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Ncaa Football 10/2 - 10/4
Got off to a good start Tuesday night with the Cougars, let keep it rolling right through the weekend! These are my plays....
Thursday, October 2, 2003
1 STAR: MIAMI (-26.5) OVER West Virginia
Most of the past trends favor West Virginia to get the cover here, but I have to buck the trends this time and go with the Hurricanes. The Mountaineers are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings with the Canes, but they are no where near as good a team as they have been in the past. West Virginia (1-3), which is playing its Big East opener, is off to a disappointing start, losing to Cincinnati and Maryland in its last two games. With the exception of the East Carolina game, the West Virginia offense has been unproductive averaging only 12 points per game. West Virginia quarterback Rasheed Marshall is not the a great passer, so his bad passing numbers aren't the problem, he us a running quarterback that needs to make things happen with his feet. The problem for West Virginia is that his running skills aren't shining through this year and he has only rushed for 58 yards and no touchdowns. This will be the best defense that West Virginia has faced and the Miami defense should most likely keep the Mountaineers from putting many points on the board. The Hurricanes also have a huge advantage in special teams. The return game for Miami has been great for the Canes. Miami is averaging an amazing 22 yards per punt return and 32 yards per kickoff return, while West Virginia is having all kinds of trouble with their kick coverage units. Also, Miami is 14-5 against the spread as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992. The only thing that concerns me is the fact that Miami plays Florida State next week and might be caught looking ahead, so we will keep this as a small one star play!
Friday, October 3, 2003
3 STAR: UTAH (+3) OVER Oregon
This is a tough spot for the Ducks who have a short week to recover from an ass whipping at home at the hands of Washington State. Oregon recorded one of the biggest wins in school history two weeks ago, when they defeated Michigan, but came out flat and disorganized against Washington State and trailed 38-2 at halftime. Oregon turned the ball over nine times on their way to the 55-16 loss. This was the Ducks worst loss since a 54-0 setback to Washington on October 8, 1977. Utah is a very solid team at 3-1 and 4-0 against the spread with impressive wins over California two games ago on a Thursday night and winning at Colorado State this past week. The Utes excel in this spot. Utah is 10-2 against the spread in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 9-0 against the spread as an underdog over the last three seasons and 6-0 against the spread in home games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. The line on this game looked fishy to me from the start when it opened at Oregon -1.5. Many people expect the Ducks to bounce back here (I'm not one of them), and they have beaten Utah the last three time that they have played, so why the low line? Look for the Utes to get the win here!
Saturday, October 4, 2003
5 STAR: Kansas State (+6) OVER TEXAS
Too many points to lay here against a team that might win the game straight up. Don't be fooled by the Longhorns dominating wins that have been on National TV that last two weeks. Rice and Tulane were no threat at all to the Longhorn defense and did very little to challenge the Texas offense. Texas has only faced one quality team this season and they were hammered in that game by Arkansas 38-28 in Austin. The Longhorns could not stop the run against the Razorbacks. In fact, Texas is ranked 93rd in the nation out of 117 division one schools against the run, allowing 184 yards per game. The Texas "D" has yet to prove it can handle a physical team, and that is not a good thing when facing a Kansas State team that ranks 10th in the nation in rushing despite their star Roberson being out for the past few games. The Wildcats most likely got caught looking past Marshall with this game coming up, but they should bounce back here as they are 20-8 against the spread after one or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up losses that have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team are a solid 59-28 over the last 5 seasons. The last time these teams played in Austin was in 1999, the Longhorns were then a 6.5 point favorite and lost the game 35-17. You could see similar results in this one. Take the points!
3 STAR: NORTHWESTERN (+10.5) OVER Minnesota
This could be a real bad spot for the Golden Gophers who are 5-0 and 4-1 against the spread this season. Minnesota has never played well in the second game of back to back road games and coming off of a big win at Penn State last week and with a big game against Michigan at home next week the Gophers could get
caught looking ahead. Only once in the last seven meetings between these two teams has the final margin of victory been by more than 10 points, and the Gophers escaped with a 3 point win at home last season against the Wildcats 45-42. The Gophers have been impressive so far this season, winning their games by an average of 28 points, but Northwestern is 9-1 against the spread in home games versus excellent teams that are outscoring their opponents by 17 or more points per game on the season since 1992 and the Wildcats are 5-1 against the spread when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the last 3 seasons. Also, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive straight up wins that are playing a team with a losing record are only 14-36 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take the Wildcats here!
3 STAR: TEXAS TECH (-6.5) OVER Texas A&M
Texas A&M usually never plays well in Lubbock, and this is a series that has been dominated by the Red Raiders going 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven meetings. The Aggies are only 1-7 against the spread as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 and 3-11 against the spread overall as a road underdog since 1992. A&M will have their hands full with the passing attack of BJ Symmons and company in this game. Last week Pittsburgh threw for 283 yards and five touchdowns on the Aggie secondary and Texas Tech's passing game is even more lethal. Symmons has been very impressive and is putting up some huge numbers. Unlike Kliff Kingsbury who would throw a lot of dump off and screen passes, Symmons throws the ball down field and often. The Aggies will have to play a dime defense for almost the whole game to defend this offense and that is not the strength of their defense. The Red Raiders are averaging 42 points per game, and will score plenty against the Aggies. Texas Tech is 17-2 against the spread when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons, and the Aggies are only 1-8 against the spread when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Look for Tech to take these boys behind the wood shed!
2 STAR: Tennessee (+1) OVER AUBURN
Plain and simple, Tennessee is the better team in this matchup. The Vols are 4-0 straight up and have played four quality opponents. I am not convinced that Auburn has turned it around after losing their first two games to USC and Georgia Tech. The Tigers have been big winners the last two weeks, but this has been against Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky. Auburn has not had much luck recently against Tennessee losing all three meetings that they have had since 1992. Playing at Auburn will not have a negative effect on Tennessee. The Vols have been road warriors, going 8-2 against the spread in road games over the last 3 seasons and 14-4 against the spread in October road games since 1992. Auburn is only 4-14 against the spread in home games after scoring 37 points or more in their last game since 1992, 3-11 against the spread in home games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1992 and 1-5 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Take the Vols here!
1 STAR: Hawaii (-10) OVER TULSA
This game has the makings of a shootout, and that type of game favors Hawaii to get the cover here. Tulsa is only 3-12 against the spread when they allow 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and they are only 1-6 against the spread in home games when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992. Tulsa is coming off of a bye and has extra time to prepare for this game, but they are only 3-10 against the spread after a bye week since 1992. The Warriors have done well here in the past, going 2-0 straight up and against the spread in their last two trips to Tulsa and I look for that success to continue. Play the Warriors here!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+4.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 8-7 (+0.9 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 8-3 (+9.4 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 8-1 (+6.9 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 27-13 (+21.2 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $2120.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
Thursday, October 2, 2003
1 STAR: MIAMI (-26.5) OVER West Virginia
Most of the past trends favor West Virginia to get the cover here, but I have to buck the trends this time and go with the Hurricanes. The Mountaineers are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings with the Canes, but they are no where near as good a team as they have been in the past. West Virginia (1-3), which is playing its Big East opener, is off to a disappointing start, losing to Cincinnati and Maryland in its last two games. With the exception of the East Carolina game, the West Virginia offense has been unproductive averaging only 12 points per game. West Virginia quarterback Rasheed Marshall is not the a great passer, so his bad passing numbers aren't the problem, he us a running quarterback that needs to make things happen with his feet. The problem for West Virginia is that his running skills aren't shining through this year and he has only rushed for 58 yards and no touchdowns. This will be the best defense that West Virginia has faced and the Miami defense should most likely keep the Mountaineers from putting many points on the board. The Hurricanes also have a huge advantage in special teams. The return game for Miami has been great for the Canes. Miami is averaging an amazing 22 yards per punt return and 32 yards per kickoff return, while West Virginia is having all kinds of trouble with their kick coverage units. Also, Miami is 14-5 against the spread as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992. The only thing that concerns me is the fact that Miami plays Florida State next week and might be caught looking ahead, so we will keep this as a small one star play!
Friday, October 3, 2003
3 STAR: UTAH (+3) OVER Oregon
This is a tough spot for the Ducks who have a short week to recover from an ass whipping at home at the hands of Washington State. Oregon recorded one of the biggest wins in school history two weeks ago, when they defeated Michigan, but came out flat and disorganized against Washington State and trailed 38-2 at halftime. Oregon turned the ball over nine times on their way to the 55-16 loss. This was the Ducks worst loss since a 54-0 setback to Washington on October 8, 1977. Utah is a very solid team at 3-1 and 4-0 against the spread with impressive wins over California two games ago on a Thursday night and winning at Colorado State this past week. The Utes excel in this spot. Utah is 10-2 against the spread in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 9-0 against the spread as an underdog over the last three seasons and 6-0 against the spread in home games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. The line on this game looked fishy to me from the start when it opened at Oregon -1.5. Many people expect the Ducks to bounce back here (I'm not one of them), and they have beaten Utah the last three time that they have played, so why the low line? Look for the Utes to get the win here!
Saturday, October 4, 2003
5 STAR: Kansas State (+6) OVER TEXAS
Too many points to lay here against a team that might win the game straight up. Don't be fooled by the Longhorns dominating wins that have been on National TV that last two weeks. Rice and Tulane were no threat at all to the Longhorn defense and did very little to challenge the Texas offense. Texas has only faced one quality team this season and they were hammered in that game by Arkansas 38-28 in Austin. The Longhorns could not stop the run against the Razorbacks. In fact, Texas is ranked 93rd in the nation out of 117 division one schools against the run, allowing 184 yards per game. The Texas "D" has yet to prove it can handle a physical team, and that is not a good thing when facing a Kansas State team that ranks 10th in the nation in rushing despite their star Roberson being out for the past few games. The Wildcats most likely got caught looking past Marshall with this game coming up, but they should bounce back here as they are 20-8 against the spread after one or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up losses that have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team are a solid 59-28 over the last 5 seasons. The last time these teams played in Austin was in 1999, the Longhorns were then a 6.5 point favorite and lost the game 35-17. You could see similar results in this one. Take the points!
3 STAR: NORTHWESTERN (+10.5) OVER Minnesota
This could be a real bad spot for the Golden Gophers who are 5-0 and 4-1 against the spread this season. Minnesota has never played well in the second game of back to back road games and coming off of a big win at Penn State last week and with a big game against Michigan at home next week the Gophers could get
caught looking ahead. Only once in the last seven meetings between these two teams has the final margin of victory been by more than 10 points, and the Gophers escaped with a 3 point win at home last season against the Wildcats 45-42. The Gophers have been impressive so far this season, winning their games by an average of 28 points, but Northwestern is 9-1 against the spread in home games versus excellent teams that are outscoring their opponents by 17 or more points per game on the season since 1992 and the Wildcats are 5-1 against the spread when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the last 3 seasons. Also, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive straight up wins that are playing a team with a losing record are only 14-36 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take the Wildcats here!
3 STAR: TEXAS TECH (-6.5) OVER Texas A&M
Texas A&M usually never plays well in Lubbock, and this is a series that has been dominated by the Red Raiders going 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven meetings. The Aggies are only 1-7 against the spread as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 and 3-11 against the spread overall as a road underdog since 1992. A&M will have their hands full with the passing attack of BJ Symmons and company in this game. Last week Pittsburgh threw for 283 yards and five touchdowns on the Aggie secondary and Texas Tech's passing game is even more lethal. Symmons has been very impressive and is putting up some huge numbers. Unlike Kliff Kingsbury who would throw a lot of dump off and screen passes, Symmons throws the ball down field and often. The Aggies will have to play a dime defense for almost the whole game to defend this offense and that is not the strength of their defense. The Red Raiders are averaging 42 points per game, and will score plenty against the Aggies. Texas Tech is 17-2 against the spread when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons, and the Aggies are only 1-8 against the spread when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Look for Tech to take these boys behind the wood shed!
2 STAR: Tennessee (+1) OVER AUBURN
Plain and simple, Tennessee is the better team in this matchup. The Vols are 4-0 straight up and have played four quality opponents. I am not convinced that Auburn has turned it around after losing their first two games to USC and Georgia Tech. The Tigers have been big winners the last two weeks, but this has been against Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky. Auburn has not had much luck recently against Tennessee losing all three meetings that they have had since 1992. Playing at Auburn will not have a negative effect on Tennessee. The Vols have been road warriors, going 8-2 against the spread in road games over the last 3 seasons and 14-4 against the spread in October road games since 1992. Auburn is only 4-14 against the spread in home games after scoring 37 points or more in their last game since 1992, 3-11 against the spread in home games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1992 and 1-5 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Take the Vols here!
1 STAR: Hawaii (-10) OVER TULSA
This game has the makings of a shootout, and that type of game favors Hawaii to get the cover here. Tulsa is only 3-12 against the spread when they allow 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and they are only 1-6 against the spread in home games when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992. Tulsa is coming off of a bye and has extra time to prepare for this game, but they are only 3-10 against the spread after a bye week since 1992. The Warriors have done well here in the past, going 2-0 straight up and against the spread in their last two trips to Tulsa and I look for that success to continue. Play the Warriors here!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+4.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 8-7 (+0.9 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 8-3 (+9.4 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 8-1 (+6.9 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 27-13 (+21.2 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $2120.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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