The Nba Playoffs: Before Picking This Year's First Round,review Last Year's First Rou

[BettorsChat]

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
THE NBA PLAYOFFS: BEFORE PICKING THIS YEAR'S FIRST ROUND, REVIEW LAST YEAR'S FIRST ROUND!
I know a lot of you are excited about betting the upcoming NBA playoffs. The regular season is finally over...and it's time for the really BIG games to start.
This year more than any in recent memory, that's going to be A LOT of big games. The matchups in the Western Conference first round are all good enough to be conference semifinal games. Everybody playing won at least 50 games this year...which is a reflection of quality and consistency. And, the East could turn out to have some interesting early games too based on what I've been watching on the big screen TV's in recent weeks.
Before you get all gung-ho about this year's opening round, it might behoove you to study what happened last year in the first round. A lot of bettors struggled because they were using approaches and strategies that were a bit outdated.
It would be dumb if you jumped right in this year with those same strategies!
ALWAYS TAKE UNDERDOGS
This is a popular one. Most sharps tend to focus their action on underdogs to be sure. I'm not going to recommend laying points left and right in the playoffs. But, I do want you to be aware that taking ALL underdogs isn't necessarily the bargain you might think. Last year, in the eight first round matchups...underdogs were just 19-20-2 against the spread over 41 games. Counting the vigorish, that's minus three games (you lose that extra 10% juice on the misses).
Golden State was a great underdog, going 5-1 ATS against Dallas in that big first round upset.
Denver counteracted that as a lousy underdog against San Antonio. They were just 1-4 ATS when they were eliminated in five games.
The underdog in the Utah/Houston series really struggled, posting just a 2-5 ATS record as those teams traded some home favorite victories until the Jazz stole a game on the road.
It's easy to remember Golden State's upset and talk yourself into a bunch of underdogs. You're much better off trying to pick your spots with truly live dogs who enjoy matchup advantages.

ALWAYS TAKE UNDERS
This is another one you hear all the time. Scoring goes down in the playoffs, so you should always take the Unders. Last year's first round saw 22 of 41 games go Under their totals. Hey, it's a winning record. But, 22-19 after the vigorish is about the same as 22-21. You bet 43 unders to pick up one unit. That's not exactly a gold mine...particularly if you were also betting underdogs all the time.
The Denver/San Antonio series saw all FIVE games go Under. The Spurs really clamped down on defense, and took Denver out of its preferred tempo. This was a series to focus on Unders.
Chicago and Miami flew Over though, with three of four games going over in the Bulls surprising sweep.
Orlando/Detroit also went Over, as the Pistons took advantage of their athleticism to earn a four-game sweep in a series that was much higher scoring than the oddsmakers or bettors expected.
The oddsmakers learned many years ago to reduce totals in the playoffs. There's an edge in certain matchups...but it's hard to say there's an across-the-board edge now. The public is much smarter about this proposition, and no longer drive totals up the way they used to. The public loves betting Overs as a general rule. They learned way back in those old New York/Miami matchups that it's no fun to bet Overs if the game's going to end 77-75!
There you go, the two things you were probably most likely to do the next two weeks have been exposed as dicey strategies. You can pick yours spots with dogs and Unders and do well. A blanket approach is likely to be frustrating unless many of these teams break their recent form.
I did find a couple of interesting notes from last year's first round matchups for you that do jive with general strategies:
Take the pointspread loser of the first game to cover in the second game. That went 5-1-1 ATS last year, with teams trying as hard as they could to bounce back from a poor outing. Only seven games are in the sample because Miami/Chicago pushed in the first game...so there wasn't a game one ATS loser to back. Many teams started stringing together ****** after those first two games. From game three onward:
Chicago went 2-0 ATS
Cleveland went 2-0 ATS
New Jersey went 3-1 ATS
Golden State went 4-0 ATS
Utah went 5-0 ATS
San Antonio went 3-0 ATS
That's six of the eight winners who got hot and sustained performances from game three onward. Look for a yo-yo right at first...but then the team that enjoys the matchup advantages is likely to keep things going until the series is over.
Think about that for awhile. Recognizing which team was best suited to win the series was much more valuable than trying to get cute with generic strategies. Understanding the game is what paid off. Over the eight first round games, the eventual series winner went 27-12-2 ATS. Yes, it's easy to know after the fact who the better teams were in a series. The point here is that recognizing it midstream has a big reward. Handicappers doing the extra work were paid off last year, while guys trying to use shortcuts mostly juiced out.
Take the Under in the FIRST GAME of a series. Teams did start out conservative last year, with six of the eight openers staying Under their totals. Note that things loosened up right after that, as six of the eight second games went over. If you like Unders, maybe this weekend is a good time to find a few strong nominees. After that, it will be better to wait until later when the pressure games slow down the tempo.
I'm really looking forward to this weekend's action. Be sure to come back Saturday morning for a look at what the sharps are thinking about all the first round matchups. I'll talk about series prices and the eight opening games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. Many sharps struggled through March Madness, but are flush with cash again after a great baseball stretch. There's going to be sharp action this weekend, I can assure you of that.

[BettorsChat]

DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHOULD YOU RIDE THE STEAM? OR FADE THE STEAM?
This is a common debate amongst sports bettors in Las Vegas and Reno. If you go back 20 years, you would have heard the same debate! This has gone on forever...and the fundamentals still apply.
The basic truth is this: you want to back people who know what they're doing, and go against the public!
It sounds simple. And, it really is fairly simple to put that rule to work as long as you have the time and resources to make it happen.
There's a class of sports gambler now that makes his living by handicapping the market rather than the teams. These guys are surprisingly ignorant of teams and players in the sports they bet. If you talk football or basketball with them, you'll be stunned by what they don't know, or even understand about how games are won and lost. But, the fact is, they're probably much more successful than you are because of their approach.
What they do is study the markets closely so they can tell the difference between a smart money move and a public move. Typically professional wagers invest as soon as lines go up, or relatively early in the betting session. The public bets late in the day, or on Saturday and Sunday mornings during football season. Early moves tend to be smart, late moves tend to be from the public. Last second moves tend to be smart because pro wagerers are buying the underdog because the public has driven the line too high.
If you know THAT, you don't really have to know anything about the teams! You don't have to know the names of the cornerbacks, or what division anybody plays in, or which NBA team is playing its fourth game in five nights. As long as you can read the bettors, you can make good money in this field.
The next key step to know is that pro wagerers almost never bet on a team or total after the line has moved two points against them. Some will draw the line even sooner. They have respect for the oddsmakers, and assume that the guys posting the number aren't going to make mistakes which miss the line by THAT much. They accept that smaller misses happen a lot, and they try to grind out their living by beating those smaller misses.
Those are the only pieces of the puzzle you need to have for developing the proper steam strategies. There's no reason to have a "debate" about whether it's better to ride the steam or fade the steam. The right approach does both.
RIDE the early steam, preferably by betting the action games at places that haven't moved their lines yet. This used to be a lot easier than it is now. Some guys retired on their ability to do this in Nevada sportsbooks in the eighties and nineties...or in the offshore world when that developed. They'd read the smart moves at major books, and bet the same games at the original lines at minor books.


FADE the early steam after it's moved the line two points. The value of a point is such in all sports that value flips to the other side (or opposite total) after a move of that size. The best market players are doing both, and setting up middles for themselves. When a game lands between the boundaries, they win both bets and earn a huge score.


FADE the late steam that comes from the public. If a line is moving relatively late in the day, or on a Saturday or Sunday morning in football, that's often a reflection of the herd mentality from the general public. Everyone's on a big name team in a TV game. Or, everyone wants to bet a hot team like the Patriots or the Cowboys in the NFL. The sharps generally step in once the line has moved two points from the opener. Some will wait and try to grab even more free points if they sense the public is just going to keep betting come hell or high water.
You'll hear guys saying "the only way to get rich is by fading the steam!" They focus on those last two steps and make a good living for themselves. Others will point out though that the biggest value comes from hitting bad openers, THEN setting up some middles after the steam has happened. Guys who can do it all make the most money. Guys who are only able to apply some of these strategies will increase their betting profits. If you're doing NONE of these, then you need to start thinking about it!
I've said many times that the goal of these articles is to get you thinking and playing like a sharp. One of the keys to that is understanding how to make line moves work to your advantage.
Personally, I think it's more fun and interesting to study the teams, the players, the coaches, AND the betting market. All of the pieces come together and you develop a full understanding of the big picture. I see a lot of people coming down on one side of the fence or the other. They either see a line and bet it based on their knowledge of the teams. Or, they read the market and bet strategically with virtually no regard for the teams involved. Try sitting ON the fence! If you're a market player, you'll improve your win rate by knowing more about the teams. If you're a classic handicapper, you'll improve your returns by finding the best value on your bets.
From the perspective of today's article, ALL OF YOU should be trying to ride the early steam and fade the steam after significant movements. It's a proven strategy that's going to keep working as long as the oddsmakers are pretty good...and the public is pretty dumb.
The WORST thing you can do is to try and ride the steam after the lines have moved significantly. There's no more certain sign of a "square" (public bettor) than hearing a guy say "I don't care what the line is, my team is going to win big!" If you bet a lot of games, you're going to lose some because you took a bad line. Over the long haul, that's either going to make you a loser, or at least keep you from winning much. Ride the steam early, or don't ride it at all!

[Kaptain]

thanks for the good reads Monte

[jcheckers]

Thanks Monte!!