Monday Trends and Indexes 05/12

[Udog]

MLB


Monday, May 12


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Hot Lines: Monday's best MLB bets
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Houston at San Francisco (+115, 7 1/2)

Barry Zito's last start, after a short demotion to the bullpen, was something he could build upon at least. He still lost to fall to 0-7 on the year, but he struck out five and allowed just two runs over five innings. That's a lot better than the 13 runs he gave up over two starts that lead to him getting bounced from the rotation.

Still, it doesn't get any easier for Zito today as he squares off against a hot Houston club with ace Roy Oswalt taking the hill. You can still find some 7 1/2-run totals on the board if you look around, which seems low for this matchup.

Pick: over



Seattle at Texas (-105, 9)

Everybody expected big things from Erik Bedard when he jumped ship from Baltimore to join the Mariners after two solid seasons with the Orioles. He hasn't disappointed, posting a 1.99 ERA through five starts, though he could use some run support. Seattle managed just a single run to help his cause over his last two outings.

Meanwhile, Vincente Padilla is absolutely scorching for the Rangers. He's working on a 0.42 ERA over three games since he was pounded for seven earned runs over three innings against Detroit last month.

Pick: under

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Monday, May 12th

National League

Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 3:35 ET
Tim Hudson (R) vs. John Van Benschoten (R)
Hudson : ATL 4-13 in AWAY games
Van Benschoten : PIT 60-43 at Home when the total is 9 to 9.5

Washington at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Odalis Perez (L) vs. Nelson Figueroa (R)
Perez : WAS 67-53 when the total is 9 to 9.5
Figueroa : NYM 11-18 as a home favorite of -150 to -175

Florida Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 ET
Burke Badenhop (R) vs. Aaron Harang (R)
Badenhop : FLA 11-4 AWAY when the total is 8.5 to 10
Harang : CIN 12-27 in May games

San Diego at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET
Randy Wolf (L) vs. Carlos Zambrano (R)
Wolf : SD 3-10 following a win
Zambrano : CHI 7-1 after a win by 2 runs or less

St. Louis at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Dave Bush (R)
Wainwright : STL 55-46 following a loss
Bush : 4-14 TSR against NL Central

Houston at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Roy Oswalt (R) vs. Barry Zito (L)
Oswalt : HOU 8-1 in May
Zito : SF 19-34 after having won 2 of their last 3

American League

Boston at Minnesota, 7:05 ET
Clay Buchholz (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Buchholz : BOS 12-1 as a favorite of -125 to -175
Hernandez : 12-1 OVER following a win

Toronto at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Shaun Marcum (R) vs. Cliff Lee (L)
Marcum : 7-0 TSR as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Lee : CLE 3-8 as a home favorite of -150 or more

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Andy Pettitte (L) vs. Matt Garza (R)
Pettitte : 16-25 TSR in the first half of the season
Garza : TB 18-5 revenging 2 straight home losses

Seattle at Texas, 8:05 ET
Erik Bedard (L) vs. Vicente Padilla (R)
Bedard : 9-1 TSR AWAY when the money line is +125 to -125
Padilla : TEX 14-5 OVER after a loss

Chicago White Sox at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Mark Buehrle (L) vs. Nick Adenhart (R)
Buehrle : CHI 7-2 against the Angels
Adenhart : LAA 53-30 UNDER after a loss

Write-In Games

Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 12:35 ET
Jair Jurrjens (R) vs. Zach Duke (L)
Jurrjens : ATL 4-11 AWAY when the total is 8.5 to 10
Duke : PIT 60-43 home when the total is 9 to 9.5

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians, 4:05 ET
A.J. Burnett (R) vs. Fausto Carmona (R)
Burnett : TOR 0-8 against Cleveland
Carmona : 6-1 TSR this season

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB


Monday, May 12


Update

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins [ESPN | 7:05 PM ET]

Red Sox (-140, O/U 9.5): The Red Sox haven't had much success with Clay Buchholz on the mound this season, losing 5 of his 7 starts. Buchholz has really struggled away from Fenway Park, going 0-2 on the road with an ERA of 7.40. Buchholz is coming off a poor performance against the Tigers on May 4th, giving up 5 runs and 10 hits in just 4 innings of work. Buchholz will take the mound versus the Twins on Monday for the first time in his career.

Red Sox are 2-12 in their last 14 games on field turf.
Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Twins: Livan Hernandez has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He's 5-1 with a 3.83 ERA and Minnesota has won 7 of Hernandez's 8 starts. The veteran has gone at least 7 innings 5 times this year and is coming off a complete-game gem in which he gave up just 1 run versus the White Sox. After a rough outing against Texas on April 27th, Hernandez has given up just 2 runs in his last 16 innings pitched.

Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings at Minnesota.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4



San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs [8:05 PM ET]

Padres: After starting the season off strong, Randy Wolf has struggled of late. Wolf gave up just 7 runs in his first 4 starts but has allowed 12 in his last 3 outings, all Padres losses. Wolf is putting too many people on base recently, giving up 14 hits and 7 walks in his last 2 starts. Wolf has been involved in a lot of low-scoring games, with 6 of his 7 starts going UNDER the total.

Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win.
Padres are 6-18 in their last 24 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Cubs (-200, O/U 7.5): Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano since is off to the hottest start of his career with a 5-1 mark and 1.80 ERA, and he has enjoyed a lot of success against the Padres. Zambrano is 4-1 lifetime vs. San Diego with a 1.94 ERA and a perfect 3-0 at Wrigley Field this season with a 1.59 ERA. He also got an extra day of rest after Sunday's game was delayed due to rain, forcing a scratched start.

Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite.
Cubs are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings.
Cubs are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings at Chicago.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5



St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers [8:05 PM ET]

Cardinals (-125, O/U 8.5): Adam Wainwright is one of the Cardinals best pitchers so far in 2008 thanks in large part to an impressive 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Wainwright has faced the Brewers twice already this year, giving up just four runs in 14.2 innings of work. The Cardinals were victorious in both meetings. Wainwright has reached the seventh inning in all but one of his starts this year and the under has cashed all seven times he's taken the mound.

Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.
The OVER is 7-3 in St. Louis' last 10 Monday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side Play of the Day)

Brewers: Dave Bush has been a horror show for the Brewers this season but opposing batters are more than happy to see him take the hill. Bush is winless so far in 2008, while sporting a robust 6.98 ERA. Bush is just 1-4 against the Cardinals in his career with an ERA close to 7.00. Amazingly, despite all of Bush's struggles this year, 5 of his 6 starts have gone UNDER the total.

Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Milwaukee's last 10 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3



Chicago White Sox at LA Angels [10:05 PM ET]

White Sox (-110, O/U 9): Chicago's Mark Buehrle has clearly struggled this season, and it won't get any easier against the Angels. Buehrle is just 1-4 this year with a 5.31 ERA, and he will be facing an LA squad that just got swept at Tampa Bay. The really bad news is that Buehrle is only 1-4 lifetime against the Angels with a 4.48 ERA.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Chicago's last 11 road games.
The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Angels: LA rookie Nick Adenhart will make his third career start back at home, hoping for better results than the first time around. Adenhart surrendered 5 runs on 3 hits and 5 walks in just 2 innings against Oakland at home back on May 1st in an eventual 15-8 loss. He walked 5 batters again in his second start at Kansas City, but the Angels were able to rally from a 3-0 deficit for a 5-3 victory.

Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 Monday games.
The UNDER is 7-1 in LA's last 8 games following a loss.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in LA's last 13 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 6

[Udog]

NBA


Monday, May 12


Update

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers [TNT | 8 PM ET]

Celtics: It's only a matter of time before Boston gets that first road victory in the playoffs, right? The Celtics have been the most dominant team in the postseason at home but haven't been able to earn a victory on the road despite going an NBA-best 31-10 away from TD Banknorth Garden during the regular season. "We can't spot a team 15-20 points and try to dig ourselves out of it," Boston forward Kevin Garnett Garnett said. "We talked about that in the locker room, that we need to play with the same urgency like we have at home. We can definitely play better, and we will."

Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The UNDER is 15-5 in Boston's last 20 Monday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 90

Cavs (-2, O/U 182): Cleveland fans have to still be concerned about star LeBron James, who has yet to put together a good shooting game in the series. James is shooting 13-for-58 (22 percent) in the 3 games so far and has not scored more than 21 points. He scored less than 27 points just once in 6 games against Washington in the first round, but guard Delonte West doesn't believe it's a problem. "That's why it's a team game," he said. "That's why you have teammates you trust," West said. "Here in this locker room, he brings the attitude. He brings the attitude like we're all in this together. And I think it's good to have his back for a change since he has ours so many nights."

Cavs are 5-2 SU & ATS in the last 7 meetings.
The UNDER is 16-5 in Cleveland's last 21 home games.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Cleveland's last 8 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - F Anderson Varejao (6.7 ppg; 8.3 rpg) is listed as questionable for Game 4 tonight with a bruised right knee.

PROJECTED SCORE: 92