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WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE OPENING WEEKEND OF NBA PLAYOFF ACTION
I had hoped to have a lot to talk about heading into this first big weekend of NBA playoff action. But, honestly, the sharps have been sitting on their hands!
The opening lines in all eight games have been up for awhile, and we've seen very little line movement in Reno and Las Vegas. Now, you regular readers know that this doesn't mean the sharps (professional wagerers) don't have any opinions on the games. What this typically means is that the sharps are planning on betting underdogs, and they're waiting to see if the public bets the favorites on game day.
You know the general rules:
If you like the favorite, bet EARLY, because the public usually bets favorites on game day and drives the lines up.
If you like the underdog, bet LATE, because you'll be getting more points after the public money has driven the line up.
The same rules are true to a lesser degree with totals. The public prefers to bet on Overs because it's more fun to root for offenses than it is to root for defenses. Sharps liking Overs will bet early. Those liking Unders will bet late unless there's a fear that the public isn't going to get involved.
The fact that the lines stat motionless for at least 24 hours tells me that the sharps are looking at Dogs and Unders in the first week, and they're waiting to see if they can steal some value against the later lines. If the public doesn't get involved, then the sharps will either take the best they can get, or they'll pass the games and wait for the second game in every series to get involved.
I have seen some tinkering with the series prices. Let's just go matchup by matchup through the weekend and outline what's going on...
SATURDAY'S GAMES
WASHINGTON AT CLEVELAND
The line here has settled in at Cleveland by 2.5, with a total of 188. The series price is Cleveland -120. I know a lot of sharps are watching LeBron James closely. They know he has a bad back. They also know that Gilbert Arenas is fresh as a daisy after missing most of the season. The guys I know who have an opinion like Washington in the series. They don't see much value at even money when you don't have home court advantage though. They're hoping to get +3 in this first game, figuring the public will bet LeBron on game day. On the whole, this just isn't a series that is garnering much passion locally. The sharps don't trust Washington to win on command. And, they can't support the
Cavs until they see that James is playing at full speed. I wouldn't be surprised to see some late money on the dog here before tip off.
PHOENIX AT SAN ANTONIO
San Antonio is a 4-point favorite, with a total of 194. The series price has been hopping between -140 and -150 for the Spurs. Spurs backers will drive the line up to -150, then Suns backers will jump in there and bring it back down.
Sharps are interested to see if the public is going to bet on the defending champion Spurs, or on Shaquille O'Neal's new team the Phoenix Suns. The public has never fallen in love with San Antonio because Tim Duncan just doesn't have marquee star power. Phoenix hasn't been setting the world on fire since the trade either. I'm actually hearing split opinions from sharps in this series. It wouldn't surprise me if most of the action Saturday is sharp vs. sharp in this game, with the public kind of sitting back and watching. If the public does bet the favorite, Suns backers will bring the line right back down to where it is now in my view.
DALLAS AT NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite, with a total of 193. The series price is New Orleans -145. This one hasn't been on the radar at all with the public. They lost faith in Dallas after the Mavericks were upset in the first round last year. New Orleans hasn't been on TV much this year, and is seen as a pretender because they lack playoff experience.
Most old school sharps place a lot of weight on playoff experience at this time of year. Dallas has a big edge in that regard, and traded for veteran Jason Kidd late in the season. The guys I'm talking too are looking at Dallas and trying to find value prices. I expect them to act before tipoff at that price of +4.5 if the public never gets involved. I also expect some series action on the dog.
I can't see the public getting excited about this matchup given the marquee elements in other series. This one is likely to be sharps vs. oddsmakers the whole way...with the sportsbooks rooting for the favorites in every game.
UTAH AT HOUSTON
We have an odd situation here. Utah's loss to San Antonio in the final game of the season kept them from earning home court advantage in this matchup, even though they're the #4 seed. They're still seen as the much superior side though, and are a whopping -220 to win the series. It's very odd to see a -220 favorite that's a 1-point underdog on the road (with a total of 187)...in a series where they'll be on the road in four of seven games. I know some sharps are trying to creatively leverage those prices to their best advantage.
There hasn't been much action yet other than attempts to leverage. And, even guys with that mindset are hoping Utah loses this first game so they can get a better price on the Jazz to come back and win the series. This is a rematch from last year, where the Jazz dropped the first two games in Houston, but came back to win the next four.
Utah is seen as a very strong home team, but a weak visitor. That is limiting any early excitement about the Jazz in this first game. We may fireworks in later games. I don't expect much to happen betting-wise in this series opener.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
TORONTO AT ORLANDO
Orlando is favored by 6.5 points, with a total of 196.5. The series price is up to Orlando -320 after opening around -270. The line in the game hasn't moved, but we've seen a lot of support for the Magic to win the series from Nevada sharps.
Is that justified? Probably. Toronto didn't play well last year against New Jersey even though they had home court in that first round series. The defense is soft. And, the team just hasn't looked good against top competition this year. You don't often see sharps lay -270 or -300 on a proposition. When they do, they must have a lot of confidence.
I'm not expecting much public interest in this series. Both cities are nice places to visit. There's little reason to watch the series because the excitement out East is with favorites Boston and Detroit, who see their first action later in the day. I'm sensing that the sharps are going to pass the opener, then focus on taking the prior game's loser from that point forward.
DENVER AT LA LAKERS
The Lakers are favored by 8.5 points, with a total of 224. The series price is -600 (up from -570).
Tough call here. The sharps know that this could be the most competitive #1 vs. #8 matchup ever in terms of the caliber of teams. But, they also know that Denver's defense was horrible after the All-Star break. How are you going to stop Kobe Bryant with a horrible defense? The fact that the series price went up right away tells you the sharps don't think they will over the seven games.
Sharps don't lay this many points in a playoff game. So, the guys who like the Lakers are waiting for the cheaper prices they'll see in Denver. Bettors interested in the Nuggets are waiting to see if the public drives the line up to +9 or better over the weekend.
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT
Detroit is favored by 10 points (up from 9.5), with a total of 178.5. Detroit is a whopping -1200 to win the series. That means you'd have to risk $1,200 to win $100 on the Pistons to advance here in Nevada. Expensive indeed.
Detroit had a knack for playing to their number against Orlando in last year's first round. The sharps remember that, and aren't particularly interested in playing any coin flips. They'll wait to see if the line adjusts to public sentiment over the weekend. Or, they'll wait until a later meeting to get involved in this series. The guys I'm talking too are much more interested in taking quality Western conference underdogs than taking any flyers on the lesser teams in the East.
ATLANTA AT BOSTON
There's a term for bettors who lay huge prices on favorites who supposedly can't lose. That term is "bridge jumpers." The theory is, if they lose the bet they'll have to jump off a bridge because they won't be able to cover the loss. Boston opened as an incredible -6000 favorite in this series (meaning you'd have to risk $6,000 to win $100). That actually inspired a lot of early action...and the price jumped to 7500! There has been some buyback since then, and I'm seeing 6500 as I write this.
There are actually some sharps who like this kind of play. To them, that $100 is a gift! Why not earn a free dinner at an expensive restaurant in Vegas just by knowing that Atlanta has no chance in the world to beat Boston? Well financed guys have been doing this for years. They let the sportsbooks hold their $6,000 or whatever it is for 4-5 games, then pocket the free $100. It hasn't bitten them yet. It might eventually.
For comparison's sake...the New England Patriots were -450 over the NY Giants in the Super Bowl. That was incorrectly seen as a mismatch by many. There's a HUGE difference between -450 and -6000!
In the first game, Boston is -15, with a total of 189. I haven't seen any interest on the big ugly underdog. Sharps won't lay 15 points in a playoff game unless they see ample evidence that the line should be even higher.
I had hoped to have a lot to talk about heading into this first big weekend of NBA playoff action. But, honestly, the sharps have been sitting on their hands!
The opening lines in all eight games have been up for awhile, and we've seen very little line movement in Reno and Las Vegas. Now, you regular readers know that this doesn't mean the sharps (professional wagerers) don't have any opinions on the games. What this typically means is that the sharps are planning on betting underdogs, and they're waiting to see if the public bets the favorites on game day.
You know the general rules:
If you like the favorite, bet EARLY, because the public usually bets favorites on game day and drives the lines up.
If you like the underdog, bet LATE, because you'll be getting more points after the public money has driven the line up.
The same rules are true to a lesser degree with totals. The public prefers to bet on Overs because it's more fun to root for offenses than it is to root for defenses. Sharps liking Overs will bet early. Those liking Unders will bet late unless there's a fear that the public isn't going to get involved.
The fact that the lines stat motionless for at least 24 hours tells me that the sharps are looking at Dogs and Unders in the first week, and they're waiting to see if they can steal some value against the later lines. If the public doesn't get involved, then the sharps will either take the best they can get, or they'll pass the games and wait for the second game in every series to get involved.
I have seen some tinkering with the series prices. Let's just go matchup by matchup through the weekend and outline what's going on...
SATURDAY'S GAMES
WASHINGTON AT CLEVELAND
The line here has settled in at Cleveland by 2.5, with a total of 188. The series price is Cleveland -120. I know a lot of sharps are watching LeBron James closely. They know he has a bad back. They also know that Gilbert Arenas is fresh as a daisy after missing most of the season. The guys I know who have an opinion like Washington in the series. They don't see much value at even money when you don't have home court advantage though. They're hoping to get +3 in this first game, figuring the public will bet LeBron on game day. On the whole, this just isn't a series that is garnering much passion locally. The sharps don't trust Washington to win on command. And, they can't support the
Cavs until they see that James is playing at full speed. I wouldn't be surprised to see some late money on the dog here before tip off.
PHOENIX AT SAN ANTONIO
San Antonio is a 4-point favorite, with a total of 194. The series price has been hopping between -140 and -150 for the Spurs. Spurs backers will drive the line up to -150, then Suns backers will jump in there and bring it back down.
Sharps are interested to see if the public is going to bet on the defending champion Spurs, or on Shaquille O'Neal's new team the Phoenix Suns. The public has never fallen in love with San Antonio because Tim Duncan just doesn't have marquee star power. Phoenix hasn't been setting the world on fire since the trade either. I'm actually hearing split opinions from sharps in this series. It wouldn't surprise me if most of the action Saturday is sharp vs. sharp in this game, with the public kind of sitting back and watching. If the public does bet the favorite, Suns backers will bring the line right back down to where it is now in my view.
DALLAS AT NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite, with a total of 193. The series price is New Orleans -145. This one hasn't been on the radar at all with the public. They lost faith in Dallas after the Mavericks were upset in the first round last year. New Orleans hasn't been on TV much this year, and is seen as a pretender because they lack playoff experience.
Most old school sharps place a lot of weight on playoff experience at this time of year. Dallas has a big edge in that regard, and traded for veteran Jason Kidd late in the season. The guys I'm talking too are looking at Dallas and trying to find value prices. I expect them to act before tipoff at that price of +4.5 if the public never gets involved. I also expect some series action on the dog.
I can't see the public getting excited about this matchup given the marquee elements in other series. This one is likely to be sharps vs. oddsmakers the whole way...with the sportsbooks rooting for the favorites in every game.
UTAH AT HOUSTON
We have an odd situation here. Utah's loss to San Antonio in the final game of the season kept them from earning home court advantage in this matchup, even though they're the #4 seed. They're still seen as the much superior side though, and are a whopping -220 to win the series. It's very odd to see a -220 favorite that's a 1-point underdog on the road (with a total of 187)...in a series where they'll be on the road in four of seven games. I know some sharps are trying to creatively leverage those prices to their best advantage.
There hasn't been much action yet other than attempts to leverage. And, even guys with that mindset are hoping Utah loses this first game so they can get a better price on the Jazz to come back and win the series. This is a rematch from last year, where the Jazz dropped the first two games in Houston, but came back to win the next four.
Utah is seen as a very strong home team, but a weak visitor. That is limiting any early excitement about the Jazz in this first game. We may fireworks in later games. I don't expect much to happen betting-wise in this series opener.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
TORONTO AT ORLANDO
Orlando is favored by 6.5 points, with a total of 196.5. The series price is up to Orlando -320 after opening around -270. The line in the game hasn't moved, but we've seen a lot of support for the Magic to win the series from Nevada sharps.
Is that justified? Probably. Toronto didn't play well last year against New Jersey even though they had home court in that first round series. The defense is soft. And, the team just hasn't looked good against top competition this year. You don't often see sharps lay -270 or -300 on a proposition. When they do, they must have a lot of confidence.
I'm not expecting much public interest in this series. Both cities are nice places to visit. There's little reason to watch the series because the excitement out East is with favorites Boston and Detroit, who see their first action later in the day. I'm sensing that the sharps are going to pass the opener, then focus on taking the prior game's loser from that point forward.
DENVER AT LA LAKERS
The Lakers are favored by 8.5 points, with a total of 224. The series price is -600 (up from -570).
Tough call here. The sharps know that this could be the most competitive #1 vs. #8 matchup ever in terms of the caliber of teams. But, they also know that Denver's defense was horrible after the All-Star break. How are you going to stop Kobe Bryant with a horrible defense? The fact that the series price went up right away tells you the sharps don't think they will over the seven games.
Sharps don't lay this many points in a playoff game. So, the guys who like the Lakers are waiting for the cheaper prices they'll see in Denver. Bettors interested in the Nuggets are waiting to see if the public drives the line up to +9 or better over the weekend.
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT
Detroit is favored by 10 points (up from 9.5), with a total of 178.5. Detroit is a whopping -1200 to win the series. That means you'd have to risk $1,200 to win $100 on the Pistons to advance here in Nevada. Expensive indeed.
Detroit had a knack for playing to their number against Orlando in last year's first round. The sharps remember that, and aren't particularly interested in playing any coin flips. They'll wait to see if the line adjusts to public sentiment over the weekend. Or, they'll wait until a later meeting to get involved in this series. The guys I'm talking too are much more interested in taking quality Western conference underdogs than taking any flyers on the lesser teams in the East.
ATLANTA AT BOSTON
There's a term for bettors who lay huge prices on favorites who supposedly can't lose. That term is "bridge jumpers." The theory is, if they lose the bet they'll have to jump off a bridge because they won't be able to cover the loss. Boston opened as an incredible -6000 favorite in this series (meaning you'd have to risk $6,000 to win $100). That actually inspired a lot of early action...and the price jumped to 7500! There has been some buyback since then, and I'm seeing 6500 as I write this.
There are actually some sharps who like this kind of play. To them, that $100 is a gift! Why not earn a free dinner at an expensive restaurant in Vegas just by knowing that Atlanta has no chance in the world to beat Boston? Well financed guys have been doing this for years. They let the sportsbooks hold their $6,000 or whatever it is for 4-5 games, then pocket the free $100. It hasn't bitten them yet. It might eventually.
For comparison's sake...the New England Patriots were -450 over the NY Giants in the Super Bowl. That was incorrectly seen as a mismatch by many. There's a HUGE difference between -450 and -6000!
In the first game, Boston is -15, with a total of 189. I haven't seen any interest on the big ugly underdog. Sharps won't lay 15 points in a playoff game unless they see ample evidence that the line should be even higher.
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