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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
CHOPPY WATERS MEAN SMOOTH SAILING FOR BASEBALL SHARPS
That might sound like an odd way to summarize the strategies of professional wagerers. Normally you'd want smooth waters for smooth sailing. When it comes to sports betting, the very best want to see a lot of teams alternating wins and losses and hanging around the .500 mark. The public tends to bet on teams they expect to post great records. If none of those teams are actually posting great records, the sharps make a lot of money.
Professional wagerers tend to "grind" out their profits in all sports by taking underdogs against the favorites supported by the public. They know they won't win all the time. They just want to win more than half the time in football and basketball. In baseball, with the moneyline format, winning half the time will make you a lot of money when you're focusing on underdogs. You can win less than half the time and still do well.
Look at what happened over the first dozen or so games for all the teams expected to do well this season. Here's a full listing of ALL major league teams who had regular season win totals of 88 or more in Nevada betting propositions.
Boston: 6-6
NY Yankees: 6-6
LA Angels: 6-6
NY Mets 5-5
LA Dodgers: 5-6
Cleveland: 4-7
Detroit: 2-9
Five teams were expected to crack 90 victories based on the posted win totals. Those five were a combined 34-45 heading into Sunday's action. Sharps have largely been going against those teams because the public loves to back them. A 50/50 mark would have been lucrative. Hitting 57% with mostly underdogs is a BIG profit scenario needless to say.
If teams like Boston and New York (either New York team) are going through choppy waters and playing .500 baseball, then the sharps are happy.
Let's turn things around and look at the actual division leaders. The teams who have been winning were largely non-public teams not expected to do well this season:
DIVISION LEADERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY
AL East: Baltimore (66 projected wins)
AL Central: Chicago White Sox (78 projected wins)
AL West: Oakland (76 projected wins)
NL East: Florida (69 projected wins)
NL Central: St. Louis (77 projected wins)
NL West: Arizona (86 projected wins)
Out of that group, only Arizona was expected to break .500! I know many pundits and fans who expected Baltimore to be horrible this year, the White Sox to struggle, the A's to be overmatched, the Marlins to be a laughingstock, the Cards to be doomed, and, well, Arizona was pretty well respected. The point is, five of those six teams weren't supposed to be winners this year. The public had no expectations for these teams at all. You could have made a lot of money riding them in these first few weeks.
Two key points here:
It's only two weeks. All of the teams discussed so far are fully capable of eventually playing to their projected form. Oddsmakers wouldn't miss THAT many teams by THAT much! I do expect many of the projected contenders to start playing well, and many of the projected flops to cool off.
Sharps make most of their money going against public teams rather than trying to guess which non-public teams are going to get hot. Going against Detroit or the Yankees is a fairly common strategy. Hoping Baltimore gets hot isn't. The sharps will "value bet" lesser teams if they think the price is right. Their focus will be in going against the overpriced public teams though.
I'm seeing a lot of big smiles from the baseball sharps so far. I mentioned last week that these guys have had good success so far going against the big name teams. Many of the value bets are also coming through too. If you play a lot of action (which sharps do), going 8-6 or 7-7 with a lot of dogs is a big day. It's easy to have days like that when so many teams are hanging the .500 mark.
Consider:
Heading into Sunday's action, eight of the 30 teams had EXACTLY .500 records through their first 10 or 12 games.
Nine more teams were within a game of .500 with records of 6-5 or 5-6. That's a total of 17 teams, more than half the majors, who were basically splitting out all of their games. Splits are great for sharps because they focus on underdogs.
There are only a handful of teams with extreme records. The sharps figured out quickly to stay out of the way of Arizona and St. Louis on the high end...and to avoid backing San Francisco on the low end. Nobody wanted anything to do with the Giants at first, though that mindset is changing a bit. St. Louis surprised some people. Nobody was stubborn about betting against them during their hot streak though.
It's easy to sidestep the potholes when there are only a few worth noticing. Thus far, it's been one of the easiest "player's" markets I've seen in quite a while. The proven strategies are working. After a demanding year in the football, and a frustrating stretch of college baskets, the sharps are delighted things are returning to form. Oh, I haven't even mentioned totals yet. The sharps have been cleaning up on those too.
How has baseball been going for you? Are you smiling like the sharps? Or, do you keep laying odds with the big name teams assuming they're going to start winning? Have you been riding Detroit into the sewer every day because they were "due" to win? Did you lose at big odds on Sabathia and Carmona for the Indians against the A's a couple of days ago? The public lost those games. The sharps won them.
Here's what you should be doing:
Go against the high dollar franchises until they start winning. Slow starts for teams like that don't last two weeks. They last six weeks or two months. Then the powers start playing like powers and surge toward high win totals. I think you'll still make money over the next several weeks as a rule going against the powers.
Keep riding the lesser name teams that are playing well. Yes, they'll cool off...but they can keep winning while cooling off. A 9-3 team might slow down to 7-5 over the next 12 games, or 12-8 the next 20. If they're not expensive to take, that makes money. I've got my eye on a few teams who are likely to have solid, productive runs like that.
Don't back big name pitchers who are struggling. The public has been really bad about that. Sharps earned HUGE payoffs going against Sabathia and Oswalt Friday night. There are other guys who are either battling injuries or still finding their form who offer value as go-against pitchers.
Look for young pitchers the public doesn't know about who are posting high strikeout numbers. That's the single best stat for finding good investments. If the public hasn't heard of a guy, they assume he's not very good. They've paid repeatedly for that mistake this season. You should be trying to find the true value guys at cheap prices.
Study the forecasts so you know the game time temperatures. I can't believe how many public wagerers keep betting on Overs in cold weather games
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
CHOPPY WATERS MEAN SMOOTH SAILING FOR BASEBALL SHARPS
That might sound like an odd way to summarize the strategies of professional wagerers. Normally you'd want smooth waters for smooth sailing. When it comes to sports betting, the very best want to see a lot of teams alternating wins and losses and hanging around the .500 mark. The public tends to bet on teams they expect to post great records. If none of those teams are actually posting great records, the sharps make a lot of money.
Professional wagerers tend to "grind" out their profits in all sports by taking underdogs against the favorites supported by the public. They know they won't win all the time. They just want to win more than half the time in football and basketball. In baseball, with the moneyline format, winning half the time will make you a lot of money when you're focusing on underdogs. You can win less than half the time and still do well.
Look at what happened over the first dozen or so games for all the teams expected to do well this season. Here's a full listing of ALL major league teams who had regular season win totals of 88 or more in Nevada betting propositions.
Boston: 6-6
NY Yankees: 6-6
LA Angels: 6-6
NY Mets 5-5
LA Dodgers: 5-6
Cleveland: 4-7
Detroit: 2-9
Five teams were expected to crack 90 victories based on the posted win totals. Those five were a combined 34-45 heading into Sunday's action. Sharps have largely been going against those teams because the public loves to back them. A 50/50 mark would have been lucrative. Hitting 57% with mostly underdogs is a BIG profit scenario needless to say.
If teams like Boston and New York (either New York team) are going through choppy waters and playing .500 baseball, then the sharps are happy.
Let's turn things around and look at the actual division leaders. The teams who have been winning were largely non-public teams not expected to do well this season:
DIVISION LEADERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY
AL East: Baltimore (66 projected wins)
AL Central: Chicago White Sox (78 projected wins)
AL West: Oakland (76 projected wins)
NL East: Florida (69 projected wins)
NL Central: St. Louis (77 projected wins)
NL West: Arizona (86 projected wins)
Out of that group, only Arizona was expected to break .500! I know many pundits and fans who expected Baltimore to be horrible this year, the White Sox to struggle, the A's to be overmatched, the Marlins to be a laughingstock, the Cards to be doomed, and, well, Arizona was pretty well respected. The point is, five of those six teams weren't supposed to be winners this year. The public had no expectations for these teams at all. You could have made a lot of money riding them in these first few weeks.
Two key points here:
It's only two weeks. All of the teams discussed so far are fully capable of eventually playing to their projected form. Oddsmakers wouldn't miss THAT many teams by THAT much! I do expect many of the projected contenders to start playing well, and many of the projected flops to cool off.
Sharps make most of their money going against public teams rather than trying to guess which non-public teams are going to get hot. Going against Detroit or the Yankees is a fairly common strategy. Hoping Baltimore gets hot isn't. The sharps will "value bet" lesser teams if they think the price is right. Their focus will be in going against the overpriced public teams though.
I'm seeing a lot of big smiles from the baseball sharps so far. I mentioned last week that these guys have had good success so far going against the big name teams. Many of the value bets are also coming through too. If you play a lot of action (which sharps do), going 8-6 or 7-7 with a lot of dogs is a big day. It's easy to have days like that when so many teams are hanging the .500 mark.
Consider:
Heading into Sunday's action, eight of the 30 teams had EXACTLY .500 records through their first 10 or 12 games.
Nine more teams were within a game of .500 with records of 6-5 or 5-6. That's a total of 17 teams, more than half the majors, who were basically splitting out all of their games. Splits are great for sharps because they focus on underdogs.
There are only a handful of teams with extreme records. The sharps figured out quickly to stay out of the way of Arizona and St. Louis on the high end...and to avoid backing San Francisco on the low end. Nobody wanted anything to do with the Giants at first, though that mindset is changing a bit. St. Louis surprised some people. Nobody was stubborn about betting against them during their hot streak though.
It's easy to sidestep the potholes when there are only a few worth noticing. Thus far, it's been one of the easiest "player's" markets I've seen in quite a while. The proven strategies are working. After a demanding year in the football, and a frustrating stretch of college baskets, the sharps are delighted things are returning to form. Oh, I haven't even mentioned totals yet. The sharps have been cleaning up on those too.
How has baseball been going for you? Are you smiling like the sharps? Or, do you keep laying odds with the big name teams assuming they're going to start winning? Have you been riding Detroit into the sewer every day because they were "due" to win? Did you lose at big odds on Sabathia and Carmona for the Indians against the A's a couple of days ago? The public lost those games. The sharps won them.
Here's what you should be doing:
Go against the high dollar franchises until they start winning. Slow starts for teams like that don't last two weeks. They last six weeks or two months. Then the powers start playing like powers and surge toward high win totals. I think you'll still make money over the next several weeks as a rule going against the powers.
Keep riding the lesser name teams that are playing well. Yes, they'll cool off...but they can keep winning while cooling off. A 9-3 team might slow down to 7-5 over the next 12 games, or 12-8 the next 20. If they're not expensive to take, that makes money. I've got my eye on a few teams who are likely to have solid, productive runs like that.
Don't back big name pitchers who are struggling. The public has been really bad about that. Sharps earned HUGE payoffs going against Sabathia and Oswalt Friday night. There are other guys who are either battling injuries or still finding their form who offer value as go-against pitchers.
Look for young pitchers the public doesn't know about who are posting high strikeout numbers. That's the single best stat for finding good investments. If the public hasn't heard of a guy, they assume he's not very good. They've paid repeatedly for that mistake this season. You should be trying to find the true value guys at cheap prices.
Study the forecasts so you know the game time temperatures. I can't believe how many public wagerers keep betting on Overs in cold weather games
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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