Thursday Trends and Indexes 07/03

[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


Thursday, July 3

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LA DODGERS (40 - 44) at HOUSTON (40 - 45) - 2:05 PM
CHAD BILLINGSLEY (R) vs. BRANDON BACKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 40-44 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 40-44 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BACKE is 26-7 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BACKE is 26-7 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 112-75 (+25.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-2 (+3.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)

CHAD BILLINGSLEY vs. HOUSTON since 1997
BILLINGSLEY is 1-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.74 and a WHIP of 1.368.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

BRANDON BACKE vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
BACKE is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

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MILWAUKEE (46 - 38) at ARIZONA (42 - 43) - 3:40 PM
MANNY PARRA (L) vs. BRANDON WEBB (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 22-29 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 53-74 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 25-47 (-21.3 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 50-71 (-20.2 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 36-54 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 22-37 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 25-38 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 135-116 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 42-43 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 12-25 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-1 (+4.2 Units) against ARIZONA this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

MANNY PARRA vs. ARIZONA since 1997
PARRA is 1-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

BRANDON WEBB vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
WEBB is 2-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.364.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-5. (-3.4 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (51 - 34) at SAN FRANCISCO (37 - 48) - 7:05 PM
SEAN GALLAGHER (R) vs. TIM LINCECUM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 435-474 (-118.2 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 457-439 (-97.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 639-525 (+87.2 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-34 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 49-30 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 108-139 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-26 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-26 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-19 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 25-37 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 56-85 (-23.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

SEAN GALLAGHER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.

TIM LINCECUM vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LINCECUM is 0-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.51 and a WHIP of 0.907.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

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WASHINGTON (34 - 52) at CINCINNATI (39 - 47) - 7:10 PM
JOHN LANNAN (L) vs. JOHNNY CUETO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 32-33 (+16.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 52-45 (+20.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-9 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 78-62 (+39.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 59-76 (-20.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-23 (-14.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CINCINNATI is 111-137 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 110-135 (-27.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JOHN LANNAN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LANNAN is 1-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.235.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
No recent starts.

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PHILADELPHIA (46 - 39) at ATLANTA (40 - 45) - 7:10 PM
COLE HAMELS (L) vs. JAIR JURRJENS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 77-38 (+31.6 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
JURRJENS is 17-6 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JURRJENS is 8-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
JURRJENS is 8-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
JURRJENS is 13-3 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 98-74 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 40-45 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 39-43 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ATLANTA is 25-31 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 61-72 (-22.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 (+6.6 Units) against ATLANTA this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.4 Units)

COLE HAMELS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
HAMELS is 4-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.5 units)

JAIR JURRJENS vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
No recent starts.

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FLORIDA (44 - 40) at COLORADO (34 - 51) - 8:05 PM
ANDREW MILLER (L) vs. JEFF FRANCIS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 71-58 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 74-60 (+26.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 42-21 (+26.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 94-89 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 44-40 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
FLORIDA is 34-21 (+18.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
FLORIDA is 14-9 (+9.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
FLORIDA is 43-38 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
FLORIDA is 33-31 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
COLORADO is 33-51 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 13-24 (-13.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
COLORADO is 33-51 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ANDREW MILLER vs. COLORADO since 1997
No recent starts.

JEFF FRANCIS vs. FLORIDA since 1997
FRANCIS is 1-0 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

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NY METS (41 - 43) at ST LOUIS (49 - 37) - 8:15 PM
MIKE PELFREY (R) vs. MITCHELL BOGGS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 41-43 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 41-43 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 26-29 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY METS are 26-33 (-13.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PELFREY is 5-11 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 49-37 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 34-23 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 49-37 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 52-28 (+21.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-1 (+0.7 Units) against NY METS this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

MIKE PELFREY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

MITCHELL BOGGS vs. NY METS since 1997
No recent starts.

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BOSTON (50 - 37) at NY YANKEES (45 - 40) - 7:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. ANDY PETTITTE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 8-15 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
BOSTON is 4-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 18-26 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BOSTON is 4-13 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 21-6 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 49-25 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 13-4 (+9.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
LESTER is 21-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 19-7 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 140-111 (-25.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 23-26 (-17.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 54-48 (-20.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 123-97 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 13-16 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-2 (+0.9 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

JON LESTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
LESTER is 0-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 17.17 and a WHIP of 2.997.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

ANDY PETTITTE vs. BOSTON since 1997
PETTITTE is 16-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.388.
His team's record is 18-8 (+10.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-12. (+0.7 units)

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KANSAS CITY (38 - 47) at BALTIMORE (43 - 40) - 7:05 PM
KYLE DAVIES (R) vs. GARRETT OLSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 39-71 (-21.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-30 (-11.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 43-40 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 24-13 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 38-33 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 35-21 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 34-26 (+13.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 14-6 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 97-134 (+19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 5-2 (+3.5 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

KYLE DAVIES vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
DAVIES is 1-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 7.50 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

GARRETT OLSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
OLSON is 1-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.689.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

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OAKLAND (45 - 39) at CHI WHITE SOX (49 - 35) - 8:11 PM
JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER (R) vs. JAVIER VAZQUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-20 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 11-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 20-9 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 46-25 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 18-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 33-16 (+15.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 15-5 (+10.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 428-432 (+38.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
CHI WHITE SOX are 49-35 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 20-12 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 30-11 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
VAZQUEZ is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-1 (+0.2 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.

JAVIER VAZQUEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VAZQUEZ is 1-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-5. (-5.4 units)

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DETROIT (42 - 42) at SEATTLE (33 - 51) - 10:10 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. CARLOS SILVA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-37 (-17.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
VERLANDER is 5-12 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 5-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 63-55 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-25 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SEATTLE is 29-49 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SEATTLE is 23-36 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SEATTLE is 25-38 (-14.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SEATTLE is 33-51 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-1 (+3.9 Units) against SEATTLE this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.1 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. SEATTLE since 1997
VERLANDER is 5-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.90 and a WHIP of 1.165.
His team's record is 5-1 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.2 units)

CARLOS SILVA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SILVA is 5-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 5.85 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 6-7 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-1.1 units)

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Streaking Pitchers

MLB

Thursday, July 3

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Streaking Starting Pitchers
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Thursday's streaking starting pitchers

A look at some of Thursday’s hottest and coldest pitchers.

Streaking

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco (9-1, 2.38 ERA)

When you think of the worst team in baseball, you don’t think of wins. But this guy hasn’t been hit with a loss since the Rockies dealt him one back on April 29.

Lincecum is 5-0 during that stretch, while the Giants earned a record of 6-4. He has developed a habit of piling high strikeouts, few walks and fewer home runs this season, though recently he had his two roughest starts of the season during some interleague action.

The righty responded with one of his best outings of the season in his most recent start against Oakland. He served up 11 K’s in seven innings in a 1-0 victory.


Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (8-3, 2.94)

How does a 0.00 ERA grab you over his past three starts? Better yet, what if we told you he was a home underdog today?

That’s the position Jurrjens finds himself in today against the Phillies. The 22-year-old Caracao native tossed at least six innings in each of his last three starts and the Braves are 8-2 in his last 10.

The reason he is an underdog today is he is one of those young pitchers that oddsmakers haven’t quite caught onto yet and the Braves have also lost seven of eight against the Phillies this season.



Slumping

Mark Redman, Colorado Rockies (2-3, 7.84 ERA)

The Rockies have lost Redman's last four appearances, which includes one relief appearance. He actually pitched 1 2/3 decent innings in that appearance, so he might find himself in the bullpen if he doesn't sharpen up with his starts soon.

Redman has given up a combined 15 earned runs in his last two starts against St. Louis and Los Angeles. He was chased out of the game in the third inning in his most recent start against the Cards after surrendering five earned runs and nine hits in just 2 2/3 innings.

Five of Redman's last six games have played over the total, so you might want to look at the 9 1/2 runs oddmakers have set as the number for today's game against the Marlins.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Thursday, July 3

Updated

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees [7:05 PM ET]

Red Sox: Jon Lester had been pitching marvelously until his last outing versus the Astros. Thanks to the Sox scoring 11 runs, Lester received a no-decision despite allowing six runs over five innings. Before that poor performance, Lester had allowed three runs or less in seven of his previous eight outings. Lester has been a different pitcher away from Fenway Park, going 2-2 with an ERA of 4.66.

Red Sox are 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog.
Red Sox are 20-6 in Lester's last 26 starts on grass.

Key Injuries - OF Coco Crisp (.270; suspension) is expected to return.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Yankees (-115, O/U 9.5): There aren't many pitchers in baseball hotter than Andy Pettitte at the moment. Pettitte has won four straight starts, allowing just three runs over 27 innings of work. As usual, control has been key to Pettitte's success. He has given out only 26 walks in 106.1 innings pitched this season. The veteran has actually been much better away from Yankee Stadium. He's just 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA at home this season.

The UNDER is 3-1 in Pettitte's last four starts.
The UNDER is 11-3 in Pettitte's last 14 home starts.
The UNDER is 6-2 in New York's last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5



Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants [7:05 PM ET]

Cubs: The Cubs have lost four straight games with Sean Gallagher on the mound. However, Gallagher has been a victim of poor run support in some of those outings. If you are backing the Cubs tonight, expect the bullpen to play a major role in the outcome. In his nine starts this year, Gallagher has only reached the seventh inning once. He's been awful on the road, going 0-3 with a 4.99 ERA in five starts.

The UNDER is 5-2 in Gallagher's last seven starts.
Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 road games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Chicago's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - 3B Aramis Ramirez (.289; personal) is expected to return.
OF Reed Johnson (.271; back) is on the 15-day DL.
OF Alfonso Soriano (.283; broken hand) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Giants (-135, O/U 7.5): After allowing nine runs in his prior two starts, Tim Lincecum was back to his dominant self in most recent outing against Oakland. Lincecum pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out 11. In seven starts at home this season, Lincecum has only factored in three decisions, going 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA. He's faced the Cubs twice in his short career, limiting them to a .146 batting average against him.

Giants are 5-17 in their last 22 home games.
Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's last 8 starts overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4



New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals [8:15 PM ET]

Mets: After getting hammered early in the year, Mike Pelfrey has rebounded to become one of the Mets most consistent pitchers. New York has won four straight games with Pelfrey on the hill, and he's allowed two runs or less six times over his last 10 starts. Even though Pelfrey has a winning record on the road (3-2) his ERA is an unimpressive 6.38, with opposing teams hitting a whopping .353 against him.

Two of Pelfrey's last three starts have gone way OVER the total.
Mets are 9-3 in their last 12 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 10-4-4 in New York's last 18 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Cardinals (-120, O/U 9): Young Mitchell Boggs has added another strong arm to the Cardinals starting rotation. Boggs has won three of his four starts this season, allowing 10 runs over 20.1 innings of work. However, he was hit hard in his one start at home versus the Phillies, allowing four runs in just 4.1 innings. He took a no-decision in that game, as the Cards outscored Philly, 7-6.

The OVER is 3-1 in Boggs' starts this season.
Cardinals are 17-7 in the last 24 meetings at St. Louis.
The OVER is 10-4-1 in St. Louis' last 15 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - SS Cesar Izturis (.241; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)



Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners [10:10 PM ET]

Tigers (-140, O/U 8.5): Justin Verlander continues to pitch well of late. In his last 10 outings, Verlander has allowed three runs or less eight times. He's pitching much better than his 4-9 record would indicate. While he's righted the ship recently, Verlander has been miserable on the road this season, going 1-5 with a 5.11 ERA in seven starts.

The UNDER is 6-3-1 in Verlander's last 10 starts.
Tigers are 23-5 in their last 28 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings at Seattle.

Key Injuries - 3B Miguel Cabrera (.280; hip) is day-to-day.
OF Magglio Ordonez (.307; oblique) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)

Mariners: The good news for Carlos Silva is that he finally got a win his last time out. The bad news is he lost seven consecutive starts prior to that win. Silva has allowed four runs or more six times in his last 10 starts. Three times over that span, he gave up seven runs. He's 2-4 at home this season with an ERA of 5.44. Silva hasn't gone past the fourth inning four times in his last 10 appearances.

Mariners are 3-10 in their last 13 home games.
Mariners are 1-7 in Silva's last 8 starts.

Key Injuries - RP J.J. Putz (7 saves; elbow) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, July 3rd

National League

LA Dodgers at Houston, 2:05 ET
Chad Billingsley (R) vs. Brandon Backe (R)
Billingsley: 2-9 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10
Backe: 11-3 TSR as home underdog

Milwaukee at Arizona, 3:40 ET
Manny Parra (L) vs. Brandon Webb (R)
Parra: 3-0 TSR, 1.42 ERA L3 starts
Webb: Ari 1-5 vs. Milwaukee

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco, 7:05 ET
Sean Gallagher (R) vs. Tim Lincecum (R)
Gallagher: Cubs 18-3 after a win by 2 runs or less
Lincecum: SF 15-7 Over vs. NL Central

Washington at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
John Lannan (L) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)
Lannan: Wash 32-19 Under vs. righties
Cueto: Cin 14-5 Under at home off an Over

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 7:10 ET
Cole Hamels (L) vs. Jair Jurrjens (R)
Hamels: Phi 5-0 at Atlanta
Jurrjens: Atl 21-2 Under as an underdog of +100 to +150

NY Mets at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Mike Pelfrey (R) vs. Mitchell Boggs (R)
Pelfrey: 9-16 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10
Boggs: Stl 34-23 against right-handed starters


American League

Boston at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Jon Lester (L) vs. Andy Pettitte (L)
Lester: 19-7 TSR on grass
Pettitte: Yankees 17-22 when the money line is -100 to -150

Kansas City at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Kyle Davies (R) vs. Garrett Olson (L)
Davies: KC 39-71 when the total is 9 to 9.5
Olson: BAL 14-6 at Home following a win

Oakland at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Justin Duchscherer (R) vs. Javier Vazquez (R)
Duchscherer: OAK 9-20 in July
Vazquez: 8-0 TSR after a team win

Detroit at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Justin Verlander (R) vs. Carlos Silva (R)
Verlander: Det 43-17 as a road favorite of -125 or more
Silva: SEA 20-37 when the total is 8.5 to 10

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Database Stats & Trends

MLB


Thursday, July 3

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MLB Database Stats and Trends
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Today's MLB Pick: L.A.Dodgers vs. Houston: UNDER 8.5 -130

Who's Hot: Chicago White Sox 7 SU Wins, Tampa Bay 4 SU Wins

Who's Not: Boston 5 SU Losses, Cleveland 5 SU Losses, Atlanta 4 SU Losses


When BALTIMORE team played as a Home team - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 game winning streak.

SU Record: 19-4-0

O/U/P Record: 8-15-0


When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Coming off a series loss - Allowed 7 runs or more AGAINST in their last game.

SU Record: 11-1-0

O/U/P Record: 3-9-0


When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Coming off a 1 game win - Coming off a Win vs. AL WEST opponent.

SU Record: 10-2-0

O/U/P Record: 4-8-0


When BOSTON team played as a Road team - Vs. Left handed pitchers - 1st game of a series - Coming off a Road loss - Coming off a series loss.

SU Record: 9-2-0

O/U/P Record: 7-1-3


When NY METS team played as a Road team - Vs Conference Opponent - Playing on Thursday - Coming off a 1 game loss - Coming off a night game.

SU Record: 9-1-0

O/U/P Record: 2-6-2


When COLORADO team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During a night game - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent - Coming off a Home win.

SU Record: 6-4-0

O/U/P Record: 2-8-0


When BALTIMORE team Played as home team as a Favorite - During the 2008 season - During a night game.

SU Record: 12-3-0

O/U/P Record: 8-4-3


When BALTIMORE team Played as home team as a Favorite - During a night game - 4th game of a series.

SU Record: 7-6-0

O/U/P Record: 2-8-3


When KANSAS CITY team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - During the month of July.

SU Record: 3-8-0

O/U/P Record: 2-8-1


When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite - During the month of July - Total is 9.5.

SU Record: 32-8-0

O/U/P Record: 13-27-0

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Short Sheet (update)

MLB
Short Sheet

Updated game

Thursday, July 3rd

National League

Florida at Colorado, 8:05 ET
Andrew Miller (L) vs. Jeff Francis (L)
Miller: Fla 24-14 Over off a win
Francis: 8-0 Over at home vs. NL East

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