Thursday Trends and Indexes 05/01

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Thursday, May 1

Good Luck on day #122 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

-- Fred Lewis' diving catch in top of 8th inning preserved 3-2 Giants' lead, and showed why they're better team without a guy named Bonds; they've gotten younger, they catch ball better, and they actually seem to have enthusiasm. Hmmmm.

-- Cliff Lee moved to an unlikely 5-0, 0.98 as Indians won 8-3 against Seattle. Where would the Indians be without him?

-- Bronx Bombers put Phil Hughes on DL Wednesday; only thing injured on Hughes is his pride. He was awful in April.

-- Arizona sent P Owings up to pinch-hit in 6th inning, down 7-5, and Houston changed pitchers. When was last time you saw team change pitchers when another pitcher was up? By the way, Owings hit first pitch for a game-tying home run.

-- Avery Johnson got fired Wednesday, as Mark Cuban is learning you can't buy a championship. Johnson won 73.5% of his games and gets fired? This is getting ridiculous.

-- Don't look now, but Tigers are two games out of first place.

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[pm530]

Thursday's List of 13: Running the bases in the AL..........

Orioles-- Drew only 11,588 for Tuesday night game with Rays that was for first place in AL East; I know its April, but this is a team that is 10-5 at home, has some real good younger players (Markakis-Roberts-Jones) and is showing signs of actual life. Once upon a time, Baltimore was a terrific baseball town.

Red Sox-- Reporter actually asked Doc Rivers Monday night in his press conference, after Celtics lost, what he would say to Boston fans, seeing as Red Sox had lost five in a row and the Celtics just lost? What idiot reporter would mention the Sox? Rivers, being a nice guy, smiled and said, "Don't jump."

White Sox-- Carlos Quentin leads AL with .433 OB%, but first four guys in their lineup Tuesday night were hitting .222/.225/ .216/221. Lefty pitcher Danks has 0.93 WHIP in his five starts; batters are hitting just .196 against him, .163 vs Gavin Floyd. Swisher is hitting just .222, while Ryan Sweeney is hitting .254 in Oakland and Gio Gonzalez is getting ready for A's in AAA.

Indians-- First place in AL Central is at 14-12, last place is 12-15 so wide-open division. Sabathia is 1-4, 7.88, but Cliff Lee is 5-0, 0.96; batters are hitting .109 against him. Indians and Padres, at 7-9, have lost most home games of any teams in major leagues. Hafner was hitting .226 thru Monday-- Tribe needs better.

Detroit-- Host Boston, Bronx for seven games from May 5-11, interesting test. Not to pick on Texas Rangers, but Galarraga is 2-0, 1.50 with 0.72 WHIP in three starts, and where did Detroit get him? From the pitching-rich (or not) Rangers. After a putrid start, Detroit is just two games out of first place.

Kansas City-- Closer Soria is 6-6 in saves, allowing only three hits in 10 IP. Do Royal pitchers need to throw inside more? So far, they've hit league-low three hitters, but also walked just 77 hitters, 2nd-lowest in AL. Greinke is 3-0, 1.25, Bannister is 3-3, 4.04; other three starters all have ERAs of 5.25 or worse.

LA Angels-- I once traded Chone Figgins for Jose Reyes in my fantasy league, and felt good about it; well, Figgins' OB% is a stout .414, Reyes' is .307 Ugh. They're 6-0 in when Saunders is on hill, but opponents are hitting .336 against Jon Garland-- it is fair to say Garland's better days are behind him, as he threw 857.2 innings over last four seasons.

Minnesota-- Hitters have drawn 58 walks, 13 less than any club in AL, but they're tied for AL lead with 27 steals. Gomez was a big part of Santana trade; he is hitting .265 walking twice in 104 PA, not exactly what you're looking for in a leadoff hitter. Even Delmon Young has drawn six walks- he doesn't take pitches.

Bronx-- Figure Alex Rodriguez misses 15 games while he is on the DL; he makes $28M in '08, which works out to $172,839.50 every game ($19,204 an inning). In his time on DL, ARod earns $2,592,592.50. Not bad pay for getting your quad better. MLB is charging minimum of $100 for Home Run Derby. Terrific.

Oakland-- A's have team ERA of 3.11; next-best ERA in league is Tampa's 3.76; is this a great country or what? Eveland, Smith are two of the guys Arizona traded to Oakland for Haren; they are 5-3 combined, both with WHIPs under 1.22. Eric Chavez is now on the 60-day DL, meaning he'll earn $11M for doing zilch. A's have hit nine triples, four more than anyone else in AL.

Seattle-- .323 OB% is 12th in 14-team AL; Ichiro is hitting .261 in his first full season since signing a big contract-- he had 177 doubles, 57 triples in his first seven years with Seattle; he has only three doubles, two triples so far this season. Surprised to see coming into this season, Richie Sexson had .263 career BA.

Tampa Bay-- Pitching coach Hickey deserves credit for putting together a staff that has 3.76 ERA, without Kazmir throwing a single pitch- he did throw 81 pitches in rehab start for Durham Monday, so he should pitch in Fenway this weekend. Only 15 days until 1-year anniversary of Rocco Baldelli's last sighting.

Texas-- Josh Hamilton leads AL in RBI, is 14th in OB%, but he played no baseball from 2003-5, then had 50 AB in Class A ball in '06, 40 AB in AA last year, and now he's a star? That said, it is inconceivable that the Rangers traded a pitcher to get him. They've allowed 287 hits in 240 IP, with an ERA of 5.48. Yuk.

Toronto-- What a train wreck this season has been; after they dump Frank Thomas, he goes to A's for minimum salary, hits cleanup for first-place team. Halladay tosses four CGs in a row, but Jays lose the last three. They're 11-17, but pitchers struck out second-most hitters in AL, have 4th-best ERA.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Thursday, May 1

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Hot Pitchers
-- Zambrano is 3-0, 1.14 in his last three starts. Gallardo has 0.64 RA in two starts, both Milwaukee losses.
-- Wolf is 2-1, 3.68 in five starts this season.
-- Perez is 0-1, 2.50 in his last three starts.

-- Burres is 3-1, 2.58 in four starts; he hasn't allowed a run in his last 13.2 IP.
-- Greinke is 3-0, 1.50 in five starts this season.
-- Byrd is 1-0, 2.89 in his last three starts.
-- Wakefield is 2-0, 4.65 in five starts this season.
-- Duchscherer is 1-1, 2.70 in two starts this season.

Cold Pitchers
-- Kuroda is 0-2, 5.32 in his last four starts. Badenhop is 0-2, 7.80 in three starts this season.
-- Eaton is 0-0, 5.08 in five starts this season.
-- Duke is 0-2, 8.44 in his last three starts.

-- Garza has 7.62 RA in his first three starts for Tampa Bay.
-- Ponson gave up five runs in 5.1 IP in his first '08 start.
-- Batista is 2-3, 5.44 in five starts this season.
-- Robertson is 0-3, 6.91 in five starts this season. Kennedy is 0-2, 9.00 in four starts this season.
-- Burnett is 1-1, 7.15 in his last four starts.
-- Adenhart has been dominating the PCL, is big prospect for Angels. This is his first big league start.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won seven of their last ten games.
-- Dodgers won their last five games.
-- Cubs won ten of last twelve games at home. Brewers won four of their last six road games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.

-- Tigers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Orioles won ten of last fourteen home games. Rays won seven of their last eight games.
-- Angels are 9-4 in last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Padres lost eleven of last fourteen games.
-- Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last fourteen games. .

-- Seattle lost five of its last seven games. Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Bronx lost five of their last seven games.
-- Toronto lost eight of their last nine games. Red Sox scored four runs in their last four games.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight road games. Rangers are 3-9 in their last twelve games.
-- A's lost last two games, scoring total of three runs.

Totals
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Dodger games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Zambrano starts this season.
-- Four of five Eaton starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-4 in last sixteen Pirate games.

-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Baltimore home games.
-- Last seven Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Cleveland games.
-- Eight of eleven Bronx home games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Angel home games.

Umpires
-- LA-Fla-- Home side won all five Barksdale games.
-- Mil-Chi-- Under is 3-1 in last four O'Nora games, with dog 4-0 in those games.
-- SD-Phil-- Favorite is 10-3 in last thirteen Iassogna games.
-- Pitt-Wash-- No idea who the umpire for this game will be.

-- TB-Balt-- Four of five Foster games stayed under the total.
-- KC-Tex-- Underdog won four of five TWelke games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Three of last four Vanover games went over.
-- Det-NY-- Underdog is 4-2 in last six Reed games.
-- Tor-Bos-- Underdog won three of last four Davis games.
-- A's-LAA-- Visitor won four of five Runge games.

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[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, May 1

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Trend Sheet
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12:10 PM LA DODGERS vs. FLORIDA
LA Dodgers are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Florida
LA Dodgers are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games on the road
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 5-10 SU in their last 15 games when playing LA Dodgers


12:35 PM TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Baltimore's last 23 games
Baltimore is 10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games at home


2:05 PM KANSAS CITY vs. TEXAS
Kansas City is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Texas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home


2:20 PM MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 16-7 SU in their last 23 games
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games


7:05 PM DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Detroit


7:05 PM SAN DIEGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
San Diego is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games


7:05 PM SEATTLE vs. CLEVELAND
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


7:05 PM TORONTO vs. BOSTON
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games


7:10 PM PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Washington
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Washington is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games


10:05 PM OAKLAND vs. LA ANGELS
Oakland is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet

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Thursday, May 1
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DETROIT (62 - 25) at PHILADELPHIA (42 - 45) - 5/1/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 9-7 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 11-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet

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Thursday, May 1
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Eastern Conference
Opening Round
Game Six
Detroit Leads, 3-2
Detroit at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET

Detroit:
8-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or less BB games
16-5 ATS Away off DD win

Philadelphia:
2-5 ATS if total is 179.5 or less
26-15 Over off BB Unders

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Thursday, May 1

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NBA Game

Philly's guards shot 8-27 from floor in Game 5 loss; this series would already be over had Detroit held on to 51-38 lead at the half in Game 1. Teams split pair in this building; Sixers won by 20 in Game 3, then led 46-36 at half in Game 4, before Pistons rallied with 57-38 second half that turned series in their favor. Detroit shot 58% in Game 4; looks like Flip can breathe easier.

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[pm530]

NBA


Thursday, May 1

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Trend Sheet
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8:00 PM DETROIT vs. PHILADELPHIA
Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Detroit

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


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Thursday, May 1
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PITTSBURGH (54-27-0-8, 116 pts.) at NY RANGERS (46-30-0-14, 106 pts.) - 5/1/2008, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 14-13 (+3.7 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 14-13-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
16 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.9 Units)

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DETROIT (61-23-0-7, 129 pts.) at COLORADO (48-34-0-9, 105 pts.) - 5/1/2008, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 13-2 (+10.1 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 13-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.4 Units)

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[pm530]

National Hockey League - Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet


Thursday, May 1st

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Eastern Conference Playoffs
Second Round
Game Four
Pitsburgh leads, 3-0
Pittsburgh at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET

Pittsburgh:
5-12 SU off division win
4-9 SU at NY Rangers

NY Rangers:
25-8 SU at home if the total is 5.5
11-2 SU revenging home loss

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Western Conference Playoffs
Second Round
Game Four
Detroit Leads, 3-0
Detroit at Colorado, 10:05 ET

Detroit:
12-2 SU Away off road win
45-15 SU off win

Colorado:
2-13 SU vs. Detroit
1-6 SU at home vs. Detroit

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Thursday, May 1

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2008 NHL playoffs

Penguins are 7-0 in playoffs this spring; they scored five goals on just 17 shots in Game 3, as Rangers outshot Pittsburgh by 39-17 margin, but lost again, as Pens scored two goals on the power play in just 4:49 with man advantage. Rangers were 0-5 on pwer play (8:46 with man edge); they're 1-17 on power play in series, while Penguins are 4-13.

Detroit is 7-0 vs Avalanche this season, winning first three in this series by 4-3/5-1/4-3 scores. Red Wings scored in seven of nine periods in series, are 5-19 on power play. Colorado threw 33 shots on goal in Game 3, after 21-20 in first two, but Detroit had 19 shots in first period, grabbed 2-1 lead and now have 3-0 lead, and are 7-2 so far this postseason.

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[pm530]

NHL


Thursday, May 1

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Trend Sheet
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7:00 PM PITTSBURGH vs. NY RANGERS
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games when playing NY Rangers
NY Rangers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Rangers last 6 games


10:00 PM DETROIT vs. COLORADO
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games at home

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Pittsburgh at Washington
The Nationals have won five of their last six and will send left-hander Odalis Perez out to face a Pittsburgh team that is just 2-8 against lefties. Washington is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Nats favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, MAY 1

Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.712; Florida (Badenhop) 14.949
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.953; Cubs (Zambrano) 16.522
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); N/A

Game 955-956: San Diego at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Wolf) 14.204; Philadelphia (Eaton) 15.367
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.470; Washington (Perez) 15.865
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.176; Baltimore (Burres) 16.622
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.083; Texas (Ponson) 14.206
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+130); Over

Game 963-964: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Batista) 15.481; Cleveland (Byrd) 15.865
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-155); Under

Game 965-966: Detroit at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 15.926; NY Yankees (Kennedy) 15.772
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Under

Game 967-968: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burnett) 13.237; Boston (Wakefield) 15.799
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

Game 969-970: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 17.015; LA Angels (Moseley) 16.556
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Udog]

NBA


Thursday, May 1

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Pick 'n' Roll: Thursday's best NBA bets
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Detroit at Philadelphia (+5, 178)

Not many people actually believe that the Sixers are the better team in this series, but the way the Pistons have played at times, their intensity has been rightfully brought into question.

Of course, there was the Game 1 incident with Rasheed Wallace playfully peering in to the Sixers' huddle at a crucial moment of the game. That move prompted TNT's Magic Johnson to question the Pistons' focus and intensity. And there have been at various low points for the Pistons throughout the series since then.

"At some points, we've been lackadaisical," Saunders said. "That's not taking anything away from the Sixers because they play hard all the time. Sometimes, we match their challenge and sometimes we don't."

But things seem to have changed for the better in Detroit. The veteran lineup seems to have finally woken up and realized they'll have to fight for this series. For example, there was no music blaring from the Pistons' locker room before Game 5; instead the players were watching a replay of the previous game and going over their game plan.

On top of that, Chauncey Billups has finally asserted himself. The Pistons have so many All Stars, it's hard to determine sometimes who needs to step up and take control. Wallace was having trouble against Samuel Dalembert, Rip Hamilton couldn't get his shot off. Finally, they decided to rotate screens to get the ball to Billups and let him use his size to drive to the basket and create open shots for teammates.

Billups has 39 points and 19 assists over the last two games and the Pistons have two wins.

Pick: Pistons