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Sunday NFL Week 5.........
These are my plays for week 5 action............
3 STAR: ATLANTA (+4.5) OVER Minnesota
The Vikings are 4-0 straight up and against the spread, while Atlanta is 1-3 having lost three in a row straight up and against the spread, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Atlanta has only scored 13 points combined in their last two games, but they have faced two of the best defenses in the league in Tampa Bay and Carolina. I rate the Vikings defense as about average overall, and the Falcons did manage to score 27 points on Dallas and 31 on Washington, so I look for their offense to have a breakout game against the Vikings. The Atlanta secondary should be able to do a good job against Moss and I can't see Frerotte duplicating last weeks performance (Culpepper will likely sit this one out again). Road favorites after four or more consecutive wins against the spread are only 12-34 against the spread the last ten seasons while home underdogs after three or more consecutive losses that have a winning percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record are a solid 96-50 against the spread the last 10 seasons. The Vikings are only is 1-5 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse over the last 3 seasons and Atlanta is 3-1 against the spread in the last four meetings against the Vikings. Take the points here!
3 STAR: NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) OVER Tennessee
I usually never plays New England as a favorite, only as an underdog (especially at home) where they excel. The Patriots are 6-1 against the spread as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 15-5 against the spread as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. The Patriots made many mistake last week against the Redskins which caused them to lose that game, but the Patriots should bounce back here at home where they are 11-6 against the spread in their last 17 games. The Patriots don't have a running game, and Tom Brady may have to throw the ball 50 times, but that is not a bad thing against the weakness of the Titans defense which is in the secondary. New England is also 12-6 against the spread in their last 18 when the total is between 35.5 and 42. I look for the Pats to get the win here!
3 STAR: NY GIANTS (PICK) OVER Miami
The Giants have had a lot of success against the AFC East in the past, posting a 10-2 record against the spread versus teams form that division since 1992. New York is also 10-2 against the spread after an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival since 1992 and 15-5 against the spread after an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992. Miami is coming off of a big home win against the Bills, but they are a different team on the road, and struggle to get past a very bad Jets team in the Meadowlands just two weeks ago. Miami is 1-5 against the spread in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons and road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off of a win by 10 points or more over a division rival and have a winning percentage of 60% to 75% that are playing another team with a winning record are only 7-27 since 1983. Look for the G Men to get the win here!
2 STAR: Washington (+5.5) OVER PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles hung on for a big road win at Buffalo last week, but I am still not sure they are back to the form that everyone expected from the Eagles this season. Washington has been playing very well and I look for their offense to be able to score on the Philly defense that is nowhere near what it was last season. The Redskins have been a solid play as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7, posting a record of 18-6 against the spread since 1992. Washington is also 7-2-1 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two teams and the road team is 5-1-1 in the last seven match ups. Take the points here with the Skins, there is a good chance that a field goal will decide this one!
2 STAR: Arizona (+7) OVER DALLAS
I have been on the Cowboys for their last two games as a road underdog against the Giants and the Jets, but I don't see them handling the role of a favorite very well here. After two very big wins on the road, it might be hard for the Boys to get up for the Cardinals. You can be sure that Arizona will be fired up to get a win for Emmitt Smith who feels he has something to prove against his former team. Four out of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less and the Cowboys are 0-6 against the spread as a favorite the last three seasons. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off of a road lose and have a winning percentage between 25% and 40% are 66-32 against the spread since 1983. Take the points here with the Cardinals!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-5 (-17.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 5-6 (-4.8 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 3-5-1 (-5.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 10-16-1 (-27.2 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2720.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
3 STAR: ATLANTA (+4.5) OVER Minnesota
The Vikings are 4-0 straight up and against the spread, while Atlanta is 1-3 having lost three in a row straight up and against the spread, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Atlanta has only scored 13 points combined in their last two games, but they have faced two of the best defenses in the league in Tampa Bay and Carolina. I rate the Vikings defense as about average overall, and the Falcons did manage to score 27 points on Dallas and 31 on Washington, so I look for their offense to have a breakout game against the Vikings. The Atlanta secondary should be able to do a good job against Moss and I can't see Frerotte duplicating last weeks performance (Culpepper will likely sit this one out again). Road favorites after four or more consecutive wins against the spread are only 12-34 against the spread the last ten seasons while home underdogs after three or more consecutive losses that have a winning percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record are a solid 96-50 against the spread the last 10 seasons. The Vikings are only is 1-5 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse over the last 3 seasons and Atlanta is 3-1 against the spread in the last four meetings against the Vikings. Take the points here!
3 STAR: NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) OVER Tennessee
I usually never plays New England as a favorite, only as an underdog (especially at home) where they excel. The Patriots are 6-1 against the spread as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 15-5 against the spread as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. The Patriots made many mistake last week against the Redskins which caused them to lose that game, but the Patriots should bounce back here at home where they are 11-6 against the spread in their last 17 games. The Patriots don't have a running game, and Tom Brady may have to throw the ball 50 times, but that is not a bad thing against the weakness of the Titans defense which is in the secondary. New England is also 12-6 against the spread in their last 18 when the total is between 35.5 and 42. I look for the Pats to get the win here!
3 STAR: NY GIANTS (PICK) OVER Miami
The Giants have had a lot of success against the AFC East in the past, posting a 10-2 record against the spread versus teams form that division since 1992. New York is also 10-2 against the spread after an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival since 1992 and 15-5 against the spread after an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992. Miami is coming off of a big home win against the Bills, but they are a different team on the road, and struggle to get past a very bad Jets team in the Meadowlands just two weeks ago. Miami is 1-5 against the spread in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons and road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off of a win by 10 points or more over a division rival and have a winning percentage of 60% to 75% that are playing another team with a winning record are only 7-27 since 1983. Look for the G Men to get the win here!
2 STAR: Washington (+5.5) OVER PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles hung on for a big road win at Buffalo last week, but I am still not sure they are back to the form that everyone expected from the Eagles this season. Washington has been playing very well and I look for their offense to be able to score on the Philly defense that is nowhere near what it was last season. The Redskins have been a solid play as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7, posting a record of 18-6 against the spread since 1992. Washington is also 7-2-1 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two teams and the road team is 5-1-1 in the last seven match ups. Take the points here with the Skins, there is a good chance that a field goal will decide this one!
2 STAR: Arizona (+7) OVER DALLAS
I have been on the Cowboys for their last two games as a road underdog against the Giants and the Jets, but I don't see them handling the role of a favorite very well here. After two very big wins on the road, it might be hard for the Boys to get up for the Cardinals. You can be sure that Arizona will be fired up to get a win for Emmitt Smith who feels he has something to prove against his former team. Four out of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less and the Cowboys are 0-6 against the spread as a favorite the last three seasons. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off of a road lose and have a winning percentage between 25% and 40% are 66-32 against the spread since 1983. Take the points here with the Cardinals!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-5 (-17.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 5-6 (-4.8 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 3-5-1 (-5.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 10-16-1 (-27.2 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2720.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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