Tweet
Had a real good week on the forum last week and it continued into Monday. Included in the last weeks record is an 8-1 NBA run.
Anyway, I picked the Hornets to win the series on 5dimes as my only NBA series wager. I dont get to see Chris Paul play that often but anytime I get the opportunity I do and now that its playoff time its great because all the games are on. As he did in Game 1, Paul could, should and IMO will run circles around Jason Kidd once again. Kidd was never a good defender even in his prime and now that he is older, the matchup with the New Orleans pointguard is a complete mismatch. Paul 35-10-4steals-1turnover, Kidd 11-9-2-4 (and more than a couple of those assists were Kidd giving to Nowitzki who created his own shot) in game one. I see a lot more of Chris Paul driving the lane and scoring and driving the lane and dishing to West or Chandler, just as we saw in Game 1. Dallas really has no inside presence to stop that. Dampier isnt much more than a space eater, doesnt do much of anything. Howard is banged up and really isnt anything more than an adequate defender when he is 100% and Novitski, well lets just say that defense isnt his strongpoint.
Secondly, in addition to how I feel about Paul running the offense and Kidd and company's ability to stop it, I think coaching wise, Avery Johnson is overrated and Byron Scott is underrated. He got a raw deal in NJ and look what his successor is doing with the team. Nothing.
Third, New Orleans couldnt get out of their own way in the first quarter of Game 1 and still won the game going away by 12. If they had just a below average first quarter, instead of a miserable one, it could have easily been a 20 point margin. They shot 9 of 27 in the first quarter while Dallas shot 50%. They started off playing tightly, that being the first playoff game for the franchise in 4 years and the first playoff game overall for most of the players.
Furthermore, I think the playoffs seem to exacerbate the problem that as good as Nowitzki is, he isnt good enough to carry the team through a playoff series by himself. He can get his 30-35 and that fine. Doesnt change the fact that his team doesnt play defense and that he is not only the first option offensively, but the second and third.
Furtherfurthermore, this is a very important game for both teams but Im sure the Hornets know that Dallas has a very loyal and loud crowd they will have to deal with in games 3 and 4 and that may expose some of their inexperience, so getting the first two is supremely important.
Lastly, the spread. 3 1/2 is a very manageable number. I was very curious to see how the Utah/Houston game played out because I drew a parallel between the two. Utah was a one point dog in game one and won the game by double digits and in game 2 they were a one point dog again. Why? Well in this series the Hornets were a 4 point favorite and won the game by double digits and now open as a 3 1/2 point favorite. Some would say the line is 3 1/2 because the books want money on the Hornets. But those same people would have to then say that the Utah line was +1 instead of -3 or 4 because the books wanted money on Utah. And now we know how that game 2 worked out.
So, I will take my chances that the spread is just wrong, which I really think it is. New Orleans wins this game by double digits and leaves Avery Johnson and the gang wondering about another possible first round exit on the way back to Dallas.
506 New Orleans -3 1/2
Best of luck to all.
Anyway, I picked the Hornets to win the series on 5dimes as my only NBA series wager. I dont get to see Chris Paul play that often but anytime I get the opportunity I do and now that its playoff time its great because all the games are on. As he did in Game 1, Paul could, should and IMO will run circles around Jason Kidd once again. Kidd was never a good defender even in his prime and now that he is older, the matchup with the New Orleans pointguard is a complete mismatch. Paul 35-10-4steals-1turnover, Kidd 11-9-2-4 (and more than a couple of those assists were Kidd giving to Nowitzki who created his own shot) in game one. I see a lot more of Chris Paul driving the lane and scoring and driving the lane and dishing to West or Chandler, just as we saw in Game 1. Dallas really has no inside presence to stop that. Dampier isnt much more than a space eater, doesnt do much of anything. Howard is banged up and really isnt anything more than an adequate defender when he is 100% and Novitski, well lets just say that defense isnt his strongpoint.
Secondly, in addition to how I feel about Paul running the offense and Kidd and company's ability to stop it, I think coaching wise, Avery Johnson is overrated and Byron Scott is underrated. He got a raw deal in NJ and look what his successor is doing with the team. Nothing.
Third, New Orleans couldnt get out of their own way in the first quarter of Game 1 and still won the game going away by 12. If they had just a below average first quarter, instead of a miserable one, it could have easily been a 20 point margin. They shot 9 of 27 in the first quarter while Dallas shot 50%. They started off playing tightly, that being the first playoff game for the franchise in 4 years and the first playoff game overall for most of the players.
Furthermore, I think the playoffs seem to exacerbate the problem that as good as Nowitzki is, he isnt good enough to carry the team through a playoff series by himself. He can get his 30-35 and that fine. Doesnt change the fact that his team doesnt play defense and that he is not only the first option offensively, but the second and third.
Furtherfurthermore, this is a very important game for both teams but Im sure the Hornets know that Dallas has a very loyal and loud crowd they will have to deal with in games 3 and 4 and that may expose some of their inexperience, so getting the first two is supremely important.
Lastly, the spread. 3 1/2 is a very manageable number. I was very curious to see how the Utah/Houston game played out because I drew a parallel between the two. Utah was a one point dog in game one and won the game by double digits and in game 2 they were a one point dog again. Why? Well in this series the Hornets were a 4 point favorite and won the game by double digits and now open as a 3 1/2 point favorite. Some would say the line is 3 1/2 because the books want money on the Hornets. But those same people would have to then say that the Utah line was +1 instead of -3 or 4 because the books wanted money on Utah. And now we know how that game 2 worked out.
So, I will take my chances that the spread is just wrong, which I really think it is. New Orleans wins this game by double digits and leaves Avery Johnson and the gang wondering about another possible first round exit on the way back to Dallas.
506 New Orleans -3 1/2
Best of luck to all.
Comment