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Letdowns, revenge spotlight interesting picks
By Rich PodolskySpecial to ESPN Insider Thursday, October 2
Going against a team the week after a huge emotional game is never a bad proposition. Last week, 11 teams were coming off of highly emotional games the week before. Had you gone against those 11, regardless of the number, you would have won nine and lost two. This week, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Mississippi, Troy State, Colorado State, Cal, Purdue, Minnesota and Utah fit the description. We'll watch their results carefully.
Revenge is another good motive. Saturday, before a national TV audience, Texas has a chance to make up for its embarrassing loss on national TV to Arkansas. Kansas State, which is not the Kansas State we have known, is the unlucky visitor to Austin. The combination makes Texas our best play of the week. We also think the Miami Hurricanes and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will be celebrating early and often this week.
Thursday
Miami (-25½) over West Virginia: Miami should dominate in every phase of the game. The so-called "offensive problem" will disappear against West Virginia's young and inexperienced squad. Speed is the biggest difference. With a nine-day break before the Florida State game, we think Miami will keep its mind on business.
The play: Miami, two units up to 27½, one unit at 28 or higher.
Friday
Oregon (-3) over Utah: Like the pretty little girl with the pretty little curl, when Oregon is good it is very, very good, but when it is bad it is indeed horrid. As if last week's loss wasn't enough of a wake-up call, the Ducks get bulletin board material from former receiver Paris Warren (now with Utah), who said the Ducks weren't very good. But good enough to win it, we think. Oregon's great passing game will be too much for the Utes' mediocre pass defense.
The play: Oregon, one unit at 3 or less.
Saturday
Texas (-6) vs. Kansas State: This is just not that good a K-State team, with or without El Roberson. The defense is porous against the run, and we expect Texas to exploit what Marshall found easy pickings. Also, the Texas passing game will light up K-State. The Longhorns have too much speed, which should be the determining factor in the end.
The play: Texas, two units up to 7, one unit if over 7.
Auburn (-1) over Tennessee: Auburn is coming to hand just at the right time, after a very shaky start. Tennessee is coming off of two brutal games, defeating archrival Florida and just inching past South Carolina last week, in a game that left everyone sore and mentally exhausted. Can't see the Vols being nearly as ready as the Tigers here.
The play: Auburn, one unit.
Clemson (+7½) over Maryland: Clemson has improved each week since its opening loss to Georgia (no sin there). Maryland is a big question after losses to Northern Illinois and Florida State. Last week it struggled with 35-point underdog E. Michigan before pulling away late. And Terp RB Bruce Perry is again questionable. This smells like a game that won't be settled until the last two minutes.
The play: Clemson, one unit.
Oklahoma (-20½) over Iowa State: Iowa State got some bad news with the loss of RB Hiawatha Rutland for the season. Also, DT and team leader Jordan Carstans is doubtful. If he doesn't play or plays at half speed, it could be devastating. Last year the Sooners almost stumbled the week before the Texas game (vs. Missouri). Bob Stoops won't let that happen again. Look for a repeat of the 49-3 thrashing Oklahoma gave the Cyclones a year ago.
The play: Oklahoma, one unit.
Northwestern (+ 12) over Minnesota: Northwestern actually looked very good last Saturday losing at Ohio State, and had they made their two field goal tries, things could have really tightened up. The Wildcats run D was strong against the Buckeyes, which is what they'll need to hold off the Golden Gophers. Minnesota is coming off a huge win for them at Penn State and is looking ahead to Michigan next week. In the sandwich, Northwestern takes them down to the wire.
The play: Northwestern, one unit.
The specials
Outside of the Top 25, there are some unusual opportunities. For example, San Diego State getting its quarterback back, and Boise State finding out that Ruston, La., is one of those places that "you can't get to from here."
Texas Tech (-5) over Texas A&M: It's very simple. Texas Tech has one of the best passing games in the country. A&M has a very mediocre pass defense. Add in that the game is at 9 p.m. local time in Lubbock, Texas, and you have the ingredients of a home team party.
The play: Texas Tech, two units.
La. Tech (+ 8½) over Boise State: The La. Tech Bulldogs certainly have showed they can play, upsetting Michigan State. Two years ago they won this game and stayed close last year in Boise for a long time. Ruston, La., is one of those places you can't get to without a long plane flight and a five-hour bus ride. Last week Boise struggled with Wyoming. The Bulldogs will be ready after a week off to prepare, but will Boise State be ready after the trip from hell.
The play: La. Tech, one unit.
Eastern Michigan (+14½) over Western Michigan: Last week E. Michigan pulled to within 16-13 of Maryland in the third quarter. If they have anything left, they'll throw it all at this conference rival. Last year's game was a 33-31 win for Western Michigan. It could be that close again.
The play: Eastern Michigan, one unit.
San Diego State (-2½) over BYU: The Aztecs scared the heck out of Ohio State and played well in a 20-10 loss at UCLA last week. Now, at home against BYU, they get starting QB Adam Hall back (after missing four games). BYU's passing game appears to have gone on a mission. Defense will rule, but we can't see San Diego State losing this one.
The play: San Diego State, one unit.
Passing thoughts
Alabama QB Brodie Croyle will probably play despite a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, but can he possibly be near 100 percent? And can the Tide get up after another heartbreaking loss? Georgia, by the way, gets back its best blocking back, Tony Milton. If you don't mind giving 12 (which I do), it might not be that close. ... Miami-Ohio opened as a 21-point favorite over Akron. It's been #####ed down to 16. Sure Miami won't be as high after victories against Colorado State and state rival Cincinnati. And sure Akron has a potent offense. But did they forget about Akron's leaky defense and Miami's great air show? ... Arkansas State has beaten the number in its last six conference games and now has patsy UL Monroe coming to town, which didn't hire its coach until after spring practice. ... Fresno State gets starting QB Paul Pinegar back this week at Colorado State. The latter loses key LB Eric Pauley. With that addition and subtraction, Fresno +4 or 5 looks tempting. ... Tulsa seems to be getting good. Hawaii, which has demonstrated a distaste for the road, loses a key receiver. Line has dropped from 12½ to 9. Something's up. ... This is Temple's fourth road game in 35 days, but should Middle Tennessee State be giving points here? Or anywhere?
Last Week: 6-4, plus 4 units; Specials: 1-2, -1 unit.
Season: 28-16-2, + 14 units; Specials: 8-4-2, +5 units
Lines as of 3 p.m. ET, Thursday, Oct. 2.
By Rich PodolskySpecial to ESPN Insider Thursday, October 2
Going against a team the week after a huge emotional game is never a bad proposition. Last week, 11 teams were coming off of highly emotional games the week before. Had you gone against those 11, regardless of the number, you would have won nine and lost two. This week, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Mississippi, Troy State, Colorado State, Cal, Purdue, Minnesota and Utah fit the description. We'll watch their results carefully.
Revenge is another good motive. Saturday, before a national TV audience, Texas has a chance to make up for its embarrassing loss on national TV to Arkansas. Kansas State, which is not the Kansas State we have known, is the unlucky visitor to Austin. The combination makes Texas our best play of the week. We also think the Miami Hurricanes and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will be celebrating early and often this week.
Thursday
Miami (-25½) over West Virginia: Miami should dominate in every phase of the game. The so-called "offensive problem" will disappear against West Virginia's young and inexperienced squad. Speed is the biggest difference. With a nine-day break before the Florida State game, we think Miami will keep its mind on business.
The play: Miami, two units up to 27½, one unit at 28 or higher.
Friday
Oregon (-3) over Utah: Like the pretty little girl with the pretty little curl, when Oregon is good it is very, very good, but when it is bad it is indeed horrid. As if last week's loss wasn't enough of a wake-up call, the Ducks get bulletin board material from former receiver Paris Warren (now with Utah), who said the Ducks weren't very good. But good enough to win it, we think. Oregon's great passing game will be too much for the Utes' mediocre pass defense.
The play: Oregon, one unit at 3 or less.
Saturday
Texas (-6) vs. Kansas State: This is just not that good a K-State team, with or without El Roberson. The defense is porous against the run, and we expect Texas to exploit what Marshall found easy pickings. Also, the Texas passing game will light up K-State. The Longhorns have too much speed, which should be the determining factor in the end.
The play: Texas, two units up to 7, one unit if over 7.
Auburn (-1) over Tennessee: Auburn is coming to hand just at the right time, after a very shaky start. Tennessee is coming off of two brutal games, defeating archrival Florida and just inching past South Carolina last week, in a game that left everyone sore and mentally exhausted. Can't see the Vols being nearly as ready as the Tigers here.
The play: Auburn, one unit.
Clemson (+7½) over Maryland: Clemson has improved each week since its opening loss to Georgia (no sin there). Maryland is a big question after losses to Northern Illinois and Florida State. Last week it struggled with 35-point underdog E. Michigan before pulling away late. And Terp RB Bruce Perry is again questionable. This smells like a game that won't be settled until the last two minutes.
The play: Clemson, one unit.
Oklahoma (-20½) over Iowa State: Iowa State got some bad news with the loss of RB Hiawatha Rutland for the season. Also, DT and team leader Jordan Carstans is doubtful. If he doesn't play or plays at half speed, it could be devastating. Last year the Sooners almost stumbled the week before the Texas game (vs. Missouri). Bob Stoops won't let that happen again. Look for a repeat of the 49-3 thrashing Oklahoma gave the Cyclones a year ago.
The play: Oklahoma, one unit.
Northwestern (+ 12) over Minnesota: Northwestern actually looked very good last Saturday losing at Ohio State, and had they made their two field goal tries, things could have really tightened up. The Wildcats run D was strong against the Buckeyes, which is what they'll need to hold off the Golden Gophers. Minnesota is coming off a huge win for them at Penn State and is looking ahead to Michigan next week. In the sandwich, Northwestern takes them down to the wire.
The play: Northwestern, one unit.
The specials
Outside of the Top 25, there are some unusual opportunities. For example, San Diego State getting its quarterback back, and Boise State finding out that Ruston, La., is one of those places that "you can't get to from here."
Texas Tech (-5) over Texas A&M: It's very simple. Texas Tech has one of the best passing games in the country. A&M has a very mediocre pass defense. Add in that the game is at 9 p.m. local time in Lubbock, Texas, and you have the ingredients of a home team party.
The play: Texas Tech, two units.
La. Tech (+ 8½) over Boise State: The La. Tech Bulldogs certainly have showed they can play, upsetting Michigan State. Two years ago they won this game and stayed close last year in Boise for a long time. Ruston, La., is one of those places you can't get to without a long plane flight and a five-hour bus ride. Last week Boise struggled with Wyoming. The Bulldogs will be ready after a week off to prepare, but will Boise State be ready after the trip from hell.
The play: La. Tech, one unit.
Eastern Michigan (+14½) over Western Michigan: Last week E. Michigan pulled to within 16-13 of Maryland in the third quarter. If they have anything left, they'll throw it all at this conference rival. Last year's game was a 33-31 win for Western Michigan. It could be that close again.
The play: Eastern Michigan, one unit.
San Diego State (-2½) over BYU: The Aztecs scared the heck out of Ohio State and played well in a 20-10 loss at UCLA last week. Now, at home against BYU, they get starting QB Adam Hall back (after missing four games). BYU's passing game appears to have gone on a mission. Defense will rule, but we can't see San Diego State losing this one.
The play: San Diego State, one unit.
Passing thoughts
Alabama QB Brodie Croyle will probably play despite a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, but can he possibly be near 100 percent? And can the Tide get up after another heartbreaking loss? Georgia, by the way, gets back its best blocking back, Tony Milton. If you don't mind giving 12 (which I do), it might not be that close. ... Miami-Ohio opened as a 21-point favorite over Akron. It's been #####ed down to 16. Sure Miami won't be as high after victories against Colorado State and state rival Cincinnati. And sure Akron has a potent offense. But did they forget about Akron's leaky defense and Miami's great air show? ... Arkansas State has beaten the number in its last six conference games and now has patsy UL Monroe coming to town, which didn't hire its coach until after spring practice. ... Fresno State gets starting QB Paul Pinegar back this week at Colorado State. The latter loses key LB Eric Pauley. With that addition and subtraction, Fresno +4 or 5 looks tempting. ... Tulsa seems to be getting good. Hawaii, which has demonstrated a distaste for the road, loses a key receiver. Line has dropped from 12½ to 9. Something's up. ... This is Temple's fourth road game in 35 days, but should Middle Tennessee State be giving points here? Or anywhere?
Last Week: 6-4, plus 4 units; Specials: 1-2, -1 unit.
Season: 28-16-2, + 14 units; Specials: 8-4-2, +5 units
Lines as of 3 p.m. ET, Thursday, Oct. 2.