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BIG 10 MUSINGS
Michigan (-3) @ Iowa
Last year, in Iowa's dream season, the Hawkeyes simply routed the Wolverines to the tune of 34-9. Believe me when I say that Michigan will come into this game with visions of that thumping dancing in their heads. This game has lost some luster in the past two weeks after Michigan traveled to Eugene (Sports Illustrated jinx??) and fell to Oregon and Iowa was upset by Michigan State. What was going to be an undefeated showdown for a top 5 ranking has turned instead to a game between 1 loss teams.
Last week Michigan obviously suffered from unbeaten let-down as they were sloppy and unfocused in defeating Indiana. They turned the ball over 4 times, but still led 31-3 with under 5 minutes left. We will discount the garbage scores that the Hoosiers scored and see a semi-dominating performance in a certain look ahead spot for the Wolves.
Iowa, on the other hand, fell behind early and this may continue to be trouble for the Hawkeyes. QB Nathan Chandler is throwing for only 125 ypg and last week was able to connect on only 11-23 attempting to come from behind. With Michigan's talented secondary, Iowa will probably continue to struggle through the air this week.
Before we jump on the Wolverine Train with both feet, note that there are some troubling trends. Iowa is 12-5 ATS when they meet, and Michigan is only 7-13-1 ATS on the road in the league. I attribute the first stat to the fact that Iowa was a perennial doormat and Michigan often overlooked them. With last year's hummiliation, this won't be the case here.
Michigan 31
Iowa 20
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Illinois @ Purdue (-14)
Last week, for the first time this year, the Illini were totally dominated by Wisconsin, who ran the ball up and down the field all Saturday long, finishing with 307 yards rushing. Perhaps the team's inability to pull out close games have taken a place in their psyche, and now they take on a talented Purdue team that is still a threat to win the Big 10. Illinois has yet to beat a DI opponent this year, and they are averaging only 15.5 ppg in those contests.
One thing is for sure here, and that's if Illinois is to win this game, it won't be running the ball. They gained only 67 yards last week, and the Boilermakers are allowing a measly 55 ypg at only 1.7 ypc. After a season opening loss to Bowling Green, Purdue is starting to roll winning its last three games against Wake Forest, Arizona and Notre Dame.
This is a tricky spot for Purdue. First of all, the Boiler players were keyed in on last week’s game vs. Notre Dame and had been for almost a full year. That was a HUGE game for them as no player on the current squad had ever beaten the Notre Dame. They had "outplayed" the Irish the past few games yet still fell short. So despite this being the Big 10 opener, they may be a bit flat here. They do take care of teams at home in the league, as the are 10-1 ATS in home tilts in the Big 10. They are also 20-11-2 ATS at home which tilts the scales in Tiller's boys favor here.
Purdue 35
Illinois 16
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Indiana @ Michigan State (-15.5)
Michigan State is off two very impressive win, the first vs. long-time rival Notre Dame which they followed with last week's 20-10 upset of #9 Iowa. They now take on a scrappy Indiana team that they humiliated last year, 56-21.
The Hoosiers have played very hard despite being out-muscled ever since DiNardo has taken over the program. The defense has really made strides this year, as they earlier held Kentucky for only 354 total yards, and last week held Michigan to 338 yards, 150 below their season average. They gave up 168 yards on 36 carries (4.6 ypc) but that was a bit deceiving as 58 of those yards came on two long first half runs.
Michigan State continues to excel vs. the run, but they have been able to be passed upon (Iowa's weakness) for 279 ypg. While Indiana's passing attack doesn't remind anyone of the Fun 'n Gun, they do have some weapons in the passing game to gain some yards vs. the Spartans.
While Michigan State used to have one of the country's top home field advantages, they are only 2-12 ATS at home in their recent games. They have to be patting themselves on the back after two gigantic wins for them, and they are finally back in the polls at #25. Indiana will not quit in this game, and the backdoor is wide-open in a great spot for the Hoosiers.
Michigan State 24
Indiana 14
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Minnesota (-11) @ Northwestern
This has been a series dominated by the visiting team as they have gone 8-0 ATS. This is particulary puzzling due to the differences of home fields (dome, turf vs. outdoor, grass).
Minnesota was very fortunate to walk out of Happy Valley with a win last week as the Lions totally stymied the Gopher's rushing attack after allowing them to march up the field early and often. But they still come into this game 5-0, and kudos must be given for that record. While NW may not have the stingy "D" of the Lions, they do possess the best offense that the Gophers have faced this year.
In yet another letdown situation, I look for Northwestern to put up a major fight here. Minnesota heard all about their easy schedule and despite being outgained by over 100 yards pulled out a game many expected them to flop in. Now they travel again in-league and are a double digit road fav. Mason has been favored by more than 10 points only 4 times in the Big 10 (once on the road, a loss) and have gone 1-3 ATS. The dog has barked at a 9-2 ATS rate when these two meet, and Northwestern is 14-7 ATS getting points in the Big 10. Ruff!!! Ruff!!!
Northwestern 27
Minnesota 24
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Wisconsin (-1) @ Penn State
The Nittany Lions took a look at their future last week with true frosh Austin Scott starting at TB and Michael Robinson taking over for an injured Zack Mills at QB. The offense found a much needed spark but fell just short, but improvement will continue with these two in the lineup.
Penn State continues to bend-but-don't-break, giving up big yards on the ground but not big points. This has been a long-time philosophy at Happy Valley, and few can say it hasn't worked. This week will be a major test vs. the powerful Badgers who simply love to pound the ball.
Wisconsin always struggles in games it "should" win, and this may be one of those game it percieves as such. This is the second week in a row that the Lions are home dogs, and they will be highly motivated for this one. Add in the fact that its homecoming, along with Wisky's struggles as a fav (10-19 ATS laying wood), and its not hard to see the Lions pulling out this tight one at the end.
Penn State 24
Wisconsin 23
Michigan (-3) @ Iowa
Last year, in Iowa's dream season, the Hawkeyes simply routed the Wolverines to the tune of 34-9. Believe me when I say that Michigan will come into this game with visions of that thumping dancing in their heads. This game has lost some luster in the past two weeks after Michigan traveled to Eugene (Sports Illustrated jinx??) and fell to Oregon and Iowa was upset by Michigan State. What was going to be an undefeated showdown for a top 5 ranking has turned instead to a game between 1 loss teams.
Last week Michigan obviously suffered from unbeaten let-down as they were sloppy and unfocused in defeating Indiana. They turned the ball over 4 times, but still led 31-3 with under 5 minutes left. We will discount the garbage scores that the Hoosiers scored and see a semi-dominating performance in a certain look ahead spot for the Wolves.
Iowa, on the other hand, fell behind early and this may continue to be trouble for the Hawkeyes. QB Nathan Chandler is throwing for only 125 ypg and last week was able to connect on only 11-23 attempting to come from behind. With Michigan's talented secondary, Iowa will probably continue to struggle through the air this week.
Before we jump on the Wolverine Train with both feet, note that there are some troubling trends. Iowa is 12-5 ATS when they meet, and Michigan is only 7-13-1 ATS on the road in the league. I attribute the first stat to the fact that Iowa was a perennial doormat and Michigan often overlooked them. With last year's hummiliation, this won't be the case here.
Michigan 31
Iowa 20
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Illinois @ Purdue (-14)
Last week, for the first time this year, the Illini were totally dominated by Wisconsin, who ran the ball up and down the field all Saturday long, finishing with 307 yards rushing. Perhaps the team's inability to pull out close games have taken a place in their psyche, and now they take on a talented Purdue team that is still a threat to win the Big 10. Illinois has yet to beat a DI opponent this year, and they are averaging only 15.5 ppg in those contests.
One thing is for sure here, and that's if Illinois is to win this game, it won't be running the ball. They gained only 67 yards last week, and the Boilermakers are allowing a measly 55 ypg at only 1.7 ypc. After a season opening loss to Bowling Green, Purdue is starting to roll winning its last three games against Wake Forest, Arizona and Notre Dame.
This is a tricky spot for Purdue. First of all, the Boiler players were keyed in on last week’s game vs. Notre Dame and had been for almost a full year. That was a HUGE game for them as no player on the current squad had ever beaten the Notre Dame. They had "outplayed" the Irish the past few games yet still fell short. So despite this being the Big 10 opener, they may be a bit flat here. They do take care of teams at home in the league, as the are 10-1 ATS in home tilts in the Big 10. They are also 20-11-2 ATS at home which tilts the scales in Tiller's boys favor here.
Purdue 35
Illinois 16
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Indiana @ Michigan State (-15.5)
Michigan State is off two very impressive win, the first vs. long-time rival Notre Dame which they followed with last week's 20-10 upset of #9 Iowa. They now take on a scrappy Indiana team that they humiliated last year, 56-21.
The Hoosiers have played very hard despite being out-muscled ever since DiNardo has taken over the program. The defense has really made strides this year, as they earlier held Kentucky for only 354 total yards, and last week held Michigan to 338 yards, 150 below their season average. They gave up 168 yards on 36 carries (4.6 ypc) but that was a bit deceiving as 58 of those yards came on two long first half runs.
Michigan State continues to excel vs. the run, but they have been able to be passed upon (Iowa's weakness) for 279 ypg. While Indiana's passing attack doesn't remind anyone of the Fun 'n Gun, they do have some weapons in the passing game to gain some yards vs. the Spartans.
While Michigan State used to have one of the country's top home field advantages, they are only 2-12 ATS at home in their recent games. They have to be patting themselves on the back after two gigantic wins for them, and they are finally back in the polls at #25. Indiana will not quit in this game, and the backdoor is wide-open in a great spot for the Hoosiers.
Michigan State 24
Indiana 14
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Minnesota (-11) @ Northwestern
This has been a series dominated by the visiting team as they have gone 8-0 ATS. This is particulary puzzling due to the differences of home fields (dome, turf vs. outdoor, grass).
Minnesota was very fortunate to walk out of Happy Valley with a win last week as the Lions totally stymied the Gopher's rushing attack after allowing them to march up the field early and often. But they still come into this game 5-0, and kudos must be given for that record. While NW may not have the stingy "D" of the Lions, they do possess the best offense that the Gophers have faced this year.
In yet another letdown situation, I look for Northwestern to put up a major fight here. Minnesota heard all about their easy schedule and despite being outgained by over 100 yards pulled out a game many expected them to flop in. Now they travel again in-league and are a double digit road fav. Mason has been favored by more than 10 points only 4 times in the Big 10 (once on the road, a loss) and have gone 1-3 ATS. The dog has barked at a 9-2 ATS rate when these two meet, and Northwestern is 14-7 ATS getting points in the Big 10. Ruff!!! Ruff!!!
Northwestern 27
Minnesota 24
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Wisconsin (-1) @ Penn State
The Nittany Lions took a look at their future last week with true frosh Austin Scott starting at TB and Michael Robinson taking over for an injured Zack Mills at QB. The offense found a much needed spark but fell just short, but improvement will continue with these two in the lineup.
Penn State continues to bend-but-don't-break, giving up big yards on the ground but not big points. This has been a long-time philosophy at Happy Valley, and few can say it hasn't worked. This week will be a major test vs. the powerful Badgers who simply love to pound the ball.
Wisconsin always struggles in games it "should" win, and this may be one of those game it percieves as such. This is the second week in a row that the Lions are home dogs, and they will be highly motivated for this one. Add in the fact that its homecoming, along with Wisky's struggles as a fav (10-19 ATS laying wood), and its not hard to see the Lions pulling out this tight one at the end.
Penn State 24
Wisconsin 23