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Before you read any analysis please note I have been having a very bad year so far in MLB. That being said I have two plays I looked at last night and after digging a little I love.
10 Unit GOYs
Atlanta -150
Arizona -140
Atlanta - Jair Jurrjens has been absolutely solid for Atlanta this year. Despite a 4-3 record, he has pitched amazingly to the tune of a 3.10 era and 1.09 WHIP. I was skeptical about the trade of Renteria for him, but now I see what they scouts saw. This kid is amazing.
I know Chipper is hurting a bit right now and yes that does worry me. I think he took last night off to rest and he should be back in the lineup tonight. That makes this offense even more potent.
At Home Atlanta is 14-4 on the year. As a home favorite they are 5-2 and they are 4-1 on Fridays so far this year. Yes a couple trends that are so so, but I like trends. I think that sometimes they are useful.
In their last 4 games, Atlanta has alternated wins and losses, losing last night to Cole Hamels who pitched brilliantly. Even with Chipper in the lineup, they would not have won last night. With being shutout last night, they have still scored 20 runs their last 4 games meaning they have been hitting the ball.
The only scary thing is that Atlanta is 7-10 against left handed starters. Even with this, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 1.96 era at home and I see a solid start against a weak Oakland offense who has put up 2 runs their last three games.
Dana Eveland who is starting for Oakland has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.247 WHIP. That can be a bit deceiving considering on the road he has a 4.88 ERA and a 1.374 WHIP.
Oaklands bullpen has been good so far, but they did lose one of their better guys last night in Santiago Casilla. I doubt he will be available for tonight and that will matter in a tight game.
All in all I see a 6-2 Atlanta win.
Arizona - It is finally time to jump off the Detroit bandwagon and onto the best team in baseball at the moment.
Lets get some more trends out there to back this play up.
Detroit is 2-7 after losing 3 of more games in a row.
5-18 when the total is 9-9.5
2-12 on the road when the total is 9-9.5
3-10 so far in May.
11-24 against righties.
Arizona is 18-6 when playing teams with losing records.
15-10 after 1 win.
6-2 after 3 or more consecutive wins.
12-4 when the total is 9-9.5
Jeremy Bonderman has pitched very well on the road so far, but against Arizona he is 0-2 lifetime with a 8.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Granted he has not played against Arizona in a few years, the last time he went to Arizona to pitch he gave up 8 runs in 2 innings.
Dan Haren has a 5.15 ERA against Detroit in his life, but in his last three starts against them he gave up 11 runs in 18 innings. At home this year Dan Haren is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.826 WHIP.
Arizona in general has been lights out at home and their bullpen is no joke either pitching to a 3.72 era at home. They average 6 runs per game at home and 5.7 off right handed starters.
I see another 6-2 type of game here as well with Arizona coming out on top.
Please take these for what they are - games that I like very very much and that I am playing quite large. Do not bet more than you can afford to lose if you choose to follow.
GL All!
10 Unit GOYs
Atlanta -150
Arizona -140
Atlanta - Jair Jurrjens has been absolutely solid for Atlanta this year. Despite a 4-3 record, he has pitched amazingly to the tune of a 3.10 era and 1.09 WHIP. I was skeptical about the trade of Renteria for him, but now I see what they scouts saw. This kid is amazing.
I know Chipper is hurting a bit right now and yes that does worry me. I think he took last night off to rest and he should be back in the lineup tonight. That makes this offense even more potent.
At Home Atlanta is 14-4 on the year. As a home favorite they are 5-2 and they are 4-1 on Fridays so far this year. Yes a couple trends that are so so, but I like trends. I think that sometimes they are useful.
In their last 4 games, Atlanta has alternated wins and losses, losing last night to Cole Hamels who pitched brilliantly. Even with Chipper in the lineup, they would not have won last night. With being shutout last night, they have still scored 20 runs their last 4 games meaning they have been hitting the ball.
The only scary thing is that Atlanta is 7-10 against left handed starters. Even with this, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 1.96 era at home and I see a solid start against a weak Oakland offense who has put up 2 runs their last three games.
Dana Eveland who is starting for Oakland has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.247 WHIP. That can be a bit deceiving considering on the road he has a 4.88 ERA and a 1.374 WHIP.
Oaklands bullpen has been good so far, but they did lose one of their better guys last night in Santiago Casilla. I doubt he will be available for tonight and that will matter in a tight game.
All in all I see a 6-2 Atlanta win.
Arizona - It is finally time to jump off the Detroit bandwagon and onto the best team in baseball at the moment.
Lets get some more trends out there to back this play up.
Detroit is 2-7 after losing 3 of more games in a row.
5-18 when the total is 9-9.5
2-12 on the road when the total is 9-9.5
3-10 so far in May.
11-24 against righties.
Arizona is 18-6 when playing teams with losing records.
15-10 after 1 win.
6-2 after 3 or more consecutive wins.
12-4 when the total is 9-9.5
Jeremy Bonderman has pitched very well on the road so far, but against Arizona he is 0-2 lifetime with a 8.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Granted he has not played against Arizona in a few years, the last time he went to Arizona to pitch he gave up 8 runs in 2 innings.
Dan Haren has a 5.15 ERA against Detroit in his life, but in his last three starts against them he gave up 11 runs in 18 innings. At home this year Dan Haren is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.826 WHIP.
Arizona in general has been lights out at home and their bullpen is no joke either pitching to a 3.72 era at home. They average 6 runs per game at home and 5.7 off right handed starters.
I see another 6-2 type of game here as well with Arizona coming out on top.
Please take these for what they are - games that I like very very much and that I am playing quite large. Do not bet more than you can afford to lose if you choose to follow.
GL All!
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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