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I sure hope this hasn't been posted already:
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS IN HOT DEBATE ABOUT LAKERS/CELTICS SERIES
I overheard some very spirited debates this past weekend at Nevada sportsbooks regarding the series price in the NBA Championship round.
There was a lot of talk about where the number would come before it went up Saturday morning. Then, there were ENTHUSIASTIC conversations about whether or not that was the right number!
The great thing about legal sports betting is that you can argue with your money. If you have a strong belief about something, walk right up to a sportsbook window and make your case. You're bound to find others who agree with you, but many who disagree. The sportsbook is happy to charge a vigorish while you guys settle your argument!
In a nutshell, here's what happened.
Sharps were wondering where the line would come given that Boston had home court advantage in the series. They would get to play four at home if the championships go the distance. And, the 2-3-2 format means the Lakers get three in a row at home in the middle of the series. We've seen time and time again that it's difficult for anybody to win three straight on their home floor in that spot. Boston would have home floor, AND be in the historical position of having that possible road victory in the mix too. Some sharps were sure Boston would be favored. I've mentioned before that Las Vegas and Reno are Lakers country. Some of this was "wishful" thinking because the guys wanted to bet the Lakers.
Others pointed out that Los Angeles had been much more impressive in the playoffs. They were in the brutal Western Conference, and had posted a stellar 12-3 mark. That's 80% victories. If you're going 12-3 against the West, how hard is it to go 4-3 against a team from the East that doesn't look to be as good now as they were earlier in the season? This group expected the Lakers to be the series favorite even though Boston had home court. They could see Los Angeles winning once or twice on the road, and even sweeping those three home games in the middle if need be. The Lakers haven't lost at home in the playoffs yet. And, they won once apiece at San Antonio and Utah, two very strong home courts.
Let me stop right there. You can already see the debate being formed. One side is going, "You morons, of course Boston has the edge. They've got home court for the series and they're going to be favored in all four home games." Then the other side says, "Have you been watching the playoffs? The Lakers are much better, and they've played the tougher schedule. They'll be favored by at least -140, maybe more."
I left out the curse words, and the name calling that goes on in these conversations. You can probably imagine what it sounded like if you've been around sports betting much.
Then, the opening line came out. Most places posted the Lakers around -160. The Celtics side of the argument had a heart attack. They couldn't believe it. The Lakers side of the argument had an "I told you so" element to it. But, even many of them were surprised that it was that high. The Boston people wanted to bet the Celtics right away figuring the line was a mistake and would go down. The Lakers people were hoping that would happen so they might see their strike point.
The line went UP! I told you that Nevada was Lakers country. The public hit the Lakers hard, because they've been winning with the Lakers through the playoffs. Some sharps on the Lakers side saw what was happening and jumped in quickly. Suddenly Lakers -160 wasn't looking so bad after all. The Boston guys who wanted to bet the Celtics at +140 realized they should wait to see if they could get a better number. They didn't have to wait long.
Finally, the number settled around Lakers -190. That's where it stands as I write this. It may change again before you read it. But, I'm sensing that the Lakers money won't go higher than -200...and the Celtics money has decided that now's the time to bet. We've got an equilibrium for the time being. Injury news or other developments might lead to changes between now and Thursday Night's tipoff.
The Boston backers think they have a steal.
The Lakers money will be focusing on taking LA plus the points in the road games and trying to pick spots at home.
The Boston backers are wondering if they misread the series, because they were off BY A MILE in their assessments of what was going to happen.
The Lakers money feels vindicated by their read on who the better team was, but stunned by how quickly their perceived value disappeared.
It was quite a weekend!
What do I think about the series? I'm not going to divulge that here. My analysis and strategies will be the backbone of my game-by-game selection process for my clients. I can tell you what the sharps are thinking from both sides of the equation.
Boston backers think that defense is going to win the series. They believe that Boston has a better defense than San Antonio does, and will find a way to slow down Kobe Bryant. There's an old school tradition about handicapping defense. You may have heard the phrase "defensive dogs" in football. Boston is a classic defensive dog. They've clearly got the better defense, and now they're the underdog in a series where they have home court advantage. The Boston guys think this is a potent combo, and are very happy with their position.
Los Angeles backers point to how great the team has been playing since acquiring Pau Gasol. The team was 30-6 in the regular season after that big trade. Charles Barkley said on TV that this bunch was a better "team" than the Shaquille O'Neal championship squads because of depth and chemistry. I've talked to people who have watched the Lakers for years, and they agree. They love the ball movement on offense. And, they think the defense is underrated. Keep in mind that the Lakers swept a team with Anthony Iverson and Carmelo Anthony taking shots...and they shut down Manu Ginobili in four of five games in the last round. Sometimes you only have to shut down one key player to put yourself over the top.
It's not often that sharps are in this much disagreement about a series. Usually the sharps are lined up on one side, and the public is on the other. In this case, the public has spoken loud and clear. The sharps who like the Lakers will have to get creative to find value. The sharps who like Boston are in their usual spot battling the public.
I can already tell this series is going to be over-hyped by the TV networks. The league is playing into that, having Jerry West and John Havlicek present the conference championship trophies. Too bad they're all missing out on what's happening in Nevada. The buzz about this series just isn't going to die down until the teams start going at it. And, even then, it might get louder if it's a great series!
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS IN HOT DEBATE ABOUT LAKERS/CELTICS SERIES
I overheard some very spirited debates this past weekend at Nevada sportsbooks regarding the series price in the NBA Championship round.
There was a lot of talk about where the number would come before it went up Saturday morning. Then, there were ENTHUSIASTIC conversations about whether or not that was the right number!
The great thing about legal sports betting is that you can argue with your money. If you have a strong belief about something, walk right up to a sportsbook window and make your case. You're bound to find others who agree with you, but many who disagree. The sportsbook is happy to charge a vigorish while you guys settle your argument!
In a nutshell, here's what happened.
Sharps were wondering where the line would come given that Boston had home court advantage in the series. They would get to play four at home if the championships go the distance. And, the 2-3-2 format means the Lakers get three in a row at home in the middle of the series. We've seen time and time again that it's difficult for anybody to win three straight on their home floor in that spot. Boston would have home floor, AND be in the historical position of having that possible road victory in the mix too. Some sharps were sure Boston would be favored. I've mentioned before that Las Vegas and Reno are Lakers country. Some of this was "wishful" thinking because the guys wanted to bet the Lakers.
Others pointed out that Los Angeles had been much more impressive in the playoffs. They were in the brutal Western Conference, and had posted a stellar 12-3 mark. That's 80% victories. If you're going 12-3 against the West, how hard is it to go 4-3 against a team from the East that doesn't look to be as good now as they were earlier in the season? This group expected the Lakers to be the series favorite even though Boston had home court. They could see Los Angeles winning once or twice on the road, and even sweeping those three home games in the middle if need be. The Lakers haven't lost at home in the playoffs yet. And, they won once apiece at San Antonio and Utah, two very strong home courts.
Let me stop right there. You can already see the debate being formed. One side is going, "You morons, of course Boston has the edge. They've got home court for the series and they're going to be favored in all four home games." Then the other side says, "Have you been watching the playoffs? The Lakers are much better, and they've played the tougher schedule. They'll be favored by at least -140, maybe more."
I left out the curse words, and the name calling that goes on in these conversations. You can probably imagine what it sounded like if you've been around sports betting much.
Then, the opening line came out. Most places posted the Lakers around -160. The Celtics side of the argument had a heart attack. They couldn't believe it. The Lakers side of the argument had an "I told you so" element to it. But, even many of them were surprised that it was that high. The Boston people wanted to bet the Celtics right away figuring the line was a mistake and would go down. The Lakers people were hoping that would happen so they might see their strike point.
The line went UP! I told you that Nevada was Lakers country. The public hit the Lakers hard, because they've been winning with the Lakers through the playoffs. Some sharps on the Lakers side saw what was happening and jumped in quickly. Suddenly Lakers -160 wasn't looking so bad after all. The Boston guys who wanted to bet the Celtics at +140 realized they should wait to see if they could get a better number. They didn't have to wait long.
Finally, the number settled around Lakers -190. That's where it stands as I write this. It may change again before you read it. But, I'm sensing that the Lakers money won't go higher than -200...and the Celtics money has decided that now's the time to bet. We've got an equilibrium for the time being. Injury news or other developments might lead to changes between now and Thursday Night's tipoff.
The Boston backers think they have a steal.
The Lakers money will be focusing on taking LA plus the points in the road games and trying to pick spots at home.
The Boston backers are wondering if they misread the series, because they were off BY A MILE in their assessments of what was going to happen.
The Lakers money feels vindicated by their read on who the better team was, but stunned by how quickly their perceived value disappeared.
It was quite a weekend!
What do I think about the series? I'm not going to divulge that here. My analysis and strategies will be the backbone of my game-by-game selection process for my clients. I can tell you what the sharps are thinking from both sides of the equation.
Boston backers think that defense is going to win the series. They believe that Boston has a better defense than San Antonio does, and will find a way to slow down Kobe Bryant. There's an old school tradition about handicapping defense. You may have heard the phrase "defensive dogs" in football. Boston is a classic defensive dog. They've clearly got the better defense, and now they're the underdog in a series where they have home court advantage. The Boston guys think this is a potent combo, and are very happy with their position.
Los Angeles backers point to how great the team has been playing since acquiring Pau Gasol. The team was 30-6 in the regular season after that big trade. Charles Barkley said on TV that this bunch was a better "team" than the Shaquille O'Neal championship squads because of depth and chemistry. I've talked to people who have watched the Lakers for years, and they agree. They love the ball movement on offense. And, they think the defense is underrated. Keep in mind that the Lakers swept a team with Anthony Iverson and Carmelo Anthony taking shots...and they shut down Manu Ginobili in four of five games in the last round. Sometimes you only have to shut down one key player to put yourself over the top.
It's not often that sharps are in this much disagreement about a series. Usually the sharps are lined up on one side, and the public is on the other. In this case, the public has spoken loud and clear. The sharps who like the Lakers will have to get creative to find value. The sharps who like Boston are in their usual spot battling the public.
I can already tell this series is going to be over-hyped by the TV networks. The league is playing into that, having Jerry West and John Havlicek present the conference championship trophies. Too bad they're all missing out on what's happening in Nevada. The buzz about this series just isn't going to die down until the teams start going at it. And, even then, it might get louder if it's a great series!
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