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Indexes and projections
Below are the projections for the NCAA IA football games through
the games of 10-4-2003. Games against non-IA teams are excluded.
The favorite is listed first with the projected margin of victory
(i.e., the line) in parenthesis. 'TP' represents the total number of
points expected to be scored in the game and 'Odds' represents the odds
of the favorite winning straight-up (not against-the-spread). Last week,
the computer was 38-9 (.809) straight-up, 27-20 (.574) against-the-spread,
and 11-13 (.458) over/under. For the entire season, the computer is
176-52 (.772) straight-up, 118-106-4 (.526) against-the-spread, and
50-50-2 (.500) over/under.
Tuesday, September 30, 2003
Houston (-3) @ East Carolina (TP=55 Odds=.547)
Thursday, October 2, 2003
Miami (Florida) (-28) vs. West Virginia (TP=51 Odds=.895)
Friday, October 3, 2003
Oregon (-4) @ Utah (TP=56 Odds=.564)
Saturday, October 4, 2003
Oklahoma (-21) @ Iowa State (TP=55 Odds=.796)
Tennessee (-9) @ Auburn (TP=40 Odds=.688)
Georgia (-12) vs. Alabama (TP=43 Odds=.726)
Nebraska (-19) vs. Troy State (TP=45 Odds=.825)
Virginia Tech (-23) @ Rutgers (TP=56 Odds=.816)
Washington State (-25.5) vs. Arizona (TP=53 Odds=.856)
Texas (-6) vs. Kansas State (TP=58 Odds=.585)
Southern California (-12) @ Arizona State (TP=53 Odds=.685)
Iowa (-0.5) vs. Michigan (TP=47 Odds=.509)
Florida (-18) vs. Mississippi (TP=59 Odds=.741)
Minnesota (-11.5) @ Northwestern (TP=51 Odds=.684)
Air Force (-19) vs. Navy (TP=51 Odds=.789) @ Landover, MD
Louisville (-7.5) @ South Florida (TP=50 Odds=.625)
Oregon State (-3) @ California (TP=51 Odds=.545)
Purdue (-15) vs. Illinois (TP=46 Odds=.759)
Texas Christian (-32.5) vs. Army (TP=51 Odds=.931)
Wisconsin (-2.5) @ Penn State (TP=47 Odds=.546)
North Carolina State (-2.5) @ Georgia Tech (TP=52 Odds=.537)
Maryland (-4.5) vs. Clemson (TP=46 Odds=.581)
Boise State (-7) @ Louisiana Tech (TP=51 Odds=.615)
Northern Illinois (-22.5) vs. Ohio (TP=53 Odds=.824)
Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. Texas A&M (TP=60 Odds=.621)
Virginia (-10.5) @ North Carolina (TP=55 Odds=.657)
Michigan State (-18.5) vs. Indiana (TP=50 Odds=.788)
Miami (Ohio) (-17) vs. Akron (TP=59 Odds=.731)
Fresno State (-2) @ Colorado State (TP=51 Odds=.531)
Colorado (-15) @ Baylor (TP=52 Odds=.735)
Bowling Green State (-19.5) vs. Central Michigan (TP=50 Odds=.801)
UCLA (0) vs. Washington (TP=48 Odds=.501)
Oklahoma State (-25) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (TP=50 Odds=.869)
Cincinnati (-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (TP=45 Odds=.616)
Nevada-Las Vegas (-3.5) @ Nevada (TP=52 Odds=.557)
San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Brigham Young (TP=39 Odds=.556)
Hawaii (-8) @ Tulsa (TP=61 Odds=.608)
New Mexico (-10.5) vs. Utah State (TP=48 Odds=.682)
Memphis (-9) vs. Alabama-Birmingham (TP=47 Odds=.662)
Western Michigan (-14) @ Eastern Michigan (TP=55 Odds=.712)
Central Florida (-27) vs. Buffalo (TP=54 Odds=.863)
Kent (-4.5) vs. Ball State (TP=54 Odds=.568)
New Mexico State (-16) vs. Idaho (TP=51 Odds=.755)
Mississippi State (-6) vs. Vanderbilt (TP=52 Odds=.596)
San Jose State (-2) @ Rice (TP=58 Odds=.528)
Middle Tennessee State (-4) vs. Temple (TP=50 Odds=.565)
Arkansas State (-17) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (TP=52 Odds=.761)
Southern Methodist (-2) vs. Texas-El Paso (TP=47 Odds=.535)
The Pigskin Index is designed to give a quick comparison of the relative strength of all covered teams. To see how a game should turn out, simply compare the ratings of the competing teams and add 3 points to the home team. For example, a visiting team with a rating of 100 should be 7 points stronger than a home team with a rating of 90. 100 - (90 + 3) = 7. In neutral field games (such as many bowls), no home team advantage may be appropriate.
Saturday, October 4, 2003
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
10:00a - Connecticut* 81 17 Lehigh 67 -
10:00a Michigan State* 88 15 Indiana 76 -
10:00a Minnesota 95 10 Northwestern* 82 -
10:00a North Carolina State 97 9 Georgia Tech* 85 -
10:00a Virginia Tech 104 26 Rutgers* 75 -
10:00a - Wisconsin 92 1 Penn State* 88 -
10:30a FSN Colorado 88 17 Baylor* 68 -
10:30a Florida* 95 12 Mississippi 86 -
10:30a - Pennsylvania 81 26 Dartmouth* 52 -
11:00a - Colgate 74 20 Cornell* 51 -
11:05a - Indiana State* 59 11 Southern Illinois 51 -
11:30a - Air Force 90 16 Navy* 71 -
11:30a - Nebraska* 97 20 Troy State 80 -
11:30a - Virginia 96 11 North Carolina* 82 -
12:00p - Kent State* 75 6 Ball State 72 -
12:00p - Memphis* 80 13 UA-Birmingham 70 -
12:00p - Miami, O.* 92 25 Akron 70 -
12:00p - Western Michigan 75 14 Eastern Michigan* 58 -
12:30p - Illinois State* 66 10 Northern Iowa 59 -
12:30p - Mississippi State* 76 1 Vanderbilt 78 -
1:00p - Boise State 87 5 Louisiana Tech* 79 -
1:00p - Fresno State 90 2 Colorado State* 85 -
1:30p - Appalachian State* 65 14 East Tennessee State 54 -
1:30p CBS Georgia* 102 13 Alabama 92 -
1:30p ABC
Maryland* 97 6 Clemson 94 -
1:30p ABC
Michigan 103 6 Iowa* 94 -
1:30p ABC
Southern Cal 103 10 Arizona State* 90 -
1:30p ABC
Texas* 104 9 Kansas State 98 -
1:30p - Western Illinois* 74 3 Western Kentucky 74 -
2:00p - Bowling Green* 90 27 Central Michigan 66 -
2:00p - Wofford 73 17 Chattanooga* 53 -
2:30p Purdue* 98 19 Illinois 82 -
3:00p - California* 95 5 Oregon State 93 -
3:00p - Washington State* 101 28 Arizona 76 -
4:00p - Central Florida* 78 28 Buffalo 53 -
4:00p - Furman 77 14 Western Carolina* 60 -
4:00p - Villanova* 81 17 James Madison 67 -
4:30p FSN Washington 98 5 U.C.L.A.* 90 -
5:00p - Arkansas State* 63 9 La.-Monroe 57 -
5:00p - Cincinnati* 90 8 Southern Mississippi 85 -
5:00p - Delaware* 77 18 William & Mary 62 -
5:00p Hawaii 84 13 Tulsa* 68 -
5:00p - Mid. Tenn. State* 78 2 Temple 79 -
5:00p TBS Oklahoma 111 24 Iowa State* 84 -
5:00p - Oklahoma State* 97 36 La.-Lafayette 64 -
5:00p - Princeton* 58 12 Columbia 49 -
5:00p - South Florida* 87 3 Louisville 87 -
5:00p - T.C.U.* 90 33 Army 60 -
5:35p - Northern Illinois* 93 29 Ohio U. 67 -
5:45p Tennessee 102 1 Auburn* 98 -
6:00p - New Mexico* 85 20 Utah State 68 -
6:00p - New Mexico State* 75 14 Idaho 64 -
6:00p - Rice* 66 1 San Jose State 68 -
6:00p - S.M.U.* 66 10 UT-El Paso 59 -
8:00p FSN Texas Tech* 91 5 Texas A&M 89 -
8:05p San Diego State* 83 3 B.Y.U. 83 -
8:05p UN-Las Vegas 85 8 Nevada* 74 -
*Home Team = + 3 points **Neutral Field
Spr. = Expected Pointspread
Straight-Up Record: 217-57, 79.2% thru 10/3 + = Straight-Up Correct Pick
the games of 10-4-2003. Games against non-IA teams are excluded.
The favorite is listed first with the projected margin of victory
(i.e., the line) in parenthesis. 'TP' represents the total number of
points expected to be scored in the game and 'Odds' represents the odds
of the favorite winning straight-up (not against-the-spread). Last week,
the computer was 38-9 (.809) straight-up, 27-20 (.574) against-the-spread,
and 11-13 (.458) over/under. For the entire season, the computer is
176-52 (.772) straight-up, 118-106-4 (.526) against-the-spread, and
50-50-2 (.500) over/under.
Tuesday, September 30, 2003
Houston (-3) @ East Carolina (TP=55 Odds=.547)
Thursday, October 2, 2003
Miami (Florida) (-28) vs. West Virginia (TP=51 Odds=.895)
Friday, October 3, 2003
Oregon (-4) @ Utah (TP=56 Odds=.564)
Saturday, October 4, 2003
Oklahoma (-21) @ Iowa State (TP=55 Odds=.796)
Tennessee (-9) @ Auburn (TP=40 Odds=.688)
Georgia (-12) vs. Alabama (TP=43 Odds=.726)
Nebraska (-19) vs. Troy State (TP=45 Odds=.825)
Virginia Tech (-23) @ Rutgers (TP=56 Odds=.816)
Washington State (-25.5) vs. Arizona (TP=53 Odds=.856)
Texas (-6) vs. Kansas State (TP=58 Odds=.585)
Southern California (-12) @ Arizona State (TP=53 Odds=.685)
Iowa (-0.5) vs. Michigan (TP=47 Odds=.509)
Florida (-18) vs. Mississippi (TP=59 Odds=.741)
Minnesota (-11.5) @ Northwestern (TP=51 Odds=.684)
Air Force (-19) vs. Navy (TP=51 Odds=.789) @ Landover, MD
Louisville (-7.5) @ South Florida (TP=50 Odds=.625)
Oregon State (-3) @ California (TP=51 Odds=.545)
Purdue (-15) vs. Illinois (TP=46 Odds=.759)
Texas Christian (-32.5) vs. Army (TP=51 Odds=.931)
Wisconsin (-2.5) @ Penn State (TP=47 Odds=.546)
North Carolina State (-2.5) @ Georgia Tech (TP=52 Odds=.537)
Maryland (-4.5) vs. Clemson (TP=46 Odds=.581)
Boise State (-7) @ Louisiana Tech (TP=51 Odds=.615)
Northern Illinois (-22.5) vs. Ohio (TP=53 Odds=.824)
Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. Texas A&M (TP=60 Odds=.621)
Virginia (-10.5) @ North Carolina (TP=55 Odds=.657)
Michigan State (-18.5) vs. Indiana (TP=50 Odds=.788)
Miami (Ohio) (-17) vs. Akron (TP=59 Odds=.731)
Fresno State (-2) @ Colorado State (TP=51 Odds=.531)
Colorado (-15) @ Baylor (TP=52 Odds=.735)
Bowling Green State (-19.5) vs. Central Michigan (TP=50 Odds=.801)
UCLA (0) vs. Washington (TP=48 Odds=.501)
Oklahoma State (-25) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (TP=50 Odds=.869)
Cincinnati (-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (TP=45 Odds=.616)
Nevada-Las Vegas (-3.5) @ Nevada (TP=52 Odds=.557)
San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Brigham Young (TP=39 Odds=.556)
Hawaii (-8) @ Tulsa (TP=61 Odds=.608)
New Mexico (-10.5) vs. Utah State (TP=48 Odds=.682)
Memphis (-9) vs. Alabama-Birmingham (TP=47 Odds=.662)
Western Michigan (-14) @ Eastern Michigan (TP=55 Odds=.712)
Central Florida (-27) vs. Buffalo (TP=54 Odds=.863)
Kent (-4.5) vs. Ball State (TP=54 Odds=.568)
New Mexico State (-16) vs. Idaho (TP=51 Odds=.755)
Mississippi State (-6) vs. Vanderbilt (TP=52 Odds=.596)
San Jose State (-2) @ Rice (TP=58 Odds=.528)
Middle Tennessee State (-4) vs. Temple (TP=50 Odds=.565)
Arkansas State (-17) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (TP=52 Odds=.761)
Southern Methodist (-2) vs. Texas-El Paso (TP=47 Odds=.535)
The Pigskin Index is designed to give a quick comparison of the relative strength of all covered teams. To see how a game should turn out, simply compare the ratings of the competing teams and add 3 points to the home team. For example, a visiting team with a rating of 100 should be 7 points stronger than a home team with a rating of 90. 100 - (90 + 3) = 7. In neutral field games (such as many bowls), no home team advantage may be appropriate.
Saturday, October 4, 2003
MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
10:00a - Connecticut* 81 17 Lehigh 67 -
10:00a Michigan State* 88 15 Indiana 76 -
10:00a Minnesota 95 10 Northwestern* 82 -
10:00a North Carolina State 97 9 Georgia Tech* 85 -
10:00a Virginia Tech 104 26 Rutgers* 75 -
10:00a - Wisconsin 92 1 Penn State* 88 -
10:30a FSN Colorado 88 17 Baylor* 68 -
10:30a Florida* 95 12 Mississippi 86 -
10:30a - Pennsylvania 81 26 Dartmouth* 52 -
11:00a - Colgate 74 20 Cornell* 51 -
11:05a - Indiana State* 59 11 Southern Illinois 51 -
11:30a - Air Force 90 16 Navy* 71 -
11:30a - Nebraska* 97 20 Troy State 80 -
11:30a - Virginia 96 11 North Carolina* 82 -
12:00p - Kent State* 75 6 Ball State 72 -
12:00p - Memphis* 80 13 UA-Birmingham 70 -
12:00p - Miami, O.* 92 25 Akron 70 -
12:00p - Western Michigan 75 14 Eastern Michigan* 58 -
12:30p - Illinois State* 66 10 Northern Iowa 59 -
12:30p - Mississippi State* 76 1 Vanderbilt 78 -
1:00p - Boise State 87 5 Louisiana Tech* 79 -
1:00p - Fresno State 90 2 Colorado State* 85 -
1:30p - Appalachian State* 65 14 East Tennessee State 54 -
1:30p CBS Georgia* 102 13 Alabama 92 -
1:30p ABC
Maryland* 97 6 Clemson 94 -
1:30p ABC
Michigan 103 6 Iowa* 94 -
1:30p ABC
Southern Cal 103 10 Arizona State* 90 -
1:30p ABC
Texas* 104 9 Kansas State 98 -
1:30p - Western Illinois* 74 3 Western Kentucky 74 -
2:00p - Bowling Green* 90 27 Central Michigan 66 -
2:00p - Wofford 73 17 Chattanooga* 53 -
2:30p Purdue* 98 19 Illinois 82 -
3:00p - California* 95 5 Oregon State 93 -
3:00p - Washington State* 101 28 Arizona 76 -
4:00p - Central Florida* 78 28 Buffalo 53 -
4:00p - Furman 77 14 Western Carolina* 60 -
4:00p - Villanova* 81 17 James Madison 67 -
4:30p FSN Washington 98 5 U.C.L.A.* 90 -
5:00p - Arkansas State* 63 9 La.-Monroe 57 -
5:00p - Cincinnati* 90 8 Southern Mississippi 85 -
5:00p - Delaware* 77 18 William & Mary 62 -
5:00p Hawaii 84 13 Tulsa* 68 -
5:00p - Mid. Tenn. State* 78 2 Temple 79 -
5:00p TBS Oklahoma 111 24 Iowa State* 84 -
5:00p - Oklahoma State* 97 36 La.-Lafayette 64 -
5:00p - Princeton* 58 12 Columbia 49 -
5:00p - South Florida* 87 3 Louisville 87 -
5:00p - T.C.U.* 90 33 Army 60 -
5:35p - Northern Illinois* 93 29 Ohio U. 67 -
5:45p Tennessee 102 1 Auburn* 98 -
6:00p - New Mexico* 85 20 Utah State 68 -
6:00p - New Mexico State* 75 14 Idaho 64 -
6:00p - Rice* 66 1 San Jose State 68 -
6:00p - S.M.U.* 66 10 UT-El Paso 59 -
8:00p FSN Texas Tech* 91 5 Texas A&M 89 -
8:05p San Diego State* 83 3 B.Y.U. 83 -
8:05p UN-Las Vegas 85 8 Nevada* 74 -
*Home Team = + 3 points **Neutral Field
Spr. = Expected Pointspread
Straight-Up Record: 217-57, 79.2% thru 10/3 + = Straight-Up Correct Pick