Monday Trends and Indexes 05/19

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, May 19

Good Luck on day #140 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

Six of the more unique minor league baseball team names.......

-- Albuquerque Isotopes, AAA, Florida

-- Montgomery Biscuits, AA, Tampa Bay

-- Lansing Lugnuts, Class A, Toronto

-- Winston-Salem Warthogs, Class A, White Sox

-- Casper Ghosts, Class A, Colorado

-- Savannah Sand Gnats, Class A, Mets

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend..........

13) Lee vs Volquez Sunday was first time since 1968 that game featured two starting pitchers with 6+ wins and ERAs of under 1.25. Drysdale vs Gibson was the matchup forty years ago.

12) Alfonso Soriano has seven HRs in his last seven games; Ryan Braun has eight homers in his last eight contests.

11) Texas Rangers are improved, hovering around .500, but if Ivy League whizkid GM Daniels hadn't traded pitchers Volquez Danks, Galarraga and San Diego's Young, wouldn't they be in a better position to contend in AL West? They[re depending on retreads Padilla and Ponson right now. Good luck.

10) Interleague play creates long rain delays, since teams make only one visit to a city; Phillies had a delay of 2:43, Orioles had a delay of 2:28. Game in Philly started at 1:10, ended at 7:30. It got so weird that Jays' ace Roy Halladay threw 2.1 scoreless innings in relief, more than both starters threw combined.

9) Edwin Jackson allowed one run in 21.1 IP in last three starts, but didn't win any of the three games.

8) White Sox trailed Giants 2-1 after five innings, but won 13-8, as Giant bullpen imploded, even after Bochy left starter Cain in too long. Could be long summer in San Francisco; aside from their starting pitchers, they have very few good players.

7) You have to hand it to Matt Vasgersian, the Padres play-by-play guy, he's building quite a resume. In addition to baseball and some NFL duties, he was the voice of the XFL and is also the voice of Heads Up Poker on NBC, an excellent poker show.

6) Its unbelievable that a team like the A's, a team that is very resourceful in getting more out of less, can't find anyone to bat leadoff. If they could find an offensive catalyst, they figure to stay in the race all summer, but they're running out of choices.

5) Peavy and Oswalt are both going to miss their next turn, the kind of injuries to key players that cripple a team. San Diego's season is already a disaster; this ain't going to help.

4) Calls for instant replay in baseball may pick up steam after a horrendous call in Bronx-Queens game Sunday night, when a home run by Carlos Delgado was called foul, after originally being called a homer. Replays showed the ball to be fair. How could the home plate umpire overrule the third base umpire? Isn't he 100 or 110 feet farther away?

3) We'll be at Siena College Saturday, Sunday for the Gym Rat basketball tournament, the third-largest event of its kind in the entire country. Not only is it a big event (three age groups at three different buildings) it is the best-run event we've been to. We'll have reports from the Gym Rat next Sunday, Monday.

2) First weekend of interleague play ended with the AL being a 22-19 leader; they went 10-8 at home, 12-11 on road. Over was 18-21-2 this weekend, 8-8-1 in AL parks, 10-13-1 in NL parks.

1) Want to hear something good about athletes? Tampa Bucs' RB Warrick Dunn has helped 77 families make down payments on homes. Stuff like that doesn't get enough publicity.

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet

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Monday, May 19
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LOS ANGELES (4 - 7) at CHICAGO (8 - 2) - 5/19/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games against American Conference, Central Division Opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against American Conference, Western Division Opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


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Monday, May 19
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Monday's Arena Football game

Los Angeles (4-7) @ Chicago (8-2)-- Chicago won last four in a row before its bye last week; they're 4-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite, with home wins by 23-35-24-3 points (they lost home game to Philly). Avengers lost last four away games by 24-35- 13-28 points; they're 0-4 vs spread as an underdog this season. Five of last seven LA games went over the total.

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Additional

AFL


Trend Sheet

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Monday, May 19
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8:00 PM LOS ANGELES vs. CHICAGO
Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, May 19

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Hot Pitchers
-- Lilly is 3-0, 3.60 in his last three starts. Moehler is 1-0, 2.70 in two starts this season.
-- Nationals won five of last seven Redding starts.
-- Wellemeyer is 2-0, 2.50 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-0, 0.60 in his last two starts.

-- Lester is 1-0, 2.84 in his last four starts. Hochever is 3-1, 2.52 in his last four starts.
-- Feldman has 2.79 RA in his last three starts.
-- Blanton has 2.84 RA in his last two starts, but A's are 1-5 in his home starts this season. Shields has 1.10 RA in his last two starts, but is 1-2, 7.37 in his last three road starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Myers is 0-3, 8.86 in his last four starts.
-- de la Rosa is 1-2, 9.42 in three starts this season.
-- Misch is 0-0, 6.19 in three starts (SF bullpen lost all three).
-- Ledezma allowed one run in four IP in his first '08 start (63 PT) at Atlanta, in game Padre bullpen later lost.
-- Penny is 0-2, 12.66 in his last two starts; he skipped start on Sunday due to some arm problem.

-- Bonser is 0-1, 9.56 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Astros are 12-4 in their last sixteen games, 8-1 in last nine at home. Cubs won four of last five, but are 3-7 in last ten on road.
-- Reds had a 6-0 homestand last week, but are 1-7 in last eight games on the road.

-- Red Sox won their last six home games. Royals won six of last seven games.
-- Rangers won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Rays are 8-3 in last 11 games, but lost last two.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games. Nationals are 5-8 in last thirteen games.
-- Giants lost six of their last seven games. Rockies lost six of their last eight games, but won last two.
-- Cardinals lost five of last six road games. San Diego lost four of its last five games.
-- Dodgers lost their last four home games.

-- Twins lost five of their last six games..
-- A's lost five of their last six games.

Totals
-- Under is 7-1-2 in Cubs' last ten away games.
-- Over is 6-3-2 in last eleven Washington games.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Colorado games.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Cincinnati road games went over total.

-- Five of last six Fenway games went over the total.
-- Last four Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Monday, May 19

We will update when projected scores are available.

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Tips and Trends
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Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros [ESPN | 7:05 PM ET]

Cubs (-125, O/U 10): Ted Lilly is on a roll lately, winning four of his last five starts. His only loss over that span was a tough 2-0 defeat to the Nationals. In Lilly's last 32 innings pitched, he's allowed only 11 runs. The key to Lilly's turnaround has been control. In his last two wins, he's struck out 21 and walked just three. Because of his recent success, Lilly's ERA has dropped from 9.95 to 5.33.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Astros: Brian Moehler will be making his third start of the year (all on the road) after two impressive performances against the Dodgers and Giants. In his 10 innings pitched as a starter, Moehler has given up just one walk and three runs, with Houston winning both games. This is the first time Moehler has been in a starting rotation since 2006, when he went a disappointing 7-11 with the Marlins.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies [8:35 PM ET]

Giants: Patrick Misch is starting his fourth game of the season on Monday and the Giants are hoping things go better than they have in his previous three outings, all San Fran losses. Misch hasn't been awful, giving up 13 runs in 22 innings pitched. He's kept the Giants in every game he's started but all have resulted in close defeats. Misch, himself, hasn't factored into a decision yet this year and was 0-4 in four starts last season.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Rockies (-135, O/U 10.5): The Rockies haven't received much help from their starting rotation this season and Jorge De La Rosa heads the list of disappointments. In three starts, De La Rosa is 1-2 with an unacceptable 9.42 ERA. De La Rosa has actually performed worse at Coors Field, where his ERA jumps to 10.24. Not surprisingly, two of De La Rosa's three starts have easily gone over the total.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics [10:05 PM ET]

Rays: James Shields has been a horse for the Rays, already logging 59 innings pitched this season. He's pitched two complete game shutouts in his last four outings. Shields is coming off a tough 2-1 loss to the Yankees, where he gave up just six hits and two runs in 7 1/3 innings of work. Take out one poor outing against the Red Sox and Shields hasn't given up more than three runs in any start this season.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

A's (-150, O/U 8.5): Joe Blanton hasn't had much luck, or run support, for that matter in 2008. Blanton has allowed four runs or less in eight of his 10 starts but he's still just 3-6, although he does possess a respectable 3.69 ERA. Blanton's games have been a nightmare for over bettors, with seven of those contests coming in under the total. Blanton has only given up two runs in three of his last four starts, although he's just 1-2 over that span.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet

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Monday, May 19
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SAN ANTONIO (63 - 30) at NEW ORLEANS (63 - 30) - 5/19/2008, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after scoring 85 points or less this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 207-165 ATS (+25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-8 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 12-6 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet

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Monday, May 19
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Western Conference
Second Round
Game Seven
Series Tied, 3-3
New Orleans at San Antonio, 8:05 ET

San Antonio:
6-15 ATS AWAY off a home win
3-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less

New Orleans:
11-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss
10-1 ATS off a DD road loss

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Monday, May 19

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NBA Games

Home team is 22-2 in this round of playoffs, 6-0 in this series; winner tonight takes on Lakers in Western Conference finals. So far in this series, Spurs lost in Big Easy by 19-18-22 points, getting crushed in second half of all three games. West left the last game with bad back after hard foul by Horry; his status is unsure, although he'd have to be crippled not to play. Is he at 100% though? Over is 7-4 in San Antonio playoff games.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA


Monday, May 19

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Tips and Trends
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San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets [TNT | 8 PM ET]

Spurs: Despite winning Game 6 last Thursday and enjoying some time off since then, San Antonio still has never won a series when down 0-2 and faces a big challenge on the road in Game 7. The Spurs were not a good road team down the stretch of the regular season, and you would think the extra rest would be good for an aging team like this. However, they are just 5-6 ATS with three days of rest or more while the much younger Hornets are 6-2 ATS. Still, the defending champs seem ready to go. "It’s a great test for both teams," San Antonio's Manu Ginobili said. "It’s going to be a really tense game with a lot of adrenaline. A lot of pressure, and we’re going to try to be the ones that respond to that pressure the best way."

Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
The OVER is 7-2 in San Antonio's last 9 games following an ATS win.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 89

Hornets (-4, O/U 182.5): New Orleans is unbeaten in six home playoff games so far, winning by an average margin of 16.7 points. The home team in this series has also won by an average of more than 18 points. There is some concern that such a young team that hasn't yet faced elimination in the playoffs could be tight, but forward David West is a veteran who believes he and his teammates will be ready. "The reason we fought out games throughout the regular season was to be able to have a Game 7 on your home floor," West said. "We’ve been able to do that, so we’ve got to take advantage of the opportunity we have."

Home team is 8-0 SU & ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings.

Key Injuries - F David West (20.6 ppg; back) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 93

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Gameday

NBA
Gameday


Monday, May 19

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Gameday
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Monday NBA Playoff Gameday

Chris Paul and the Hornets will be looking to finish off the defending-champion Spurs when the two teams meet in Game 7 action on Monday. Here is your playoff gameday:

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets, 8:30pm ET

How big of an advantage has home court been in this Western Conference second-round series? Well, the road team is a combined 0-6 in this best-of-seven set. New Orleans got things rolling with consecutive wins at home in Games 1 and 2, but San Antonio tied up the series with back-to-back wins on their own court in Games 3 and 4. A 101-79 blowout home win by the Hornets in Game 5 put them back in control of the series, but the Spurs responded with a 99-80 home victory in Game 6 on Thursday night. Manu Ginobili led the way for San Antonio with 25 points in that contest, while Tim Duncan picked up 20 points and 15 rebounds, and Tony Parker chipped in with 15 points. Paul had a team-high 21 points in the loss for New Orleans, while Tyson Chandler had 14 points. David West (sore back) is probable for the Hornets on Monday.

The oddsmakers like New Orleans' chances of knocking out San Antonio on Monday, as they were opened as 3.5-point home favorites. The contest's total opened at 182.5.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


If there is an update, we will re-post

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Monday, May 19
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DETROIT (65-25-0-7, 137 pts.) at DALLAS (55-36-0-8, 118 pts.) - 5/19/2008, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 11-6 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 11-6-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.8 Units)

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Monday, May 19

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2008 NHL playoffs

Dallas won last two games, allowing one goal in each, as they got back into series, now trailing 3-2; Stars are 5-3 at home in playoffs; under is 6-1-2 in their last nine playoff games. Wings had won nine games in row before the last two games; they're just 4-3 on road in playoffs. Lot of pressure on Detroit here, as Penguins await winner of series. Last NHL team to blow aa 3-0 series lead was way back in 1975.

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