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I have my largest play of the baseball season tonight on Arizona. The odds are a gift, as I believe that they should be between -220 and -275 as favorites. Instead they are giving very small juice. Why? A few reasons.
1. Marlins have been hot at home, and the toughest dog to beat at any book. They have been the best story of the first quarter of the MLB season, and have beaten the odds as 'dogs too many times for the books to continue to devalue them.
2. Too much emphasis placed on SPs last 3 starts. Andrew Miller has shaved his ERA from 9.3 to 6.6 in his last few starts, with some #1 draft pick-worthy outings. Let's not lose sight of the fact that he did so at home against the Padres and Royals, who don't have as many weapons combined as the D-backs.
3. Dan Haren does not get the respect he deserves. The books know that Dan Haren on the mound does not resonate with players like Santana, Sabathia, Peavy, Webb, or even Zambrano. The truth is, Haren is the only top 15 SP in baseball that nobody talks about. He may not win a Cy Young any time soon, and he's not even the ace of his staff, but he is as solid a bet as there is to tame the current Marlins lineup.
The bottom line is that with the (large) exception of Hanley Ramirez the Dbacks are more talented at every position on the field than the Marlins, and Haren has an impressive history of stymying hitters the first time they face him (which will be just about every Marlin in the order).
Arizona ML -135 40 units
Arizona RL +115 15 units
Good luck.
1. Marlins have been hot at home, and the toughest dog to beat at any book. They have been the best story of the first quarter of the MLB season, and have beaten the odds as 'dogs too many times for the books to continue to devalue them.
2. Too much emphasis placed on SPs last 3 starts. Andrew Miller has shaved his ERA from 9.3 to 6.6 in his last few starts, with some #1 draft pick-worthy outings. Let's not lose sight of the fact that he did so at home against the Padres and Royals, who don't have as many weapons combined as the D-backs.
3. Dan Haren does not get the respect he deserves. The books know that Dan Haren on the mound does not resonate with players like Santana, Sabathia, Peavy, Webb, or even Zambrano. The truth is, Haren is the only top 15 SP in baseball that nobody talks about. He may not win a Cy Young any time soon, and he's not even the ace of his staff, but he is as solid a bet as there is to tame the current Marlins lineup.
The bottom line is that with the (large) exception of Hanley Ramirez the Dbacks are more talented at every position on the field than the Marlins, and Haren has an impressive history of stymying hitters the first time they face him (which will be just about every Marlin in the order).
Arizona ML -135 40 units
Arizona RL +115 15 units
Good luck.
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