Tweet
By Simon Milham – Britain’s top Football Handicapper and www.tradesports.com columnist.
With a quarter of the season already gone, favourite backers have never had it so good – especially those who follow favoured teams on the road.
There have been 13 road favourites so far; 11 have won Against The Spread (ATS), two have lost, giving a percentage of 84.6. That is a stunning statistic. Home favourites have not fared so well ATS – the record is 22-21 with a further two games tied on the handicap lines.
The conundrum we have this week is seeking three solid home favourites who will buck the spread trend and cover.
The first real test for Miami (2-1) comes in the Big Apple on Sunday, when the Dolphins head into Giants Stadium for the second time this season to face Big Blue (2-1).
At this early stage, both appear to hold serious Super Bowl claims, though the Giants must shore up a defense that has given up big chucks of yardage through the air, particularly over the middle. The three QBs they have faced have averaged 314.5 yards per game.
Surprisingly for a defense-first team, they rank last of the 32 NFL teams in total defense and in passing defense.
Their offensive line has been rebuilt again this summer and the loss of Center Dusty Ziegler has created something of a void along the interior line, where there is also a lack of depth on the offensive front after the departure of OG Jason Whittle and OT Mike Rosenthal.
Yet their offense is one of the better-balanced attacks in the NFL and QB Kerry Collins has developed into one of the league’s most reliable passers. TE Jeremy Shokey is his own worst enemy and he would do better to let his talent speak for itself, but he will find holes behind the Dolphins’ front four and keep the chains moving.
The Dolphins quick secondary plays plenty of zone coverage and that is where the Giants may have problems. They comprehensively shut down the Bills’ potent passing attack in a 17-7 Week 3 success at Pro Player Stadium with a good rush up front. The Giants’ offensive line is better and should give Collins time.
On the other side of the ball, Miami has Chris Chambers to throw to, but very little else. The Giants will not give up yards on the ground to Ricky Williams like the Bills did, though if QB Jay Fiedler is asked to go and win the game, he may flounder.
The key for the Giants is to get their noses in front early and nullify the Miami running game, forcing Fiedler to throw. The Giants are considered 0.5-point favourites with tradesports.com, a person-to-person sports trading exchange, where there is no bookie and where you can dictate your own odds. You can also bet while the game is in running.
Miami have lost four of their last five games coming off a bye week and homefield advantage may sway it. For those reasons, the Giants are taken to win a surprisingly high-scoring contest.
At 1-3, San Francisco are in turmoil and with former head coach Steve Mariucci heading into town to face his old club, many will favour the Detroit Lions to keep the score close.
With their TE out, their QB not playing well and the utter disgust with which teammates have for star receiver Terrell Owens, there is not too much to get enthused about in the Bay area. Yet the 49ers should be able to gain a much-needed win and cover the 7.5-point spread against Detroit, who were somewhat unlucky on the road in Denver last week.
Offensive co-ordinator Greg Knapp is more mature than Owens, who has to realise that there is no one man bigger than the team. He will see plenty of action and will make the most of it, but despite his brooding and childish outbursts on the sidelines in Minnesota, Owens still managed 100 catches for the first time last year and is their playmaker, whether the coaches like it or not.
Despite his obvious lack of class and manners, Owens has a valid point about the vanilla playcalling – but he is becoming a cancer, and unless Dennis Erickson stamps on him, the 49ers’ season will quickly be over. Detroit is the ideal opponent to get back on track.
Finally, the Cincinnati Bengals appear to be heading in the right direction after their 21-14 win in Cleveland. However, they may face one more loss on the road to Buffalo, who have dropped their last two against smothering defenses.
The Bengals are not yet up to the calibre of the Miamis and the Philadelphias of the NFL, but they are giving up less yards on defense and rank in the top 10 in passing yards per game, allowing an average of 180.
The Bills’ offense might be without RB Travis Henry, but there is no getting away from the fact that they scored a combined 69 points in their first two games against the Patriots and Jaguars. Drew Bledsoe can still rip apart poor defenses and although they are improving rapidly under Marv Lewis, the Bengals still fall into that category.
The Bengals’ pass defense is the key here. The feeling is they may not be able to live with Eric Moulds, but if they spread the ball on offense to Peter Warrick, Chad Johnson and TE Reggie Kelly, this could develop into a high-scoring slugging match with the team that has the ball last proving the winner.
Expect the Bills to bounce back and cover the 7.5-point spread in a high-scoring encounter.
Milham’s Week 4 Fab Favourites:
NY Giants –0.5 (Over 37.5), 49ers –7.5 (Under 42.5), Bills –7.5 (Over 44.5).
Fab Favourites are 9-3 for the season (75 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Dog Delights are 6-6 for the season (50 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Unders/Overs are 15-9 for the season (62.5 per cent) 6-0 last week.
Simon Milham is a columnist with www.tradesports.com. TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
Home favourites are only firing at 51 per cent, but away favourites
The Favorites ATS Record: 33W - 24L - 2T 57.9%
*** wow - faves covering at a tremendous rate
Dogs ATS Record: 24W - 33L - 2T 42.1%
***ouch - dogs not barking!
Home Favorites ATS Record: 22W - 21L - 2T 51.2%
***home faves not performing well
Home Dogs ATS Record: 2W - 11L 15.4%
***are you kidding me home dogs only covering 15% - these are usually some of the best plays - this stat is unbelievable!
Road Favorites ATS Record: 11W - 2L 84.6%
***this is the biggest surprise stat of the season - who would have thought through 4 weeks almost 85% of road favorites would have covered...
# of games that went over thus far = 25 42.4%
# of games that went under thus far = 34 57.6%
***unders have been solid so far
Straight Up home team record: 33W - 26L 55.9%
***slight home field advantage
With a quarter of the season already gone, favourite backers have never had it so good – especially those who follow favoured teams on the road.
There have been 13 road favourites so far; 11 have won Against The Spread (ATS), two have lost, giving a percentage of 84.6. That is a stunning statistic. Home favourites have not fared so well ATS – the record is 22-21 with a further two games tied on the handicap lines.
The conundrum we have this week is seeking three solid home favourites who will buck the spread trend and cover.
The first real test for Miami (2-1) comes in the Big Apple on Sunday, when the Dolphins head into Giants Stadium for the second time this season to face Big Blue (2-1).
At this early stage, both appear to hold serious Super Bowl claims, though the Giants must shore up a defense that has given up big chucks of yardage through the air, particularly over the middle. The three QBs they have faced have averaged 314.5 yards per game.
Surprisingly for a defense-first team, they rank last of the 32 NFL teams in total defense and in passing defense.
Their offensive line has been rebuilt again this summer and the loss of Center Dusty Ziegler has created something of a void along the interior line, where there is also a lack of depth on the offensive front after the departure of OG Jason Whittle and OT Mike Rosenthal.
Yet their offense is one of the better-balanced attacks in the NFL and QB Kerry Collins has developed into one of the league’s most reliable passers. TE Jeremy Shokey is his own worst enemy and he would do better to let his talent speak for itself, but he will find holes behind the Dolphins’ front four and keep the chains moving.
The Dolphins quick secondary plays plenty of zone coverage and that is where the Giants may have problems. They comprehensively shut down the Bills’ potent passing attack in a 17-7 Week 3 success at Pro Player Stadium with a good rush up front. The Giants’ offensive line is better and should give Collins time.
On the other side of the ball, Miami has Chris Chambers to throw to, but very little else. The Giants will not give up yards on the ground to Ricky Williams like the Bills did, though if QB Jay Fiedler is asked to go and win the game, he may flounder.
The key for the Giants is to get their noses in front early and nullify the Miami running game, forcing Fiedler to throw. The Giants are considered 0.5-point favourites with tradesports.com, a person-to-person sports trading exchange, where there is no bookie and where you can dictate your own odds. You can also bet while the game is in running.
Miami have lost four of their last five games coming off a bye week and homefield advantage may sway it. For those reasons, the Giants are taken to win a surprisingly high-scoring contest.
At 1-3, San Francisco are in turmoil and with former head coach Steve Mariucci heading into town to face his old club, many will favour the Detroit Lions to keep the score close.
With their TE out, their QB not playing well and the utter disgust with which teammates have for star receiver Terrell Owens, there is not too much to get enthused about in the Bay area. Yet the 49ers should be able to gain a much-needed win and cover the 7.5-point spread against Detroit, who were somewhat unlucky on the road in Denver last week.
Offensive co-ordinator Greg Knapp is more mature than Owens, who has to realise that there is no one man bigger than the team. He will see plenty of action and will make the most of it, but despite his brooding and childish outbursts on the sidelines in Minnesota, Owens still managed 100 catches for the first time last year and is their playmaker, whether the coaches like it or not.
Despite his obvious lack of class and manners, Owens has a valid point about the vanilla playcalling – but he is becoming a cancer, and unless Dennis Erickson stamps on him, the 49ers’ season will quickly be over. Detroit is the ideal opponent to get back on track.
Finally, the Cincinnati Bengals appear to be heading in the right direction after their 21-14 win in Cleveland. However, they may face one more loss on the road to Buffalo, who have dropped their last two against smothering defenses.
The Bengals are not yet up to the calibre of the Miamis and the Philadelphias of the NFL, but they are giving up less yards on defense and rank in the top 10 in passing yards per game, allowing an average of 180.
The Bills’ offense might be without RB Travis Henry, but there is no getting away from the fact that they scored a combined 69 points in their first two games against the Patriots and Jaguars. Drew Bledsoe can still rip apart poor defenses and although they are improving rapidly under Marv Lewis, the Bengals still fall into that category.
The Bengals’ pass defense is the key here. The feeling is they may not be able to live with Eric Moulds, but if they spread the ball on offense to Peter Warrick, Chad Johnson and TE Reggie Kelly, this could develop into a high-scoring slugging match with the team that has the ball last proving the winner.
Expect the Bills to bounce back and cover the 7.5-point spread in a high-scoring encounter.
Milham’s Week 4 Fab Favourites:
NY Giants –0.5 (Over 37.5), 49ers –7.5 (Under 42.5), Bills –7.5 (Over 44.5).
Fab Favourites are 9-3 for the season (75 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Dog Delights are 6-6 for the season (50 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Unders/Overs are 15-9 for the season (62.5 per cent) 6-0 last week.
Simon Milham is a columnist with www.tradesports.com. TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
Home favourites are only firing at 51 per cent, but away favourites
The Favorites ATS Record: 33W - 24L - 2T 57.9%
*** wow - faves covering at a tremendous rate
Dogs ATS Record: 24W - 33L - 2T 42.1%
***ouch - dogs not barking!
Home Favorites ATS Record: 22W - 21L - 2T 51.2%
***home faves not performing well
Home Dogs ATS Record: 2W - 11L 15.4%
***are you kidding me home dogs only covering 15% - these are usually some of the best plays - this stat is unbelievable!
Road Favorites ATS Record: 11W - 2L 84.6%
***this is the biggest surprise stat of the season - who would have thought through 4 weeks almost 85% of road favorites would have covered...
# of games that went over thus far = 25 42.4%
# of games that went under thus far = 34 57.6%
***unders have been solid so far
Straight Up home team record: 33W - 26L 55.9%
***slight home field advantage