Monday Trends and Indexes 04/28

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, April 28

Good Luck on day #119 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

Final observations from the NFL Draft.........

-- ESPN's "second team" of analysts was huge upgrade over the first team; Cris Carter, Ron Jaworski were very good.

-- Jaworski's film analysis teaches me lot about X's and O's of the NFL. His segments were the highlight of the day.

-- Buffalo drafted a cornerback from Auburn- Reggie Corner.

-- Hard to believe the Dolphins are 7-25 last two years; they are going to have their fourth coach in five seasons in '08.

-- With all the work Mel Kiper does and as sharp as he is, it would be nice if they let him talk more. He is a freakin' expert, after all. They had some physical therapist talking on injuries (she is very pretty, by the way) and a sportswriters' panel on for 10 minutes every half hour. Way too much.

-- When Tennessee drafted a DE from Winston-Salem, Trey Wingo pointed out that the NFL didn't have the kid listed in its draft preview, but Kiper had the kid listed. He's the best.

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a busy sports weekend

13) Don't look now, but Baltimore-Tampa series that starts on Tuesday at Camden Yards is for first place in AL East. Tampa Bay won last six games, sweeping Boston this weekend.. It is not an overstatement to say Sunday's win was single greatest moment in franchise history. Seriously.

12) Rays' reliever Scott Dohmann was winning pitcher in both Friday, Saturday night games; he threw two pitches Friday and six more Saturday, retiring both batters he faced.

11) Jorge Posada is on DL for first time in his 14-year career, an amazing stat for a catcher. Gary Sheffield has on DL 11 times, and he plays lot easier position than catching.

10) We're seeing managers go little longer with their starting pitchers, if bullpen is tired; James Shields, Paul Maholm both had 98-pitch CGs Sunday. Adam Wainwright had a 126-pitch CG in Saturday's win over the Astros.

9) I've been an A's fan since 1965 and I'm totally baffled that in 2008, this group of A's has their first winning April in last five seasons. Happily baffled, but baffled nonetheless. Looking at why this is happening, they are getting tremendous pitching, even with Rich Harden hurt (again). Timely hitting, they catch the ball well, but not much speed, not much power. Baffling.

8) Siena alum John Lannan is on fire for the Nationals; he has allowed one run in his last twenty innings on the hill.

7) Adam Scott drained a 48-foot putt to beat Ryan Moore in a playoff at the Byron Nelson tournament in Dallas. Moore looks a little bit like John Belushi in Animal House.

6) Barry Zito's nightmare continues; the wealthy but skidding lefty gave up six runs in first inning Sunday, losing 10-1 to the Reds at home. Giants are now 0-6 in his starts.

5) John Smoltz' grandfather was a groundskeeper in Detroit at the old Tiger Stadium; Tigers traded Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander way back in 1987. Bad trade, but Alexander did help Detroit make the playoffs in '87.

4) Mavericks, Suns both made big moves in response to when Lakers stole Pau Gasol from Memphis; now both teams are in huge 3-1 deficits, and looking pretty poor. Sometimes the best move you make is the one you don't make.

3) UCLA lost two QBs to injuries Saturday, with Cowan gone for season already. Football is a violent game, even in spring.

2) Total tickets sold for Sunday's fifteen major league games was 517,127, an average of 34,442 a game. Mets had biggest crowd, with 53,487; Kansas City had smallest, 13,998.

1) Tampa Rays are tied for first and Scott Kazmir has yet to toe the slab this season. Could it be? It would be nice to see them at least get a home field edge as far as fan support goes. Most games they've ever won in a season is 70-- that mark should be topped this season. Interesting to see how long they contend.

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet

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Monday, April 28

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DALLAS (7 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 0) - 4/28/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after playing a game on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


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Monday, April 28
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Monday's Arena Football game

Dallas (7-0) @ Philadelphia (8-0)-- Desperadoes come off a bye having won all three road games, last two by combined total of five points. Philly is 4-0 at home, winning by 21-21-8-8 points. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Philly games, 5-2 in Dallas contests. Soul was down 33-14 at half in San Jose two weeks ago, rallied to beat defending champs to stay unbeaten. Since Jerry Jones owns Dallas team, and Eagle fans hate Cowboys, expect that to translate over to this battle of unbeatens.

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[pm530]

AFL


Trend Sheet

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Monday, April 28
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8:00 PM DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, April 28

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Hot Pitchers
-- Santana is 2-0, 3.21 in his last couple starts. Pirates won four of Snell's five starts this season.
-- Wellemeyer is 2-0, 1.50 in two home starts.
-- Sampson is 1-0, 2.63 in two road starts this season.
-- Haren is 3-0, 1.69 at home this season.

-- Cabrera is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts. Vazquez is 3-1, 3.91 in his last four starts.
-- Gaudin is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple of starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Arroyo is 0-3, 9.00 in five starts this season.
-- Morales has 8.40 RA in his last three starts. Giants lost four of Cain's first five starts (0-2, 8.83).

-- Laffey comes up from AAA to replace injured Westbrook; last year, Indians were 7-2 in his starts. Mussina is 2-3, 4.45.
-- Garland has 7.66 RA in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won five of last six home games.
-- Reds won three of their last four road games; they scored 20 runs in their last two games. Cards won three of last four tilts.
-- Astros won six of their last eight games. .
-- Diamondbacks are 9-2 at home.

-- White Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Indians won seven of last ten games.
-- Oakland won seven of its last nine games. Angels won four of last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Giants lost four of their last five home games. Rockies lost seven of last eight games.

-- Orioles are 4-7 in their last eleven road games.
-- Bronx lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Ten of last fourteen Pirate games went over the total. Nine of last thirteen Met games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-1 in Reds' last seven road games.
-- Over is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Arizona games.
-- Over is 12-5 in last seventeen Colorado games.

-- Under is 8-3 in Baltimore road games.
-- Three of last four Indian games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Angel home games.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Monday, April 28

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox [2:05 PM ET]

Orioles: Daniel Cabrera seems to finally be living up to his pedigree. The 26 year-old’s career has been filled with ups-and-downs, and right now it is way up. Cabrera is 2-0 with a 4.40 ERA on the season, but even more importantly his team is 5-0 in his starts. The right-hander has allowed just 5 runs over his last 3 starts, which ****** over 20 innings of work. He is 2-3 with 5.25 ERA in his career against the White Sox.

The UNDER is 12-4 in the Orioles last 16 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

White Sox (-150, O/U 9): Javier Vazquez is coming off his worst showing of the season, getting rocked for 6 runs in over 5 innings of work against the Evil Empire. However, the right-hander did enter that contest 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA, and has struggled against the Yankees in his career. Vazquez has been a master at controlling the strike zone with 30 strikeouts compared to just 9 walks. The veteran is 6-2 with a 5.24 ERA in his career against the Orioles.

White Sox are 8-2 in Vazquezs' last 10 starts.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)



New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians [ESPN | 7:05 PM ET]

Yankees: Mike Mussina bounced back from 2 rough outings against the Red Sox last time out, earning the win allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings against the White Sox. The right-hander had a lofty 5+ road ERA last season and once again is climbing towards the 5’s on just 2 starts this season. The crafty veteran is 11-9 with a 4.78 ERA in his career against the Indians.

The UNDER is 17-8 in the Yankees last 25 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Indians (-110, O/U 10.5): Aaron Laffey has been called up to make his first start of the season in the Majors. Laffey went 4-2 with a 4.56 ERA with the Indians in 2007 over 9 starts. The right-hander has been even more effective this season while pitching in the minors, going 13-4 with a ERA in the high 2’s. The 23-year old hasn’t faced the Yankees in his career.

Indians are 25-10 in their last 35 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 6



Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants [10:15 PM ET]

Rockies: Franklin Morales hasn’t been able to live up to his opening day start. The south-paw allowed just 2 hits to the D-Backs in that opener, but has gotten clubbed for 14 runs over 3 starts thereafter. Morales’s lone career appearance against the Giants wasn’t a memorable one: 5 ER over 3 IP.

Rockies are 8-3 in Morales' last 11 starts.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Giants (-110, O/U 7.5): Matt Cain earned his first victory of the season last time out against the Padres, as he allowed just 1 earned run over 7 innings of work. Cain said he felt “comfortable” in San Diego, and did hold a respectable 3.48 ERA in 17 home starts las season. The right-hander allowed just 1 run over 7 innings in his last home appearance against these Rockies.

Giants are 10-30 in Cains' last 40 starts.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet

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Monday, April 28
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TORONTO (42 - 44) at ORLANDO (55 - 31) - 4/28/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
ORLANDO is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
ORLANDO is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
ORLANDO is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TORONTO is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 10-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-6 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (68 - 17) at ATLANTA (38 - 47) - 4/28/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-6 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-6 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (60 - 25) at DENVER (50 - 35) - 4/28/2008, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
LA LAKERS are 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games this season.
LA LAKERS are 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
LA LAKERS are 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
LA LAKERS are 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA LAKERS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 11-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet

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Monday, April 28th
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Eastern Conference
Opening Round
Game Five
Orlando Leads, 3-1
Orlando at Toronto, 7:35 ET

Toronto:
1-8 ATS off BB Unders
5-16 ATS off DD Home loss

Orlando:
18-5 ATS after playing game as an underdog
14-5 ATS off BB road games

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Eastern Conference
Opening Round
Game Four
Boston Leads, 2-1
Boston at Atlanta, 8:00 ET

Boston:
24-9 ATS Away off SU loss
27-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Atlanta:
18-27 ATS as an underdog
20-8 Over at home vs. Atlantic Division

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Western Conference
Opening Round
Game Four
LA Lakers Lead, 3-0
LA Lakers at Denver, 10:30 ET

LA Lakers:
14-1 ATS Away if total is 210 or higher
11-0 Over if attempting to close out a playoff series

Denver:
10-2 Over at home off BB ATS losses
2-11 ATS vs. LA Lakers

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Monday, April 28

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NBA Games

Toronto tries to stay alive by winning in arena where they lost first two games in series by 1-14 points; Orlando made 11-29 in Game 4 from arc, after being combined 15-58 in Games 2-3- they were 13-29 in Game 1. Bosh went nuts in Game 4, but none of his teammates scored more than 12 points. Raptors were 2-15 from arc in Game 4, after being 32-83 in first three games.

Hawks got on board with 102-93 win Saturday, getting 27 from Josh Smith; they made 10-18 from the arc in Game 3, after being 3 for 19 from arc in first two games combined. Hawks shot 38% in both losses, improved to 47% Saturday. Celtics scored just 37 points in second half of Game 3, after averaging 51.2 in first five halves of series.

It would be nice if Denver would at least make Lakers break a sweat in this series; they lost first three games by 14-15-18 pts, allowing 128-122-102 points (117.3 ppg). It came out yesterday that George Karl is returning to Nuggets next year, not sure if that helps or hurts. At this point, it can't get worse for them. If Nuggets have an ounce of pride, Game 4 will be a dogfight.

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[pm530]

NBA


Monday, April 28

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Trend Sheet
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7:30 PM TORONTO vs. ORLANDO
Toronto is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


8:00 PM BOSTON vs. ATLANTA
Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games


10:30 PM LA LAKERS vs. DENVER
LA Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Denver
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA


Monday, April 28

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Tips and Trends
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Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic [NBA | 7:30 PM ET]

Raptors: Coach Sam Mitchell said his team has to win one game at a time: “There’s nothing brilliant I can say except that we have to focus.” Toronto lost Game 2 by just a basket in Orlando and Chris Bosh said “It’s not over. We have to show up and we have to play.” The Magic shot 11-for-29 from beyond the arc to win Game 4, while the Raptors were just 2-for-15 in what was the determining factor in the outcome. Toronto has covered the point spread just once this season (Game 2) against the Magic in Orlando.

Raptors are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 98

Magic (-7.5, O/U 203): The Magic are one victory away from advancing into the second round of the NBA playoffs for the first time since 1996. However, they aren’t celebrating just yet. The uneasiness is because history has not been kind to the Magic in the playoffs. They held a 3-1 over the Detroit Pistons in 2003 when they lost the final three games of the series, and the last playoff success they had was in 1996 - during the Shaquille O’Neal/Penny Hardaway era. Orlando is 27-16 at home this season while going 24-16-3 ATS.

Magic are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 105



Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks [TNT | 8 PM ET]

Celtics (-9, O/U 190): Game 3 was even at the half, and it remained that way when Kevin Garnett hit two free throws with 6:31 left in the third quarter. But the Hawks finished that period with a 16-6 run and never trailed again. The Celtics fell away from their team concepts when things got tough. “That’s just not our character,” said coach Doc Rivers. “We haven’t done it.” Boston is 9-2 SU and ATS after a loss this season to an Eastern Conference opponent.

Celtics are 48-20-1 ATS in their last 69 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 100

Hawks: The Hawks waited until Game 3 to put together a concerted and aggressive effort, and the Celtics did not respond to it well. Josh Smith had 27 points and Joe Johnson added 23 as Atlanta moved to within 2-1 in the first-round series with a fairly comfortable win Saturday night at home. "We're not satisfied," said Johnson, “We have another one to get.” The Hawks pushed their home mark to 26-16, but Game 3 was just their second cover on the season against the Celtics and first victory.

Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 90



Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets [TNT | 10:30 PM ET]

Lakers (-4.5, O/U 227.5): The Lakers discouraged the Denver Nuggets with a Saturday domination at the Pepsi Center to take a 3-0 lead in their first-round series. “We made them take a lot of tough shots,” said Lakers center Pau Gasol, who had 14 points and three blocks. “We played good defense even though we gave up a lot of offensive rebounds.” The Lakers are 7-0 ATS against the Nuggets in the last 7 meetings, and are now also 8-0 when holding their opposition to 89 or fewer points.

Lakers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.

Key Injuries - F Ronny Turiaf (7 ppg; throat) is probable to play, but in limited mins.

PROJECTED SCORE: 118 (Side Play of the Day)

Nuggets: In the waning moments of Saturday’s game, the song, “You Dropped a Bomb on Me” blared out of the loudspeakers at the Pepsi Center. It was appropriate since the Los Angeles Lakers had just dropped a bomb on the Nuggets’ season. “We quit,” said Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony. “Everybody. From the coaches to the players, we quit.” The Nuggets have dropped the 3 games of this series by an average margin of 16 points. Allen Iverson was reportedly upset at being benched for the final 10:49 of Saturday’s game as well. Denver hasn’t covered a game against Los Angels since April of 2007.

Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against the Pacific.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 109

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association - Gameday

NBA
Gameday


Monday, April 28

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Gameday
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The Boston Celtics will be looking to bounce back from an unexpected loss when they take on the Atlanta Hawks in playoff action Monday night. Here's your NBA Gameday:

Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET

It could be the last game of the season for the Raptors on Monday, as they trail the Magic 3-1 in the best-of-seven series heading into Game 5 in Orlando. Toronto actually got back into this series last Thursday with a 108-94 win at home (with T.J. Ford scoring a team-high 21 points), but Orlando extended their advantage once again with a 106-94 road victory on Saturday. Rashard Lewis picked up 27 points and 13 rebounds for the Magic in their Game 4 win, while Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard poured in 19 points apiece. Howard also had a game-high 16 rebounds. Chris Bosh did everything he could for the Raptors in the loss, scoring a game-high 39 points and adding 15 boards.

The oddsmakers seem to like Orlando's chances of closing out this series on Monday night, as they opened as 7.5-point home favorites. The game's total opened at 202.5.


Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, 8:00pm ET

Someone forgot to tell the Hawks that they were supposed to quickly go away in their first-round series against the mighty Celtics. After dropping the first two games of their best-of-seven series by large margins in Boston, the Hawks bounced back with a big 102-93 home win over the Celtics in Game 3 on Saturday. Josh Smith had a team-high 27 points to go along with nine rebounds for Atlanta in that win, while Joe Johnson was good for 23 points, and Al Horford picked up 17 points and 14 boards. Mike Bibby contributed 12 points and eight assists to the win. Kevin Garnett had a game-high 32 points and 10 rebounds in a losing cause for Boston, and Paul Pierce scored 17 points.

Despite the Game 3 loss the Celtics are still the oddsmakers' choice in this series, as they opened as 9-point road favorites to get a Game 4 victory. The total opened at 190.


Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET

The Nuggets have been completely dominated by the Lakers so far in their first-round series, and Monday could be their final opportunity to show that they have some life in them. Denver lost the first two games of the seven-game set 128-114 and 122-107 in Los Angeles, and things didn't get much better when they returned home for Game 3 on Saturday as they fell 102-84. Kobe Bryant had a team-high 22 points for the Lakers in that win, while Derek Fisher and Pau Gasol each picked up 14 points. Lamar Odom tossed in 12 points and added seven rebounds on the night. Carmelo Anthony led the Nuggets' attack with 16 points, while Allen Iverson and Linas Kleiza had 15 points each.

Even though they're playing at home Denver hasn't been given much of a chance by the oddsmakers in this one; they opened as 4.5-point dogs. The total opened at 227.5.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


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Monday, April 28

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MONTREAL (52-28-0-11, 115 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (47-32-0-12, 106 pts.) - 4/28/2008, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 11-3 (+7.9 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 11-3-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

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