Thursday Trends and Indexes 05/15

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Thursday, May 15

Good Luck on day #136 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

-- Cleveland starting pitchers have now thrown 43 scoreless innings in a row; hitting is way down all over major leagues.

-- .San Jose Sharks fired their coach despite having the most wins in NHL during last four years. The world has gone mad.

-- Penguins are just fourth NHL team to start playoff season by winning 11 of their first 12 games.

-- Houston Astros' assistant trainer has a bushy mustache that makes him look a lot like Yosemite Sam.

-- Jay Payton hit a dramatic grand slam off Okajima to give Baltimore a 6-3 win over the Red Sox. Spunky O's are 21-19.

-- Marlins trailed 6-0 in ninth inning at Cincinnati, tied game in ninth with wild rally, then lost in 10th when Paul Janish, in his first big league game, got game-winning hit for the Reds.

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[pm530]

Thursday's List of 13: Observations on the NBA playoffs

13) Why do teams play so much worse on the road, or is it that they play so much better at home? Why?

12) Do the playoffs have to include eight eastern teams, eight western teams? Shouldn't sub-.500 teams be barred from being in the playoffs, so that better teams can participate?

11) How tough is it for rookies at this time of year? 82 regular season games, as many as 28 playoff games, and there's also training camp........a college season is only 30-35 games.

10) How long before the Knicks trade for Leandro Barbosa?

9) How many specific tactical changes do teams make between playoff games? While a team might play four games in a week during regular season, they have three days between games in the playoffs, so there is time for actual practice, adjustments.

8) How has Jerry Sloan lasted so long coaching the Jazz? In a day and age where successful coaches are getting canned, he is an icon in Salt Lake City.

7) Wouldn't the NBA All-Star Game be more fun if it was USA against the World every other year?

6) Do you think OJ Mayo or Michael Beasley attended classes this semester? Are they still on campus, eating dorm food?

5) Is the NDBL developing coaches for the NBA the way the CBA did in the 80's? Phil Jackson, George Karl, Flip Saunders and Eric Musselman all coached in the CBA back then.

4) How will Greg Oden fare next year, after sitting out a whole season? He played just one year of college, and was hurt that season, or at least was recovering from wrist surgery.

3) How big a mess is the Cavalier franchise going to be if and when Lebron James bolts Cleveland for Nets or Knicks in '10?

2) Speaking of the Knicks, how long will it take D'Antoni and Walsh to clean up the toxic mess left over from the Isiah era?

1) I wonder what the other Lakers really think of number 24.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Thursday, May 15

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Hot Pitchers
-- Cardinals won last four Pineiro starts (2-0, 2.70).
-- Cubs are 5-0 in Dempster home starts, scoring 54 runs.
-- Astros won three of four Sampson road starts. Lincecum is 4-1, 2.33 in seven starts this season.
-- Phillies won last three Hamels starts, scoring 20 runs.
-- Miller is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
-- Arizona is 8-0 in Webb starts, scoring 31 runs in four starts at home. Colorado won last seven Cook starts (6-0, 2.39).

-- Laffey has 0.64 RA in his last two starts. Smith has 3.00 RA in his last four starts, but A's haven't scored in first six innings in any of his last three outings, getting shut out twice.
-- Tigers won four of last five Rogers starts, scoring 45 runs.
-- Kazmir signed big contract yesterday; he has 3.60 RA in his first two starts this season.
-- Vazquez has 2.53 RA in his last three starts. Garland is 1-0, 0.56 in last two starts; he is pitching against his old team for first time in this game.

Cold Pitchers
-- Billingsley is 2-5, 5.45 in seven starts this season. Sheets has 5.40 RA in his last three starts.
-- Mets lost last four Pelfrey starts (0-3, 6.75). Bergmann has a 10.45 RA in two starts, last of which was April 9.
-- Maddux is 0-3, 7.78 in his last three road starts.
-- Snell is 0-2, 6.06 in his last three road starts.
-- James is 0-2, 11.00 in two road starts.
-- Belisle is 1-2, 8.16 in three starts this season.

-- Perkins lost 5-2 to Boston in first '08 start (three runs/six IP).
-- Meche is 0-4, 9.00 at home this season.
-- Kennedy is 0-2, 8.71 in five starts; he made one excellent start in AAA before getting re-called to replace Igawa.


Hot Teams
-- Phillies won six of their last nine home games.
-- Cubs are 15-4 in their last nineteen home games.
-- Reds won five of their last six home games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last ten games
-- Astros won ten of last twelve games.

-- Indians won six of their last seven games; their starting P's have thrown 43 consecutive scoreless innings. .
-- Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games.
-- Twins won ten of last thirteen home games.
-- Royals won their last three games, allowing two runs.
-- Angels won six of their last nine home games.

Cold Teams
-- Braves lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Nationals lost six of their last nine games. Mets are just 6-7 in their last thirteen games.
-- Marlins lost last three games, allowing 20 runs.
-- Brewers are 6-13 in their last nineteen games. Dodgers lost five of their last six games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last eight games.
-- Padres lost 20 of their last 27 games.
-- Arizona is 6-8 in its last 14 games. Rockies lost ten of their last twelve road games.
-- Giants are 4-8 in their last twelve games.

-- Oakland lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Bronx is 7-11 in its last eighteen games.
-- Tigers lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Toronto is 5-10 in its last fifteen road games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last twelve road games.


Totals
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve Atlanta road games.
-- Over is 9-4-2 in Mets' last fifteen games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Florida's last six road games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Cub games.
-- Under is 12-5 in last seventeen games at Miller Park.
-- Over is 12-4 in last sixteen Pittsburgh road games.
-- Eight of last nine Colorado road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Houston road games.

-- Eleven of last twelve Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in McGowan starts this season.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Kansas City home games.
-- Six of last seven Bronx road games stayed under the total.
-- 10 of last 13 White Sox' road games stayed under total.

Umpires
-- LA-Mil-- Seven of eight Hickox games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-NY-- Over is 5-2-1 in Barksdale games this season.
-- Pitt-StL-- Underdog won four of last five Foster games; the under is 5-2 when he is behind the dish.
-- SD-Chi-- Six of last eight Knight games stayed under total.
-- Hst-SF-- Four of six Dreckman games stayed under the total.
-- Atl-Phil-- Favorite is 7-1 in Fletcher games behind plate.
-- Fla-Cin-- Over is 5-2-1 in Everitt games; dog is 4-2 in last six.
-- Colo-Az-- Vistor won six of eight Tschida games (faves 4-4)

-- A's-Clev-- Under is 6-1-1 in Miller games, with dog winning four of his last five games behind the dish.
-- Tor-Min-- Under is 6-2-1 in Reliford games.
-- Det-KC-- Seven of eight Layne games stayed under the total.
-- NY-TB-- Home side won six of last seven Scott games.
-- Chi-LAA-- Six of eight Meriwether games stayed under total.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Thursday, May 15

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Tips and Trends
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We will update when projected scores are available.


San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs [2:20 PM ET]

Padres: Emotions will be running high when Greg Maddux takes the hill at Wrigley Field, the place where he started his career. Maddux has had two poor starts for the Padres this season but his other six outings were all solid. As usual, Maddux' control has been phenomenal, as he's walked just eight batters in 50.0 innings of work. The future Hall of Famer has dominated his former team, going 12-3 with a 2.56 ERA in 22 career starts against the Cubbies.

Padres are 1-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 7-2 in San Diego's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Cubs (-145): Ryan Dempster is one of baseball's biggest surprises so far in 2008. A former relief pitcher, Dempster is 4-1 with a 2.76 ERA since entering the Cubs starting rotation. Dempster has gone into the sixth inning in all but one if his starts. His one problem has been walks. Dempster has put 23 batters on base in 49.0 innings of work this season. Dempster has been in a lot of high scoring affairs, with six of the eight games he's started going over the total.

Cubs are 18-6 in their last 24 games as a favorite.
Cubs are 5-13 in the last 18 meetings.
Cubs are 6-13 in the last 19 meetings at Chicago.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies [7:05 PM ET]

Braves: Chuck James has been far from a reliable starter for the Braves this season. In 19.0 innings pitched, James has given up 16 runs and 11 walks. James has been horrible on the road, losing both of his starts and sporting a robust 11.00 ERA away from home. On the bright side, James is 2-0 against the Phillies in his career, striking out 35 and walking only six in 35.1 innings of work.

Braves are 6-17 in their last 23 road games.
The UNDER is 17-6 in Atlanta's last 23 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Phillies (-180, O/U 9): Philadelphia is 3-0 is Cole Hamels last three starts. Over that span, Hamels has given up eight runs and struck out 18 batters in 20.1 innings. Hamels has been the Phillies bullpen best friend. He's gone at least 7.0 innings in seven of his eight starts. Hamels is only 2-2 at home this year but he does possess an impressive 2.80 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. The over is 6-2 in games Hamels has started this season.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks [9:40 PM ET]

Rockies: Aaron Cook has been a revelation for a struggling Colorado pitching staff this season. Cook is 6-1 with a minuscule 2.26 ERA in 2008. The Rockies have won seven of Cook's eight starts. That's pretty impressive when you consider Colorado has only won 15 games overall this season. Cook pitched at Arizona earlier in the year, getting the win after giving up just three runs in 6.0 innings of work. Cook has given up two runs or less in six starts, making the under 5-2-1 when he takes the mound.

Rockies are 2-10 in their last 12 road games.
Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Diamondbacks (-165, O/U 8): It's saying something when Cook is the second best pitcher in this game but that's the case with Brandon Webb on the mound for Arizona. Webb is looking like a CY Young frontrunner, winning all eight of his starts while giving up more than three runs only once. Webb's most recent outing was a complete game victory over the Phillies. Even though Webb is dominating opponents this season, each of his last two starts has gone over the total. Webb is 10-7 lifetime against Colorado with a 3.69 ERA.

Diamondbacks are 27-11 in their last 38 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels [10:05 PM ET]

White Sox (-115, O/U 8.5): The White Sox have stayed in contention this year thanks to strong starting pitching and Javier Vazquez has been a main contributor. With a record of 4-3 and respectable 3.63 ERA, Vazquez is proving to be a thorn in the side of AL hitters. One of Vazquez' biggest strengths is keeping the ball in play and trusting the defense around him to get outs. In 52.0 innings pitched, Vazquez has given up just three home runs and 12 walks. Vazquez has an impressive 2.95 ERA in three career starts versus the Angels.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Angels: Jon Garland makes his first appearance against the White Sox since being traded from Chicago to the Angels this summer. The Sox probably aren't too happy to see their old friend on the mound. After a slow start this season, Garland has been money in four of his last five starts. Take out a poor performance against the A's and Garland has only given up seven runs in his last 28.1 innings pitched. The over cashed in five of Garland's first six outings but his last two starts have easily gone under the total.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


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Thursday, May 15
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Note: When the long sheet is updated, we will re-post.


NEW ORLEANS (63 - 29) at SAN ANTONIO (62 - 30) - 5/15/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-8 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 11-6 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet

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Thursday, May 15
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Western Conference
Second Round
Game Six
New Orleans leads, 3-2
New Orleans at San Antonio, 8:00 ET

New Orleans:
18-9 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5
25-16 ATS after a DD win

San Antonio:
13-24 ATS off a road loss
3-10 ATS off a road loss against a division foe

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Thursday, May 15

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NBA Games

Hasn't been close game yet in Hornet-Spur series; 11 points is closest margin thus far. Losing side scored 84 points or less in four of five games, with last two staying under total, after first three series games went over. Home team is 19-1 in this round of playoffs, 5-0 in Hornet-Spur series, with New Orleans losing both games here by 11-20 points. In three games Hornets beat the Spurs, they crushed them in the second half.

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[pm530]

NBA


Thursday, May 15

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Trend Sheet
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9:00 PM NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN ANTONIO
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Antonio is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA


Thursday, May 15

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Tips and Trends
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We will update when projected scores are available.


New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs [ESPN | 9 PM ET]

Hornets: New Orleans has proven to be a good road team, going 27-18 SU and 25-18-2 ATS away from home. The Hornets also were able to win at Dallas in Game 4 of the first round, enabling them to clinch the series back at home in Game 5. With a 3-2 lead, the players know they have the luxury of playing Game 7 at home if needed but also would love to end this series as soon as possible. “We have got to find a way to play in San Antonio with the same kind of energy that we’ve played with at home,” New Orleans point guard Chris Paul said. “We weren’t very aggressive in the two games there.”

Hornets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
The OVER is 8-3 in New Orleans' last 11 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - C Tyson Chandler (11.8 ppg; bruised foot) is expected to play.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Spurs (-7.5, O/U 184): San Antonio is facing an elimination game for the first time since the 2006 playoffs, when they rallied back from a 3-1 deficit to tie the series with Dallas before losing Game 7. If the Spurs are able to win Game 6, they will have 3 days off to rest before Game 7 at New Orleans on Monday. However, this veteran San Antonio team is surprisingly just 4-5 ATS when playing with 3 days of rest or more while the young Hornets are 6-2 ATS. One thing the Spurs have on their side is that Hornets forward David West has not put back-to-back good performances together in this series. West is coming off a monster 38-point, 14-rebound performance but has averaged just 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in the 2 games at San Antonio

Spurs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The OVER is 8-3-1 in San Antonio's last 12 games overall.
The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings at San Antonio.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


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Thursday, May 15
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Note: When the long sheet is updated, we will re-post.


PITTSBURGH (58-28-0-8, 124 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (50-35-0-12, 112 pts.) - 5/15/2008, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 16-11 (+7.1 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 16-11-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
17 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+6.8 Units)

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[pm530]

National Hockey League - Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet

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Thursday, May 15
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Eastern Conference Playoffs
Conference Finals
Game Four
Penguins Lead, 3-0
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia, 7:35 ET

Pittsburgh:
11-1 SU as a # 2 seed in the playoffs
42-19 SU as a favorite

Philadelphia:
1-19 SU after BB losses by 2+ goals
0-11 SU revenging a loss where team scored 1 or less

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up

Thursday, May 15

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2008 NHL playoffs

Pittsburgh is just fourth-ever team to go 11-1 in first 12 playoff games; they held Philadelphia to just five goals so far in series, scoring four goals in all three games. Four of five Penguin road games stayed under in playoffs- Pittsburgh got blanked 3-0 in only game they lost. Flyers are 4-2 at home in playoffs; they've won four in row vs Canadiens, three in row vs Caps, so they're not totally without hope, but rallying from down 3-0 is rare.

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Colorado at Arizona
The Diamondbacks have won seven of eight from Colorado so far and come into today's contest with early Cy Young favorite Brandon Webb on the mound. But unsung Rockies starter Aaron Cook has been just as good with six straight wins, including road victories over Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum. Colorado is the underdog pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, MAY 15

Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.098; Milwaukee (Sheets) 15.737
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Bergmann) 15.024; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 16.135
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-165); Over

Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.608; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.020
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 957-958: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Maddux) 15.884; Cubs (Dempster) 15.457
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); N/A

Game 959-960: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Sampson) 14.883; San Francisco (Lincecum) 17.080
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Over

Game 961-962: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (James) 14.786; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.968
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-175); Under

Game 963-964: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Miller) 16.761; Cincinnati (Belisle) 15.848
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+100); Over

Game 965-966: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 16.165; Arizona (Webb) 14.956
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155); Under

Game 967-968: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Smith) 15.351; Cleveland (Laffey) 16.911
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (McGowan) 15.463; Minnesota (Perkins) 15.924
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Over

Game 971-972: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Rogers) 14.622; Kansas City (Meche) 15.837
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-105); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kennedy) 15.240; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 17.296
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Under

Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Vazquez) 15.901; LA Angels (Garland) 14.610
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Over

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel


New Orleans at San Antonio
Needing a win to stay alive in the series, the Spurs will look to take advantage of the Hornets' 2-7 ATS mark as road underdogs between 6 1/2 and 9 points. San Antonio is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, MAY 15

Game 527-528: New Orleans at San AntonioDunkel Ratings: New Orleans 122.669; San Antonio 131.884
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 186
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Over