Monday Trends and Indexes 05/19

[Udog]

MLB


Monday, May 19

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Hot Lines: Monday's best MLB bets
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San Francisco at Colorado (-140, 10 1/2)

This is the highest total the weak-hitting Giants have seen all season. They only average 3. 5 runs per game so their totals usually come in around eight runs or so and their O/U record is still 22-22-1.

But today Patrick Misch shares the hill with Jorge De La Rosa and the duo is currently working on a combined ERA that's getting dangerously close to 15.

Still, you have to think this total's pretty high. The books already boosted the juice up a nickel on the under and Colorado has played over just once over its last five.

Pick: under



Kansas City at Boston (-165, 9 1/2)

Kansas City's 3.84 runs per game average isn't going to scare many opposing pitchers, but the Royals have been putting some runs on the board lately. They've put at least seven on the board in three of their last four heading into the first game of this series in Boston.

Meanwhile the Red Sox just keep mashing with the best team batting average and OPS in the bigs. David Ortiz is starting to come around too and smashed a pair of dingers on Sunday.

Pick: over

[Udog]

MLB


Monday, May 19


Update

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Tips and Trends
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Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros [ESPN | 7:05 PM ET]

Cubs (-125, O/U 9.5): Ted Lilly is on a roll lately, winning four of his last five starts. His only loss over that span was a tough 2-0 defeat to the Nationals. In Lilly's last 32 innings pitched, he's allowed only 11 runs. The key to Lilly's turnaround has been control. In his last two wins, he's struck out 21 and walked just three. Because of his recent success, Lilly's ERA has dropped from 9.95 to 5.33.

Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 games as a favorite.
Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Astros: Brian Moehler will be making his third start of the year (all on the road) after two impressive performances against the Dodgers and Giants. In his 10 innings pitched as a starter, Moehler has given up just one walk and three runs, with Houston winning both games. This is the first time Moehler has been in a starting rotation since 2006, when he went a disappointing 7-11 with the Marlins.

Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 home games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Houston's last 9 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5



San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies [8:35 PM ET]

Giants: Patrick Misch is starting his fourth game of the season on Monday and the Giants are hoping things go better than they have in his previous three outings, all San Fran losses. Misch hasn't been awful, giving up 13 runs in 22 innings pitched. He's kept the Giants in every game he's started but all have resulted in close defeats. Misch, himself, hasn't factored into a decision yet this year and was 0-4 in four starts last season.

Giants are 1-10 in their last 11 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Rockies (-145, O/U 10.5): The Rockies haven't received much help from their starting rotation this season and Jorge De La Rosa heads the list of disappointments. In three starts, De La Rosa is 1-2 with an unacceptable 9.42 ERA. De La Rosa has actually performed worse at Coors Field, where his ERA jumps to 10.24. Not surprisingly, two of De La Rosa's three starts have easily gone over the total.

Rockies are 2-6 in their last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Colorado's last 8 Monday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (Side Play of the Day)



Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics [10:05 PM ET]

Rays(-115, O/U 7.5): James Shields has been a horse for the Rays, already logging 59 innings pitched this season. He's pitched two complete game shutouts in his last four outings. Shields is coming off a tough 2-1 loss to the Yankees, where he gave up just six hits and two runs in 7 1/3 innings of work. Take out one poor outing against the Red Sox and Shields hasn't given up more than three runs in any start this season.

Rays are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.
Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 6-2-1 in Tampa Bay's last 9 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

A's: Joe Blanton hasn't had much luck, or run support, for that matter in 2008. Blanton has allowed four runs or less in eight of his 10 starts but he's still just 3-6, although he does possess a respectable 3.69 ERA. Blanton's games have been a nightmare for over bettors, with seven of those contests coming in under the total. Blanton has only given up two runs in three of his last four starts, although he's just 1-2 over that span.

A's are 24-5 in the last 29 meetings at Oakland.
A's are 3-9 in Blanton's last 12 starts.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

[Udog]

MLB System Explores Interleague after affects

After a weekend of interleague play for all but Pittsburgh and Chicago, it is back to work for major league baseball teams, playing either in division or within the confines of their respective leagues. The affects of interleague have been known to boost or ultimately crush the hopes of more than one big league team. For Boston, they swept Milwaukee over the weekend, to raise interleague record to 43-14, +25.16 units and are back in first place in the American League East. Cincinnati, which has had one winning record against the AL since 1998, took all three from in-state rival Cleveland and is on six game winning streak.

Playing just three games against the other league in May can be a diversion, more like the feel of an exhibition game, than actually baseball that counts in the standings. The feel of the games are unusual also. Several matchup like the aforementioned Indians and Reds, are played before packed houses, with thousands of fans rooting for the visiting teams. Others, without natural rivalries, have the fans curiosity factor, adding more people to the ballpark, with large groups of fans seating together for the out-of-town clubs, creating a college football atmosphere within the ball-yard, with pockets of fans cheering for the visitor.

Moving ahead, an odd system has come up this month, relating to interleague play. For whatever reason, the home team either responds positively to being the club to take the field first or the road squad is unsettled in first foray after a different weekend experience. Whatever the reason, no denying the results.

PLAY ON home teams after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games.
Since uncovering this system, the results have been magnificent dating back to 2004. Home teams have flourished in next opening game with 36-8, 81.6 percent record, gathering +29.1 units of profit. What is even more amazing is the final score of these 44 encounters. The home team has won by an alarming two runs per game, opening up the possibility of reduced risk in higher money line situations at Sportsbook.com or other wagering outlets, by considering the run line if it makes sense.
In major league baseball action tonight, take a long look at Washington, San Diego, Oakland, Minnesota, L.A. Dodgers, Houston, Colorado and Boston. You might be rewarded handsomely for doing so.

[pm530]

Watch for Tueday's trends!