY Yankees, 1:05 ET
      Josh Beckett (R) vs. Darrell Rasner (R)
      Beckett: Bos 42-19 after a win by 6+ runs
      Rasner: Yankees 48-19 Under revenging a shutout loss

      Detroit at Seattle, 4:10 ET
      Kenny Rogers (L) vs. Erik Bedard (L)
      Rogers: Det 16-5 vs. lefties
      Bedard: Sea 1-6 vs. Detroit

      Texas at Baltimore, 4:35 ET
      Vicente Padilla (R) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (R)
      Padilla: 6-1 TSR as road underdog
      Guthrie: Bal 23-45 in day games

      Kansas City at Tampa Bay, 5:10 ET
      Brian Bannister (R) vs. Edwin Jackson (R)
      Bannister: KC 28-8 Under as a road underdog of +125 to +150
      Jackson: TB 15-1 as a favorite of -150 or more

      Oakland at Chicago White Sox, 7:05 ET
      Joe Blanton (R) vs. Mark Buehrle (L)
      Blanton: 2-10 TSR in night games
      Buehrle: White Sox 29-13 when favored

      Cleveland at Minnesota, 7:10 ET
      Paul Byrd (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
      Byrd: Cle 4-17 after a loss by 2 runs or less
      Hernandez: Min 8-1 after a day off

      Toronto at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
      AJ Burnett (R) vs. Jered Weaver (R)
      Burnett: 15-5 Under off a loss
      Weaver: Angels 1-7 at home off BB wins

      ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

      Comment


      • #18
        MLB
        Write-Up

        Early Games



        Friday, July 4

        Hot Pitchers
        -- Bergmann has 1.29 RA in his last four starts. Reds are 3-1 in last four Arroyo home starts (2-1, 2.49).
        -- Sheets is 4-1, 2.70 in his last six starts.

        -- Beckett is 1-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.

        Cold Pitchers
        -- Gorzelanny has 6.03 RA in his last seven starts.

        -- Rasner is 1-6, 5.68 in his last seven starts.

        Hot Teams
        -- Brewers won six of last seven home games.
        -- Dodgers won six of their last seven road games.
        -- Phillies won four of their last five games.
        -- Cardinals won four of their last six games.

        -- Detroit won 19 of its last 25 games. Mariners are 7-3 in their last ten games.
        -- Orioles won eight of their last eleven games. Royals are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
        -- White Sox are 23-5 in their last 28 home games.
        --

        Cold Teams
        -- Reds lost seven of last nine home games. Nationals lost six of their last seven road games.
        -- Pirates lost six of their last nine road games.
        -- Giants lost eight of last twelve home games.
        -- Mets are 8-8 since they fired Willie Randolph.
        -- Braves lost nine of last twelve home games. Astros are 6-12 in their last eighteen games.
        -- Colorado lost eight of its last eleven games. Florida is 6-13 in its last thirteen road games.
        -- Cubs lost eight of their last ten road games.
        -- Arizona lost six of its last nine games.

        -- Bronx lost six of last eight home games. Red Sox are 9-18 in their last 27 road games, lost five of last six games overall.

        Totals
        -- Over is 7-3 in Arroyo's last ten starts.
        -- Over is 7-3 in last ten games at Miller Park.
        -- 10 of last 11 Dodger games stayed under the total.
        --
        --
        --
        -- Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.
        --

        -- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Bronx home games, 8-2-1 in last 11 Boston games.
        --
        -- Over is 11-4 in Orioles' last fifteen games.
        --
        -- Over is 7-3 in White Sox' last ten home games.
        --
        --

        Comment


        • #19
          MLB
          Write-Up


          Update


          Friday, July 4

          Hot Pitchers
          -- Bergmann has 1.29 RA in his last four starts. Reds are 3-1 in last four Arroyo home starts (2-1, 2.49).
          -- Sheets is 4-1, 2.70 in his last six starts.
          -- Lowe has 2.60 RA in his last eight starts. Giants won seven of last eight Sanchez starts.
          -- Moehler is 1-0, 1.47 in his last three starts. Hudson is 2-0, 1.19 in his last three home starts.
          -- Looper is 2-0, 2.81 in his last four starts.
          -- Haren is 3-0, 1.54 in his last six starts.

          -- Beckett is 1-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.
          -- Rogers is 2-1, 2.85 in his last seven starts. Bedard is 1-0, 1.83 in his last four starts.
          -- Guthrie has a 2.22 RA in his last four home starts. Rangers are 9-1 in Padilla road starts, winning his last six on foreign soil.
          -- Buehrle is 4-0, 1.38 in his last five starts.
          -- Minnesota is 8-2 in Hernandez home starts.
          -- Burnett is 2-0, 0.60 in his last two starts.

          Cold Pitchers
          -- Gorzelanny has 6.03 RA in his last seven starts.
          -- Mets lost last five Santana starts (0-4, 4.22), scoring 10 runs. Happ allowed five runs in four IP in his only 2007 start. He was 5-6, 3.54 in 17 AAA starts this season.
          -- Reynolds is 1-3, 6.55 in his last four starts. Marlins lost last three Olsen road starts (0-1, 7.05).
          -- Zambrano comes off DL to start; he was 0-2, 6.20 in his last three starts.
          -- Baek is 0-2, 6.38 in his last three starts.

          -- Rasner is 1-6, 5.68 in his last seven starts.
          -- Royals lost five of last six Bannister road starts. Jackson is
          2-3, 5.75 in his last seven starts.
          -- Blanton is 1-5, 7.75 in his last six starts.
          -- Cleveland lost eight of Byrd's nine road starts.
          -- Weaver is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three home starts.

          Hot Teams
          -- Brewers won six of last seven home games.
          -- Dodgers won six of their last seven road games.
          -- Phillies won four of their last five games.
          -- Cardinals won four of their last six games.

          -- Detroit won 19 of its last 25 games. Mariners are 7-3 in their last ten games.
          -- Rays won eight of last nine games. Royals are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
          -- Orioles won eight of their last eleven games. Rangers are 3-1 in their last four games.
          -- White Sox are 23-5 in their last 28 home games.
          -- Twins won 15 of their last 18 games.
          -- Angels won three of their last four games.

          Cold Teams
          -- Reds lost seven of last nine home games. Nationals lost six of their last seven road games.
          -- Pirates lost six of their last nine road games.
          -- Giants lost eight of last twelve home games.
          -- Mets are 8-8 since they fired Willie Randolph.
          -- Braves lost nine of last twelve home games. Astros are 6-12 in their last eighteen games.
          -- Colorado lost eight of its last eleven games. Florida is 6-13 in its last thirteen road games.
          -- Cubs lost eight of their last ten road games.
          -- Arizona lost six of its last nine games. San Diego is 1-10 in its last eleven games, scoring one run in last two.

          -- Bronx lost six of last eight home games. Red Sox are 9-18 in their last 27 road games, lost five of last six games overall.
          -- A's are 3-5 in second game of road series if they won opener.
          -- Indians lost last five games, allowing 32 runs.
          -- Blue Jays are 3-11 in their last fourteen games.

          Totals
          -- Over is 7-3 in Arroyo's last ten starts.
          -- Over is 7-3 in last ten games at Miller Park.
          -- 10 of last 11 Dodger games stayed under the total.
          -- Four of Mets' last five road games went over the total.
          -- Under is 6-3 in Atlanta's last nine games.
          -- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.
          -- Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.
          -- Over is 6-3 in last nine Arizona games.

          -- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Bronx home games, 8-2-1 in last 11 Boston games.
          -- Three of last four Bedard starts stayed under the total.
          -- Over is 11-4 in Orioles' last fifteen games.
          -- Four of Royals' last five games went over the total.
          -- Over is 7-3 in White Sox' last ten home games.
          -- Under is 7-3 in last ten Cleveland games.
          -- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Burnett starts.

          Comment

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