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I try to make plays in baseball with patience and an eye for value. Clearly, the most important single factor is projecting the statline for one or both of the starting pitchers.
I think there is unbelievable value in the Chicago Cubs tonight, and the prime reason is Brian Moehler. Brian Moehler is sporting a 1-0 record and 2 consecutive games started (against the inconsistent Dodgers and the consistently punchless Giants) in which he has provided a quality start.
I watched Moehler pitch a decent game against the Giants with a lot of flyball outs, and you realize that a ballpark like those in SF, LA, or SD might be a good fit for him. Enron Field is not and will never be.
Brian Moehler sports a career ERA of almost 5, and hitters in his career bat .300 against him. He's 36 now, and it's been 2 years since he was part of a rotation, and 4 years since he was an effective part of a rotation. In a smaller park, against a much better (and hotter offense) I expect him to get pounded tonight.
Expect the Cubs to trot out Jim Edmonds tonight who is 11-32 with 5 HR career against Moehler. Soriano is 4-7 and Derrek Lee is 1-2 with a HR as well. Brian Moehler is not going to finish the year in the Astros rotation, and this is exactly the type of game that will be the reason why.
The Astros are playing well at home and Berkman is hot, but Moehler is a timebomb, and the Cubs have the potential to be very explosive in this spot.
Cubs -128
CUBS RL +125
Cubs/OVER 9
Good luck all.
I think there is unbelievable value in the Chicago Cubs tonight, and the prime reason is Brian Moehler. Brian Moehler is sporting a 1-0 record and 2 consecutive games started (against the inconsistent Dodgers and the consistently punchless Giants) in which he has provided a quality start.
I watched Moehler pitch a decent game against the Giants with a lot of flyball outs, and you realize that a ballpark like those in SF, LA, or SD might be a good fit for him. Enron Field is not and will never be.
Brian Moehler sports a career ERA of almost 5, and hitters in his career bat .300 against him. He's 36 now, and it's been 2 years since he was part of a rotation, and 4 years since he was an effective part of a rotation. In a smaller park, against a much better (and hotter offense) I expect him to get pounded tonight.
Expect the Cubs to trot out Jim Edmonds tonight who is 11-32 with 5 HR career against Moehler. Soriano is 4-7 and Derrek Lee is 1-2 with a HR as well. Brian Moehler is not going to finish the year in the Astros rotation, and this is exactly the type of game that will be the reason why.
The Astros are playing well at home and Berkman is hot, but Moehler is a timebomb, and the Cubs have the potential to be very explosive in this spot.
Cubs -128
CUBS RL +125
Cubs/OVER 9
Good luck all.
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