Announcement

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:08 AM

Six-pack for Thursday

-- Daniel Ortmeier's double to deep center in bottom of 9th gave Giants 1-0 win vs Padres- they take series 2-1. Jonathan Sanchez pitched 6.2 shutout innings for Giants.

-- Phillies played an awful game, making four errors in first three innings of 8-2 loss to Mets, ending their win streak vs New York at nine games. Kendrick needed 71 pitches to get just seven outs as Philly's starter.

-- Cubs, Pirates played 27 innings in their first two meetings this year; Bay homered off Kerry Wood in 9th to send game into extra innings, where Chicago survived in 15 innings, 6-4.

-- Bronx-Kansas City game was played in mud and slop; for some reason, they didn't put drying agent on infield until it was entirely covered in standing water. Royals are 6-2, as Hillman is a week away from clinching Manager of the Year.

-- Tigers got first win as Marcus Thomas turned tide with a homer into Monster Seats. Bonderman needed 96 pitches to finish five innings, but got the win.

-- Spunky A's socred four in ninth to edge Blue Jays 6-3 and get over .500 at 5-4. Rookie Greg Smith allowed just two hits in six innings in his major league debut.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:08 AM

Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but..........

13) Before we rip John Calipari too much for end of Monday’s game, realize that the two most hotly-discussed strategical questions debated among coaches are:
a) Whether to foul when up 3 in last 0:10, and
b) Whether to guard inbounder on a full-court pass situation at the end of a game (aka, the Laettner shot vs. Kentucky).

12) If you asked 100 guys who get paid to coach college hoop, the answers would be close to 50-50 on both scenarios. This one ended badly for Memphis, so Calipari will take the heat, but maybe instead of that, his biggest regret might be not calling timeout before the play, to emphasize exactly what he wanted defensively.

11) Bill Self’s base salary is $1.4M; with incentives, he earned around $1.8M this season; not bad, but half of what Oklahoma State is going to offer him.

10) I’m watching Kansas kids cut down the nets Monday, and I’m thinking, "This is pretty cool for the ladder company. Free advertising." The thought isn’t in my head for two seconds before a graphic appears on screen:, "Company X, the official ladder company of the NCAA Tournament."

God forbid the kids who play ever make any money off this, but the NCAA has an official ladder company. Hypocrites.

9) Rumors are around that Atlanta Falcons are interested in drafting Louisville’s Brian Brohm as their QB of future, which is more than a little weird, since coach most responsible for Brohm being a 1st-round QB is the most hated man in Falcon history-- former coach, noted gypsy Bobby Petrino.

8) Fausto Carmona threw 95 pitches in six innings Monday; Jake Westbrook threw 96 pitches Tuesday, and pitched a complete game. I’m guessing in this day and age that most complete games are a product of the skipper having reduced or no confidence in his bullpen. Tribe bullpen blew 9th inning lead in Carmona’s start Monday.

7) Angels’ streak of 163 wins when leading after eight innings ended Tuesday, when Hafner hit long homer off Speier to win game for Tribe. Halo closer Rodriguez is now hampered by two sprained ankles; with Lackey and Escobar also out injured, the AL West is up for grabs early in the season.

6) Mets lost 5-2 in home opener to Phillies, in part because lefty specialist Feliciano wasn’t at ballpark in time to pitch the seventh inning, when Mets blew 2-0 lead. He had an excused absence to go to Puerto Rico, and his 6am return flight got cancelled. Not to kick a dog when he’s down, but Mets are now 8-16 in their last 24 games, going back to last September- they’ve lost nine of ten to Phillies. Why would a guy need to go home so early in season? Why would he be allowed to go?

5) Ben Hansbrough, younger brother of Tyler, is transferring from Mississippi State, a significant loss for Bulldogs, since he averaged 33.5 mpg, 10.5 pg, shot 35.8% from arc, 5.8 assists/ game. He has couple of years left to play. Will be interesting to see where he winds up. Better not be Carolina.

4) #7 seed is 14-12 in last 26 series vs #2 seed in NHL playoffs.

3) Visiting teams won three of four games on first night of the NHL postseason, erasing six months of work in one night, as they grab home ice with a first game win. Penguins were only home team to hold home ice Wednesday.

2) Eldrick Woods’ average first round score at The Masters: 72.5. It goes down after that. A lot.

1) ESPN made a big fuss when it hiried Bob Knight as a studio analyst for the NCAAs, and he was better than I thought he’d be, but then, late Monday night, I seek ESPNews out, trying to find out what Knight thought about end of the game, strategy-wise. What do I get? Jay Bilas and Richard Phelps yelling at each other like they were trying out for PTI, while Knight sat there, waiting his turn. When he finally got to talk, Dick Vitale talked over him.

SHUT UP ALREADY!!!!! Let the guy with knowledge talk..

ESPN promotes the hell out of Knight, then when we wanted to hear what he had to say, they don’t let him talk, .Not good.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:10 AM

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Terms "hot/cold pitchers" is relative, since for the next week or so, it refers to last year, Please keep that in mind.

Hot Pitchers

-- Brewers won five of last seven Villanueva starts.
-- Cubs won eight of last ten Hill starts.
-- Cardnals won seven of last ten Wainwright starts.
-- Giants won six of last eight Correia starts.

-- Mariners won four of last five Batista starts.
-- White Sox won six of last eight Contreras starts. Hernandez is 2-0, 3.86 in two starts this season.
-- Trachsel has 2.37 RA in his last three starts. Rangers are 6-2 in last eight Gabbard starts. Millwood has 2.57 RA in his first two starts this season.
-- Eveland allowed one run in seven IP in beating Indians 6-1 in his first start for Oakland. Jays are 9-4 in last 13 Marcum starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Reds lost six of last nine Harang starts.
-- Pirates lost five of last seven Morris starts.
-- Maine has 6.43 RA in his last four starts. Phillies are 4-7 in last eleven Eaton starts.
-- Hendrickson has 7.84 RA in two starts this season. Perez is
0-1, 5.00 in two starts this season.
-- Braves lost Hudson's last four road starts. Francis has a 5.59 RA in his last five starts.

-- Tampa Rays lost six of last eight Jackson starts.
-- Loewen is 2-0, 7.24 in his last three road starts.
-- Red Sox lost four of last five Wakefield starts. Tigers are 2-7 in last nine Robertson starts.
-- Bronx lost three of Pettitte's last four starts.
-- Gale lost 4-3 to Twins last week, in his first start since 2004.

Pitchers vs Teams
-- Villaneuva shut Reds out for seven IP in his only '07 start against them. Harang was 1-1, 3.42 in three '07 starts againt Milwaukee.
-- Hill was 1-1, 5.50 in three starts vs Pirates LY. Morris had an RA of 10.12 in two starts vs Cubs LY.
-- Maine had 2.75 RA in three starts against Phillies LY. Mets were 0-4 LY when Eaton started against them.
-- Road team won both of Hudson's '07 starts vs Colorado.

-- Contreras threw CG shutout vs Twins last spring, then gave up 14 runs in 10.2 IP in his last two starts against them.
-- Wakefield lost 7-2 to Detroit LY, allowing five ER in seven IP Robertson was 1-1, 5.40 against Boston LY.
-- Gabbard was winning pitcher when Texas crushed Orioles in first game of twinbill LY, 30-3.
-- Pettitte was 1-1, 3.29 in two starts against Royals LY
-- Marcum allowed six runs in 3.2 IP in only '07 start vs A's.

Totals
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Reds' games.
-- Five of last seven Colorado games stayed under total
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Pittsburgh games this season.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in Florida games this season.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies' last four games.
-- Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under total.

-- Four of last five Tampa games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Boston games.
-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Oakland games.
-- Orioles' last three games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five White Sox games went over the total.
-- Eight of first nine Bronx games stayed under total.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won last four games, scoring 28 runs.
-- Marlins won four of their last five games, scoring 34 runs.
-- Rockies won last three games: 2-1/4-3/12-5.
-- Phillies won nine of their last ten games against the Mets.
-- Brewers won six of their first eight games.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last eight games.
-- Arizona won last six games, scoring 43 runs.

-- A's, won four of their last five games.
-- Orioles won last six games, scoring 38 runs. Rangers are 3-0 in game after a loss this season.
-- Royals won last three games, allowing three runs; they won six of their first eight games.
-- White Sox won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost four of their last five games, losing last two games in 12-15 innings.
-- Braves lost last three games: 2-1/4-3/12-5.
-- Mets lost four of their last six games, they also lost last nine of their last ten against the Phillies.
-- Nationals lost last six games, allowing 41 runs.
-- Giants lost six of their first nine games; they scored total of six runs in their three wins.

-- Red Sox lost four of last five games. Detroit is 1-7 to open the season- they scored twelve runs in last four games.
-- Rays lost four in a row, scoring total of seven runs.
-- Bronx is 2-4 in last six games, scoring total of 17 runs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:11 AM

Major League Baseball – Additional

MLB

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Over is 4-1 in Harangs last 5 road starts vs. Brewers.
Reds are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.
Reds are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

Atlanta at Colorado
Over is 4-0 in Francis' last 4 starts vs. Braves.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Braves are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Colorado.

Chi. Cubs at Pittsburgh
Cubs are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Florida at Washington
Over is 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings in Washington.
Over is 14-5-2 in the last 21 meetings.
Marlins are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Washington.

Philadelphia at NY Mets
Phillies are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in New York.
Phillies are 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.
Phillies are 4-0 in Eatons last 4 starts vs. Mets.
Mets are 5-1 in Maines last 6 starts vs. Phillies.
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in New York.
Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.

St. Louis at San Francisco
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

Seattle at Tampa Bay
Under is 22-6-1 in the last 29 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Mariners are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.

Detroit at Boston
Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.
Red Sox are 5-1 in Wakefields last 6 home starts vs. Tigers.
Under is 5-1-1 in Wakefields last 7 home starts vs. Tigers.
Under is 4-1 in Wakefields last 5 starts vs. Tigers.
Over is 4-1 in Robertsons last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Red Sox are 8-3 in Wakefields last 11 starts vs. Tigers.
Tigers are 13-28 in the last 41 meetings.
Tigers are 8-20 in the last 28 meetings in Boston.
Tigers are 2-5 in Robertsons last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.

Oakland at Toronto
Athletics are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.
Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Over is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings in Toronto.
Athletics are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Baltimore at Texas
Rangers are 4-0 in Millwoods last 4 home starts vs. Orioles.
Rangers are 5-0 in Millwoods last 5 starts vs. Orioles.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Texas.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NY Yankees at Kansas City
Yankees are 4-0 in Pettittes last 4 road starts vs. Royals.
Yankees are 7-0 in Pettittes last 7 starts vs. Royals.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
Yankees are 48-13 in the last 61 meetings.
Yankees are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Kansas City.

Minnesota at Chi. White Sox
Over is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.
Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
Twins are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
Twins are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:12 AM

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA Games

Denver, Warriors are tied for last playoff spot, with Nuggets holding tie-breaker, so huge game for Golden State squad that is 0-6-1 vs spread in game after their last seven wins. Nuggets are 2-3 in last five games, Warriors 7-8 in last fifteen games-- they lost two of three against Nuggets this season.

Utah won seven of last eight games, covering last four, they've held last two opponents to 64-66 points. Dallas won, covered four of last five games, with four of those five staying under total. Home side won all three Dallas-Utah games this season.

Lakers won four of last five games, as they try to hold off the Suns and get #3 seed in West- they beat Clippers three times this season, by 21-37-18 points. Clips have Brand back, but he is playing limited minutes; they lost sixteen of last eighteen.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:14 AM

National Basketball Association – Additional

NBA

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver at Golden State
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Utah at Dallas
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas.
Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Jazz are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Home team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
Jazz are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Dallas.

L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Lakers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:16 AM

National Hockey League – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE (41-32-0-9, 91 pts.) at DETROIT (54-21-0-7, 115 pts.) - 4/10/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-8 ATS (+27.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
NASHVILLE is 51-46 ATS (+111.4 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 15-9 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 15-9-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
13 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (41-29-0-12, 94 pts.) at MONTREAL (47-25-0-10, 104 pts.) - 4/10/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 44-80 ATS (+142.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest this season.
BOSTON is 41-41 ATS (+86.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 18-15 ATS (+39.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
BOSTON is 18-13 ATS (+32.3 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 14-11 ATS (+32.7 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 20-4 (+15.3 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 20-4-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (45-30-0-7, 97 pts.) at ANAHEIM (47-27-0-8, 102 pts.) - 4/10/2008, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 19-32 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games in April games since 1996.
DALLAS is 53-58 ATS (-35.7 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 28-13 ATS (+9.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 59-36 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 140-130 ATS (+308.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 17-12 ATS (+30.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
DALLAS is 20-12 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 25-12 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
DALLAS is 22-12 ATS (+7.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
DALLAS is 18-14 ATS (+33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 27-17 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 15-9 (+5.5 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 15-9-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday April 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (42-29-0-11, 95 pts.) at WASHINGTON (43-31-0-8, 94 pts.) - 4/11/2008, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:18 AM

National Hockey League - Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet

Thursday, April 10

First Round
Game One
Series Tied 0-0

Nashville at Detroit, 7:05 ET

Nashville:
8-12 SU playing with double revenge
1-5 SU playing with 3+ days rest

Detroit:
30-8 SU after scoring 3+ goals BB games
27-8 SU after a win by 2+ goals

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Round
Game One
Series Tied 0-0

Boston at Montreal, 7:05 ET

Boston:
7-2 SU off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival
12-7 SU in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses

Montreal:
2-7 SU at home off a home win by 2+ goals
3-9 SU at home off a home win

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Round
Game One
Series Tied 0-0

Dallas at Anaheim, 10:05 ET

Dallas:
11-0 SU playing with double revenge
13-6 SU Away revenging 1 goal loss

Anaheim:
18-8 SU as a home favorite of -200 or less
19-7 SU off a home win

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:19 AM

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2008 NHL playoffs
Opening Round

Detroit won seven of last nine games; they're 9-3 in last dozen games vs Nashville, winning seven of last eight played in this building. Five of their last seven games stayed under the total. Predators won five of last six games, with only loss 1-0 in OT in this arena ten days ago.

Montreal went 8-0 vs Bruins this year, and won last 11 games vs Boston, with four of last five going over total. Canadiens are 7-1 in last eight games, winning last three while allowing just a single goal. Boston lost three of last four games, with four of last five staying under total.

Dallas Stars lost five of their last seven visits to Anaheim- they are 5-3 vs Ducks this season, splitting pair on Pond. Anaheim won three in row, eight of last ten games. Under is 10-2-4 in the Ducks' last sixteen games. Stars won last three games, all by 4-2 scores, after losing nine of previous eleven contests.

San Jose lost last three games, after winning 18 of previous 20; they're 0-4 in last four vs Calgary, all one-goal losses. Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 Flame games. Calgary is 4-2 in its last six visits to this rink; visitor won four of five series games this season. Last night, Sharks outshot Flames 39-23, but Yelle had couple goals and won seven of 11 faceoffs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:20 AM

National Hockey League – Additional

NHL

Thursday, April 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston at Montreal

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings.
Bruins are 16-35-1 in the last 52 meetings.
Bruins are 7-19-1 in the last 27 meetings in Montreal.

Nashville at Detroit

Favorite is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
Home team is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
Predators are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings.
Predators are 6-24-2 in the last 32 meetings in Detroit.

Calgary at San Jose

Over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in San Jose.

Dallas at Anaheim

Home team is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
Under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 meetings.
Stars are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Anaheim.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 05:27 AM

National Hockey League – Previews and Picks

NHL

Thursday, April 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHL ~ Previews and Picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NHL playoffs: Eastern Conference series previews & picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston (8) vs. Montreal (1)

Regular season series: 8-0 Montreal

Series odds: -315 Montreal, Boston +285

This season's been full of surprises for both of these teams. Nobody expected Guy Carbonneau's Canadiens to be heading into the postseason and it's hard to know what you'll get from the Bruins from one game to the next , sometimes dominant, others deplorable.

Montreal has absolutely owned Boston this year, taking all eight meetings between the clubs and it's hard to argue there's any reason for that to change now. Montreal has an excellent coaching staff that knows the ins and outs of playoff hockey, which has this team doing the little things that make all the difference this year.

The Canadiens block shots and kill penalties as well as any team in the league and keep things simple at even strength. And you know the coaching staff is doing something right when it can get Alexei Kovalev back at the top of his game. If captain Saku Koivu is able to return from his broken foot, it'll be a big boost for Montreal, but don't hold your breath.

Meanwhile, Boston can frustrate teams with Claude Julien's tactical, trapping game plan when everything falls in place. The problem is they haven't been able to keep that composure consistently.

The Bruins reeled off six straight wins in one of their better stretches of the season back in February, but then dropped nine of their next dozen. They also have major injury issues. The team hopes to have Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron back sooner rather than later, but that might be wishful thinking even though Bergeron was medically cleared on Monday.

Key handicapping note: Six of the eight meetings between these two teams played over the total, all of which were set at 5 1/2 goals.

Pick: Montreal in six games.

N.Y. Rangers (5) at New Jersey (4)

Regular season series: 7-1 New York

Series odds: New York -115, New Jersey +105

If you're strictly a numbers guy, you'd see New York's 7-1 record against New Jersey and promptly drop a mortgage payment on the Devils. That's where you could be very, very wrong.

Numbers only tell part of the story when it comes to these rival teams and this could end up being the best series we see in the first round.

It took him a while, but Tom Renney was finally able to instill some defensive responsibility with his New York Rangers, who allowed the fourth fewest goals per game in the league this year. The club also has balance in its forward lines with Brandon Dubinsky, Sean Avery and Ryan Callahan providing support for the superstars and decent defensive pairings at the back.

New York's major problem is its power play which converted just 16.3 percent of its opportunities. Basically, it's a case of having too many ballerinas and not enough bouncers when they're up a man. Unless the Rangers can get shots from the point and traffic in front of Martin Brodeur, they're going to be in a world of trouble.

This edition of the Devils is a lot more exciting than the trap-crazy teams we saw years ago. It's not that no-nonsense head coach Brent Sutter doesn't preach defense first, he's just smart enough to know that he'd be stupid not to let a speedy, skilled lineup like this open it up when the opportunity presents itself. Plus, with Brodeur back there, they can afford to gamble every now and then.

The series shakes down to be an absolute seven-game war that could go either way depending on the bounces, with the winning team going a long way in the playoffs.

Key handicapping note: The under is 20-6-6 over the last 32 meetings between these teams.

Pick: Rangers in seven games.

Philadelphia (6) at Washington (3)

Regular season series: 2-2 tie

Series odds: -145 Washington, Philadelphia +135

You can't fault the Washington Capitals for ending up as the Eastern Conference's No. 3 seed after a great run down the stretch, but there's no need to handicap them like they're one of the league's elite teams either.

What they do have is a couple of the league's most exciting young players in Alexander Semin, Mike Green, and of course, Alexander Ovechkin. After such a fantastic finish to the regular season, there's a whole lot to be excited about for Capitals bettors.

But are they ready' Did they peak too early just to get into the postseason? Do they have the playoff experience? Will the goaltending hold up? Are they a team that can play hard-nosed, tight-checking playoff hockey? I'm not so sure about any of these questions.

Granted, the Flyers may have to answer some of the same questions themselves, but don't overlook the fact that they did win seven of their last nine to get into the dance, so they're pretty hot too.

What really sets John Stevens' Flyers apart from the Capitals is their grit, depth and special teams play. Philly had six 20-goal scorers in the regular season, the second-best power play in the league, and still managed to scare the bejeesus out of everybody they played.

Key handicapping note: The freewheeling Capitals have allowed just three goals over their last four games, while the Flyers shut out the Penguins and Devils in their final two games of the regular season.

Pick: Flyers in six games.

Ottawa (7) at Pittsburgh (2)

Regular season series: 3-1 Ottawa

Series odds: -255 Pittsburgh, Ottawa +235

Where did it all go wrong for the Ottawa Senators? That's probably one of the first questions Sens coach Bryan Murray will have to answer six games from now.

Ottawa looked poised for another run at the Cup by starting the year 15-2-0, but the success was short lived. From there the Sens ran into a couple key injuries, suffered through a starting goaltender soap opera, fired a head coach, may have contaminated the team's locker room, and eventually slipped into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth.

Things don't look good. You won't see Ottawa captain Daniel Alfredsson or sparkplug Mike Fisher in the first round after both went down with injuries late last week against the Maple Leafs. That completely bungles any chemistry the forward lines were clinging to.

Can't say the same thing about the Pens. They have two deadly forward lines with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marian Hossa and Petr Sykora flying around and a power play that's good enough to steal a series with Sergei Gonchar manning the point. That's the stuff everybody mentions when you're talking about the Pens.

What you don't hear very often is how tough this team is and how much it has improved defensively. Pittsburgh has enough veterans to make sure the kids know what they're getting into as the team starts the second season.

Key handicapping note: Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 11 opponents to two or fewer goals.

Pick: Pittsburgh in six games.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHL playoffs: Western Conference series previews & picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nashville Predators (8) vs. Detroit Red Wings (1)

Series price: Nashville +440, Detroit -480

Season series: Red Wings 5-3 (two wins came in OT or shootout)

When you look on paper, Wings fans are saying "see you in the second round." Unfortunately, Wings fans should know better than anyone that games aren't played on paper.

The Wings won the President's Trophy as the NHL's best team this season and everywhere you look in the stats, they rank in the top five. That includes scoring (3), goals against (1), power play (3), and ATS (against the spread) winnings (3).

The Wings have 10 players with at least 30 points this year led by Pavel Datsyuk (98 points) and they roll four strong lines at you all night. The blueline is anchored by possibly the best in the game, Niklas Lidstrom, and the recent pickup of Brad Stuart at the trade deadline won't hurt matters once he returns from a hand injury.

But this Nashville team is dangerous. They have strong goaltending for one. Dan Ellis and Chris Mason may have limited playoff experience, but Ellis led the league in save percentage this season (.924) and he finished third in shutouts with six.

Another reason to worry about the Preds is their physical play. These guys love to hit. They don't complicate matters on offense and they just throw the puck into the corner and pound you until it squirts out.

The third reason they're dangerous is they are the No. 2 penalty killing team in the league. If they can limit Detroit's production on the power play ' and Detroit will get its ****** , they have a chance.

The X-factor in this series is Detroit's injuries. Stuart, Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby are all banged up and the team recently lost a hugely improved Thomas Kopecky for the season.

Key handicapping factor: Detroit is 1-7 on the puckline this season on three or more days of rest. The first game goes in Detroit on Thursday, four days after their last game of the season.

Pick: Red Wings in six games

Calgary Flames (7) vs. San Jose Sharks (2)

Series price: Calgary +275, San Jose -300

Season series: 4-4 (two Calgary wins came in overtime)

For those who believe the Flames will advance to the second round, the theory goes: hit the Sharks, beat the Sharks.

It seems that some feel just because San Jose has speed, it doesn't have grit. Not so, and if Calgary thinks it can beat the Sharks into submission, this series won't last long.

San Jose can flat-out skate and the acquisition of Brian Campbell at the trade deadline added a two-way defenseman who can kickstart the breakout, something the Sharks needed.

Joe Thornton leads the 10th-best power play in the league and the Sharks own the best penalty killing unit that can also score on you in a hurry with one misguided pass. Perhaps no team scores better in transition than the Sharks also, who use their speed and long passes through the neutral zone to catch teams on their heels.

The Flames bring some confidence into this series knowing they won the last three meetings with San Jose. You'd think they would beat the Flames by keeping the score low but the two most recent meetings saw 16 combined goals.

Calgary has some firepower with guys like Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay, so you don't want to get careless in your own end. The Flames actually average more goals per game this year with 2.8 compared to the Sharks' 2.6.

This series could come down to goaltending with Mikka Kiprusoff for Calgary and Evgeni Nabokov for San Jose. Both played 77 games this season and had eerily similar numbers, with the slight nod going to Nabokov due shutouts (six) and save percentage (.910).

Key handicapping factor: Don't get too excited if San Jose jumps out to a fast start and you bet the Sharks. No team has more losses (8) when leading after one period. The good news? No team has more wins when leading after two (35).

Pick: Sharks seven games

Colorado Avalanche (6) vs. Minnesota Wild (3)

Series price: Colorado +100, Minnesota -110

Season series: 5-3 Minnesota (one shootout win for Colorado, one for Minny)

In mid-March I traveled to Minnesota to see the Wild take on the Avs, which I discussed in this blog. Based on what I saw, we can expect more of two things in the playoffs in this series: unders and home victories.

The home team went 7-1 in this series this season and the under went 6-2 and it's with good reason.

Minnesota has some of the most passionate fans of any sport I have ever seen. There were more jerseys per fan in the building than you'll likely find in the league and this is an arena built for hockey that can blow your eardrums out after goals. From what I've heard, Denver's Pepsi Center isn't far behind when it comes to cheering on the home team.

Minnesota rides the crowd to play its defensive style to perfection and it's no surprise the under is 12-18 in Wild home games compared to 18-17 in away games. It's tough to get a sniff around the net and Niklas Backstrom makes more saves than not when you get a chance.

The best player on the ice for Colorado, besides Joe Sakic, was Ryan Smyth. It seemed every time he was on the ice, he made something happen and the Avs need more of that. He's one of those guys who drives you crazy because he loses the puck five times in a rush, but it somehow always ends up back on his stick.

Teams have been all over Peter Forsberg , who returned around the trade deadline , and he hasn't looked like the old Forsberg since his return. That means the Avs need offense to come from other places and youngster Paul Stastny will have to come into this series playoff-ready.

Colorado has the third-worst power play in the league and Minnesota has the seventh-best, so the Avs can't afford to get into penalty trouble. Jose Theodore needs a huge series to help his club out because the blueline is not the strength for this club.

Minnesota also got some bad news when it lost Nick Schultz to an appendectomy recently. That means the Wild are without two of their top defenseman, the other being Kurtis Foster.

Stick to home teams and unders in this series and you should come out OK.

Key handicapping factor: The last eight meetings in this series in Minnesota have gone under the total.

Pick: Minnesota seven games

Dallas Stars (5) vs. Anaheim Ducks (4)

Series price: Dallas +190, Anaheim -210

Season series: 5-3 (one shootout win by Anaheim)

It's not often you see a team favored this heavily to win a 4-5 series. It's also not often a team as good as the Ducks finish fourth in the conference.

The Ducks started slowly to the year after traveling to London for a season opening series with the Kings. The miles from that and a long Stanley Cup run seemed to catch up to them. Then Scott Neidermayer came out of retirement in the second half and Teemu Selanne returned too.

Once again, everyone in hockey circles seem to be labeling Anaheim as the scariest team in hockey and it finished the season on an 8-2 run. It's almost not fair.

The Ducks have two of the best defensemen in the league in Chris Pronger and Neidermayer. They have scorers for days and Jean-Sebastien Giguere is a former Conn Smythe winner. Oh yeah , and the Ducks are huge and nasty as heck to boot.

But playoffs are exciting because of the unexpected upsets and this is one I have a hunch about. The Stars didn't beat the Ducks in the season series for no reason and this is one opponent I'd be nervous of in the first round.

Dallas is a sound defensive club with a tough goaltender in Marty Turco. The Stars also added some offensive spunk when they picked up a former Conn Smythe winner of their own, Brad Richards, in one of the biggest trade deadline deals.

Richards is questionable for Game 1 with an upper body injury, along with Mike Ribeiro, who should be back after suffering from the flu. They'll need both players to be at their best to play into May.

Dallas has a better power play and a better penalty killing unit than Anaheim this season. The Stars have also made far more money for bettors at 42-40 ATS. But this one will come down to who wants it more.

Anaheim comes in as the hotter club with an 8-2 record, but Dallas comes in a little angry. The Stars finished the season with a fiery 4-2 win over San Jose and they should carry that edge into Game 1.

Key handicapping factor: Anaheim has allowed 1.8 goals over its last 10. Dallas has allowed 3.1 over the same span.

Pick: Dallas in six games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 08:19 AM

National Hockey League - Dunkel Index

NHL
Dunkel Index

Dallas at Anaheim
The Stars limped down the stretch, dropping six of their last nine games, and open against an Anaheim team that went 27-13-0 at home this season. The Ducks are the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has Anaheim favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, APRIL 10

Game 9-10: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.412; Detroit 11.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-260); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-260); Under

Game 11-12: Boston at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.021; Montreal 11.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-200); Under

Game 13-14: Dallas at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.584; Anaheim 12.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165); Under

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 08:19 AM

Major League Baseball - Dunkel Index

MLB
Dunkel Index

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
The Twins were able to rough up Chicago pitching yesterday in a 12-5 win and turn around to face Jose Contreras, who allowed 10 hits, 10 walks and four earned runs in five innings of work against Detroit last week. Minnesota starter Livan Hernandez has been sharp, picking up two wins in each of his starts with a 3.86 ERA. The Twins are the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has Minnesota favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, APRIL 10

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.987; Milwaukee (Villanueva) 15.530
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under

Game 903-904: Atlanta at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.484; Colorado (Francis) 15.199
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hill) 15.003; Pittsburgh (Morris) 14.694
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Over

Game 907-908: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Hendrickson) 14.969; Washington (Perez) 13.882
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+115); Over

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Eaton) 14.500; NY Mets (Maine) 15.708
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Under

Game 911-912: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.841; San Francisco (Correia) 14.131
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under

Game 913-914: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Batista) 15.035; Tampa Bay (Jackson) 14.242
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under

Game 915-916: Detroit at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 13.919; Boston (Wakefield) 15.040
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Under

Game 917-918: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 15.678; Toronto (Marcum) 16.340
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Loewen) 15.354; Texas (Millwood) 15.735
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Over

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.720; White Sox (Contreras) 14.740
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.054; Kansas City (Bale) 15.586
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Under

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 04-10-2008, 08:20 AM

National Basketball Association - Dunkel Index

NBA
Dunkel Index

Utah at Dallas
The Mavericks have won four of their last five, but run into a Utah team tonight that has won four straight and seven of its last eight. The Jazz are the underdog pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Dallas favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, APRIL 10

Game 501-502: Denver at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.587; Golden State 126.966
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5 1/2; 235 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 240
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Under

Game 503-504: Utah at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 125.894; Dallas 127.014
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4); Under

Game 505-506: LA Lakers at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.171; LA Clippers 109.193
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 14; 215
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+15 1/2); Over

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

Thursday Trends and Indexes 04/10

Thursday Trends and Indexes 04/10

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment