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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
HOW TO EXPLOIT THE ODDSMAKER DEFENSE MECHANISMS
I talked about this some last week. But, I realized the topic of oddsmaker "defense mechanisms" could become a very important theme in the next few weeks. It's deserving of a full article so you can take advantage in both basketball and baseball.
What do I mean by "defense mechanism?" That's when a line is adjusted before any money has come in...on the assumption that the money is going to come in.
This was most obvious with all of those medium favorites in Game Three of the NBA first round playoffs.
Toronto was a 4-point favorite at home against Orlando even though they had been 6-point underdogs on the road.
Dallas was a 6-point favorite at home against New Orleans even though they had been 4-point underdogs on the road.
Phoenix was a 7-point favorite at home against San Antonio even though they had been a 4-point underdog on the road in Game One of the series.
Denver was a 2-point favorite at home against the LA Lakers even though they had been 8-9 point underdogs on the road.
Utah was a 9-point favorite at home against Houston even though they had been one-point underdogs on the road.
The lines in those cases moved 10 points or more, when something along the 6-7 range would have made more sense. We saw smaller moves in Washington/Cleveland (Wizards moving from +2 to -5), Atlanta/Boston (Celtics moving from -15 to -8 or -9), and in Philadelphia/Detroit (Pistons moving from -10 to -5).
The oddsmakers expected money coming in on the reversals because so many bettors like taking teams who are coming off a loss...and they REALLY like home teams who are down 2-0 in a series. They figure they'll get a very strong outing from the home team, and a flat effort from the visitor.
One of the biggest line adjustments I've ever seen though came between games three and four in the Lakers/Nuggets series.
Game Three: Denver -2
Game Four: Lakers -4.5
That's a 6.5 point move in the same court! The oddsmakers knew everyone was going to bet the Lakers because it looked like Denver had given up. Also, the Lakers are the "home" team in Nevada. Many California teams have a big local backing in the Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks. You know that if you've ever been out here during football season or March Madness. The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers are the home teams in the NFL (there isn't a pro football team in LA). UCLA gets more backing than UNLV does during college hoops. In the NBA, Kobe Bryant might as well be the mayor of Las Vegas.
Sportsbooks made that six point line adjustment, yet the Lakers still covered Game Four anyway!
I want to make sure you're understanding the difference here. These aren't cases where sportsbooks are opening their lines in the same places...then the lines move because money is coming in heavily on one side. In all the examples I mentioned above, the lines moved before opening. Based on their vast experience in the industry, oddsmakers knew what was going to happen with the early money if they just posted the same opener. They made a pre-emptive strike to discourage that money, and to protect their own bottom lines.
And, that bottom line is that money that used to be won by sharps now isn't being bet!
Strategies that used to work great in the NBA playoffs have been neutered to a significant degree because what had been a truly horrible of oddsmaking has been fixed. Sportsbooks aren't one-sided on the wrong team nearly as often as they used to be.
I mentioned baseball up at the top. It does happen in this sport as well. Sportsbooks often make these pre-emptive strikes when the big money franchises are playing well.
The New York Yankees have been overpriced by about 20-30 cents per game for years. They're due to get hot again soon, if they ever get everyone healthy. That will happen again once they start winning. The Yankees will be -200 or -220 when -170 or -190 is the right number.
Same story with the Boston Red Sox. They were expensive on their last homestand, but kept on winning anyway until the pitching staff caught the flu. Oddsmakers know the public wants to bet on these teams, and they stack the line to take away value. The difference here is that it's a pre-emptive strike against public money in baseball. In the baskets, it's a strike against both the public and the sharps.
What can you do to make money when the lines are moving against the teams you want to bet? Here are some ideas:
Don't bet those teams any more! It's hard enough to pick winners against fair lines. If the numbers have moved against you a couple of points because of a pre-emptive strike, you're just not getting value. Sure, the Dallas Mavericks covered an inflated number anyway. Phoenix didn't. Toronto covered an inflated number against Orlando. Denver lost badly in a similar situation. Washington was 5-point favorites in both games at home against Cleveland. They won the first game by 32 points, but lost the second outright. These line moves have turned winning situations into 50/50 propositions for the most part. When the linesmakers are doing their job well, you have to pass.
Look for smart spots to go against the move. That can be tough in the NBA playoffs because you're playing mind games with the players. Will the leading team show up the way San Antonio did in Game Three at Phoenix (before having it's flat outing in Game Four)? Is the trailing team starting to implode the way Denver was in its four-game sweep at the hands of the Lakers. You can't just bet tendencies any more. But, you can successfully bet based on your knowledge of the teams.
Make your own numbers. I constantly encourage people to do this. It's a great way to stay on top of teams and developments. And, it helps you see very clearly when the oddsmakers are making one of these pre-emptive strikes. Let's say you pass a third game because you don't want to buck history, but you don't want to play against an inflated line either. What about Game Four? Your grading on New Orleans (+) at Dallas would make sense in Game Four because you're know longer dealing with a home team down 2-0 playing its best game of the year. Your grading on Cleveland (+) at Washington is another example. The teams are even, or Cleveland's a little better. That would yield a line of Washington -2.5 or -3. They were 5-point favorites in that fourth game when the emotional edges had been spent already.
Follow the public teams closely in baseball. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are known to go through long stretches where they're just treading water. You can't play at championship form for 162 games over six months. In their best years, these teams tend to do that for about 60 games over a couple of months...maybe 90 games over three months. The rest of the time, you can make big money by going against them at the big underdog prices.
Also in the baseball, look for non-public teams who are playing championship ball. Arizona was hot out of the gate this year. It took forever for the lines to catch up. St. Louis had a year like this a few seasons back. Seattle made a run at 120 wins one season, but they were priced as a 90-win team until late. It's a funny thing about baseball. The oddsmakers are looking to play defense against the public money on the public teams, but they completely miss other teams they should be defending against!
You often hear sharps lamenting that the lines keep getting better every year. It used to be easy to make money as a sports gambler. Now, it's so hard many guys are trying to make a living at poker! Well, I've been on both sides of the fence. I do think the lines are better than they used to be. This aggressiveness to move the lines before money has come in is one of the reasons why. That doesn't mean the lines are unbeatable however. It just means that you have to work harder to find the gifts!
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
HOW TO EXPLOIT THE ODDSMAKER DEFENSE MECHANISMS
I talked about this some last week. But, I realized the topic of oddsmaker "defense mechanisms" could become a very important theme in the next few weeks. It's deserving of a full article so you can take advantage in both basketball and baseball.
What do I mean by "defense mechanism?" That's when a line is adjusted before any money has come in...on the assumption that the money is going to come in.
This was most obvious with all of those medium favorites in Game Three of the NBA first round playoffs.
Toronto was a 4-point favorite at home against Orlando even though they had been 6-point underdogs on the road.
Dallas was a 6-point favorite at home against New Orleans even though they had been 4-point underdogs on the road.
Phoenix was a 7-point favorite at home against San Antonio even though they had been a 4-point underdog on the road in Game One of the series.
Denver was a 2-point favorite at home against the LA Lakers even though they had been 8-9 point underdogs on the road.
Utah was a 9-point favorite at home against Houston even though they had been one-point underdogs on the road.
The lines in those cases moved 10 points or more, when something along the 6-7 range would have made more sense. We saw smaller moves in Washington/Cleveland (Wizards moving from +2 to -5), Atlanta/Boston (Celtics moving from -15 to -8 or -9), and in Philadelphia/Detroit (Pistons moving from -10 to -5).
The oddsmakers expected money coming in on the reversals because so many bettors like taking teams who are coming off a loss...and they REALLY like home teams who are down 2-0 in a series. They figure they'll get a very strong outing from the home team, and a flat effort from the visitor.
One of the biggest line adjustments I've ever seen though came between games three and four in the Lakers/Nuggets series.
Game Three: Denver -2
Game Four: Lakers -4.5
That's a 6.5 point move in the same court! The oddsmakers knew everyone was going to bet the Lakers because it looked like Denver had given up. Also, the Lakers are the "home" team in Nevada. Many California teams have a big local backing in the Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks. You know that if you've ever been out here during football season or March Madness. The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers are the home teams in the NFL (there isn't a pro football team in LA). UCLA gets more backing than UNLV does during college hoops. In the NBA, Kobe Bryant might as well be the mayor of Las Vegas.
Sportsbooks made that six point line adjustment, yet the Lakers still covered Game Four anyway!
I want to make sure you're understanding the difference here. These aren't cases where sportsbooks are opening their lines in the same places...then the lines move because money is coming in heavily on one side. In all the examples I mentioned above, the lines moved before opening. Based on their vast experience in the industry, oddsmakers knew what was going to happen with the early money if they just posted the same opener. They made a pre-emptive strike to discourage that money, and to protect their own bottom lines.
And, that bottom line is that money that used to be won by sharps now isn't being bet!
Strategies that used to work great in the NBA playoffs have been neutered to a significant degree because what had been a truly horrible of oddsmaking has been fixed. Sportsbooks aren't one-sided on the wrong team nearly as often as they used to be.
I mentioned baseball up at the top. It does happen in this sport as well. Sportsbooks often make these pre-emptive strikes when the big money franchises are playing well.
The New York Yankees have been overpriced by about 20-30 cents per game for years. They're due to get hot again soon, if they ever get everyone healthy. That will happen again once they start winning. The Yankees will be -200 or -220 when -170 or -190 is the right number.
Same story with the Boston Red Sox. They were expensive on their last homestand, but kept on winning anyway until the pitching staff caught the flu. Oddsmakers know the public wants to bet on these teams, and they stack the line to take away value. The difference here is that it's a pre-emptive strike against public money in baseball. In the baskets, it's a strike against both the public and the sharps.
What can you do to make money when the lines are moving against the teams you want to bet? Here are some ideas:
Don't bet those teams any more! It's hard enough to pick winners against fair lines. If the numbers have moved against you a couple of points because of a pre-emptive strike, you're just not getting value. Sure, the Dallas Mavericks covered an inflated number anyway. Phoenix didn't. Toronto covered an inflated number against Orlando. Denver lost badly in a similar situation. Washington was 5-point favorites in both games at home against Cleveland. They won the first game by 32 points, but lost the second outright. These line moves have turned winning situations into 50/50 propositions for the most part. When the linesmakers are doing their job well, you have to pass.
Look for smart spots to go against the move. That can be tough in the NBA playoffs because you're playing mind games with the players. Will the leading team show up the way San Antonio did in Game Three at Phoenix (before having it's flat outing in Game Four)? Is the trailing team starting to implode the way Denver was in its four-game sweep at the hands of the Lakers. You can't just bet tendencies any more. But, you can successfully bet based on your knowledge of the teams.
Make your own numbers. I constantly encourage people to do this. It's a great way to stay on top of teams and developments. And, it helps you see very clearly when the oddsmakers are making one of these pre-emptive strikes. Let's say you pass a third game because you don't want to buck history, but you don't want to play against an inflated line either. What about Game Four? Your grading on New Orleans (+) at Dallas would make sense in Game Four because you're know longer dealing with a home team down 2-0 playing its best game of the year. Your grading on Cleveland (+) at Washington is another example. The teams are even, or Cleveland's a little better. That would yield a line of Washington -2.5 or -3. They were 5-point favorites in that fourth game when the emotional edges had been spent already.
Follow the public teams closely in baseball. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are known to go through long stretches where they're just treading water. You can't play at championship form for 162 games over six months. In their best years, these teams tend to do that for about 60 games over a couple of months...maybe 90 games over three months. The rest of the time, you can make big money by going against them at the big underdog prices.
Also in the baseball, look for non-public teams who are playing championship ball. Arizona was hot out of the gate this year. It took forever for the lines to catch up. St. Louis had a year like this a few seasons back. Seattle made a run at 120 wins one season, but they were priced as a 90-win team until late. It's a funny thing about baseball. The oddsmakers are looking to play defense against the public money on the public teams, but they completely miss other teams they should be defending against!
You often hear sharps lamenting that the lines keep getting better every year. It used to be easy to make money as a sports gambler. Now, it's so hard many guys are trying to make a living at poker! Well, I've been on both sides of the fence. I do think the lines are better than they used to be. This aggressiveness to move the lines before money has come in is one of the reasons why. That doesn't mean the lines are unbeatable however. It just means that you have to work harder to find the gifts!
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